Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

i do think it's worth taking a deeper dive into the 'we just need this to burn through our population and kill a lot more people quickly so we can get back to business as usual' strategy.

full disclosure: i'm formulating a 'WATSON WENT ROGUE' snarky reply and i think this is probably my best opp to put it to use. 

[Eastwood 4394]

27 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What a ridiculous thing to say. "Burning through" is the worst thing that can happen to our economy. Leaving aside the death that would entail (roughly 1mm), just the massive loss of productivity would be catastrophic. Europe is reopening to tourism and back to work because they had a modicum of discipline and consistent leadership over a 90 day period. 

Also, the way their health care system works, those who need to be hospitalized in Europe for COVID won't have to face possible life-changing hospital bills that have the potential to bankrupt them. We're probably about 3-6 months away from articles being published about the crushing individual financial cost of a COVID stint in the ICU. The hospital bills from the earliest stays should be hitting mailboxes soon.

[Captainant 27694]

2 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Also, the way their health care system works, those who need to be hospitalized in Europe for COVID won't have to face possible life-changing hospital bills that have the potential to bankrupt them. We're probably about 3-6 months away from articles being published about the crushing individual financial cost of a COVID stint in the ICU. The hospital bills from the earliest stays should be hitting mailboxes soon.

Toss that in with increased unemployment benefits ending this month with no indication of extension and the eviction protections starting to expire... It's gonna get real ugly soon.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

5 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Also, the way their health care system works, those who need to be hospitalized in Europe for COVID won't have to face possible life-changing hospital bills that have the potential to bankrupt them. We're probably about 3-6 months away from articles being published about the crushing individual financial cost of a COVID stint in the ICU. The hospital bills from the earliest stays should be hitting mailboxes soon.

you have to weigh the negatives with the positive: freedom.

[Pato del Muerto 52538]

1 hour ago, stone oak said:

Just FYI, you are just as liable for having them come in to the office in the first place. No one is trying to kill off the olds, we are trying not to lose our jobs.

 

Close your fucking office if you have a problem.

Or, the employee could act in a responsible manner and call to report symptoms and ask how to proceed. 

1 hour ago, Lat22 said:

Closing the economy does not make the virus go away. Masks do not make the virus go away.  It will never go away.  It needs to burn through so we can have herd immunity. It kills fewer than .5%.  Of course everybody knows this, but that's not what this is about.

If the Lancet study has merit, the antibodies fade like with other Coronas and there is no such thing as herd immunity or vaccine.  It might be that this thing goes though the pop a time or two to kill off those seemingly more susceptible, then settles in as just another virus in the rotation that kills a few thousand a year. 

[XYZ 2154]

5 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Also, the way their health care system works, those who need to be hospitalized in Europe for COVID won't have to face possible certain life-changing hospital bills that have the potential to will bankrupt them.

FIFY. It’s going to suck. I expect that anybody landing at an ICU will get a $1-2 million bill. People being hospitalized but not in the ICU will probably get a low six figures bill.

[Brisketexan 105181]

Also, a reminder that NY had ZERO Covid deaths for the first time this Saturday:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/new-york-city-coronavirus-deaths_n_5f0bae78c5b67a80bc09449f?utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=hp_fb_pages&utm_source=main_fb&ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000063&fbclid=IwAR0oA-yHJ2EyEqdjD6Ahpz_YFMnho1dWpImTAWm1_QZa0-7pmF4iG68UZ_Y

Let's think through the whole thing.  Did NY get caught with its pants down early on?  Yep.  Did Cuomo and de Blasio make SEVERAL serious (and deadly) mistakes in their initial handling of the crisis?  YEP.  New York's early handling of COVID was not great, and there were many cautionary tales to take from that.

BUT.....NY eventually came up with a pretty solid plan to stomp down transmission, which resulted in crushing hospital admissions and deaths.  The proof is in the pudding -- zero deaths on Saturday.  ZERO.  In one of the most populous states in the country.

To go with a football analogy, NY came out flat and let the other team run up a 21-0 lead in the 1st quarter, while NY barely even mustered a play for positive yardage.  They held the line in the 2nd quarter....and they came back with a damned good game plan in the second half to take a lead.

Critics of NY focus solely on the 1st quarter failure.  From which, by the way, we have much to learn.  But they completely look past the halftime adjustments THAT SHOW US EXACTLY HOW YOU PLAY TO BEAT THIS VIRUS.  All we want is for the rest of the country to say "huh, post-halftime NY seems like a pretty good model to follow, let's try to do that here."  That's it.  That's all we want.

But.....we won't.  Because....reasons.

[Brisketexan 105181]

6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It might be that this thing goes though the pop a time or two to kill off those seemingly more susceptible, then settles in as just another virus in the rotation that kills a few thousand a year. 

Oh, that prompts Brisketexan's not-so-bold prediction: we are going to see a significant upsurge in flu cases and deaths in the coming years.  Why?  Because, without a trace of irony, the "it's just a bad flu!" crowd will transition to "I'm not going to poison my body with a flu vaccine - the flu isn't even as bad as the coronavirus, why would I get a vaccine for something that isn't even that bad?"  You can take that prediction, place a bet on it in Vegas, and go ahead and make plans for how you're going to spend your winnings.  It's a lock.

[Captainant 27694]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

To go with a football analogy, NY came out flat and let the other team run up a 21-0 lead in the 1st quarter, while NY barely even mustered a play for positive yardage.  They held the line in the 2nd quarter....and they came back with a damned good game plan in the second half to take a lead.

Texas coach going with a prevent gameplan and losing in the second half? I've never heard of such a thing!

[XYZ 2154]

28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It's not just that we're stupid -- it's that we're so passionately dedicated to being stupid that sets us apart.

It’s funny because it’s true!

[utee94 15835]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Also, a reminder that NY had ZERO Covid deaths for the first time this Saturday:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/new-york-city-coronavirus-deaths_n_5f0bae78c5b67a80bc09449f?utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=hp_fb_pages&utm_source=main_fb&ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000063&fbclid=IwAR0oA-yHJ2EyEqdjD6Ahpz_YFMnho1dWpImTAWm1_QZa0-7pmF4iG68UZ_Y

Let's think through the whole thing.  Did NY get caught with its pants down early on?  Yep.  Did Cuomo and de Blasio make SEVERAL serious (and deadly) mistakes in their initial handling of the crisis?  YEP.  New York's early handling of COVID was not great, and there were many cautionary tales to take from that.

BUT.....NY eventually came up with a pretty solid plan to stomp down transmission, which resulted in crushing hospital admissions and deaths.  The proof is in the pudding -- zero deaths on Saturday.  ZERO.  In one of the most populous states in the country.

To go with a football analogy, NY came out flat and let the other team run up a 21-0 lead in the 1st quarter, while NY barely even mustered a play for positive yardage.  They held the line in the 2nd quarter....and they came back with a damned good game plan in the second half to take a lead.

Critics of NY focus solely on the 1st quarter failure.  From which, by the way, we have much to learn.  But they completely look past the halftime adjustments THAT SHOW US EXACTLY HOW YOU PLAY TO BEAT THIS VIRUS.  All we want is for the rest of the country to say "huh, post-halftime NY seems like a pretty good model to follow, let's try to do that here."  That's it.  That's all we want.

But.....we won't.  Because....reasons.

I don't think we'll really know anything about NY until they start opening up INDOOR venues, especially bars.  As far as I know, they haven't done that yet.  Perhaps @PenelopeWitherspoon can comment further on that?

 

Edit: I'll add that NY has made excellent progress, I'm not attempting to diminish that.  But plenty of other places were in good shape, until the bars reopened.  That close-quarters indoor interaction without masks, appears to be a major driver for spread.

Edited July 13, 2020 by utee94

[Brisketexan 105181]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

I don't think we'll really know anything about NY until they start opening up INDOOR venues, especially bars.  As far as I know, they haven't done that yet.  Perhaps @PenelopeWitherspoon can comment further on that?

Ummmm.....what we know is that their current approach (which includes NOT opening indoor venues) is working.  The query you posit is an absolute non-sequitur -- it amounts to saying "we won't know if what NY is doing works until they do something that creates a higher-risk."  WTF?

[stone oak 639]

LOL at anyone thinking the state of NY did a great job. Forcing thousands of olds into nursing homes to die. Fantastic work!

[utee94 15835]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Ummmm.....what we know is that their current approach (which includes NOT opening indoor venues) is working.  The query you posit is an absolute non-sequitur -- it amounts to saying "we won't know if what NY is doing works until they do something that creates a higher-risk."  WTF?

Good god you're such a prickly, abrasive asshole sometimes.   I'm saying that they're going to have to reopen indoor venues at some point.  You're saying-- if we keep normal life shutdown forever, then the virus doesn't spread.  OK, that's fine, but it's not realistic. 

[Brisketexan 105181]

Just now, utee94 said:

Good god you're such a prickly, abrasive asshole sometimes

Sometimes?  Fuck, I hate when I fall short of perfection.  I'm shooting for 100% assholery.  Please call me out when I'm falling short of my goal, will you?  I want to do better.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Also, a reminder that NY had ZERO Covid deaths for the first time this Saturday:

Sounds like it burned thru /s

[Brisketexan 105181]

3 minutes ago, stone oak said:

LOL at anyone thinking the state of NY did a great job. Forcing thousands of olds into nursing homes to die. Fantastic work!

You're really bad at this, aren't you?

NY did a shitty job in the first half -- they let the virus run up a 21-0 lead.  There's a lot we can and should learn from their first half mistakes.

NY has done a great job in the second half -- they are at ZERO daily COVID deaths....we are at 700+ per day.  There's a lot we can learn from their halftime adjustments.

The fact that you focus on the first half failings, while ignoring and failing to learn from the second half adjustments, makes you at least 50% moron.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

6 minutes ago, stone oak said:

LOL at anyone thinking the state of NY did a great job. Forcing thousands of olds into nursing homes to die. Fantastic work!

if only he had addressed that critical mistake in his post.

oh well

also: fatwa

Edited July 13, 2020 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Ummmm.....what we know is that their current approach (which includes NOT opening indoor venues) is working.  The query you posit is an absolute non-sequitur -- it amounts to saying "we won't know if what NY is doing works until they do something that creates a higher-risk."  WTF?

It’s possible NYC is just flat out immune to it, theres reports that herd immunity doesn’t need to be 60-70% to slow down. This says 43% needed.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200623111329.htm

[aggie08 21510]

Ok, I guess I'll be the one to say it: can all the sports' analogies please go fuck off already.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19130]

5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I don't think we'll really know anything about NY until they start opening up INDOOR venues, especially bars.  As far as I know, they haven't done that yet.  Perhaps @PenelopeWitherspoon can comment further on that?

 

Edit: I'll add that NY has made excellent progress, I'm not attempting to diminish that.  But plenty of other places were in good shape, until the bars reopened.  That close-quarters indoor interaction without masks, appears to be a major driver for spread.

 

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ummmm.....what we know is that their current approach (which includes NOT opening indoor venues) is working.  The query you posit is an absolute non-sequitur -- it amounts to saying "we won't know if what NY is doing works until they do something that creates a higher-risk."  WTF?

As of right now, the only things indoors that are open are retail and personal services.  

Bars/restaurants indoors are not on the radar at this point.  There is a push to see what fitness studios/gyms can look like as a part of Stage 4.  And Museums and the like should reopen as a part of Stage 4, but I know those places are taking it very seriously.  So for example, even if NYC moves into Stage 4 next week (which it could), the big museums like the Met are not planning on opening until end of August.  They want to put their protocols in place.

As an ancedote, I went and had my eyebrows threaded and a mani/pedi on Sunday.  My threading studio has you come in, you have to have an appointment (no walk ins), and they take your temp, and if you are ok, they let you in.  They then instruct you to wash your hands.  You have to keep your mask on at all times.  The technician has a mask on as well as a face shield.  

On the mani/pedi, the studio keeps the door locked.  You come knock on the door, they take your temp.  If you are ok, you are let in.  They then instruct you to go wash your hands. They have put clear screens between customers on the pedi bench, and screens between the manicurist and the customer.  Everyone wears a mask at all times.  Everyone still chats with each other.  

I was incredibly impressed with how well thought out this was.

On the retail stuff, we went to Saks on the 4th of July (we had walked down Madison, and popped over to 5th Avenue after lunch).  They had people at the doors ensuring everyone had a mask and took hand sanitizer.  They were not temp checking.  For those that have been, that is a massive store.  They limit the number of people who can be in an elevator.  The most crowded floor was the shoe section, and that was only becauase they had sale racks.  If you try on shoes, you are required to put on the little disposable stockings.  On the designer clothing cloors, there were maybe 10 people per floor.  With as big as that store is, that tells you how few people were out and about.  I assume it is probably more crowded NOT on the 4th of July, but still.

Other stores, like Goyard, Hermes, and Bergdorf are shopping by appointment only.  That isn't that much of a switch for Goyard who only lets people in the store when they have a free sales associate.  Others, like Alexander McQueen and Celine, are open, but with more limited hours.  

A lot of the stores that got hit the week after Memorial Day still have not fully their windows, as I imagine the glass folks are in high demand.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Ok, I guess I'll be the one to say it: can all the sports' analogies please go fuck off already.

that was my fault. i'm just having some serious Charlie Strong 'I FEEL LIKE I'M ON CRAZY PILLS' flashbacks watching this train wreck unfold and seeing others completely ignoring the obvious. 

[Brisketexan 105181]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

It’s possible NYC is just flat out immune to it, theres reports that herd immunity doesn’t need to be 60-70% to slow down. This says 43% needed.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200623111329.htm

Like any complex system (and a society with varying densities, varying demographics in age and morbidities, a virus, a certain percentage already exposed, and sharply modified behaviors is ABSOLUTELY a complex system), it's a variety of factors at play.

Things that can reduce transmission: less contact with others (shutdowns, closures, etc., including voluntary social distancing), less transmission risk when you are in contact (near-100% mask-usage), and less susceptibility to transmission (those who have already been infected are likely immune).  All of them are in play.  The fact that a larger percentage of New Yorkers is immune than in other locales surely helps out, but it's far from the only factor.  I think it highly unlikely that NY is "flat out immune."  Simply because.....math.  Herd immunity slows transmission, it doesn't shut it off.  And 43% would be ridiculously low for herd immunity anyway (way below what we know for other diseases of similar infectiousness).

[Brisketexan 105181]

5 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Ok, I guess I'll be the one to say it: can all the sports' analogies please go fuck off already.

See, dealing with the virus is like attempting a chula shot in jai alai......

[Incredulity 11679]

12 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Ok, I guess I'll be the one to say it: can all the sports' analogies please go fuck off already.

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084]

20 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Ok, I guess I'll be the one to say it: can all the sports' analogies please go fuck off already.

Damn, rejected.  aggie08 just said "Don't bing that in my house. Get that weak stuff out of here!"

What?
 

[stone oak 639]

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

NY has done a great job in the second half -- they are at ZERO daily COVID deaths....we are at 700+ per day. 

You're really bad at this, aren't you?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19130]

I think the other thing that is going on, is NY and NYC are really paying attention to the data.  

Here is the New York Forward info on positive test results. (https://forward.ny.gov/percentage-positive-results-region-dashboard) It shows daily test numbers, and positive results by the various regions.  You can even dig down into the counties.  

FYI, NYC is one region.  There are actually 5 counties that make up NYC: New York (Manhattan), Richmond (Staten Island), Queens (Queens), Kings (Brooklyn), and Bronx (Bronx).  

So for the NYC region there were approximately 27k people tested, 341 positives, for 1.3% positive rate.  If you drill down further, you will see:

                                   population                            tests                                 positives                              percent positive

Manhattan                 1.6 million                          6,860                                   72                                           1%

Brooklyn                     2.6 million                          7,261                                   101                                        1.4%

Bronx                           1.4 million                          4,401                                  60                                          1.4%

Queens                         2.3 million                         6,788                                  87                                          1.3%

Staten Island               500k                                    1,681                                 21                                           1.2%

There is also an early warning dashboard by region (https://forward.ny.gov/early-warning-monitoring-dashboard) and daily hospitalization by region (https://forward.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary-region).

While I would lilke NYC to have more hospital space, a lot of the space being used up is NOT by Coronavirus patients.  We have had a massive increase in violent crime over the last 6 weeks since the George Floyd protests, especially gun crime.  Also, given the quality of some of the NY hospitals, some of those in our hospitals are not from NYC.  Rather they have come here for treatment because some of our hospital systems are cutting edge in various treatments.  Similarly to the hospitals in Houston.  

 

[Js1 85450]

Holy shit the retard crew is really out in full force this morning.  

[stone oak 639]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Holy shit the retard crew is really out in full force this morning.  

Reported. Inexcusable to use that pejorative language in 2020.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19130]

However, the BIGGEST thing New York did right when it did start opening up is the mask mandate was in effect and has stayed in place.  How the fuck Texas and other states allowed anything indoors without that is fucking mind bottling.  Seriously.

And look, I HATE wearing the mask.  I have an extreme phobia about having my nose covered.  It is fucking uncomfortable.  It just cost me a fucking $500 visit to the dermatologist becuase of all the milia that had formed around my mouth and chin becaust of it (and because derms are the only ones that can do extractions in NY), but I still fucking wear it.  Yes, I am less likely to have it on 100% when I am outside and walking down the street, especially if it not crowded.  But when there are others, I put it up.  I see it more as common courtesy than an infringement on my freedoms.  

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Where’s PilotsError?  We need him off the top rope with a ‘hoax!!!!’ post.

[Brisketexan 105181]

8 minutes ago, stone oak said:

You're really bad at this, aren't you?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

Sorry, I was referring to the remainder of the US, not just Texas.  My bad for the lack of clarity.

As of today, the scoreboard is NY - 0 deaths or close to it each day, Rest of USA - 700+ deaths per day.

We have shit to learn from NY, both positive and negative, if we'll pay fucking attention, instead of trying to taunt them.  Yes, NY fucked some shit up (so we shouldn't do those things) and it did shit right (so we should do those things).  Focusing on only one part of that means that you're more interested in creating political contrast and points than you are in.....actually managing this fucking pandemic.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Like any complex system (and a society with varying densities, varying demographics in age and morbidities, a virus, a certain percentage already exposed, and sharply modified behaviors is ABSOLUTELY a complex system), it's a variety of factors at play.
Things that can reduce transmission: less contact with others (shutdowns, closures, etc., including voluntary social distancing), less transmission risk when you are in contact (near-100% mask-usage), and less susceptibility to transmission (those who have already been infected are likely immune).  All of them are in play.  The fact that a larger percentage of New Yorkers is immune than in other locales surely helps out, but it's far from the only factor.  I think it highly unlikely that NY is "flat out immune."  Simply because.....math.  Herd immunity slows transmission, it doesn't shut it off.  And 43% would be ridiculously low for herd immunity anyway (way below what we know for other diseases of similar infectiousness).

Theres also this theory I read the other day of covid 19 dying out after it affects some quirky number like 200k per population before it really peters out on its own.


Plagarthm theory or something like that

[stone oak 639]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sorry, I was referring to the remainder of the US, not just Texas.  My bad for the lack of clarity.

As of today, the scoreboard is NY - 0 deaths or close to it each day, Rest of USA - 700+ deaths per day.

We have shit to learn from NY, both positive and negative, if we'll pay fucking attention, instead of trying to taunt them.  Yes, NY fucked some shit up (so we shouldn't do those things) and it did shit right (so we should do those things).  Focusing on only one part of that means that you're more interested in creating political contrast and points than you are in.....actually managing this fucking pandemic.

Fair enough. I'm not buying that NY has done much better. I think it could be simply a timing/immunity/mutation issue, but who knows.

Texas and many other states in the south shut down too early, and then reopened too early. That we can agree on.

Also, people that don't wear masks in public are assholes. Don't lump me in with that crowd.

Edited July 13, 2020 by stone oak

[aggie08 21510]

6 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

However, the BIGGEST thing New York did right when it did start opening up is the mask mandate was in effect and has stayed in place.  How the fuck Texas and other states allowed anything indoors without that is fucking mind bottling.  Seriously.

And look, I HATE wearing the mask...Yes, I am less likely to have it on 100% when I am outside and walking down the street, especially if it not crowded.  But when there are others, I put it up.  I see it more as common courtesy than an infringement on my freedoms.  

If everyone just thought like this, we'd be a whole hell of a lot better off. 

Do whatever the fuck you want around your own family and friends. I honestly don't care and don't judge anyone for their own personal risk acceptance. But, when you're in close proximity to strangers, is a little common courtesy really asking too much?

[Brisketexan 105181]

1 minute ago, stone oak said:

Fair enough. I'm not buying that NY has done much better. I think it could be simply a timing/immunity/mutation issue, but who knows.

Texas and many other states in the south shut down too early, and then reopened too early. That we can agree on.

I mean....I don't really care whether you're "buying" it or not.  The proof is in the pudding -- count the deaths.  At present, NY is suffering single-digit to low double-digit daily deaths.  That is a huge dropoff.  Whatever NY did wrong early on, they've managed to straighten out like a motherfucker (and yes, a higher rate of infection means that some higher rate of immunity is surely a factor -- not the only factor, but a factor).  We should learn from that, and control the parts that we can control.

[Guest Lobo]

I learned today that New York City is comprised of five Burroughs and five counties.  I am learning’d

do people in New York really not think we all know that?  Ooooh, do the part where your reveal that part of Manhattan is actually on the mainland and blends into the Bronx.  Though physically attached to it, do queens and Brooklyn not typically get folded into Long Island?   

[InkaUtexas 26022]

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19130]

13 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

If everyone just thought like this, we'd be a whole hell of a lot better off. 

Do whatever the fuck you want around your own family and friends. I honestly don't care and don't judge anyone for their own personal risk acceptance. But, when you're in close proximity to strangers, is a little common courtesy really asking too much?

Agreed. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19130]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

Good.  Maybe this will discourage a bunch of people.  

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19130]

12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I learned today that New York City is comprised of five Burroughs and five counties.  I am learning’d

do people in New York really not think we all know that?  Ooooh, do the part where your reveal that part of Manhattan is actually on the mainland and blends into the Bronx.  Though physically attached to it, do queens and Brooklyn not typically get folded into Long Island?   

Ummm, Manhattan is completely separated from the Bronx by the Harlem River and is truly an island.  

While Queens and Brooklyn are on Long Island, they are absolutely distinct from the Long Island counties that most people call "Long Island" and are considered New York City.  

Edited July 13, 2020 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[stone oak 639]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean....I don't really care whether you're "buying" it or not.  The proof is in the pudding -- count the deaths.  At present, NY is suffering single-digit to low double-digit daily deaths.  That is a huge dropoff.  Whatever NY did wrong early on, they've managed to straighten out like a motherfucker (and yes, a higher rate of infection means that some higher rate of immunity is surely a factor -- not the only factor, but a factor).  We should learn from that, and control the parts that we can control.

I'm really not trying to be a dick and I understand the current trends, but their death total is an order of magnitude greater than most states...

[Dbeasy 15076]

Month five of the coronavirus and we have a game show host calling it a hoax and a handful of surly posters who are still so uninformed about the situation that they believe letting the virus burn through the population would be the best path forward.

They again use the kindergarten math of a low death rate to argue it wouldn’t be that bad, except for the fact it would still result in more than a million deaths and would result in massive gaps in hospital services for those infected, leading to many more additional deaths. If people can’t go to the hospital, get drugs and medical services, that death rate could explode.

[Eskimohorn 5642]

Oh, that prompts Brisketexan's not-so-bold prediction: we are going to see a significant upsurge in flu cases and deaths in the coming years.  Why?  Because, without a trace of irony, the "it's just a bad flu!" crowd will transition to "I'm not going to poison my body with a flu vaccine - the flu isn't even as bad as the coronavirus, why would I get a vaccine for something that isn't even that bad?"  You can take that prediction, place a bet on it in Vegas, and go ahead and make plans for how you're going to spend your winnings.  It's a lock.

Just as there’s been a pneumonia epidemic in Florida and Texas (and Russia), we’ll see the worst flu outbreaks this year both in reality and in misdiagnosed COVID deaths.

So the truth based on statistical analysis of overall mortality is that COVID remains underreported as a cause of death, contrary to anecdotal reports of it being over-reported.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19130]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean....I don't really care whether you're "buying" it or not.  The proof is in the pudding -- count the deaths.  At present, NY is suffering single-digit to low double-digit daily deaths.  That is a huge dropoff.  Whatever NY did wrong early on, they've managed to straighten out like a motherfucker (and yes, a higher rate of infection means that some higher rate of immunity is surely a factor -- not the only factor, but a factor).  We should learn from that, and control the parts that we can control.

Well, we killed off a lot of olds up here first.  

But seriously, having it be serious means that as we opened up, in general, people take it more seriously.  The lock down was ABSOLUTELY necessary for NYC when we did it, as much as we all hated it.  Texas on the other hand locked down way too soon.  That is a strategy that I do not think you can go to a second time.  Especially post protests.  

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19130]

3 minutes ago, stone oak said:

I'm really not trying to be a dick and I understand the current trends, but their death total is an order of magnitude greater than most states...BN

No, you are.  NY fucked up early, but unlike CA, TX, and FL, we are opening back up without the massive increase in cases that you are seeing in those states.  That is what we are talking about when we say doing something right.  Stop being obtuse.

[Guest Lobo]

3 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Ummm, Manhattan is completely separated from the Bronx by the Harlem River and is truly an island.  

While Queens and Brooklyn are on Long Island, they are absolutely distinct from the Long Island counties that most people call "Long Island" and are considered New York City.  

You sure about that?   You sure there’s no part of the Burrough of Manhattan that is actually across the river, physically land adjacent to The Bronx?   Marble Hill is north of the river, not south of it?  You’re sure about that?   Part of Manhattan is across the river

my only point was people in Texas understand how New York works.  

[aggie08 21510]

2 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

So the truth based on statistical analysis of overall mortality is that COVID remains underreported as a cause of death, contrary to anecdotal reports of it being over-reported.

Nah, I'm pretty sure that hospitals are still way over-reporting to fraudulently get in on some of that sweet, sweet COVID cash money. I heard it on this thread and a well-produced Facebook video with lots of dramatic pauses, so it must be true. It also fits my world view much better.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19130]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

You sure about that?   You sure there’s no part of the Burrough of Manhattan that is actually across the river, physically land adjacent to The Bronx?   Marble Hill is north of the river, not south of it?  You’re sure about that?   Part of Manhattan is across the river

my only point was people in Texas understand how New York works.  

Look at the big brain on Lobo.  It is 10k people.  Honestly, anything north of the Harlem River might as well be a different state.