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CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk


Mrs Whiggins

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2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

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"Look at all these poor people lining up for free handouts! Stop making bad decisions, you fucking bums!"

- @Johnny Sack*

*consults with financial advisor to find buys based on projected corporate bailouts.

What is that facility normally used for?  Thats a lot of concrete. 

NYC expanded the school lunch program to give 3 meals a day to anyone who wants them, no questions asked.  It operates out of about half the schools which are chosen to maximize coverage. It seems to work without crowding. Grocery stores are way more of a shitshow. 

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6 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

this.

it drives me fucking nuts when trump is prattling on about opening up the economy, because "everyone wants to."  or talking about how the team owners in major sports leagues are itching to get their teams back to playing.  "and you know, the fans really want to get back to that too."

well, yeah.  no fucking shit the fans want sports to be happening.  we want to be at games and restaurants and bars and i wanted my italy trip to not be cancelled.

99% of the country realizes this isn't about "what we really really want to happen."  and the 1% is trump and people who think like him. 

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https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

 

TL;DR.  Just read the portions I bolded.  

Quote

Over the past few days, I’ve been reading the major plans for what comes after social distancing. You can read them, too. There’s one from the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, the left-leaning Center for American Progress, Harvard University’s Safra Center for Ethics, and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer.

 

Quote

I thought, perhaps naively, that reading them would be a comfort — at least then I’d be able to imagine the path back to normal. But it wasn’t. In different ways, all these plans say the same thing: Even if you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the US either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness.

 

Quote

The AEI, CAP, and Harvard plans aren’t identical, but they’re similar. All of them feature a period of national lockdown — in which extreme social distancing is deployed to “flatten the curve” and health and testing capacity is surged to “raise the line.” That’s phase one. Phase two triggers after a set period (45 days for CAP, three months for Harvard) or, in the AEI plan, after 14 days of falling cases and a series of health supply markers.

 

Spoiler

All of them then imagine a phase two, which relaxes — but does not end — social distancing while implementing testing and surveillance on a mass scale. This is where you must begin imagining the almost unimaginable. 

The CAP and Harvard plans both foresee a digital pandemic surveillance state in which virtually every American downloads an app to their phone that geotracks their movements, so if they come into contact with anyone who later is found to have Covid-19, they can be alerted and a period of social quarantine can begin. Similarly, people would scan QR codes when boarding mass transit or entering other high-risk public areas. And GPS tracking could be used to enforce quarantine on those who test positive with the disease, as is being done in Taiwan.

To state the obvious: The technological and political obstacles are massive. While similar efforts have borne fruit in Singapore and South Korea, the US is a very different country, with a more mistrustful, individualistic culture. Already, polling shows that 70 percent of Republicans, and 46 percent of Democrats, strongly oppose using cellphone data to enforce quarantine orders. 

The CAP plan tries to answer these concerns, but in trying to imagine an answer, it shows the difficulty of the task. It’s worth quoting the CAP proposal at length:

The entity that hosts the data must be a trusted, nonprofit organization—not private technology companies or the federal government. The app could be developed for a purely public health nonprofit entity such as the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO)—an organization that represents state health officials—which would host the data. Congress or foundations could provide funding to develop and operate the technology. States licensing the app could provide ongoing operational funding to ASTHO, provided states receive federal funding for this purpose.

• Additional protections must include the following:

• The amount of data needed and shared must be minimized

• This system must be transparent

• Data must be collected, secured, and stored within the United States

• Data must be automatically deleted after every 45 days

• The sharing of data with the federal government, except for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), must be prohibited

• The sharing of data with state and local government agencies that are not public health agencies must be prohibited

• The sharing of data with third parties and the sale of data must be prohibited

• Any data shared publicly must be anonymized

As a condition of receiving a COVID-19 test in the future, individuals may be required to download the app, which would include their test result. For others, the app would be voluntary, although the vast majority of people could be expected to download it to see if there are cases in their neighborhood or near their workplace.

 

I’m not here to say that this, or anything else, is impossible. But it is light-years beyond the kind of political leadership and public-private coordination we’ve seen thus far. Who is going to spearhead the effort? President Donald Trump? House Speaker Nancy Pelosi? Bill Gates? Who is trusted enough, in this country in this moment, to shape this? And even if they could pass it, can we build it, and do so quickly? Force adherence to it, and quickly? Are we really going to deny tests to anyone who refuses to download the surveillance app? And what about communities with less digital savvy? 

The alternative to mass surveillance is mass testing. Romer’s proposal is to deploy testing on a scale no one else is contemplating — 22 million tests per day — so that the entire country is being tested every 14 days, and anyone who tests positive can be quickly quarantined. He shows, in a series of useful simulations, that even if the test has a high false-negative rate, the retesting is sufficient to keep the virus contained, and thus the country can return to normalcy rapidly. Of the various plans, this one seems likeliest to permit a true and rapid economic recovery.

But it is hard to imagine a testing effort of this scale, too. So far, America is struggling to get into the millions of tests per week. This plan requires tens of millions per day. Most experts I’ve spoken to doubt that’s realistic anytime soon, though some believe it’s possible, eventually. So far, we’ve added testing capacity largely by repurposing existing labs and platforms. To add more, we need to build more labs, more machines, more tests. And there are already shortages of reagents, swabs, and health workers. 

But even if those constraints could be overcome, how are these 22 million daily tests going to be administered? By whom? How do we enforce compliance? If you refuse to get tested, are you fined? Jailed? Cut off from government benefits? Would the Supreme Court consider a proposal like this constitutional?

The AEI proposal is the closest thing to a middle path between these plans. It’s more testing, but nothing approaching Romer’s hopes. It’s more contact tracing, but it doesn’t envision an IT-driven panopticon. But precisely for that reason, what it’s really describing is a yo-yo between extreme lockdown and lighter forms of social distancing, continuing until a vaccine is reached. 

This, too, requires some imagination. Will governors who’ve finally, at great effort, reopened parts of their economies really keep throwing them back into lockdown every time ICUs begin to fill? Will Trump have the stomach to push the country back into quarantine after he’s lifted social distancing guidelines? What if unemployment is 17 percent, and his approval rating is at 38 percent? 

And even if the political hurdles could be cleared, it’s obvious, reading the AEI proposal, that there’ll be no “V-shaped recovery” of the economy. Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA commissioner who helped craft the plan, says he thinks something like 80 percent of the economy will return — that may sound like a lot, but it’s an economic collapse of Great Depression proportions.

I don’t want anyone to mistake this as an argument for surrendering to the disease. As unlikely as these futures may be, I think the do-nothing argument is even less plausible: It imagines that we simply let a highly lethal virus kill perhaps millions of Americans, hospitalize tens of millions more, and crush the health system, while the rest of us go about our daily economic and social business. That is, in my view, far less likely than the construction of a huge digital surveillance state. I care about my privacy, but not nearly so much as I care about my mother. 

My point isn’t to criticize these plans when I have nothing better to offer. Indeed, my point isn’t to criticize them at all. It’s simply to note that these aren’t plans for returning to anything even approaching normal. They either envision life under a surveillance and testing state of dystopian (but perhaps necessary!) proportions, or they envision a long period of economic and public health pain, as we wrestle the disease down only to see it roar back, as seems to be happening in Singapore. 

What’s even scarier to consider is that the debate between these plans is far beyond the political debate we’re actually having. As of now, the White House has neither chosen nor begun executing on a plan of its own. That’s a terrible abdication of leadership, but reading through the various proposals, you can see why it’s happened. Imagine you’re the president of the United States in an election year. Which of these futures, with all its costs and risks and pain, would you want to try and sell to the American people?

One final takeaway from all this: If there is literally anything more we can possibly do to accelerate the development of vaccines or therapeutics, we should do it.

 

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3 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:
Quote

The AEI, CAP, and Harvard plans aren’t identical, but they’re similar. All of them feature a period of national lockdown — in which extreme social distancing is deployed to “flatten the curve” and health and testing capacity is surged to “raise the line.” That’s phase one. Phase two triggers after a set period (45 days for CAP, three months for Harvard) or, in the AEI plan, after 14 days of falling cases and a series of health supply markers.

 

Three months of lockdown seems like an unreasonable expectation to build your plan around.  From a purely practical point of view. Haven't read the report but AEI approach seems more reasonable, tie it to objective measures.  Also seems like there could be an end in sight, which is important from a psychological perspective. 

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28 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Unfortunately I think a lot of our elder fox bots arent going to be swayed by anything but personal tragedy.  They have to have the fox facade shattered for them to see anything beyond it.  Something they cant rationalize away because its no longer something happening to "those people."

Hypothetically, their wife could call it a hoax and subsequently die from covid and they would be clamoring to change the cause of death. 

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They do not want to admit they are wrong. These people are broken. 

ifc badass GIF

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21 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

The sports world has been at a standstill due to the coronavirus pandemic for roughly a month, and despite the widespread eagerness to restart games, a majority of Americans said in a recent poll they would not attend sporting events in person just yet.

Some 72% of Americans polled said they would not attend if sporting events resumed without a vaccine for the coronavirus. The poll, which had a fairly small sample size of 762 respondents, was released Thursday by Seton Hall University's Stillman School of Business.

https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/29018209/poll-fans-attend-games-vaccine

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27 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

What is that facility normally used for?  Thats a lot of concrete. 

NYC expanded the school lunch program to give 3 meals a day to anyone who wants them, no questions asked.  It operates out of about half the schools which are chosen to maximize coverage. It seems to work without crowding. Grocery stores are way more of a shitshow. 

Thats is the Traders Village  (outdoor flea market). This is the largest location available for the foodbank.

 

Schools in S.A. are distributing meals for all students twice a week to reduce exposure. 

Edited by SA-KC_Horn
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Just now, Bateshorn said:

Until we have broad and rapid testing plus a reliable antibody test, reopenings will simply lead to new outbreaks. 
 

That’s the only conversation that is realistic right now.

So obvious yet the president doesn't think we need it and there's no plan for it.

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7 minutes ago, SA-KC_Horn said:

Thats is the Traders Village  (outdoor flea market). This is the largest location available for the foodbank.

 

Schools in S.A. are distributing meals for all students twice a week to reduce exposure. 

Thanks!  Also, NYC's school lunch program includes adults and isn't restricted to students. Why wouldn't they do that in SA too?

That wait time seems like a nightmare. 

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3 hours ago, TXSG8R said:

Trump will yell fake news about every single quote.  You could play the video of him saying it and he would still say its fake.  Unfortunately, theres a big chunk of his base that would believe Trump over their lying eyes.  

If by “a big chunk of his base” you mean “all Republicans,” then yes.

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2 hours ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

 

 

Got into an argument with my grandmother last night.  She was trying to tell me he's doing a great job and I asked her when is it ever the president's concern to consider the ratings of a press conference when 6500 people died today?  "I don't know what you're talking about, maybe we shouldn't talk about this."  Yeah, I think too many of us were content to let sleeping dogs lie and we've let our elderly parents and grandparents get fully bought into this alternate reality.  I'm now trying to come up with a path to start figuring out how to bring them out of it.  Because we're going to have to fix this.  This is going to kill us as a country if we can't get people out from under this massive propaganda influence they are under. 

We need to go back to the days when we disagreed on our approach to reality but we all agreed on the same reality.  We're not even in the same reality any longer.  That's going to be deadly.

"Going to be?"  Perhaps you've missed the bodybags stuffed with people who thought this was all a hoax?

49 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Brisket

faae2bb0d9b35b2a29bd95070a2b573e422b285b

 

Anyway, I delivered the bomb.  From the ledge.

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Unsure about why adults are not included because we pay taxes to the school districts that are rolled into our property taxes.

Just recently they changed the meal distribution. Each vehicle must have the student or have the student id in order to pick up meals, I am assuming that adults were overstating the number of students in each household. 

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I suspect adults aren't included in most Texas towns because that portion of your property taxes that go to the school district are targeted at education services for . . . kids.

I'm not saying it's not good to also help feed the entire family if they have school-age children, but it obviously comes at a cost, and I doubt it's common.  I could be wrong on the latter.  I'm guessing it varies by district, not city or state.

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10 minutes ago, SA-KC_Horn said:

Unsure about why adults are not included because we pay taxes to the school districts that are rolled into our property taxes.

Just recently they changed the meal distribution. Each vehicle must have the student or have the student id in order to pick up meals, I am assuming that adults were overstating the number of students in each household. 

 

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I suspect adults aren't included in most Texas towns because that portion of your property taxes that go to the school district are targeted at education services for . . . kids.

I'm not saying it's not good to also help feed the entire family if they have school-age children, but it obviously comes at a cost, and I doubt it's common.  I could be wrong on the latter.  I'm guessing it varies by district, not city or state.

 

Adults aren't included because the National School Lunch Program is funding this, and it only covers kids aged 5-19, and that's the requirement of having the student in the vehicle (or ID) as well.

NYC schools just recently started offering meals, no questions asked.  They may have received a waiver, or just said fuck it.

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Quoting Trump in Today's Press Conference word for word:

"we're working on it. I think eventually it's going to work out. May work out quicker than what most people thought possible and maybe it won't. But it will work out eventually."

Wha? Classic.

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1 minute ago, yoladu said:

Quoting Trump in Today's Press Conference word for word:

"we're working on it. I think eventually it's going to work out. May work out quicker than what most people thought possible and maybe it won't. But it will work out eventually."

Wha? Classic.

How to 1) say nothing at all and 2) have your base praise you as a genius.

We are too stupid to continue as a nation and perhaps as a species.

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Not to be a dick, but it's part of my makeup:  the drug combinations that finally started to rein in HIV were (and are) commonly referred to as "cocktails".  Back to your post (which I agreed with).

posrep for proper usage of "rein."

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4 minutes ago, Mapache said:

Not surprising, fucking morons 

 

Are there just not many Republicans anymore? How can 80% of Republicans trust Mr. Trump, yet overall the number be just 37%? The rest pollled who do must be in low single digits?

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14 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Quoting Trump in Today's Press Conference word for word:

"we're working on it. I think eventually it's going to work out. May work out quicker than what most people thought possible and maybe it won't. But it will work out eventually."

Wha? Classic.

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I’d rather see Ray and his piss jugs running this country.

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12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

How to 1) say nothing at all and 2) have your base praise you as a genius.

We are too stupid to continue as a nation and perhaps as a species.

also how to "technically" never be wrong.  take both sides.

he's still defending his statement that one day it will "go away" because in theory, one day it will go away.

if i said in 1975 the astros would win the world series.  i wasn't wrong.  i just wasn't right yet.

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

also how to "technically" never be wrong.  take both sides.

he's still defending his statement that one day it will "go away" because in theory, one day it will go away.

if i said in 1975 the astros would win the world series.  i wasn't wrong.  i just wasn't right yet.

Man....I was a Stros fan back then.  And I didn't say they'd win the series....like, ever.  Because I was a Houston sports fan.

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1 hour ago, hayden_horn said:

i've seen it happen.

what happens is that the critical thinking skill gets turned off in the inactive population, and fox has figured out the buttons to push for outrage. while the outcomes are different, the method is essentially the same as nazi propaganda. nationalism, find a population to blame for all our evils (first it was mexico for trump, but now it's really all democrats), rinse and repeat, repeat, repeat. the result is a population of pissed off people who are taking things at their word and not engaging in any sort of critical thinking.

it's like my father-in-law. he's a smart guy who has bought in 100% to foxnews and right wing propaganda. what's interesting to me is how they all use the exact same terminology when referring to news. i've heard from multiple family members about the "hydroxyclorquine cocktail" that will save us from this coronavirus. who ever referred to medication "cocktails" before this mess? no one, until rush and hannity started. 

we are accused on the cloak room of having a left wing cabal sound chamber. i truly think the right is an actual cabal sound chamber because every accusation is actually a confession.

I'll tell you, though--I've seen some reason for hope with my FIL.

He was never full-on MAGAt.  But he definitely voted for Trump.  He's mildly racist, in that way that most working-class white men of his generation are.  He'll watch more than his share of Fox News.  But really it was the whole "drain the swamp" nonsense that got him.  Well, that and the fact that he hated Hillary Clinton.

He was talking to Mrs.LL the other night and observing that Trump looks like a goddamned moron in these press conferences.  He even said, "I can't imagine how he thinks he's going to get reelected."  Obviously, my FIL isn't going to be voting for him again.

That really surprised me, and gave me some hope.  Obviously, it's a tiny sample size.  And I'm not a fan of anecdote-based data.  But still--one takes signs of hope where one can find them these days.

3 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Are there just not many Republicans anymore? How can 80% of Republicans trust Mr. Trump, yet overall the number be just 37%? The rest pollled who do must be in low single digits?

That's the inference that I draw, and I think it's consistent with the polling.  Self-identification as Republican was at an historic low before the pandemic.  I don't think it's gotten any higher over the last 90 days.

These polling numbers are really catastrophic for Trump.  This is a matter of life-and-death, and you've got 60%+ saying they don't trust the guy.  How do you win election with those numbers when you're not running against Hillary Clinton?

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40 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Adults aren't included because the National School Lunch Program is funding this, and it only covers kids aged 5-19, and that's the requirement of having the student in the vehicle (or ID) as well.

NYC schools just recently started offering meals, no questions asked.  They may have received a waiver, or just said fuck it fuhgeddaboudit. 

….

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“It’s mind-boggling, actually, the degree of disorganization,” said Tom Frieden, former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director. The federal government has already squandered February and March, he noted, committing “epic failures” on testing kits, ventilator supply, protective equipment for health workers and contradictory public health communication. The next failure is already on its way, Frieden said, because “we’re not doing the things we need to be doing in April.”

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2 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

“It’s mind-boggling, actually, the degree of disorganization,” said Tom Frieden, former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director. The federal government has already squandered February and March, he noted, committing “epic failures” on testing kits, ventilator supply, protective equipment for health workers and contradictory public health communication. The next failure is already on its way, Frieden said, because “we’re not doing the things we need to be doing in April.”

you can't blame me, i didn't do anything!!!!

Edited by yoladu
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55 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

So it begins.  There are going to be plenty of folks who just don't trust this shit at all, no matter what their political leanings are.

 

 

 

 

Private business just may be the ultimate arbiter of this.  You want to get in?  Prove you are not sick.

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58 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I suspect adults aren't included in most Texas towns because that portion of your property taxes that go to the school district are targeted at education services for . . . kids.

I'm not saying it's not good to also help feed the entire family if they have school-age children, but it obviously comes at a cost, and I doubt it's common.  I could be wrong on the latter.  I'm guessing it varies by district, not city or state.

You are siloing it. The school lunch program is already set up to distribute food, and also has facilities distributed throughout the area. Expanding it to cover all people who need food and funding it are two separate things. In NYC, the expanded program is getting additional funding, not just its typical DOE funding.  It is not the normal school lunch program which was already universal for students, nor the summer lunch program which was already universal for children. But since the supply chain, distribution sites, and employees/volunteers for those programs are already there, why not use them? This helps avoid Trader Village scenarios.

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40 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

“It’s mind-boggling, actually, the degree of disorganization,” said Tom Frieden, former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director. The federal government has already squandered February and March, he noted, committing “epic failures” on testing kits, ventilator supply, protective equipment for health workers and contradictory public health communication. The next failure is already on its way, Frieden said, because “we’re not doing the things we need to be doing in April.”

Well, at least he's true to his word: "I don't take any responsibility."

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56 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Are there just not many Republicans anymore? How can 80% of Republicans trust Mr. Trump, yet overall the number be just 37%? The rest pollled who do must be in low single digits?

The survey results are here https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Hgp-3ol9cEvQXjuoaRrMJf1rlJWJSZRO/view

The question you are talking about was 19A.

They polled 2,020 people, 694 identified as Democrats, 579 identified as independent, 517 identified as Republicans.  I guess some people did not identify with any of those three categories, because those last three numbers do not add up to the total surveyed.

About 413 R's said they trust Donald Trump for medical information about the outbreak (80% of 517) but only 747 people out of the total said they did (37% of 2020).  So only 334 out of the 1503 non-Republicans in the survey said they trust Donald Trump for medical information (22%).

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"it's a very good statement, to say the Max is the safest plane in the air."  

How the fuck is Airplane Pt. III not in pre-production right now with shit like this?  

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So it begins.  There are going to be plenty of folks who just don't trust this shit at all, no matter what their political leanings are.
 
 
 
 


Honestly I'm not one for ton foil with big tech, but I'm not sure I do. I'd need more info. That said, with the people we have in charge now, someone else obviously has to solve the problem. So fuck it.



How do you win election with those numbers when you're not running against Hillary Clinton?


Run against Joe Biden.
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I love that the one word she said that he said he didn't understand was "pastor"

How the fuck do you idiots not realize he's not remotely a Christian.  

He has more in common with the bible's description of the False Messiah than he does with God's messenger.

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4 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Hey Brick...any advice for those of us still struggling with Trumpkin family members?

To be fair, my parents were predisposed to dislike Trump. But they both dislike the Democrats, so there was some work to be done. 

The keys were persistence and focusing on Trump’s traits that most bothered my parents. For example, the fact that he’s a draft-dodger who badmouthed war heroes (and GOP legends, to boot) really bothered my dad.  So I sent him quotes and Trump tweets and videos of Trump in which he badmouthed the military. If I saw something Trump did that pissed me off, I didn’t assume they saw it too.  I sent it.  So much of Trump support is enabled by blindness, willful or not.  

I also emphasized that the GOP under Trump is NOT the GOP they knew and loved.  The key was casting Trump as an enemy of their Us group without saying “...of course, your old cult of wealth and wedge issues was bullshit too.”  Highlighting that, in the politics of the old order, I’m still in the Them group would undermine my point. Success comes from emphasizing the new alignment: Trump stands against every reason you used to be a fervent Republican and also against our shared principles.

They’re good people with good heads on their shoulders.  We have different perspectives on a ton of things.  But there was enough commonality there that I could note (“That’s not what We stand for”) and identify instances of Trump violating their principles that I don’t necessarily share without being too judgmental (“That’s not what You and Your Party stand for”).  

And it also helped that the Dems nominated a likable centrist from the old order. In many ways, Biden is the more conservative candidate, as he represents a return to the political order of the Boomers’ glory days.  

Edited by BrickHorn
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1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

And it also helped that the Dems nominated a likable centrist from the old order. In many ways, Biden is the more conservative candidate, as he represents a return to the political order of the Boomers’ glory days.  

I think that's right, and I think that's ultimately why Biden wins.

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