CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[AbeFroman 2941]

16 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

Trump sounds a lot like Tom's cousin Brian.

 

[Mo Horn 8899]

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Who's going to be able to get a picture of Trump golfing at Mar a Lago this weekend?
This could be his Nero moment.

[Jack Straw 2954]

16 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

The other side isn't interested. 

exactly.  Republicans have made it crystal fucking clear that there is no one to “reach across the aisle” to, and nothing to talk about.  vote out as many as you can, and ignore and marginalize the rest. 100% of them act in bad faith at all times.  

[horn4life 3819]

Unfortunately Austin is going to be one of the first large showcases of the abject incompetence of this administration.  SXSW is a $350+ million dollar stimulus to the Austin economy.  Many small businesses invest heavily to attempt to profit from the event and now all those costs are simply not going to produce the planned revenue.  A lot of bars and small businesses that get the overflow will see one of the biggest profit weeks of the year turn into the dust of unrecoverable expenses. This will be seen on a large scale, and it will be replicated on a smaller scale all around the country and the true extent of the spread becomes clearer as testing begins to catch up.

Right now I nearly view Trump's Presidency as over. This thing is loose and is not going back in the box.  In my mind there are probably 8-10,000 infected people right now with mild or no symptoms in our country. All having the ability to spread the disease. We haven't had enough kits , and still don't to test the contacts of all the KNOWN infected.  If you can't do that, then you have no ability to control the spread, as you can't identify who should be isolated.  This FACT is going to become much more clear as time goes on.  By the election we should be on the backside (hopefully) of the infection, and things will be getting back to normal.  Except a lot of the small businesses you used to frequent will no longer exist.  Unemployment will be spiking, and the costs that those most on the frontlines of contact (the working poor in restaurant and retail) get their unpayable health care bills.  I don't think Pence is going to be able to take all the blame for this FUBAR. This pandemic is going to highlight the fact the GOP does not give a fuck about facts, not a fuck about healthcare, and  that their love of lies and misinformation was a poor plan indeed.

The one thing I will plea everyone here to do going forward.  Give local small businesses your money.  They do not have the luxury of having the profits of another location to offset their losses. Often they have very little in reserves and a couple bad months can shut them down.  So give them your patronage rather than the chains and help your friends and neighbors survive what is going to be a very tough slog looking ahead. If you do not, many of them will not survive.

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by horn4life

[4th&Five 41707]

Agree with most of this but there are way more than 10,000 infected right now. 

[BrickHorn 18333]

13 minutes ago, horn4life said:

In my mind there are probably 8-10,000 infected people right now

You should probably see a psychiatrist about that.

[Francisco 2.0 32435]

21 minutes ago, horn4life said:

 and the costs that those most on the frontlines of contact (the working poor in restaurant and retail) get their unpayable health care bills.  I don't think Pence is going to be able to take all the blame for this FUBAR. This pandemic is going to highlight the fact the GOP does not give a fuck about facts, not a fuck about healthcare, and  that their love of lies and misinformation was a poor plan indeed

 

 

 

 

[Tuco 5084]

18 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Unfortunately Austin is going to be one of the first large showcases of the abject incompetence of this administration.  SXSW is a $350+ million dollar stimulus to the Austin economy.  Many small businesses invest heavily to attempt to profit from the event and now all those costs are simply not going to produce the planned revenue.  A lot of bars and small businesses that get the overflow will see one of the biggest profit weeks of the year turn into the dust of unrecoverable expenses. This will be seen on a large scale, and it will be replicated on a smaller scale all around the country and the true extent of the spread becomes clearer as testing begins to catch up.

Beyond just SXSW, I imagine that in a couple weeks the general advice will be to avoid going out. (Already there for those 60+).  This is going to be brutal on the bars/restaurant/entertainment/sports industries.  Likewise for cruise ships, airlines, hotels, etc. Netflix should do well.  

[4th&Five 41707]

We’ll probably do what Japan did. Close almost everything. They got criticized for waiting too long. We’ll wait a lot longer. 

[jimmyjazz 46483]

I seriously think the City of Austin should hold back some of that bullshit Robin Hood money that we send to the state in a grotesquely inequitable attempt to spread the cost of education around to all our citizens.  Just say "fuck it, sue us, we have a thousand small businesses and a hundred thousand bartenders, waiters, musicians, and other service industry people who just got royally fucked by this virus, and we're helping them first".

[Hank Scorpio 17731]

 

[Gap03 3349]

27 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

 

See, this is the kind of Darwinism that we need.  More Adelson events, more CPAC events, more Trump rallies as this pandemic proceeds.  We just need to find a way to isolate them once they do their thing.

[Pancho 45501]

 

[Brisketexan 105595]

 

Good.
Let Darwin do his work.

[Pancho 45501]

Dp

Edited March 7, 2020 by Pancho

[JimmyJames 12271]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 

It appears that it primarily kills old white men with heart or lung issues. 
 

That it apparently has not killed any young children or even infants I find both comforting and hard to believe. 
 

I am worried about my trumpkin dad since he’s in his 70s and has had heart issues. As for everyone else, like our comforter in Chief might say, we’ll see what happens. 

[Goredho 17512]

Has anyone stopped to ponder how implausible our current scenario is?  I am no biblical scholar, but this too much to chalk up to mere serendipity:

 

- A once-in-a-century pandemic

- Deadly to olds and fats

- Vital to the re-election of

- The worst President in our history

- Who happens to be the anti-Christ

 

One can only conclude that these are the end times!  The Surly Rapture approaches!  When the 7th Seal (the elastic waistband of Trump’s pants) is broken, we shall ascend to Heaven while Trump, McConnell, Hannity, Rush and the rest of conservative America are cast into the fiery bowels of Hell to spend an eternity in servitude to the Evil One — Hillary Rodham Clinton.

[BrickHorn 18333]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

When the 7th Seal (the elastic waistband of Trump’s pants) is broken

Was the 6th Seal his bladder, because that broke yesterday.

[GRHorn 105]

Thought I’d cross post this from Daily Texan thread.  SIAP

Here’s an interesting talk I found shared yesterday on twitter. No idea if it’s been shared on here yet. Can’t keep up with thread. Replicating as fast as the virus. A Johns Hopkins ID doc specializing in pandemics and addressing them. I’d recommend watching the whole thing. You know you were gonna spend 40 minutes online today anyway, but some key points. 

In his opinion, containment was impossible. By the time it was realized we had a novel virus, of higher severity, spread by respiratory means it was likely in multiple countries already. 

China’s draconian response was futile and mostly an overreaction to how poorly they handled SARS in 02-03. Has, in his opinion, set a poor example for the rest of the world. Measures are not going to be successful and the panic they cause is more harmful. (I did not know that full history and helps explain to me China’s reaction which has always been the part that concerned me the most.)

Says we essentially already have a pandemic. Calls it mild to moderate strength. 

Wearing masks around town if you aren’t sick is pointless. 

Will be endemic from now on. Should lessen in summer, then return in fall/winter. 

 Not a quickly mutating virus, so relatively speaking should be able to develop viable therapies. 

Again, in his opinion quarantines are useless.

 

[6th Street 6599]

That guy should stick to making samosas

[jimmyjazz 46483]

I'm going to take you at your word that he said "quarantines are useless", but I suspect there was something lost in translation.  I mean, that's just stupid.  If we HAD widespread testing and were able to identify Covid-19 patients early, they could certainly self-quarantine early in their homes until hospitalization was required.  That alone would be negative pressure on the spread of the disease.

[GRHorn 105]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm going to take you at your word that he said "quarantines are useless", but I suspect there was something lost in translation.  I mean, that's just stupid.  If we HAD widespread testing and were able to identify Covid-19 patients early, they could certainly self-quarantine early in their homes until hospitalization was required.  That alone would be negative pressure on the spread of the disease.

It’s his assessment that there’s so many already out there with very mild illness that you wouldn’t even bother to test, so it’s going to propogate like the common cold, which vanilla Coronaviruses cause. It’s basically like trying to eliminate the seasonal common cold from the planet. 
 

[jimmyjazz 46483]

Well, he's the big brane at Johns Hopkins, but the risk is a bit higher with Covid-19 than with the common cold.  I would think there would be good reason to try to suppress the death rate, even a bit.

[DixonHur 11610]

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

So these idiots believe there is a Deep State powerful enough to secretly launch global biological warfare just to hurt Trump's reelection campaign (editor's note: surely there are easier ways), but couldn't get Hillary elected?

[triplehorn 2664]

19 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, he's the big brane at Johns Hopkins, but the risk is a bit higher with Covid-19 than with the common cold.  I would think there would be good reason to try to suppress the death rate, even a bit.

Yeah, with all due respect, his explanation against mass quarantine and isolation is utterly lacking.  Nothing about what he said suggests he's actually thought it through wrt this specific bug, or what's happening statistically in various places with and without isolation.

 

cross-posting from other thread:

^^^ what that is is a mathematical epidemiological explanation of by how much do we need to reduce social contact in order for spread to be reduced to rate where it is contained and extinguished, i.e. favorable R naught.  We don't do this for the common cold because you don't die or get permanent scarring of the lungs.  Flu also has an acceptable mortality rate and we have vaccines, herd immunity etc.  This bug is sufficiently contagious and virulent to warrant serious consideration.  Aggressive social contact reduction would likely be most appropriate on a city/regional basis depending on circumstances.  We're already seeing the beginning of it in Washington.  It would need to take local and state leadership to coordinate and rally, because trump and his toadies are fucking clueless and insane.  I think many of our states and communities could accomplish this kind of reduction if needed, and without Chinese methods.

[BrickHorn 18333]

43 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm going to take you at your word that he said "quarantines are useless", but I suspect there was something lost in translation.  I mean, that's just stupid.  If we HAD widespread testing and were able to identify Covid-19 patients early, they could certainly self-quarantine early in their homes until hospitalization was required.  That alone would be negative pressure on the spread of the disease.

I watched up until the Q&A.  He basically avoided any mathematical analysis and essentially concludes “the downsides of quarantines are worse than the benefits.”  He made no attempt to quantify either side of the inequality, although he acknowledged earlier the twin CFR phenomena many of us have noted: it’s likely overstated now, but will get worse once hospital capacity is tapped.  He did no analysis of whether measures to slow the spread could help with that latter issue.  Just waved his hands and said “quarantines and stuff make things worse and this is already here, so...”

tl;dr: It’s already here, might as well sit back and enjoy it.  Because why?  Because I’m an MD at a Johns Hopkins-affiliated think tank, that’s why!

[FWD 297]

If botching the response to COVID-19 becomes the Trump presidency's final act, there is no way it will not get more absurd before it all ends. Meaning Trump himself contracting the virus (and lying about it), Biden contracting it, or RBG dying from it a month before the election. Probably all three will happen. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by FWD

[HenryJames 66285]

 

[gmr548 16641]

Out of curiosity, what is the Libertarian take on how this should be handled? I always enjoy their proposals for how national crises should be addressed.

"Something something both sides"

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Thought I’d cross post this from Daily Texan thread.  SIAP

Here’s an interesting talk I found shared yesterday on twitter. No idea if it’s been shared on here yet. Can’t keep up with thread. Replicating as fast as the virus. A Johns Hopkins ID doc specializing in pandemics and addressing them. I’d recommend watching the whole thing. You know you were gonna spend 40 minutes online today anyway, but some key points. 

In his opinion, containment was impossible. By the time it was realized we had a novel virus, of higher severity, spread by respiratory means it was likely in multiple countries already. 

China’s draconian response was futile and mostly an overreaction to how poorly they handled SARS in 02-03. Has, in his opinion, set a poor example for the rest of the world. Measures are not going to be successful and the panic they cause is more harmful. (I did not know that full history and helps explain to me China’s reaction which has always been the part that concerned me the most.)

Says we essentially already have a pandemic. Calls it mild to moderate strength. 

Wearing masks around town if you aren’t sick is pointless. 

Will be endemic from now on. Should lessen in summer, then return in fall/winter. 

 Not a quickly mutating virus, so relatively speaking should be able to develop viable therapies. 

Again, in his opinion quarantines are useless.

 

I watched it. He spends the first 15 minutes walking the audience through the relatively recent history of this virus family and all of the pandemics they have caused.

Did you get a chance to hear Trump’s response when asked why he gutted the pandemic response team that Obama formed?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

58 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It’s his assessment that there’s so many already out there with very mild illness that you wouldn’t even bother to test, so it’s going to propogate like the common cold, which vanilla Coronaviruses cause. It’s basically like trying to eliminate the seasonal common cold from the planet. 
 

Well, no. His premise is that we incorrectly focus resources on containment/quarantine instead of testing and therapies because the free market disincentivizes trying to solve these events.

sounds like something we can fix with a little tax cut and some PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY!!!

[Jive Turkey 12723]

 

[triplehorn 2664]

what a stupid dick.

[Goredho 17512]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Thought I’d cross post this from Daily Texan thread.  SIAP

Here’s an interesting talk I found shared yesterday on twitter. No idea if it’s been shared on here yet. Can’t keep up with thread. Replicating as fast as the virus. A Johns Hopkins ID doc specializing in pandemics and addressing them. I’d recommend watching the whole thing. You know you were gonna spend 40 minutes online today anyway, but some key points. 

In his opinion, containment was impossible. By the time it was realized we had a novel virus, of higher severity, spread by respiratory means it was likely in multiple countries already. 

China’s draconian response was futile and mostly an overreaction to how poorly they handled SARS in 02-03. Has, in his opinion, set a poor example for the rest of the world. Measures are not going to be successful and the panic they cause is more harmful. (I did not know that full history and helps explain to me China’s reaction which has always been the part that concerned me the most.)

Says we essentially already have a pandemic. Calls it mild to moderate strength. 

Wearing masks around town if you aren’t sick is pointless. 

Will be endemic from now on. Should lessen in summer, then return in fall/winter. 

 Not a quickly mutating virus, so relatively speaking should be able to develop viable therapies. 

Again, in his opinion quarantines are useless.

 

That’s a good video, but I interpret his statements about quarantine quite a bit differently.  He criticized state-imposed quarantine of large groups that contain mostly the uninflected.  He feels that tactic is not going to be effective in containing the disease and will result in more societal trauma than the disease.  

He does not say that the known infected with mild illness should not be isolated to help slow the rate at which it spreads.  He does not say shake it off and go to work.  He does not say you should not get tested because it’s just a cold.

He says the opposite of those things.  Listen to the CDC — which recommends staying in, working from home if possible and otherwise self-isolating especially if infected.  He says let’s spend resources on diagnostics (TESTING), vaccine research and treatment scaling instead of on something like China’a authoritarian containment strategy which includes vast swaths of uninflected.

I am not aware of anyone that has advocated building a wall around Seattle so no one can get in or out.  Larry Kudlow did tell everyone to avoid travel to Seattle, so I guess there is at least one person that kinda sorta advocates what the John Hopkins dude in the video says does more harm than good?

[4th&Five 41707]

41 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

Gonna be a real laugher when this thing rips through Congress. 

[immamac 43572]

So there's been lots of reported posts related to hoping/wishing certain people or groups of people contract the virus.

It's really close to the death wish rule so I'd prefer if people stopped doing that, but as long as it's not a specific person it's still technically not bannable 

[Parliament 14377]

Figured you guys would like to know this:

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

So there's been lots of reported posts related to hoping/wishing certain people or groups of people contract the virus.

It's really close to the death wish rule so I'd prefer if people stopped doing that, but as long as it's not a specific person it's still technically not bannable 

#magasnowflakes #fuckyourfeelings

[Goredho 17512]

I don’t hope anyone dies, I just hope they get sick enough to appreciate the value in prioritizing public health when they would not otherwise.

[Hank Scorpio 17731]

10 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Figured you guys would like to know this:

Coronavirus the the only candidate that can enact meaningful change in this country and that is why I am supporting it in 2020. Not me, It. 

[BrickHorn 18333]

Nm

Edited March 7, 2020 by BrickHorn
Oops.

[Jive Turkey 12723]

Oh shit. Wapo confirms. 

 

[washparkhorn 9939]

5 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

Oh shit. Wapo confirms. 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32435]

14 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

Oh shit. Wapo confirms. 

 

Thoughts and prayers.

[mdmost 43314]

[BrickHorn 18333]

21 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

Oh shit. Wapo confirms. 

 

“CPAC?”  More like “Gonna need a Z-Pack.”  Amirite?

Nah, I’m just kidding of course.  Antibiotics won’t save you.

Edited March 7, 2020 by BrickHorn

[Francisco 2.0 32435]

Our President.  More worried about e-cigarettes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html

Quote

On Saturday, Jan. 18, a day after the C.D.C. dispatched 100 people to three American airports to screen travelers coming from Wuhan, China, Mr. Azar made his first call to Mr. Trump about the virus, dialing him directly at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida estate. The president insisted on talking about e-cigarettes first, but Mr. Azar steered him to the virus.

 

 

 

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5807]

12 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

“CPAC?”  More like “Gonna need a Z-Pack.”  Amirite?

Nah, I’m just kidding of course.  Antibiotics won’t save you.

What about a flu vaccine? 

 

[BrickHorn 18333]

Remember this from last week?

On Wednesday, in front of a packed White House briefing room, President Trump told the country there were only 15 cases of coronavirus in the US, and “within a couple days [it is] going to be down to close to zero.”   

We’re now at 421 confirmed with 19 deaths.  

Trump is a complete moron.  But judges or her emails or some shit.