Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[dcar00 14950]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Holy shit. Are those states?











And The Godfather




Yea I have no idea why you think whatever happens in Australia, France and Spain has to do with America.


Australia’s gone crazy from what I’ve seen in terms of lock down.

the good news for the countries that are seeing a cases  spike after hard lock down it may have bought them time to protect the olds and get prepared for the treatments so that they minimize hospitalizations and death. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Holy shit. Are those states?











And The Godfather




Yea I have no idea why you think whatever happens in Australia, France and Spain has to do with America.


Australia’s gone crazy from what I’ve seen in terms of lock down.

Oh my bad I thought when you said "everywhere" you meant "everywhere".

[MNLonghornFUKM 8981]

Oh my bad I thought when you said "everywhere" you meant "everywhere".

In the post you quoted me in, I’m clearly responding about the IHME model prediction for the 400K deaths in the United States

[dcar00 14950]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

In the post you quoted me in, I’m clearly responding about the IHME model prediction for the 400K deaths in the United States

yeah but.....

don't tell me you expect reading comprehension.

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

In the post you quoted me in, I’m clearly responding about the IHME model prediction for the 400K deaths in the United States

Ah. Well, either way, the US hasn't been in the "valley" for as long as Europe has. They had about a month of lead time on us. 

I'm not saying that we're going to see another big spike, I think it's possible we don't. But you're styling on a dunk that hasn't even been put through the basket yet. I don"t think we're anywhere close to being able to make broad assumptions, good or bad, like you're trying to make. We may not be for a year or more, even after we have a vaccine. We still have winter, flu season, and a general growing apathy to get through.

Edited September 5, 2020 by BradInATX

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

yeah but.....

don't tell me you expect reading comprehension.

There's a place that's full of posters that do nothing but make everything a paranoid criticism of rational thought, post memes, and make the same low-effort, politically-driven posts like "two weeks!" over and over. You'd probably feel much more comfortable there. Let me help you out.

[Message Board User 12405]

Along with last weekend's NY Times article about non-infectious positives, more evidence that many (most?) of our positive cases are non-infectious and that our Covid tests are way too sensitive. 

And more reason to largely ignore number of cases and to focus almost exclusively on hospitalizations to track the seriousness of the pandemic in any particular area.

 

[dcar00 14950]

14 hours ago, BradInATX said:

There's a place that's full of posters that do nothing but make everything a paranoid criticism of rational thought, post memes, and make the same low-effort, politically-driven posts like "two weeks!" over and over. You'd probably feel much more comfortable there. Let me help you out.

I'll hang here.  Thanks for the suggestion though.

Edited September 5, 2020 by dcar00

[dcar00 14950]

31 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Along with last weekend's NY Times article about non-infectious positives, more evidence that many (most?) of our positive cases are non-infectious and that our Covid tests are way too sensitive. 

And more reason to largely ignore number of cases and to focus almost exclusively on hospitalizations to track the seriousness of the pandemic in any particular area.

 

so this could be some of the re-infections?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8981]

India just passed Brazil for #2 with a record 90k case day

[Hefeweizen 5444]

Don’t trust any published statistics in case numbers.  Honestly beyond county level stats I don’t trust the ones here either, too much incentive for fuckery.  Especially the ones coming from the feds right now.

[XYZ 2154]

For several days now I’ve been smelling “campfire smoke”. I saw on the interwebs that lost or fucked up sense of smell is one of the symptoms of the ‘rona. I think I'm gonna try to get tested.

[Dbeasy 15589]

For several days now I’ve been smelling “campfire smoke”. I saw on the interwebs that lost or fucked up sense of smell is one of the symptoms of the ‘rona. I think I'm gonna try to get tested.

Campfire smoke is code for “farts”.

[atomheartbevo 90641]

29 minutes ago, XYZ said:

For several days now I’ve been smelling “campfire smoke”. I saw on the interwebs that lost or fucked up sense of smell is one of the symptoms of the ‘rona. I think I'm gonna try to get tested.

Has it been at least 2-3 weeks since you made the beast with two backs with South Austin's mom?

[XYZ 2154]

“Phantosmia”

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Chopper 17431]

A couple weeks after Sturgis and the Dakotas have taken the lead in number of new infections per million. Whooop!

[Ghost of LL 15698]

A couple weeks after Sturgis and the Dakotas have taken the lead in number of new infections per million. Whooop!

It’s just amazing that nobody predicted that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hmbre97 6337]

Couldn't have been Sturgis. It was all the protestors....

[MNLonghornFUKM 8981]

I look at ND daily when they release their numbers at 11. The western part of the state is in DNGAF no mask mode. They’ve skated by until the Bismarck area actually started getting more than 10 cases a day in mid-late July. It’s a wildfire out there but we’re also talking an area of the country where all of the biggest cities have a combined total population of 180k. I would guess Sturgis helped contribute to a good portion to the other non Bismarck towns(Dickinson primarily)

 

 

 

Eastern ND has its 2 universities, Univ of ND in grand forks county is a hot spot. NDSU not as bad so far in a more populated county. There was one day where GF county had more positive cases (positive case count for the day)than Hennepin(Minneapolis).

 

Regardless, ND and SD spikes are ant hills compared to the sun belt and NE.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8981]

Double post

[Message Board User 12405]

[Guest Lobo]

6 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

Couldn't have been Sturgis. It was all the protestors....

Those Grand Forks and Rapid City thug riots are pretty serious business.  Could be all those indoor oil wells as well.  

But yeah, correlation is not necessarily causation and all that.  But how in the fuck can 300,000 people get together in one place, the largest gathering on Planet Earth in the last 8 months, and not see that the whole region would spike insanely?  I still think you can still safely gather, outdoors, in small groups, if you practice a few mitigation techniques.  But you can't put 300,000 people in an area that small, with zero mitigation techniques, have them go indoors in what are still very large groups (few hundred here and there into bars, indoor music shows, hotel lobbies, etc.) and not expect a massive uptick.  

We're just not fucking ready for large gatherings with very little mitigation taking place.  How is this so fucking difficult for people to wrap their heads around?  

Forget Fauci, forget the politics, forget the data.  Look at it this way:  If there's traffic to get to the event you're heading, or a line of people trying to enter when you get there, you shouldn't be fucking going yet.  

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

10 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Negative deaths ?  People are rising from the dead ?  Is the zombie apocalypse nigh ?

Edited September 7, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[NAVY 6969]

This is awesome. Just got into rick snd Morty a couple months ago. Thought the same thing first time I saw this episode  

 

[C-Man 27779]

Negative deaths ?  People are rising from the dead ?  Is the zombie apocalypse nigh ?

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8981]

Dang..those 70+ numbers are crazy just for non covid

[Pato del Muerto 53466]

Yeah when are we finally going to start spending money on cancer and heart disease research?

also, every Covid death developed Covid within the past 8 months, and usually dies within 60 days of initial infection. How many of the other deaths (like cancer and heart disease) were not present 2 months before the death?

its a disingenuous comparison, other than to once again prove that Covid isn’t an existential threat to humanity, which nobody is claiming. 

Edited September 8, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Sawbonz 28218]

Can this be accurate? Any of you stats guys want to give us some insight? The guy admits down thread it hasn’t been accepted for publication “yet” 

They used a similar algorithm for the BLM protests and the Trump rally in Tulsa and did not conclude either was a super spreader event

 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

7 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Can this be accurate? Any of you stats guys want to give us some insight? The guy admits down thread it hasn’t been accepted for publication “yet” 

They used a similar algorithm for the BLM protests and the Trump rally in Tulsa and did not conclude either was a super spreader event

 

 

And not a single reported case because of the mass protests !!!!!  It's a Festivus miracle !!!!!

[Message Board User 12405]

7 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Can this be accurate? Any of you stats guys want to give us some insight? The guy admits down thread it hasn’t been accepted for publication “yet” 

They used a similar algorithm for the BLM protests and the Trump rally in Tulsa and did not conclude either was a super spreader event

 

 

A worthy application to join Team Apocalypse from one Andrew Friedson.  Probably the same guy who predicted calamity in Harris County if we didn’t shut things down further in July and the same guy who is predicting 400,000 deaths from COVID by Dec 31.

All one needs to do is look at the South Dakota COVID dashboard (and hospital numbers nationwide continuing to improve) to see that his claims are complete bullshit.

https://doh.sd.gov/news/coronavirus.aspx#SD

[GreenspointTexas 9968]

8 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Can this be accurate? Any of you stats guys want to give us some insight? The guy admits down thread it hasn’t been accepted for publication “yet” 

They used a similar algorithm for the BLM protests and the Trump rally in Tulsa and did not conclude either was a super spreader event

 

 

Lol.

[BrazilHorn 6841]

Those guys are making a LOT of assumptions in terms of how they are generating their information. They also are going off very small number base in SD and applying the % increase for what is effectively shock value when they report back local numbers.

By no means am I saying that Sturgis won't contribute to an increase in CV19 cases, but the way they come to their conclusions (leveraging cell phone meta data & trying to track back to where folks stemmed from), using weather/temperature inferences to draw conclusions re: behavior, if a city had mask mandate etc etc cause me to question their outcomes. They spend a lot of time in their report discussing the public health decisions re: Sturgis in general. They are drawing a conclusion that 19% of all cases nationally derived from Sturgis in their timeframe of study which is ~260k cases. There were ~500,000 attendees at Sturgis. Basically they are saying that lots of folks caught CV19 at Sturgis and if they were from a "muh rights" state/city could have been superspreader. Challenge is how can they know which people that were at Sturgis caught CV19 and what state they are from.

This report to me is classic example of CV19 "headline" grabbing. LOTS and LOTS of peanut butter spreading here.

[dcar00 14950]

15 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Those guys are making a LOT of assumptions in terms of how they are generating their information. They also are going off very small number base in SD and applying the % increase for what is effectively shock value when they report back local numbers.

By no means am I saying that Sturgis won't contribute to an increase in CV19 cases, but the way they come to their conclusions (leveraging cell phone meta data & trying to track back to where folks stemmed from), using weather/temperature inferences to draw conclusions re: behavior, if a city had mask mandate etc etc cause me to question their outcomes. They spend a lot of time in their report discussing the public health decisions re: Sturgis in general. They are drawing a conclusion that 19% of all cases nationally derived from Sturgis in their timeframe of study which is ~260k cases. There were ~500,000 attendees at Sturgis. Basically they are saying that lots of folks caught CV19 at Sturgis and if they were from a "muh rights" state/city could have been superspreader. Challenge is how can they know which people that were at Sturgis caught CV19 and what state they are from.

This report to me is classic example of CV19 "headline" grabbing. LOTS and LOTS of peanut butter spreading here.

one thing this has shown is that the smart guys really don't have much of a clue about how to "model" a virus outbreak. Its a huge ass guessing game with extremely wide variances being used.  Almost all of these "studies" come with large assumptions and the cell data is being used as a trojan horse to prove something. the reality is no one really knows.

[Chopper 17431]

2 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

And not a single reported case because of the mass protests !!!!!  It's a Festivus miracle !!!!!

What's more likely to spread covid, a masked outdoor rally/protest with a few thousand people, a large majority of whom wear masks, or a massive outdoor and indoor party that lasts several days with the participants flaunting a lack of masks because they're that fucking stupid? Just checking.

[Bevo 13870]

1 minute ago, Chopper said:

What's more likely to spread covid, a masked outdoor rally/protest with a few thousand people, a large majority of whom wear masks, or a massive outdoor and indoor party that lasts several days with the participants flaunting a lack of masks because they're that fucking stupid? Just checking.

The BLM protests and riots have been going on for months and have their own partying associated with them. And more importantly, the BLM protests have been much larger and much more widespread across the country. I would venture to guess that the size and number of people involved in the BLM protests and riots are on the order of 1000X larger than the sturgis event. So as a long answer to your short question, I think it is pretty obvious that the BLM protests would lead to a large number of cases spread across most of the US.

[Chopper 17431]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

one thing this has shown is that the smart guys really don't have much of a clue about how to "model" a virus outbreak. Its a huge ass guessing game with extremely wide variances being used.  Almost all of these "studies" come with large assumptions and the cell data is being used as a trojan horse to prove something. the reality is no one really knows.

By all means if you know how to accurately model a pandemic from a disease that's never occurred in our lifetimes, please step the fuck up. For chrissakes, the model the CDC has used to warn about 30k deaths from the flu over-estimated the actual number of flu deaths in almost all years by a factor of 10. When all is said and done, we'll know how many people who died needlessly from covid by the number of excess deaths and that's around 250k right now. Not to mention, death is not the only negative effect from cv19. Even previously healthy people who were asymptomatic have what appear to be serious, long-term consequences. The fucking nancys who are exploiting a hole in data to insist we should barely lift a finger to counter this virus is staggering and will lead to a continued crisis throughout the fall and winter.

[Chopper 17431]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

The BLM protests and riots have been going on for months and have their own partying associated with them. And more importantly, the BLM protests have been much larger and much more widespread across the country. 

Huh I didn't realize you could catch covid from someone in Seattle if you were in Denver at the time. Thanks for the enlightenment.

[Bevo 13870]

1 minute ago, Chopper said:

Huh I didn't realize you could catch covid from someone in Seattle if you were in Denver at the time. Thanks for the enlightenment.

You might be attempting sarcasm, but there has been a fairly recent development in society called travel. Rioters and protestors in Seattle may spread the disease to friends who then unwittingly visited family in Denver. 

[dcar00 14950]

3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

By all means if you know how to accurately model a pandemic from a disease that's never occurred in our lifetimes, please step the fuck up. For chrissakes, the model the CDC has used to warn about 30k deaths from the flu over-estimated the actual number of flu deaths in almost all years by a factor of 10. When all is said and done, we'll know how many people who died needlessly from covid by the number of excess deaths and that's around 250k right now. Not to mention, death is not the only negative effect from cv19. Even previously healthy people who were asymptomatic have what appear to be serious, long-term consequences. The fucking nancys who are exploiting a hole in data to insist we should barely lift a finger to counter this virus is staggering and will lead to a continued crisis throughout the fall and winter.

AAARGH!  did I say they should be able to?  nobody knows about long term consequences yet because its brand new(8 months old).  so now the model for flu deaths is bullshit?something they have been modeling for 100 years?  and when they estimated 60-70K deaths from flu a few years ago that was bullshit too? 

we are in agreement.  they kept acting like they knew what they were talking about but the reality is they were pulling shit out of their ass.  they were the ones that were telling people they knew how to do this.

[Chopper 17431]

43 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Those guys are making a LOT of assumptions in terms of how they are generating their information. They also are going off very small number base in SD and applying the % increase for what is effectively shock value when they report back local numbers.

By no means am I saying that Sturgis won't contribute to an increase in CV19 cases, but the way they come to their conclusions (leveraging cell phone meta data & trying to track back to where folks stemmed from), using weather/temperature inferences to draw conclusions re: behavior, if a city had mask mandate etc etc cause me to question their outcomes. They spend a lot of time in their report discussing the public health decisions re: Sturgis in general. They are drawing a conclusion that 19% of all cases nationally derived from Sturgis in their timeframe of study which is ~260k cases. There were ~500,000 attendees at Sturgis. Basically they are saying that lots of folks caught CV19 at Sturgis and if they were from a "muh rights" state/city could have been superspreader. Challenge is how can they know which people that were at Sturgis caught CV19 and what state they are from.

This report to me is classic example of CV19 "headline" grabbing. LOTS and LOTS of peanut butter spreading here.

The same researchers studied both the drumpf oklahoma rally and the BLM protests in separate studies and concluded that neither drove an uptick in covid cases for a variety of reasons so it seems unfair to claim bias.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408 blm protests

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27522 sparsely attended political rally in OK

 

[Chopper 17431]

9 minutes ago, Bevo said:

You might be attempting sarcasm, but there has been a fairly recent development in society called travel. Rioters and protestors in Seattle may spread the disease to friends who then unwittingly visited family in Denver. 

Yes that was sarcasm and snark. Your response to my question only makes me shake my head in wonderment that you would respond with such a nonsensical take. 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

28 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

one thing this has shown is that the smart guys really don't have much of a clue about how to "model" a virus outbreak. Its a huge ass guessing game with extremely wide variances being used.  Almost all of these "studies" come with large assumptions and the cell data is being used as a trojan horse to prove something. the reality is no one really knows.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

26 minutes ago, Chopper said:

What's more likely to spread covid, a masked outdoor rally/protest with a few thousand people, a large majority of whom wear masks, or a massive outdoor and indoor party that lasts several days with the participants flaunting a lack of masks because they're that fucking stupid? Just checking.

Oh I don't doubt that indoors is worse. I also don't doubt there's a shit load of indoor activity going on with the protesters before, and after protests.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

5 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Yes that was sarcasm and snark. Your response to my question only makes me shake my head in wonderment that you would respond with such a nonsensical take. 

Nonsensical ? Did you really type that ?

[Chopper 17431]

10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

and when they estimated 60-70K deaths from flu a few years ago that was bullshit too? 

There was an excellent article back when the pandemic first started by an emergency room physician delving into the CDC flu death estimates. I tried to relocate it but haven't been successful so far. It concluded the actual number of flu deaths on an annual basis is around 3k per year and that you'd be hard-pressed to find a doctor who says they've ever had a patient who died from flu. The reason the CDC gives the flu death estimate is, in their own words,

Quote

CDC uses the estimates of the burden of flu in the population and the impact of flu vaccination to inform policy and communications related to flu.

It's a shock number to emphasize the importance for people to take active precautions to avoid spreading it.

[BrazilHorn 6841]

16 minutes ago, Chopper said:

The same researchers studied both the drumpf oklahoma rally and the BLM protests in separate studies and concluded that neither drove an uptick in covid cases for a variety of reasons so it seems unfair to claim bias.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408 blm protests

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27522 sparsely attended political rally in OK

 

I am just going off of the things they focused on that seem to be leading them down a pathway. I don't see "political" bias but more "public health" bias. (which I don't believe they are wrong in terms of wearing masks, social distancing etc)

They then used this public health view to draw huge inferences that Sturgis would be a mass spreading event. I think Sturgis was a stupid, selfish event to hold and for people to attend in the manner they did. I don't doubt there will be cases that stem from it. I just don't believe that 276k or so cases will stem from  it.