CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[gmr548 16,635]

49 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Left the crowd in stitches. Trump was killing it.

That signature GOP humor!

[Biff Tannen 45,763]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

That signature GOP humor!

I heard the left is worried because they are getting better.

[gmr548 16,635]

25 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

About that...

We may be royally fucked until (and IF) successful vaccine:

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/06/19/immunity-to-covid-19-infection-may-fade-quickly/#25b0618772e1

Yeah, there's been a lot of reporting on this study recently. My understanding is that humans are typically only immune to other coronaviruses for a short period too, so this has always been a concern.

We don't know if B cells are able to create new antibodies upon a subsequent exposure. It was also reported that antibodies targeting the spike protein of the virus held up pretty well. So it's certainly not conclusive, but I continue to think that it's premature to think that you get it once and are done forever.

The more that comes out I honestly think this might end up endemic like the flu. Especially with out shoddy containment measures. Eventually the severity may lessen with a vaccine (more along the lines of a flu vaccine) and some level of population exposure/immunity, but I am not convinced this is ever going away. It may just be flu and COVID season from now on.

[Dnaguy 12,327]

22 hours ago, F250 said:

The proper way to use Trump's words as a guide.

 

[triplehorn 2,664]

29 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah, there's been a lot of reporting on this study recently. My understanding is that humans are typically only immune to other coronaviruses for a short period too, so this has always been a concern.

We don't know if B cells are able to create new antibodies upon a subsequent exposure. It was also reported that antibodies targeting the spike protein of the virus held up pretty well. So it's certainly not conclusive, but I continue to think that it's premature to think that you get it once and are done forever.

The more that comes out I honestly think this might end up endemic like the flu. Especially with out shoddy containment measures. Eventually the severity may lessen with a vaccine (more along the lines of a flu vaccine) and some level of population exposure/immunity, but I am not convinced this is ever going away. It may just be flu and COVID season from now on.

Beyond this novel coronavirus, maybe we should be looking at common ways to attack all RNA viruses.  This article puts it into some perspective.  About 2-3 novel zoonotic RNA viruses per year are identified, each possibly poised to go pandemic.  From 2017:

Are RNA Viruses Candidate Agents for the Next Global Pandemic? A Review

So more than a vaccine, targeting ways to disrupt replication of RNA viruses as a class may pay big public health dividends.

 

 

Edited June 21, 2020 by triplehorn

[Message Board User 12,397]

 

[Degenerate Gardner 4,104]

27 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

This a great news for Trump. A bunch of infected Mexicans is just the boogeyman shot in the arm that this campaign needs.

[4th&Five 41,701]

 

[Radical Larry 28,673]

Your message on testing was very clear on Saturday night. Fuck you.

[GRHorn 105]

On 6/21/2020 at 9:15 AM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

@GRHorn was on point.

It does kill it on surfaces. 
 

But I’ll be the first to admit I’m surprised by how much it has upticked in the last couple weeks. I thought that the initial small rise and plateau that we saw through the first month or so after re-opening would be our status through the summer. The good news is it seems to have weakened pretty substantially. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

10 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It does kill it on surfaces. 
 

But I’ll be the first to admit I’m surprised by how much it has upticked in the last couple weeks. I thought that the initial small rise and plateau that we saw through the first month or so after re-opening would be our status through the summer. The good news is it seems to have weakened pretty substantially. 

What about shooting very strong light into the body? It’s something I think is very interesting.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

It IS very interesting. Really a shame he didn't open his mouth.

[TexEx15 17,812]

17 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It does kill it on surfaces. 
 

But I’ll be the first to admit I’m surprised by how much it has upticked in the last couple weeks. I thought that the initial small rise and plateau that we saw through the first month or so after re-opening would be our status through the summer. The good news is it seems to have weakened pretty substantially. 

Curious what is the evidence that it has weakened pretty substantially?  Might this be a by product of generally healthier folks testing positive rather than the virus itself getting weaker?  
 

To be clear the healthier folks being the ones getting out and about more hence more positive tests in that population.

Edited June 22, 2020 by TexEx15

[SubliminalHorn 6,824]

18 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It does kill it on surfaces. 
 

But I’ll be the first to admit I’m surprised by how much it has upticked in the last couple weeks. I thought that the initial small rise and plateau that we saw through the first month or so after re-opening would be our status through the summer. The good news is it seems to have weakened pretty substantially. 

I think you're the only one here that is surprised. Links to research showing that the virus has weakened "pretty substantially"?

[BradInATX 9,208]

21 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I think you're the only one here that is surprised. Links to research showing that the virus has weakened "pretty substantially"?

 

I think if we're being honest a lot of us here expected a slowdown during the summer. I think the general expectation amongst normal people (not the "OPEN IT UP MUH FREEDOM" crowd) was a lull in the summer and a 2nd wave in the fall/winter.

I'm surprised that the heat hasn't slowed it down. Or maybe it has, but the impact of the heat isn't enough to offset the removal of restrictions and the general increased risky behavior by the public.

[Brisketexan 105,569]

29 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Curious what is the evidence that it has weakened pretty substantially?  Might this be a by product of generally healthier folks testing positive rather than the virus itself getting weaker?  
 

To be clear the healthier folks being the ones getting out and about more hence more positive tests in that population.

This.

If the "severity" of the virus is its kill rate, then that number (the kill rate) is going to be affected by the population being infected.  When it was infecting broad swaths of the population, including the olds and weak, it was killing at a higher rate.  Now that it's infecting mostly the younger swath of the population, its kill rate is lower.  Same virus.  Hitting populations of different vulnerability.

Hospitalizations, ICU census, and deaths.  Those are the three big metrics to watch.  But the severity of the virus itself isn't going to have much to do with that, based on the population that is seeing the biggest growth in infections.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5,138]

There are two very prominent attitudes about COVID that I have never understood.

1) It will slow down in the summer. 

I never saw an actual reason for this expectation anywhere, it was just continually said I guess until people started to believe it.

2) Once I get over COVID I'm golden.

Nowhere have I seen that this is like chickenpox in that you get it once and you are all set.  But I'm seeing this all over the place still.  It does appear that there is some short term immunity, but I wouldn't count on this being a chickenpox style disease.  We're going to have to plan for national vaccination and outbreak containment just like we did with Polio. I hope that's being planned for somewhere.

[henrygandorf 29,199]

4 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

There are two very prominent attitudes about COVID that I have never understood.

1) It will slow down in the summer. 

I never saw an actual reason for this expectation anywhere, it was just continually said I guess until people started to believe it.

i think this was based on past viruses with similar profiles, which slowed during the summer because the droplet radius (or whatever they call it) gets smaller with warmer weather.  also when kids are out of school, there is typically slower spread (since they're normally mass-spreaders).

any downtick this summer (at least with hospitalizations/deaths) would likely be based on (1) more low-risk (younger, healthier) people contracting the virus, and (2) measures society is taking - staying at home/wearing masks.

i would have to see numbers, but it seems like the 2,000 deaths per day has downshifted into 1,000 deaths per day, and might stay that way until late fall (and flu season), when we go back to 2,000+ per day.  so yeah, it probably won't "go away" until there's a vaccine.

[Brisketexan 105,569]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

i would have to see numbers, but it seems like the 2,000 deaths per day has downshifted into 1,000 deaths per day, and might stay that way until late fall (and flu season), when we go back to 2,000+ per day.  so yeah, it probably won't "go away" until there's a vaccine.

And as I noted above, I wonder how much of that reduction in total deaths is simply due to a change in the profile of the population getting infected.

When that population has more old people in it, you have more deaths.  When it has fewer old people in it, you have fewer deaths.  And don't get me wrong....fewer deaths is muy bueno.  But still....if we stay at 1,000 deaths per day for the rest of the year, we will hit 300,000 deaths in the US this year.  A bad flu death total is around 80,000.....so, yeah, around 4X as many dead as the flu, and that's not accounting for the physical and monetary losses due to a huge number of hospitalizations, or the long-term physical harm caused by serious infections (ground glass lungs).  That's just looking at one metric, and it's a bad one.

[BrickHorn 18,318]

22 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I'm surprised that the heat hasn't slowed it down. Or maybe it has, but the impact of the heat isn't enough to offset the removal of restrictions and the general increased risky behavior by the public.

Pretty sure that’s what is happening. In March through May, we suppressed spread by maximizing isolation. That was an artificial scenario that can’t be mapped onto typical seasonal behavior. When we opened back up a few weeks ago, people started mixing again and we saw a spike. But that spike almost certainly would have been more severe if we had reopened during the fall or winter, complete with a return to school. 

It shows how dangerous this disease is when people go about even a fraction of their normal business.

[GRHorn 105]

2 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I think you're the only one here that is surprised. Links to research showing that the virus has weakened "pretty substantially"?

Too busy this afternoon to link specifics but I’ve read a few anecdotal columns from physicians around the world saying from they’re seeing, it’s weakened. Also our own expert @ChiTownDoc supports that assessment based on what he’s seen around the country. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,216]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

This.

If the "severity" of the virus is its kill rate, then that number (the kill rate) is going to be affected by the population being infected.  When it was infecting broad swaths of the population, including the olds and weak, it was killing at a higher rate.  Now that it's infecting mostly the younger swath of the population, its kill rate is lower.  Same virus.  Hitting populations of different vulnerability.

Hospitalizations, ICU census, and deaths.  Those are the three big metrics to watch.  But the severity of the virus itself isn't going to have much to do with that, based on the population that is seeing the biggest growth in infections.

When entire nursing homes were hit early on we had a much higher death rate.  And we are not treating any differently.  There is zero question the virus is not as strong in the summer.  It’s much better outcomes with the same patient population.  

[MC Fresh Breath 4,074]

A brother of mine in Austin area just got notice that a second co-worker has tested positive.

Have another brother in Houston area who had a co-worker test positive.

 

Neither company voluntarily paying for others to be tested....

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Corona viruses are covered by a lipid envelope - which is weakened by heat, soap, moisture, . . . 

Think of a DQ Dipped Cone of soft serve. When cold, that shell rigid. When hot, that sucker melts away and the ice cream degrades more easily. 

 

[Brisketexan 105,569]

9 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Corona viruses are covered by a lipid envelope - which is weakened by heat, soap, moisture, . . . 

Think of a DQ Dipped Cone of soft serve. When cold, that shell rigid. When hot, that sucker melts away and the ice cream degrades more easily. 

 

[GRHorn 105]

14 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

When entire nursing homes were hit early on we had a much higher death rate.  And we are not treating any differently.  There is zero question the virus is not as strong in the summer.  It’s much better outcomes with the same patient population.  

I guess there could be a theory that more difficult environmental conditions for the virus haven’t been completely hindering transmission, but have been decreasing viral load sufficiently that patients are doing better. 
 

Versus the virus mutating over time to a less lethal version that enhances transmission. 

[jimmyjazz 46,470]

27 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

When entire nursing homes were hit early on we had a much higher death rate.  

This certainly explains a good deal of the difference.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

9 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I guess there could be a theory that more difficult environmental conditions for the virus haven’t been completely hindering transmission, but have been decreasing viral load sufficiently that patients are doing better. 

I don't have a good sense of viral load impact. But, more difficult environmental conditions (heat/moisture/soap) degrades the protective lipid envelope surrounding the virus.

Virus seasonality is not controversial and is not new to this virus. 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Why is it always the evangelicals that deny actual science all while pushing pseudo science bullshittery?

[TheStoicPaisano 9,940]

6 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Why is it always the evangelicals that deny actual science all while pushing pseudo science bullshittery?

 

J-Roc left Sunnyvale to become a fundy pastor?

[hayden_horn 11,365]

9 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Why is it always the evangelicals that deny actual science all while pushing pseudo science bullshittery?

 

hahaha, so for kicks, i googled the technology they are touting here:

https://cleanairexp.com/how-it-works/

it's an air purification system, and they do claim that it eliminates 99.9% of COVID shit.

Quote

COVID-19 REPORT:
Lab tests confirm that CleanAir EXP eliminates 99.9% of coronavirus from the air in less than 10 minutes.*
* Biosafety lab analysis performed on active coronavirus 229E test surrogate.

but, the particles/droplets need to find their way to the filter before landing on your face and infecting you. 

these dudes are just plain old dumbasses.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

[Bozo_Casanova 26,670]

On 6/21/2020 at 10:46 AM, Wanker Bob said:

About that...

We may be royally fucked until (and IF) successful vaccine:

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/06/19/immunity-to-covid-19-infection-may-fade-quickly/#25b0618772e1

well this is fucking terrifying

Quote

The study focused primarily on two groups of 37 people who had been infected by SARS-CoV-2, as determined by repeated tests for viral RNA. One group never displayed clinical signs and symptoms of Covid-19 (asymptomatic). The symptomatic group all displayed mild symptoms of Covid-19 as determined by examinations by several physicians. The groups were matched for age and sex.

The first unexpected finding is that CAT-scans of the lung showed that two-thirds of those with no clinical signs of Covid-19 had what are called ground-glass opacity abnormalities typical of Covid-19 in at least one lung, and one-third showed ground-glass opacities in both lungs. In simple terms, SARS-CoV-2 is damaging the lungs of the majority who seem symptom-free. The long term health effects of such injuries may be apparent in later life.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4,074]

56 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

well this is fucking terrifying

 

 

Saw this and where I saw it there were anecdotal posts about life being affected.  Death numbers are obviously the ones that scare us, but long term effects on survivors look pretty damn bad as well.

 

[Dnaguy 12,327]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

Why is it always the evangelicals that deny actual science all while pushing pseudo science bullshittery?

 

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 hour ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

J-Roc left Sunnyvale to become a fundy pastor?

Nom' sayin

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Third world country.

[horn4life 3,813]

So Texas has a huge spike in cases. 

Simply ramp down testing.  Sadly this is the truth... 

[BrickHorn 18,318]

28 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

 

Saw this and where I saw it there were anecdotal posts about life being affected.  Death numbers are obviously the ones that scare us, but long term effects on survivors look pretty damn bad as well.

 

If this sticks around, most of us will be survivors. Are we looking at a future in which the vast majority of the human race is chronically sick? If the disease results in permanent lung capacity issues, what does that mean for sports? 

[MC Fresh Breath 4,074]

4 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

If this sticks around, most of us will be survivors. Are we looking at a future in which the vast majority of the human race is chronically sick? If the disease results in permanent lung capacity issues, what does that mean for sports? 

Yep.

And then, what if it doesn't kill you today, but thanks to the damage it shortens your life expectancy by a good amount of years?  Not to mention quality of life in the last few years you get.

[Brisketexan 105,569]

1 hour ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

 

Saw this and where I saw it there were anecdotal posts about life being affected.  Death numbers are obviously the ones that scare us, but long term effects on survivors look pretty damn bad as well.

 

 

45 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

Yep.

And then, what if it doesn't kill you today, but thanks to the damage it shortens your life expectancy by a good amount of years?  Not to mention quality of life in the last few years you get.

These are legit and serious concerns.  Immediate deaths are not the only thing to worry about here.  If it kills a bunch more people than the flu over two years, that's really bad.  If it leaves millions more with long-term reduced lung capacity and shortened life spans on top of that?  It's a fucking disaster.

But whatever, we're committed to our path....

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

If this sticks around, most of us will be survivors. Are we looking at a future in which the vast majority of the human race is chronically sick? If the disease results in permanent lung capacity issues, what does that mean for sports? 

Do you even Human Capital Stock, bro? Kevin Hasselt, prior to quitting as the Chairman of Trump's Council of Economic Advisors would say that it looks great because now we can kick you off any coverage for a pre-existing condition and even better now that we've got no one entering the country for immigration, no need for welfare cause someone can replace you. Isn't that a winning strategy for the regime?

 

Seriously, as someone who almost got denied on my last job due to having had pneumonia, it's going to suck big time. For quality of everything: breathing, living, working.

[lemonlime 5,503]

1 hour ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

Yep.

And then, what if it doesn't kill you today, but thanks to the damage it shortens your life expectancy by a good amount of years?  Not to mention quality of life in the last few years you get.

It also is not something you just get over quickly. Anecdotal, but my sister (30s) had Covid in March.  Seemingly mild case with no hospitalization. She is still suffering from bad vertigo and other symptoms.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,670]

21 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

It also is not something you just get over quickly. Anecdotal, but my sister (30s) had Covid in March.  Seemingly mild case with no hospitalization. She is still suffering from bad vertigo and other symptoms.

hope she gets better soon. it''s a hell of a thing. 

[horn4life 3,813]

Great example of the Texas testing effort.  109 new confirmed cases in Nueces County today , and an enormous.... 49 tests conducted today....  https://www.caller.com/story/news/local/2020/06/22/nueces-county-reports-109-new-covid-19-cases-49-tests-conducted/3239394001/It's getting closer and closer to home now for gringos.  My Nephew tested positive and I expect other members of the family that thought masks were a stupid overreaction to also become infected.  Sad that we don't have a Governor nor a President that could have put actually protecting the public ahead of the President's dumb fucking musings. Abbot is worse, because he knew what was right and instead went with the, "but if I am truthful Trump might tweet at me" leadership.

[mdmost 43,294]

Travel bans swing both ways I guess

 

[4th&Five 41,701]

getting pretty tired of the winning, myself.

[Bullneck 19,315]

23 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Too busy this afternoon to link specifics but I’ve read a few anecdotal columns from physicians around the world saying from they’re seeing, it’s weakened. Also our own expert @ChiTownDoc supports that assessment based on what he’s seen around the country. 

Solid work.

[GRHorn 105]

55 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Solid work.

Scroll down like two posts if you wanna hear from someone who’s following cases all over the country. Douche.