Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Captainant 27,680]

Props to the mods changing the title just in time for the blue lives matter folks to blame the surge in Wisconsin on protesters

[ChickenSandwich 9,843]

6 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

For our California readers who may want to know when your county may reopen, here's a scorecard:

 

Are “targeted investments” like Magic’s HIV cure?

Edited October 7, 2020 by ChickenSandwich

[InkaUtexas 25,955]

49 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Props to the mods changing the title just in time for the blue lives matter folks to blame the surge in Wisconsin on protesters

Shit, I am just happy the thread I started has been renamed so many times. May I have 3.50 please? 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

For sure. Head out towards Riverside County vs Orange County. I am all for addressing food deserts and the overall obesity epidemic in the US. I am not sure that trying to shoehorn those programs into a CV19 response is the time to do it.
The "demise" of CA has been long prophesied but now that large tech companies are figuring out that folks can work remotely at scale and that large corp campuses may not be as necessary. ~45% of Bay Area workers have said they will GTFO and go somewhere else (and companies have said "great" and are looking forward to COLA adjustments for their P&Ls)
I know a number of folks from CA that are moving to Texas (among other places) and I can easily see it just getting worse for CA especially with the new wealth tax. People in CA are hearing from the friends in TX that their kids are playing in baseball tournaments, going to school in person in many cases, playing football etc and meanwhile kids in CA are dealing with this shutdown approach that is not about "flattening the curve" at all.
I am curious if this is the thing that finally drives CA into truly shitty shape. They pulled the lever for Pot legalization after the 08/09 housing crisis, I don't know what budget levers they have truly left to pull.

[Js1 85,372]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

How else you gonna become a movie star?

You can be a cam whore anywhere 

[InkaUtexas 25,955]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You can be a cam whore anywhere 

I love it when people here speak from experience, thus passing on their wisdom for the youth. 

[Foosters 17,858]

Hell yeah, the bi-annual "California is shitty and its about to collapse" thread shit from people who live in Tyler, TX and suburban Minnesota.

[Foosters 17,858]

Quote

The response of our nation’s leaders has been consistently inadequate. The federal government has largely abandoned disease control to the states. Governors have varied in their responses, not so much by party as by competence. But whatever their competence, governors do not have the tools that Washington controls. Instead of using those tools, the federal government has undermined them. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which was the world’s leading disease response organization, has been eviscerated and has suffered dramatic testing and policy failures. The National Institutes of Health have played a key role in vaccine development but have been excluded from much crucial government decision making. And the Food and Drug Administration has been shamefully politicized,³ appearing to respond to pressure from the administration rather than scientific evidence. Our current leaders have undercut trust in science and in government,⁴ causing damage that will certainly outlast them. Instead of relying on expertise, the administration has turned to uninformed “opinion leaders” and charlatans who obscure the truth and facilitate the promulgation of outright lies.

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Hell yeah, the bi-annual "California is shitty and its about to collapse" thread shit from people who live in Tyler, TX and suburban Minnesota.

That’s rural Minnesota to you, mister

[Foosters 17,858]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

That’s rural Minnesota to you, mister

Actually much better

[GW Hayduke 1,953]

15 minutes ago, Foosters said:

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812

 

“Covid-19 has created a crisis throughout the world. This crisis has produced a test of leadership. With no good options to combat a novel pathogen, countries were forced to make hard choices about how to respond. Here in the United States, our leaders have failed that test. They have taken a crisis and turned it into a tragedy.

The magnitude of this failure is astonishing. According to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering,¹ the United States leads the world in Covid-19 cases and in deaths due to the disease, far exceeding the numbers in much larger countries, such as China. The death rate in this country is more than double that of Canada, exceeds that of Japan, a country with a vulnerable and elderly population, by a factor of almost 50, and even dwarfs the rates in lower-middle-income countries, such as Vietnam, by a factor of almost 2000. Covid-19 is an overwhelming challenge, and many factors contribute to its severity. But the one we can control is how we behave. And in the United States we have consistently behaved poorly.”

- NEJM

[Incredulity 11,675]

RECOGNIZE MY SUPERIOR CALIFORNIA LIFESTYLE!!!!!!!!sentfromglendale

[workswithseed 2,112]

29 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Hell yeah, the bi-annual "California is shitty and its about to collapse" thread shit from people who live in Tyler, TX and suburban Minnesota.

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2020/08/18/will-affluent-residents-leaving-california-still-h.html

Seems like California doesn't like people leaving.

[Beau Vine 54,247]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,709]

The White House outbreak is up to 34 people.

And....

[We’reTexas 1,473]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

You'd think with all of the wildfires and the cost-of-living, people would be bailing in droves and the place would be noticeably emptying out, but nope, plenty willing to move there.

Because it’s really, really nice. 
 

-Dude who moved from TX to the Bay a few years ago. 

[Chewbacca 7,780]

Randy Marsh.
*sigh*

/unzips

[dcar00 14,224]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

RECOGNIZE MY SUPERIOR CALIFORNIA LIFESTYLE!!!!!!!!sentfromglendale

so am I supposed to "please respect your decision"?

[dcar00 14,224]

2 hours ago, workswithseed said:

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2020/08/18/will-affluent-residents-leaving-california-still-h.html

Seems like California doesn't like people leaving.

that will be an interesting supreme court case, if they actually try to tax someone who no longer resides, works, or owns property in the state.  if this becomes a thing I could see a State residence card becoming a requirement in certain states not just a drivers license.

[Surly Bevo 25,025]

49 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

that will be an interesting supreme court case, if they actually try to tax someone who no longer resides, works, or owns property in the state.  if this becomes a thing I could see a State residence card becoming a requirement in certain states not just a drivers license.

I would have liked to see Montana

[workswithseed 2,112]

8 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

I would have liked to see Montana

Here you go.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

8 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

I would have liked to see Montana

Gonna be a dental floss tycoon? 

[Wally Fairway 5,550]

not really sure which Rona thread this one belongs in....so I put it here

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Somethings fishy....a Spartan promoting UM health?

[Captainant 27,680]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The White House outbreak is up to 34 people.

And....

I wonder if the people who were exposed by the president have the same access to treatment that he does. Somehow I doubt that everyone is getting the $100,000 course of treatment that is helping the president to be so lively

[immamac 42,864]

Just now, Captainant said:

I wonder if the people who were exposed by the president have the same access to treatment that he does. Somehow I doubt that everyone is getting the $100,000 course of treatment that is helping the president to be so lively

You it was only 100k? 

[Wally Fairway 5,550]

15 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Somethings fishy....a Spartan promoting UM health?

Heatlhcare is healthcare - UM health is one of the top providers in the area, not a laughingstock like Jimmy his team

[Incredulity 11,675]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

You it was only 100k? 

are we talking about the billing rate or the insurance negotiated rate?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

are we talking about the billing rate or the insurance negotiated rate?

you think they're going to hand him a bill? completely free healthcare for a dude that never paid into the system. cool cool.

[Guest Lobo]

I’m sure he paid payroll taxes at some point.  
 

an aside-is it still true that testing more means more people get the virus?  

[Borachio 416]

Update:  It's been 3 weeks since I had my second Moderna vaccine injection, so I got an IGG and total antibody test yesterday and both tests came back negative for antibodies.

I was surprised by this given the reaction I had to the second injection (chills, fever, soreness, etc.) that lasted 24 hours.

Must have been one heck of a placebo shot!

[Surly Bevo 25,025]

11 minutes ago, Borachio said:

Update:  It's been 3 weeks since I had my second Moderna vaccine injection, so I got an IGG and total antibody test yesterday and both tests came back negative for antibodies.

I was surprised by this given the reaction I had to the second injection (chills, fever, soreness, etc.) that lasted 24 hours.

Must have been one heck of a placebo shot!

Or the vaccine is an utter failure

[Brisketexan 105,154]

18 minutes ago, Borachio said:

Update:  It's been 3 weeks since I had my second Moderna vaccine injection, so I got an IGG and total antibody test yesterday and both tests came back negative for antibodies.

I was surprised by this given the reaction I had to the second injection (chills, fever, soreness, etc.) that lasted 24 hours.

Must have been one heck of a placebo shot!

 

6 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Or the vaccine is an utter failure

Yeah.....that's......concerning.  ZERO antibodies, though.....that would really strongly indicate that you got the placebo.  Even a shitty, ineffective vaccine should cause SOME antibodies (maybe just at insufficient levels).  At least, that's my understanding?

[Js1 85,372]

23 minutes ago, Borachio said:

Update:  It's been 3 weeks since I had my second Moderna vaccine injection, so I got an IGG and total antibody test yesterday and both tests came back negative for antibodies.

I was surprised by this given the reaction I had to the second injection (chills, fever, soreness, etc.) that lasted 24 hours.

Must have been one heck of a placebo shot!

[Borachio 416]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Yeah.....that's......concerning.  ZERO antibodies, though.....that would really strongly indicate that you got the placebo.  Even a shitty, ineffective vaccine should cause SOME antibodies (maybe just at insufficient levels).  At least, that's my understanding?

Yup, 0.0 was the result value on both tests. Anything greater than 1.4 on the IgG is positive for antibodies.

[DDD Dad 14,339]

Interesting update in yesterday's NYT The Daily podcast.  Their resident COVID expert/science desk reporter gave a much more optimistic long term outlook to the end of the pandemic (e.g., it's still gonna suck for the next 6-9 months but we might be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel then rather than in 2-3 years).

Link

[dcar00 14,224]

15 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Interesting update in yesterday's NYT The Daily podcast.  Their resident COVID expert/science desk reporter gave a much more optimistic long term outlook to the end of the pandemic (e.g., it's still gonna suck for the next 6-9 months but we might be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel then rather than in 2-3 years).

Link

were people really thinking pandemic/epidemic levels for 2-3 years?  people will still get it even after a vaccine.

[DDD Dad 14,339]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

were people really thinking pandemic/epidemic levels for 2-3 years?  people will still get it even after a vaccine.

Yes, based on the realistic assumption based on experience that the fastest time to a vaccine was over 4 years (mumps in the 1960's).  The vaccine trials are going well and faster than initially anticipated.  Still probably won't have an approved vaccine until after the first of the year and widespread vaccination won't happen for at least several months thereafter even with the Operation Warp Speed manufacturing going on while trials being conducted.

Not sure what your second sentence is trying to imply.

Edited October 8, 2020 by DDD Dad

[Brisketexan 105,154]

17 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Interesting update in yesterday's NYT The Daily podcast.  Their resident COVID expert/science desk reporter gave a much more optimistic long term outlook to the end of the pandemic (e.g., it's still gonna suck for the next 6-9 months but we might be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel then rather than in 2-3 years).

Link

That timeline is kind of what I have been thinking.  What's his basis, in general (I don't take the time to listen to a full podcast much these days).  We might get to next summer with enough people vaccinated, and enough travel and other protocols in place where we can get to something like a normal movement and gathering of people -- not 100%, but closer to normal.  But, I ain't an expert.

[DDD Dad 14,339]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

That timeline is kind of what I have been thinking.  What's his basis, in general (I don't take the time to listen to a full podcast much these days).  We might get to next summer with enough people vaccinated, and enough travel and other protocols in place where we can get to something like a normal movement and gathering of people -- not 100%, but closer to normal.  But, I ain't an expert.

The Daily podcasts are actually pretty good for driving into the office (when I used to listen to them, and I happened to come down yesterday and today).  Usually around 20 minutes long).

His basis is that we're already in the last phase of trials and there appear to be several good candidates for approval (which will speed distribution if more than one viable vaccine).  Also the monoclonal antibody therapeutic appears to be beneficial and he suggested it could act as a bridge to a vaccine (as they did with similar Ebola treatments to people within the infection cluster of infected patients to shut down spread).  The caveats [WARNING--political] are if the vaccines are viewed as being approved only by the White House and CDC political appointees (as opposed to broad scientific approval from NIH folks like Dr. Fauci) then acceptance and use of the vaccines might not take hold.  However if the vaccines do get broad approval he presumed there would be a pretty high acceptance rate among the public (himself included) which could get us back to normal perhaps by as early as late spring to mid summer of next year.

This guy has been nearly dead on with all of his predictions since early February, and he has readily pointed out over time where his predictions didn't pan out.

[dcar00 14,224]

14 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Yes, based on the realistic assumption based on experience that the fastest time to a vaccine was over 4 years (mumps in the 1960's).  The vaccine trials are going well and faster than initially anticipated.  Still probably won't have an approved vaccine until after the first of the year and widespread vaccination won't happen for at least several months thereafter even with the Operation Warp Speed manufacturing going on while trials being conducted.

Not sure what your second sentence is trying to imply.

I thought you meant 2 to 3 years from now.  I thought most pandemics in the past 100 or so years have lasted 12-18 months?

[Brisketexan 105,154]

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I thought you meant 2 to 3 years from now.  I thought most pandemics in the past 100 or so years have lasted 12-18 months?

The Spanish flu went from 1918 to 1920, well over two years.  And one challenge with the strong public health response (lowering the rate of transmission) may actually be to extend the length of the pandemic (the consequence of "flattening the curve").

[atomheartbevo 89,709]

35 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Yes, based on the realistic assumption based on experience that the fastest time to a vaccine was over 4 years (mumps in the 1960's).  The vaccine trials are going well and faster than initially anticipated.  Still probably won't have an approved vaccine until after the first of the year and widespread vaccination won't happen for at least several months thereafter even with the Operation Warp Speed manufacturing going on while trials being conducted.

Not sure what your second sentence is trying to imply.

I think that's why so many tentpole movies got pushed back to late 2021 (Batman, Dune, G. I. Joe: Snakeyes, etc.).  Everybody knows we won't have a widespread vaccine until next summer at the earliest, and more likely the fall.

[atomheartbevo 89,709]

So the White House was apparently using Abbott Labs'  BinaxNOW 15-minute rapid test, in lieu of face masks and social distancing.

MIT discussed it a bit: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/07/1009636/rapid-covid-tests-can-work-white-houses-mistakes-trump-abbott/

Quote

But what rapid tests gain in speed, they lose in accuracy, especially when it comes to false negatives. Abbott says its ID NOW test has a false negative rate of 5.3%, but other studies have shown it to be as high as 75%. The company says BinaxNOW, meanwhile, can deliver results in under 15 minutes and boasts a false negative rate of just 2.9%. But the covid version was only unveiled in August and there haven’t been any independent studies to scrutinize these claims. Massachusetts-based E25Bio is working on a rapid antigen test for covid-19 that is supposed to deliver results in under 30 minutes, but it could deliver false negatives in one out of every 10 tests.

So the covid version the WH was using had only been out since August, without independent studies to confirm the claims.

Even if it was only 2.9% false negative, if you put hundreds of people through that test in a very short amount of time, you could easily hit a dozen false negatives, or more.

And now you know the rest...of the story.

[dcar00 14,224]

18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The Spanish flu went from 1918 to 1920, well over two years.  And one challenge with the strong public health response (lowering the rate of transmission) may actually be to extend the length of the pandemic (the consequence of "flattening the curve").

I think Spanish flu was march 1918 to Sept/Oct 1919.

[Brisketexan 105,154]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I think Spanish flu was march 1918 to Sept/Oct 1919.

The bulk of it was over in 1919.  But there was a flare-up in 1920, per the wikis:

Quote

Fourth wave of 1920

In spring 1920, a fourth wave occurred in isolated areas including New York City,[51] Switzerland, Scandinavia,[54] and some South American islands.[55] New York City alone reported 6,374 deaths between December 1919 and April 1920, almost twice the number of the first wave in spring 1918.[51] Other U.S. cities including Detroit, Milwaukee, Kansas City, Minneapolis and St. Louis were hit particularly hard, with death rates higher than all of 1918.[56] Peru experienced a late wave in early 1920, and Japan had one from late 1919 to 1920, with the last cases in March.[57] In Europe, five countries (Spain, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Switzerland) recorded a late peak between January–April 1920.[54]

 

[Jiggy-Z 3,432]

35 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I thought you meant 2 to 3 years from now.  I thought most pandemics in the past 100 or so years have lasted 12-18 months?

Another podcast everyone should be listening to is the Osterholm Update, which thankfully, is only weekly.

Usually posts on Thursday.  Usually 45 min -1hr.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-27

From last weeks episode, the issue of vaccine effectiveness was illustrated and has not been discussed much yet.  One of the examples used was the question of what if the vaccine was say only 50% effective.  If 50% of the population takes the vaccine that would net us 25% immunity combined with assumed immunity from say 15% those whop already had the virus which would still only give us 40% herd immunity to say nothing of when the vaccine rolls out.

Usually pretty grim.

[BradInATX 9,208]

As long as we get March Madness next year I'm good. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,510]

2 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

driving into the office

That’s so 2010s

[Pato del Muerto 52,510]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

So the White House was apparently using Abbott Labs'  BinaxNOW 15-minute rapid test, in lieu of face masks and social distancing.

MIT discussed it a bit: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/07/1009636/rapid-covid-tests-can-work-white-houses-mistakes-trump-abbott/

So the covid version the WH was using had only been out since August, without independent studies to confirm the claims.

Even if it was only 2.9% false negative, if you put hundreds of people through that test in a very short amount of time, you could easily hit a dozen false negatives, or more.

And now you know the rest...of the story.

Fast, cheap, accurate. Choose two. You don’t get all three.