CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[lemonlime 5503]

NSIAP

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/kushner-coronavirus-effort-said-to-be-hampered-by-inexperienced-volunteers/2020/05/05/6166ef0c-8e1c-11ea-9e23-6914ee410a5f_story.html

This should be the biggest scandal of the decade. But, alas, it's just an ordinary Tuesday.

 

 

The coronavirus response being spearheaded by President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has relied in part on volunteers from consulting and private equity firms with little expertise in the tasks they were assigned, exacerbating chronic problems in obtaining supplies for hospitals and other needs, according to numerous government officials and a volunteer involved in the effort.

About two dozen employees from Boston Consulting Group, Insight, McKinsey and other firms have volunteered their time — some on paid vacation leave from their jobs and others without pay — to aid the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to administration officials and others familiar with the arrangement.

Although some of the volunteers have relevant backgrounds and experience, many others were poorly matched with their assigned jobs, including those given the task of securing personal protective equipment (PPE) for hospitals nationwide, according to a complaint filed last month with the House Oversight Committee.

The volunteer team played a significant role in helping the government vet leads and send the results to a procurement team at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, where government officials made final decisions about purchases and procurements, two senior administration officials said. The team’s problems underscore a broader pattern of missteps and missed opportunities that has plagued the Trump administration as it struggles to cope with the pandemic.

The complaint, obtained by The Washington Post, was submitted by a volunteer who has since left the group and who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution from the administration. Key elements of the complaint were confirmed by six administration officials and one outside adviser to the effort, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

A spokeswoman for the oversight panel declined to comment.

The document alleges that the team responsible for PPE had little success in helping the government secure such equipment, in part because none of the team members had significant experience in health care, procurement or supply-chain operations. In addition, none of the volunteers had relationships with manufacturers or a clear understanding of customs requirements or Food and Drug Administration rules, according to the complaint and two senior administration officials.

“Americans are facing a crisis of tragic proportions and there is an urgent need for an effective, efficient and bold response,” reads the complaint, which was sent to the committee on April 8. “From my few weeks as a volunteer, I believe we are falling short. I am writing to alert my representatives of these challenges and to ask that they do everything possible to help front-line health-care workers and other Americans in need.”

Supply-chain volunteers were instructed to fast-track protective equipment leads from “VIPs,” including conservative journalists friendly to the White House, according to the complaint and one senior administration official.

“Fox & Friends” host Brian Kilmeade, for example, called two people he knew in the administration to pass along a lead about PPE in an effort to be helpful, said two people familiar with the outreach. Fox News Channel host Jeanine Pirro also repeatedly lobbied the administration for a specific New York hospital to receive a large quantity of masks, one of the people said.

 

Spoiler

 

Kilmeade and Pirro said they were not aware that their tips were being prioritized, a Fox News spokeswoman said.

The volunteer group tasked with securing protective equipment is part of a broader coronavirus team set up by Kushner that spans the White House, FEMA and the Department of Health and Human Services. Much of the effort is run out of office space at FEMA headquarters.

Kushner and other key administration officials praised the volunteers’ efforts, which they said have helped the virus response.

“The bottom line is that this program sourced tens of millions of masks and essential PPE in record time and Americans who needed ventilators received ventilators,” Kushner said in a statement. “These volunteers are true patriots.”

But some government officials have expressed alarm at the presence of the volunteers, saying that their role in the response is unclear and that they have needed guidance on basic questions.

Health experts said procuring PPE requires expertise in the different types of equipment hospitals need, experience dealing with manufacturers and an understanding of which types of masks, for instance, have FDA approval.

“That’s the danger — there may be decisions being made that are not fully informed and that’s going to lead to downstream effects on the response,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and an infectious-disease physician. “The people that are volunteering, they are donating their time and we have to be grateful for that, but whoever is supervising them needs to match their skills with what the needs are.”

Even as the volunteer group struggled to procure PPE, about 30 percent of “key supplies,” including masks, in the national stockpile of emergency medical equipment went toward standing up a separate Kushner-led effort to establish drive-through testing sites nationwide, according to a March internal planning document obtained by The Post and confirmed by one current and one former administration official. Kushner had originally promised thousands of testing sites, but only 78 materialized; the stockpile was used to supply 44 of those over five to 10 days, the document said.

One White House official denied that a third of the stockpile went to Kushner’s initiative, but declined to provide details.

The team of volunteers focused on PPE had trouble developing manufacturer relationships and making inroads with brokers, in part because they were using personal email accounts, rather than official government email addresses, the House Oversight Committee complaint states. Three senior administration officials confirmed the volunteers’ use of personal email addresses.

In addition to the already challenging circumstances, the complaint also says that on some of the teams, “minimal attempts at social distancing are taken.”

Jordan Libowitz, a spokesman for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, said that the volunteers should be classified as “special government employees” and that the arrangement raises myriad concerns.

“This is the problem with operating off the books,” he said. “We just don’t know if they’re following the law or not.”

The volunteers were told to save and share a copy of all of their official emails, to comply with the Federal Records Act, according to the volunteer and administration officials. But Libowitz said that “by using private email accounts, we have no assurances that their emails are being preserved. . . . This doesn’t prove anything nefarious is going on, but if something nefarious was going on, this is how they would do it.”

Two senior administration officials disputed a number of the concerns outlined in the complaint. They said that the volunteers did not have trouble vetting leads or getting responses from brokers or companies, and that many of the volunteers had relevant backgrounds and experience. The officials added that it is difficult to know whether the volunteers received leads on protective equipment that resulted in procurement because nongovernment employees did not have final decision or purchasing authority.

The officials also said they had not heard of any sort of “VIP” treatment prioritizing some leads over others.

“I believe the volunteers are competent, hard working and intelligent, but we represent a smaller procurement team than at most midsized companies despite the magnitude of the crisis,” the complaint says. “I believe America deserves a larger, better-funded response. The team generally works 12+ hour days, seven days per week, but frankly has little to show for it.”

Kushner’s team is made up of private industry volunteers as well as allies in government, including Brad Smith, director of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation, and Adam Boehler, a former HHS official who was brought in to assist with the coronavirus response, as well as private industry executives.

Some of the volunteers were asked to create models projecting how much protective equipment the government would need to address the crisis, while others worked to project potential drug shortages that hospitals could face, according to four people familiar with the effort.

But administration officials deemed some of the models “too catastrophic,” a person familiar with the situation said. The administration ultimately decided to rely primarily on a model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington that has had some of the most optimistic projections of cases and deaths.

Those directly involved in Kushner’s effort were quick to praise the volunteers, stressing that the team members — many of whom relocated to Washington — upended their lives to try to help the administration manage the deadly pandemic.

“In the face of this unprecedented crisis, these volunteers dropped everything to help our country,” Boehler said in a statement. “This is not a partisan issue, this is an American one, and I am proud of these patriots.”

Navy Rear Adm. John Polowczyk, who is heading FEMA’s supply -chain task force, was similarly effusive, saying in a statement that the task force’s initial mission was to “find more product around the globe to buy time to increase domestic production,” and that the volunteers were critical in that effort.

 

 

[DixonHur 11376]

35%?  Where have I seen that number?

 

[4th&Five 41590]

 

[Dahobbs 17681]

7 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

35%?  Where have I seen that number?

 

Probably from the post above yours.  

[gmr548 16616]

they were using personal email accounts, rather than official government email addresses... by using private email accounts, we have no assurances that their emails are being preserved. . . .

I mean just lol. I don't really care, everything is traceable online these data, but lol.

[lemonlime 5503]

Just now, gmr548 said:

 

 

I mean just lol. I don't really care, everything is traceable online these data, but lol.
 

 

Yeah, but, also from the article "The volunteers were told to save and share a copy of all of their official emails, to comply with the Federal Records Act, according to the volunteer and administration officials. But Libowitz said that “by using private email accounts, we have no assurances that their emails are being preserved. . . . This doesn’t prove anything nefarious is going on, but if something nefarious was going on, this is how they would do it.”"

[Upgrayedd 5818]

2 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Yeah, but, also from the article "The volunteers were told to save and share a copy of all of their official emails, to comply with the Federal Records Act, according to the volunteer and administration officials. But Libowitz said that “by using private email accounts, we have no assurances that their emails are being preserved. . . . This doesn’t prove anything nefarious is going on, but if something nefarious was going on, this is how they would do it.”"

Where have I heard this before?  

[Biff Tannen 45741]

7 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Yeah, but, also from the article "The volunteers were told to save and share a copy of all of their official emails, to comply with the Federal Records Act, according to the volunteer and administration officials. But Libowitz said that “by using private email accounts, we have no assurances that their emails are being preserved. . . . This doesn’t prove anything nefarious is going on, but if something nefarious was going on, this is how they would do it.”"

That's the horrifying thing they figured out.  Do it right out in the open and no one believes it could be nefarious because no one would be that stupid.  Ah, well, nevertheless.

[Anastasis 23485]

Back to the exchange earlier about whether or not accelerating certain aspects of the clinical trials related to vax approval were being considered, and potential ethical and safety implications.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/05/coronavirus-vaccine-challenge-trial-ethics-covid-19/3061009001/

Vaccine trials can take decades. In the race against COVID-19, we don’t even have years.

To have a vaccine by next summer will require both luck and cutting corners never cut before, putting once seemingly academic questions about vaccine testing suddenly front and center.

Current rules are meant to protect volunteers from harm, but with the global death count from the coronavirus over 250,000, scientists are asking: Is it acceptable to deliberately infect healthy people with a disease that could kill them, and for which there is no cure?

It's called a challenge trial, and increasing scientists say the answer is yes.

The tried and true method would be to vaccinate tens of thousands of people, let them go about their daily, socially distanced lives and see who gets sick, knowing some small number would have anyway. That takes time. 

To speed up the process, some researchers are planning to give volunteers experimental vaccines and then infect them with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. 

“You’re weighing risks and benefit to the individual versus benefit to society as a whole,” said David Magnus, director of the Stanford Center for Biomedical Ethics at Stanford University.

The ethical quandary will be fast upon us. As of Tuesday, eight candidate vaccines were in clinical evaluation, four in China, one in Britain, one in the European Union and two in the United States, according to the World Health Organization. None are yet at Phase III trials, in which a vaccine is tested on large numbers of people to see if it works, is safe or has side effects.

Typically, such trials would be years away. Now, they could begin this year. Last week the Trump administration created Operation Warp Speed to cut development of a vaccine by at least eight months.

The Food and Drug Administration, which regulates vaccines, is looking hard at the scientific, ethical and feasibility questions raised by such a drastically shortened schedule.

"A formal determination about any specific human challenge trial proposal would be made by the FDA in the context of all the information that is available at that time," said spokesman Michael Felberbaum. 

Exactly when challenge trials will happen or what guidelines will be changed to make them possible have not been revealed.

One thing, however, is certain. To meet such a timeline, what happens next will be extraordinary.

...

COVID-19 challenge trials

Scientists hope to speed up the process for the coronavirus vaccine by running tests for each phase at the same time. In a normal scenario, each part of each phase of testing would be completed and carefully analyzed before the next one was begun. That’s partly for safety and effectiveness but also to save money by not continuing down paths that lead to dead ends.

This time, companies and nonprofits are pouring billions into the search. The rules also are being loosened. The FDA is working closely with companies that have SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trials underway to streamline the process as much as possible.

Phase III is the conundrum. Usually, researchers watch tens of thousands of volunteers as they go about their normal lives to see if they become infected. With COVID-19, because volunteers would still be following social distancing guidelines, few of them would even be exposed to the virus. That's partly why the group must be so large.

“Then we would use statistical techniques to see if there were fewer cases than we would expect there should have been among those vaccinated,” said Paul Root Wolpe, director of the Center for Ethics at Emory University.

In a challenge trial, volunteers are purposefully infected with the virus. The number could be much smaller because most would get sick. The time would be shorter because COVID-19 appears within two weeks.

It’s an ethical minefield. Some percentage of the volunteers, no matter how young and healthy, could die.

For that reason challenge trials are done only with diseases where there’s a 100% cure, said Susan Ellenberg,a professor of biostatistics, medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine.

Even when there is a cure, taking part is no fun. When challenge trials were launched for malaria and cholera, participants got very sick.

“The volunteers had lots of diarrhea and vomiting, but they were standing by with IV fluids and antibiotics. so the people who took part were miserable but there was very low risk of actual permanent harm or death,” said Stanford’s Magnus.

With COVID-19, the death rates aren’t even known, and the one current potential treatment, remdesivir, appears only to lessen the duration of the illness.

 

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32428]

I'd say this pretty much sums it up.

https://pressthink.org/2020/05/the-plan-is-to-have-no-plan/

 

Quote

The plan is to have no plan, to let daily deaths between one and three thousand become a normal thing, and then to create massive confusion about who is responsible— by telling the governors they’re in charge without doing what only the federal government can do, by fighting with the press when it shows up to be briefed, by fixing blame for the virus on China or some other foreign element, and by “flooding the zone with shit,” Steve Bannon’s phrase for overwhelming the system with disinformation, distraction, and denial, which boosts what economists call “search costs” for reliable intelligence.

 

Quote

Stated another way, the plan is to default on public problem solving,and then prevent the public from understanding the consequences of that default. To succeed this will require one of the biggest propaganda and freedom of information fights in U.S. history, the execution of which will, I think, consume the president’s re-election campaign. So much has already been made public that the standard script for a White House cover up (worse than the crime…) won’t apply. Instead, everything will ride on the manufacture of confusion. The press won’t be able to “expose” the plot because it will all happen in stark daylight. The facts will be known, and simultaneously they will be inconceivable. 

 

Quote

“The plan is to have no plan” is not a strategy, really. Nor would I call it a policy. It has a kind of logic to it, but this is different from saying it has a design— or a designer. Meaning: I do not want to be too conspiratorial about this. To wing it without a plan is merely the best this government can do, given who heads the table. The manufacture of confusion is just the ruins of Trump’s personality meeting the powers of the presidency. There is no genius there, only a damaged human being playing havoc with our lives. 

 

[Dbeasy 15092]

Yup. Trump on ABC right now showing his test chart as proof we tested way better than everyone else. He has no clue about per capita.

[TornACL 7722]

58 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Yup. Trump on ABC right now showing his test chart as proof we tested way better than everyone else. He has no clue about per capita.

In order to understand "per capita" he'd first have to understand that there are other people who exist beyond just himself. 

[Hornius Emeritus 12488]

1 minute ago, TornACL said:

In order to understand "per capita" he'd first have to understand that there are other people who exist beyond just himself. 

Or understand anything at all.

 

[DanTheHorn 4966]

1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

 

It was or will now be a source of pride.

 

 

Link says April 20th on it. I can't tell if that is when it became available.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

21 hours ago, markstanco said:

21 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Bacterial and typical Viral Pneumonia's aren't nearly as contagious as C19.  And almost nobody with either is walking around and asymptomatic - like the main issue with C19 spread.  So what is your point? 

You are a doc and know way more than me on this. My point? Do you think destruction of a global economy was worth it? For something like the the flu or Pneumonia that happens yearly?

How’s your oil fire retardant clothing business going lately? I’m surprised you still can afford an internet connection. Must be all that government bailout money keeping your dumb ass in business.

Edited May 6, 2020 by JimmyJames

[Hookah Horns 3083]

Quote

Another issue he raises in the complaint is the administration’s slow response on N95 face masks. He alleges in the complaint that for nearly five weeks, HHS leadership failed to heed warnings the country was facing a massive shortage of protective equipment for health care workers. In that time, a major U.S. manufacturer contacted Bright, offering to activate mothballed production lines, but Bright could not get traction with superiors to fund the effort, the complaint states. Instead, sensing no urgency from the U.S., Prestige Ameritech proceeded to export a million masks to China, according to the complaint. Prestige Ameritech did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Whistle britches

This is totally unsurprising at this point, but somehow reading stuff like this is still a mind fuck. 

[Degenerate Gardner 4085]

Most objectionable part is that it's Guns & Roses' version. 

 

[TDunk 590]

4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

"you think february was impressive, wait til you get a load of may..."

[Jhawkmvp 1489]

On 5/5/2020 at 3:39 AM, 4th&Five said:

meanwhile...

 

Living in South Korea all I can say is:

[GRHorn 105]

9 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

Still waiting for you to back up your claim that people in this thread are advocating pushing through vaccines without proper trials. 

What I actually said 

Also Surly CR- Anyone who balks at a minimally tested and hastily approved vaccine pushed through by something called “Operation Warp Speed” is a rube.
 

So not actually what I said and you’ve got yourself all worked up. Your way of speaking reminds me of Bama Chick. Very histrionic. Am I getting warm?

[Irieguy 1059]

17 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

What I actually said 

Also Surly CR- Anyone who balks at a minimally tested and hastily approved vaccine pushed through by something called “Operation Warp Speed” is a rube.
 

So not actually what I said and you’ve got yourself all worked up. Your way of speaking reminds me of Bama Chick. Very histrionic. Am I getting warm?

Yes. He’s just asking questions. On a board he thinks is nothing but groupthink. For ... reasons. 

[SaucyJack 3504]

23 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

What I actually said 

Also Surly CR- Anyone who balks at a minimally tested and hastily approved vaccine pushed through by something called “Operation Warp Speed” is a rube.
 

So not actually what I said and you’ve got yourself all worked up. Your way of speaking reminds me of Bama Chick. Very histrionic. Am I getting warm?

Pos rep ratio checks the fuck out (35%).

[Dahobbs 17681]

53 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

What I actually said 

Also Surly CR- Anyone who balks at a minimally tested and hastily approved vaccine pushed through by something called “Operation Warp Speed” is a rube.
 

So not actually what I said and you’ve got yourself all worked up. Your way of speaking reminds me of Bama Chick. Very histrionic. Am I getting warm?

But no one actually said that (well, except for you I guess). 

[Upgrayedd 5818]

39 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

Pos rep ratio checks the fuck out (35%).

We have ratios?  The more you know.

[safe sex 11754]

Look at your rep number, which is conveniently positioned over your total post number, sort of like a fraction or division or...what's the word..

Edit: this reads way bitchier than I meant for it to come off!

Edited May 6, 2020 by trauma babe

[Biff Tannen 45741]

4 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

it will all happen in stark daylight. The facts will be known, and simultaneously they will be inconceivable. 

This has been the “plan” from the beginning. 

[elfenix 34332]

28 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This has been the “plan” from the beginning. 

Trust the Plan

[GRHorn 105]

2 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

Pos rep ratio checks the fuck out (35%).

What do you mean?

[Irieguy 1059]

29 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

What do you mean?

1,111 divided by 3,195 = 35%. If you need further explanation, let me know. 
 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Irieguy

[Upgrayedd 5818]

2 hours ago, trauma babe said:

Look at your rep number, which is conveniently positioned over your total post number, sort of like a fraction or division or...what's the word..

Edit: this reads way bitchier than I meant for it to come off!

Well, we all can’t be 107% ers 😉

[honolulu horn 6165]

39 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

1,111 divided by 3,195 = 35%. If you need further explanation, let me know. 
 

35% of 1111 is actually 389, but 

[Irieguy 1059]

3 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

35% of 1111 is actually 389, but 

Retard, what is 35% of 3,195? ~1,111. Which is EXACTLY the math I was doing. Positive rep points divided by total posts. So shut the fuck up if you can’t correct right. 

[honolulu horn 6165]

5 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

Retard, what is 35% of 3,195? ~1,111. Which is EXACTLY the math I was doing. Positive rep points divided by total posts. So shut the fuck up if you can’t correct right. 

What you actually wrote was "1,111 divided by 3,195 = 35%." So yeah, that's wrong. A third of 1111 is not 3200.

If you had actually written "what is 35% of 3195? ~1111" I wouldn't have said anything, because that would've been correct.  

Now go get your fucking shinebox. 

[Irieguy 1059]

5 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

What you actually wrote was "1,111 divided by 3,195 = 35%." So yeah, that's wrong. A third of 1111 is not 3200.

If you had actually written "what is 35% of 3195? ~1111" I wouldn't have said anything, because that would've been correct.  

Now go get your fucking shinebox. 

Is 1 divided by 2 = 50%? Yes

Is 1,111 divided by 3,195 = 35%? Yes

Are you fucking retarded? Yes

 

[Irieguy 1059]

Here is a website I use to teach my daughter. She’s 5. See how “divide by” is in the URL?  That should help. 

https://www.coolmath.com/prealgebra/02-decimals/10-decimals-dividing-by-decimal-01

[honolulu horn 6165]

Yeah, I fucked up. Late night drinking does that. Still you're 100% a giant douchebag, so take some advice from a retard and lighten up. We can all agree that GRHorn sucks. 

[Irieguy 1059]

2 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

Yeah, I fucked up. Late night drinking does that. Still you're 100% a giant douchebag, so take some advice from a retard and lighten up. We can all agree that GRHorn sucks. 

No you are a jackass. Don’t fucking correct somebody’s math if you can’t do math. Shut the fuck up in the future. 

[TexasEd 8077]

no math!

[Bama Chick 28596]

What I actually said 
Also Surly CR- Anyone who balks at a minimally tested and hastily approved vaccine pushed through by something called “Operation Warp Speed” is a rube.
 

So not actually what I said and you’ve got yourself all worked up. Your way of speaking reminds me of Bama Chick. Very histrionic. Am I getting warm?

Ooooh, sexist and stupid!

Here’s some histrionics for you - you’re the worst kind of moron. A moron who doesn’t know they’re a moron but still feels the compulsion to contaminate everyone else with their stupidity. You’re mean, you’re clueless, you’re selfish, you’re incurious, and you’re boring. No woman worth a damn would ever willingly want to have sex with you for pleasure. They only do it out of pity, for a transaction, or to have a story to tell their friends about the dumb mean half-man they suffered through.

You’re the absolute perfect Trumpkin. You’re sure to take that as a compliment but know that, as usual, you will be wrong.

So take this message with a the histrionic effort I can muster - fuck you, eat shit, and go read a book.

[Bama Chick 28596]

And I’m at 139%, so histrionic that you lowly 35%er.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

52 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

Yeah, I fucked up. Late night drinking does that. Still you're 100% a giant douchebag, so take some advice from a retard and lighten up. We can all agree that GRHorn sucks. 

 

49 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

No you are a jackass. Don’t fucking correct somebody’s math if you can’t do math. Shut the fuck up in the future. 

To be fair, oahu horn admitted fault which simply does not occur here under any circumstance. Yes, he tried to mask that admission by attacking you personally, but you should wear both his admission and the associated cover personal attack as a badge of honor. 

[Francisco 2.0 32428]

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32428]

Mission Accomplished, Arizona edition:

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/05/05/coronavirus-officials-stop-arizona-state-university-covid-19-modeling-team/5173380002/

 

Quote

The Arizona Department of Health Services told a team of university experts working on COVID-19 modeling to "pause" its work, an email from a department leader shows.

The modeling team of about two dozen professors at Arizona State University and the University of Arizona was compiling the most robust public model in Arizona of COVID-19. 

 

Quote

The email, from DHS bureau chief of public health statistics S. Robert Bailey, came on Monday evening, after Gov. Doug Ducey announced plans to begin easing social distancing in the coming days. 

ABC15 first reported on the email stopping the modelers' work. 

The state is instead relying on a model from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. This model has not been released to the public. 

 

Quote

The universities' model had shown that reopening at the end of May was the only scenario that didn't dramatically increase cases. 

In late April, Tim Lant, a mathematical epidemiologist at ASU, said the model showed five different scenarios for how the disease could progress in Arizona, depending on how social distancing efforts were relaxed.

The slowest curve, based on if the state reopens at the end of May, is “the only one that doesn't put me immediately back on an exponential growth curve,” Lant said in April. That’s because transmission rates would be lowest at that time, he said.

 

Quote

Bailey wrote that health department leadership asked the team to "pause" all work on projections and modeling. The department would also be ending access to special data sets the modeling team had been using for their efforts, Bailey said. 

"We realize that you have been, and continue to be working very hard on this effort, so we wanted to let you know as soon as possible so that you won’t expend further time and effort needlessly," Bailey wrote. 

The team could be needed again in the late summer or early fall as the influenza season returns, he noted. 

Bailey thanked the modeling team and said it "has produced very high-quality results, and these have been very helpful in guiding and informing the decision-making process."

ASU referred media inquiries on the issue to the state health department. UA did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

 

 

[DixonHur 11376]

12 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Too bad they didn't have any masks for these guys at the...*checks notes*...mask factory.

Edited May 6, 2020 by DixonHur

[HenryJames 66171]

Get to work, poors.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

If Trump really wants to showcase production, his next stop should be a coffin factory.  

[HenryJames 66171]

None of these people will go to prison.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Poor Jared

Edited May 6, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Dbeasy 15092]

Mission Accomplished, Arizona edition:
 
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/05/05/coronavirus-officials-stop-arizona-state-university-covid-19-modeling-team/5173380002/
 

The Arizona Department of Health Services told a team of university experts working on COVID-19 modeling to "pause" its work, an email from a department leader shows.
The modeling team of about two dozen professors at Arizona State University and the University of Arizona was compiling the most robust public model in Arizona of COVID-19. 

 

The email, from DHS bureau chief of public health statistics S. Robert Bailey, came on Monday evening, after Gov. Doug Ducey announced plans to begin easing social distancing in the coming days. 
ABC15 first reported on the email stopping the modelers' work. 
The state is instead relying on a model from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. This model has not been released to the public. 

 

The universities' model had shown that reopening at the end of May was the only scenario that didn't dramatically increase cases. 
In late April, Tim Lant, a mathematical epidemiologist at ASU, said the model showed five different scenarios for how the disease could progress in Arizona, depending on how social distancing efforts were relaxed.
The slowest curve, based on if the state reopens at the end of May, is “the only one that doesn't put me immediately back on an exponential growth curve,” Lant said in April. That’s because transmission rates would be lowest at that time, he said.

 

Bailey wrote that health department leadership asked the team to "pause" all work on projections and modeling. The department would also be ending access to special data sets the modeling team had been using for their efforts, Bailey said. 
"We realize that you have been, and continue to be working very hard on this effort, so we wanted to let you know as soon as possible so that you won’t expend further time and effort needlessly," Bailey wrote. 
The team could be needed again in the late summer or early fall as the influenza season returns, he noted. 
Bailey thanked the modeling team and said it "has produced very high-quality results, and these have been very helpful in guiding and informing the decision-making process."
ASU referred media inquiries on the issue to the state health department. UA did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 
 

 


This indicates one of two things. Either Trump and his administration are even stupider than we could imagine, or they know that any more delay in trying to open up the economy will throw the world into a global depression.

As I indicated in the financial thread, a $3-5T stimulus is only a bandaid for a very short period of time. There is not enough money to continue covering for the economy for long. And people don’t understand how bad it will get if we do slide into a depression.