Jump to content

CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

Mrs Whiggins

By Mrs Whiggins
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3435

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

The highlights for those of you that did not click:

  • Top takeaways 
  • At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US. 
  • Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed. 
  • How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
  • We are moving from containment to care. 
  • We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
  • 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
  • [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]  
  • The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
  • This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
  • The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]  
  • Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
  • I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year.
  • What should we do now? What are you doing for your family?
  • Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 52.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Anastasis

    2588

  • jimmyjazz

    1665

  • 4th&Five

    1305

  • Mrs Whiggins

    1226

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

safe sex
safe sex

I'd just like to point out that neither myself nor any of my fellow nurses, fellow advanced nurse practitioners, and other healthcare providers ever swore an oath that we would lay down our lives for

Bama Chick
Bama Chick

Welp, it finally happened. I snapped in public today. I went into work for a bit this morning because I’m trying to figure out the safest way to host physicians we are recruiting given our CV-19 sit

safe sex
safe sex

I don't really know what to say anymore tbh. What happened last night is hard to put into words for anyone who hasn't worked in a hospital healthcare setting. Just unreal. Everyone is getting fucked.

Posted Images

cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27602

Posted
Posted

Although there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Denton County, in an abundance of caution, Denton ISD, along with most neighboring school districts, will close all schools and facilities next week. Beginning Monday, March 16 until Sunday, March 22, all Denton ISD schools and facilities (including all athletic facilities) will be closed.

Been looking for this email 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
horn4life

horn4life 3783

Posted
Posted

You know you are in the complete shitter when GOv.Desantis of Florida a trump cock gobbler displays the boxes that had..... wait for it... 1000 of the 2500 test they requested. Then brags Florida ordered more than any other state?  IS it inherent that at all levels of Government Republican elected must be deceptive?  Look we have 1000 test kits state of 23.1 million people.  OF course a little foreign travel blaming, but 1000 fucking test kits for Florida.  What a clusterfuck.  Or- "You're doing a heck of a job Brownie!" (R)

In case you are wondering this is the Friday after the Friday that Mike Pence and Azar promised over a million available tests by Monday.  How they fuck do they think telling fairy tales is the smart or right thing to do?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

Posted
Posted

so we stopped by pink dot last night for some wine (because 11 bottles might not be enough) and so we figured hey, why not get some more toilet paper (because 16 rolls is also not enough).  we grabbed an 8-pack (maybe 9?) and as the cashier was ringing it up, he said, "just so you know, the toilet paper is fifty dollars."

i won't go into the conversation after that, but i explained to him that shit isn't legal, especially in cases of emergency - also it's raining now and for the next week, which essentially turns west hollywood into post-apocalyptic thunderdome-style mayhem.  his point was "that they just don't have that many left" as if that makes it better.  it doesn't.

i have a pretty slow work day, and that gouging mother-fucker just made my list of shit to do today.

Anyone who has been the victim of price gouging, or who has information regarding potential price gouging, is encouraged to immediately file a complaint with the Attorney General's Office by going to the Attorney General's website or by calling (800) 952-5225.

FAQs on Price Gouging | State of California - Department of ...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

Posted
  • Author
Posted
26 minutes ago, horn4life said:

You know you are in the complete shitter when GOv.Desantis of Florida a trump cock gobbler displays the boxes that had..... wait for it... 1000 of the 2500 test they requested. Then brags Florida ordered more than any other state?  IS it inherent that at all levels of Government Republican elected must be deceptive?  Look we have 1000 test kits state of 23.1 million people.  OF course a little foreign travel blaming, but 1000 fucking test kits for Florida.  What a clusterfuck.  Or- "You're doing a heck of a job Brownie!" (R)

In case you are wondering this is the Friday after the Friday that Mike Pence and Azar promised over a million available tests by Monday.  How they fuck do they think telling fairy tales is the smart or right thing to do?

 

I won't disagree at all on your opinion of the Florida governor, but each test kit is able to perform 800 tests, so it's still a small number, but 1000 kits x 800 per kit is better than 1000 tests. To get the best results, I think my husband said you have to do PCR (polymerase chain reaction) which is time consuming. I haven't look lately to see how these shorter turnarounds are doing it and then asked him. He said at this point testing is mostly for treatment purposes probably since the virus is no longer contained. That is my unofficial third hand opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just a head's up - we are going to see actual widespread testing as states and locals move away from the CDC due to their preventable shortages. 

The numbers will skyrocket until we catch up. COVID-19 has affected many but the testing to this point has not shown it.

So - don't panic. Practice good hygiene, practice social distancing, protect the elderly and those with compromised immune systems, and flatten the curve so there are enough beds and ventilators available for the most vulnerable.

We can get through this and will. 

Edited by washparkhorn
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46130

Posted
Posted (edited)

I am of the perhaps misguided belief that the widespread nature of Covid-19 might be overestimated.  My reasoning is this:  we have yet to see a big run on hospitals.  Now, it's entirely possible that even the overestimates of infection might not be high enough for 1 in 5 to stress healthcare facilities this week, but it still gives me pause.

Don't get me wrong, I am fully on board with the near certainty that some 100M Americans or more will contract this within the next year, but the guesstimates of CURRENT cases might be a bit overblown, just given the fact that we haven't seen much hospitalization (yet).  If that number should represent 10-20% of infections, then either it's not quite that bad YET or we are horribly misdiagnosing what we are seeing.  At the very least, we should be able to rule out flu for almost all cases.  Maybe we're still facing a rush of "unknown" respiratory illnesses that are actually CV, but can't be diagnosed because testing is lagging so badly.  I'll accept that as a reason for a delay.

Edited by jimmyjazz
Link to comment
Share on other sites
FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652

Posted
Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I am of the perhaps misguided belief that the widespread nature of Covid-19 might be overestimated.  My reasoning is this:  we have yet to see a big run on hospitals.  Now, it's entirely possible that even the overestimates of infection might not be high enough for 1 in 5 to stress healthcare facilities this week, but it still gives me pause.

Don't get me wrong, I am fully on board with the near certainty that some 100M Americans or more will contract this within the next year, but the guesstimates of CURRENT cases might be a bit overblown, just given the fact that we haven't seen much hospitalization (yet).  If that number should represent 10-20% of infections, then either it's not quite that bad YET or we are horribly misdiagnosing what we are seeing.  At the very least, we should be able to rule out flu for almost all cases.  Maybe we're still facing a rush of "unknown" respiratory illnesses that are actually CV, but can't be diagnosed because testing is lagging so badly.  I'll accept that as a reason for a delay.

Keep in mind that it can take up to two weeks to show symptoms. So a bunch of people might have it and just not know it yet 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46130

Posted
Posted
Just now, Xian said:

Keep in mind that it can take up to two weeks to show symptoms. So a bunch of people might have it and just not know it yet 

Agreed, and it's definitely a factor.

LOL at the CDC expecting private sector help, when it was actively squashed by the government.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RomaVicta

RomaVicta 30017

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

I need to go to Costco in a couple hours for some brisket, beer, chicken breasts...your basic non-organic shopping shit because I plan to smoke some meat & drink Guinness this weekend.

 

I'm gonna get shanked by some prepper trying to stockpile ass wipes, aren't I?

 

 

I went yesterday. No chicken breasts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Doc Reeves

Doc Reeves 6434

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

this was planned malfeasance all along:

 


lol.  What the actual fuck? 
 

Anyone who has had the pleasure of working for a pharmaceutical co. should be laughing or crying and the stupidity of this statement 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Just a head's up - we are going to see actual widespread testing as states and locals move away from the CDC due to their preventable shortages. 

The numbers will skyrocket until we catch up. COVID-19 has affected many but the testing to this point has not shown it.

So - don't panic. Practice good hygiene, practice social distancing, protect the elderly and those with compromised immune systems, and flatten the curve so there are enough beds and ventilators available for the most vulnerable.

We can get through this and will. 

add washpark to the list of people who are more presidential than trump. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LTbear

LTbear 4171

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I am of the perhaps misguided belief that the widespread nature of Covid-19 might be overestimated.  My reasoning is this:  we have yet to see a big run on hospitals.  Now, it's entirely possible that even the overestimates of infection might not be high enough for 1 in 5 to stress healthcare facilities this week, but it still gives me pause.

Don't get me wrong, I am fully on board with the near certainty that some 100M Americans or more will contract this within the next year, but the guesstimates of CURRENT cases might be a bit overblown, just given the fact that we haven't seen much hospitalization (yet).  If that number should represent 10-20% of infections, then either it's not quite that bad YET or we are horribly misdiagnosing what we are seeing.  At the very least, we should be able to rule out flu for almost all cases.  Maybe we're still facing a rush of "unknown" respiratory illnesses that are actually CV, but can't be diagnosed because testing is lagging so badly.  I'll accept that as a reason for a delay.

Complete anecdote, but I know several doctors in the area (wife is a Stanford doc) are definitely seeing an uptick in flu-like symptoms and diagnoses of respiratory syncytial virus, which would have greatly overlapping symptoms. 

Edited by LTbear
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 33096

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I am of the perhaps misguided belief that the widespread nature of Covid-19 might be overestimated.  My reasoning is this:  we have yet to see a big run on hospitals.  Now, it's entirely possible that even the overestimates of infection might not be high enough for 1 in 5 to stress healthcare facilities this week, but it still gives me pause.

Don't get me wrong, I am fully on board with the near certainty that some 100M Americans or more will contract this within the next year, but the guesstimates of CURRENT cases might be a bit overblown, just given the fact that we haven't seen much hospitalization (yet).  If that number should represent 10-20% of infections, then either it's not quite that bad YET or we are horribly misdiagnosing what we are seeing.  At the very least, we should be able to rule out flu for almost all cases.  Maybe we're still facing a rush of "unknown" respiratory illnesses that are actually CV, but can't be diagnosed because testing is lagging so badly.  I'll accept that as a reason for a delay.

Funny, I'm the complete opposite. I think hospitalization and fatality rates have been overestimated because transmission rate has been underestimated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gap03

Gap03 3316

Posted
Posted
Just now, washparkhorn said:

Referred to Trump thoughts as "tharts"  - now talking about brisket this weekend. 

I was chuckling as the guy was talking about 8-lb briskets at Walmart.  Thanks for this feed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

Or is it? Hot mics are amazing for getting out some truth 

Agree. But some of it is not a good look for Trump's narrative that the press lies and irrationally hate him. They were just making fun of the lemmings (trump followers). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13073

Posted
Posted
Just now, washparkhorn said:

Agree. But some of it is not a good look for Trump's narrative that the press lies and irrationally hate him. They were just making fun of the lemmings (trump followers). 

Who cares? The only people who think that are already on his team. They are fucking lemmings 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46130

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Funny, I'm the complete opposite. I think hospitalization and fatality rates have been overestimated because transmission rate has been underestimated.

Sure, we have to take something as gospel.  What you're saying isn't all that far off of what I said -- I went with "80% mild", and you're not buying that.  You think it might be "95% mild" (fill in your own #). 

At any rate, something doesn't quite jibe yet.  Of course, it could be that we're way too early to draw any statistical conclusions.

Edited by jimmyjazz
Link to comment
Share on other sites
washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Who cares? The only people who think that are already on his team. They are fucking lemmings 

We do not want to fire up his base. 

And the tone does not match the seriousness of the situation. 

Message discipline 101.

But I understand your point and agree. I think some are ready to step out of the march and stay home or switch. 

Edited by washparkhorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...