CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[sheeeit 129]

Not going to go through the entire thread so I apologize if this has been covered.  I am sure it has been pointed out that getting real and accurate data on covid is pretty difficult.  So there are 2 parts to my post.

1) School's Opening- People are just tearing into politicians about re-opening schools and it just seems completely political at this point.  Not a left or right thing, but both sides are total hypocrites when it comes to "trusting the science".  The CDC, in the latest update I can find which was July 10, is now estimating that the covid infection fatality rate is .68%.  Pretty low number.  Further, the CDC acknowledges that older people with preexisting issues skew the number higher and that younger people most likely have a covid infection fatality rate of less than .3%.  Obviously, the rate is not zero but it will never be zero even with Covid gone.  If a parent is overly concerned that their child might be the unlucky .3% then, by all means, they should keep their child at home.  But the vast majority of people will send their kids to school with a fatality rate of just .3%.  If we are truly to believe the science, then why would we close elementary and high schools?  I understand the possible impact on teachers and staff and do not have an issue with any teacher/staff that is over 60 or has any underlying medical issues being given time off, with full pay, if they choose.  But 90% of the school staff can safely return to work.  And by safely, I mean they aren't going to die.  The may get sick but people miss work for sickness everyday.

2) News Coverage- Please do not turn this into a fox/cnn/msnbc/breitbart whatever debate.  It is not that.  It is just simply amazing that the reporting is so varied.  I am saying all news agencies want to create sensational headlines to get eyes and they all manipulate the data to that end.  As an example, I went to one prominent news site and the headline was (paraphrase) Miami-Dade ICU beds over 130% due to Covid.  Sounded horrible so I read the article and then clicked on the link they were relying on for their data.  It was to Florida's covid dashboard. Nowhere on the link, that I could find, was there anything, at all, that backed up their claim.  It was worthless.  I did another search and found a headline that read "Florida cases go up but hospitalizations remain steady".  Sounded better and I did the same thing by clicking on their link.  Their link went to the AHCA Emergency Status System, which I am sure the doctors will attest is a much, much more reliable figure.  They show Miami-Dade at 85% capacity and, essentially, unchanged from a month ago.  Further, they say the ICU capacity is typically at 90% and since they started elective surgeries again, a large percentage of the current ICU patients have no connection to Covid.  

It is just getting really, really, hard to get accurate information from news sites.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

6 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

I guess I'm not clear on whether you're saying that he shouldn't be risking catching the virus, that he shouldn't be taking personal time away from work, that he shouldn't be honored, or...? 

He’s a government face man during this pandemic whether he likes it or not.  Right now, our situation with covid-19 has never been worse.  It sends a bad message IMO. You’re free to disagree and I completely understand the sympathy for Fauci.  The man has the worst job in America right now.  Throwing out a first pitch isn’t that big of a deal but I’m like “WTF dude?” 

[Bookman 4639]

.68% is a pretty low number?

Also, 143,000/.68% = over 21,000,000.00.

Edited July 20, 2020 by Bookman

[Captainant 27660]

4 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Not going to go through the entire thread so I apologize if this has been covered.  I am sure it has been pointed out that getting real and accurate data on covid is pretty difficult.  So there are 2 parts to my post.

1) School's Opening- People are just tearing into politicians about re-opening schools and it just seems completely political at this point.  Not a left or right thing, but both sides are total hypocrites when it comes to "trusting the science".  The CDC, in the latest update I can find which was July 10, is now estimating that the covid infection fatality rate is .68%.  Pretty low number.  Further, the CDC acknowledges that older people with preexisting issues skew the number higher and that younger people most likely have a covid infection fatality rate of less than .3%.  Obviously, the rate is not zero but it will never be zero even with Covid gone.  If a parent is overly concerned that their child might be the unlucky .3% then, by all means, they should keep their child at home.  But the vast majority of people will send their kids to school with a fatality rate of just .3%.  If we are truly to believe the science, then why would we close elementary and high schools?  I understand the possible impact on teachers and staff and do not have an issue with any teacher/staff that is over 60 or has any underlying medical issues being given time off, with full pay, if they choose.  But 90% of the school staff can safely return to work.  And by safely, I mean they aren't going to die.  The may get sick but people miss work for sickness everyday.

2) News Coverage- Please do not turn this into a fox/cnn/msnbc/breitbart whatever debate.  It is not that.  It is just simply amazing that the reporting is so varied.  I am saying all news agencies want to create sensational headlines to get eyes and they all manipulate the data to that end.  As an example, I went to one prominent news site and the headline was (paraphrase) Miami-Dade ICU beds over 130% due to Covid.  Sounded horrible so I read the article and then clicked on the link they were relying on for their data.  It was to Florida's covid dashboard. Nowhere on the link, that I could find, was there anything, at all, that backed up their claim.  It was worthless.  I did another search and found a headline that read "Florida cases go up but hospitalizations remain steady".  Sounded better and I did the same thing by clicking on their link.  Their link went to the AHCA Emergency Status System, which I am sure the doctors will attest is a much, much more reliable figure.  They show Miami-Dade at 85% capacity and, essentially, unchanged from a month ago.  Further, they say the ICU capacity is typically at 90% and since they started elective surgeries again, a large percentage of the current ICU patients have no connection to Covid.  

It is just getting really, really, hard to get accurate information from news sites.

It's been exceptionally difficult to get accurate and up to date data on COVID, Trump took the CDC public data down and it is no longer available. And his administration made no effort to aggregate data from local sources into a single public resource. That's literally the job of the FEDERAL government - to bind together states and use their collective resources and info to better the whole of all the states. 

And onto your points:

1) At a .68% fatality rate, COVID sounds pretty mild right? Let's break the numbers down. There were about 5.4 Million students in Texas. Assuming a 15% positive COVID test rate (per John's Hopkins data for Texas) that's 810,000 kids with COVID. At a .68% fatality rate, that's 5,508 children dead to COVID in just Texas. It's not that it's being risk adverse, it's that if every school district was virtually guaranteed to have at least one child die to COVID (only 1227 districts in TX), you're not going to get many parents to trust schools with their children's health and safety. Five thousand dead kids just so parents can get free day care. We shouldn't be choosing dead children.

2) I actually agree with you on news coverage, there's too much noise and not enough information. But the solution to this isn't less noise, it's more information. And as I mentioned prior, there's only one group with the ability, tools, and power to collect and disseminate that information. Hell, states have been actively manipulating numbers to make them appear better than they are. The president did it just yesterday in his Chris Wallace interview, and even had a misleading chart printed to show it handy. 

I'd fucking LOVE to have more information and hard data on COVID. But those with the ability to provide it have made no bones about their position to do so.

[Hookah Horns 3083]

10 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Not going to go through the entire thread so I apologize if this has been covered.  I am sure it has been pointed out that getting real and accurate data on covid is pretty difficult.  So there are 2 parts to my post.

1) School's Opening- People are just tearing into politicians about re-opening schools and it just seems completely political at this point.  Not a left or right thing, but both sides are total hypocrites when it comes to "trusting the science".  The CDC, in the latest update I can find which was July 10, is now estimating that the covid infection fatality rate is .68%.  Pretty low number.  Further, the CDC acknowledges that older people with preexisting issues skew the number higher and that younger people most likely have a covid infection fatality rate of less than .3%.  Obviously, the rate is not zero but it will never be zero even with Covid gone.  If a parent is overly concerned that their child might be the unlucky .3% then, by all means, they should keep their child at home.  But the vast majority of people will send their kids to school with a fatality rate of just .3%.  If we are truly to believe the science, then why would we close elementary and high schools?  I understand the possible impact on teachers and staff and do not have an issue with any teacher/staff that is over 60 or has any underlying medical issues being given time off, with full pay, if they choose.  But 90% of the school staff can safely return to work.  And by safely, I mean they aren't going to die.  The may get sick but people miss work for sickness everyday.

2) News Coverage- Please do not turn this into a fox/cnn/msnbc/breitbart whatever debate.  It is not that.  It is just simply amazing that the reporting is so varied.  I am saying all news agencies want to create sensational headlines to get eyes and they all manipulate the data to that end.  As an example, I went to one prominent news site and the headline was (paraphrase) Miami-Dade ICU beds over 130% due to Covid.  Sounded horrible so I read the article and then clicked on the link they were relying on for their data.  It was to Florida's covid dashboard. Nowhere on the link, that I could find, was there anything, at all, that backed up their claim.  It was worthless.  I did another search and found a headline that read "Florida cases go up but hospitalizations remain steady".  Sounded better and I did the same thing by clicking on their link.  Their link went to the AHCA Emergency Status System, which I am sure the doctors will attest is a much, much more reliable figure.  They show Miami-Dade at 85% capacity and, essentially, unchanged from a month ago.  Further, they say the ICU capacity is typically at 90% and since they started elective surgeries again, a large percentage of the current ICU patients have no connection to Covid.  

It is just getting really, really, hard to get accurate information from news sites.

1. A 0.3% chance of dying and an even higher one for having serious illness are odds I probably wouldn't take if I didn't have to. 

2. Regardless of the fatality rate, the reason to close schools is to limit the spread of the virus. 

3. Many of the 90% of school staff that you estimate can return to work with no risk other than a basic illness have families that you don't seem to account for.

4. In your news example, as you've written it, it seems you're conflating Miami/Florida stats as well as ICU bed occupancy/hospitalization rare. 

[TexLonghorn 5664]

19 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Everyone is pissed off because we still have this virus killing 1000+/day.  We can’t go anywhere, we’re banned from the Bahamas and all of Europe.  But the guy we’ve been relying on for information over the past 5 months to help fix this is throwing out a first pitch?  Seems tone deaf. 

...unless he follows it up with something like: "I am happy to be here today to throw out the first pitch for my favorite team, and to get the opportunity again to tell the American people that, with proper social distancing, and by taking sufficient personal safety measures, like wearing this protective face mask I have on, we can still do a lot of the activities that we are used to doing.  We don't want the American people to shut themselves off from everything - that's not the goal - but we do want everyone to take every step they can to reduce the spread of COVID-19.  Taking care of your own actions is the first step in taking care of others - your children, your parents, your grandparents.  The World Series-wining Nationals here today have shown what can be accomplished by working together, and together with the American people, as a team, we can get this virus under control."

[Hookah Horns 3083]

11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

He’s a government face man during this pandemic whether he likes it or not.  Right now, our situation with covid-19 has never been worse.  It sends a bad message IMO. You’re free to disagree and I completely understand the sympathy for Fauci.  The man has the worst job in America right now.  Throwing out a first pitch isn’t that big of a deal but I’m like “WTF dude?” 

I honestly was only trying to understand your argument. I'm still not sure I understand what bad message it sends. 

I don't see much difference between this and Bush throwing the first pitch at a NYY game after 9/11. I have no problem with either. People like to rally around leaders who try to keep them safe.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

2 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

I honestly was only trying to understand your argument. I'm still not sure I understand what bad message it sends. 

That things are okay enough for Dr. Fauci to go to a baseball game and throw out a first pitch. Things are very far from okay.  Things are spiraling out of control fast.  Why is this concept difficult? 

[Dark Horse 2280]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That things are okay enough for Dr. Fauci to go to a baseball game and throw out a first pitch. Things are very far from okay.  Things are spiraling out of control fast.  Why is this concept difficult? 

Because your argument is retarded. 

[Hookah Horns 3083]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That things are okay enough for Dr. Fauci to go to a baseball game and throw out a first pitch. Things are very far from okay.  Things are spiraling out of control fast.  Why is this concept difficult? 

Because I don't see how it says that things are OK. Just like how I didn't see GWB's first pitch as a message that the two towers still smoldering nearby was okay. I see it as "we're in a huge battle right now and this guy is a leader trying to help us win it."

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

5 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

Because I don't see how it says that things are OK. Just like how I didn't see GWB's first pitch as a message that the two towers still smoldering nearby was okay. I see it as "we're in a huge battle right now and this guy is a leader trying to help us win it."

I get it.  That’s how you perceive it and how you imagine most others perceive it.  I disagree with that perception but this is a silly debate and I’m not dying on Fauci first pitch hill.  To each his own.  Everyone wants this shit to be over and to get back to some kind of normal life. 

Edited July 20, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[jimmyjazz 45909]

Man, I gotta tell you, seeing Fauci throw out the first pitch would be a breath of fresh air.  I don't care if he plonks it into the dirt or sails it into the net.  It makes him human.

You seem to have a pathological need to find the most trivial things to get worked up about.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

He was quite clear in a recent (last week I believe) interview (this part of the interview related to schools):
 

Quote

JOHN WHYTE: You know, what's on everyone's mind right now is the reopening of schools and having to make decisions now when they don't know what things are going to look like in late August or September. Can you talk a little bit about, you know, what we know about COVID in children, and how parents, we have a lot of parents that-- that watch the show, how parents can make decisions about whether or not to send their kids back to school?

 

Quote

 

ANTHONY FAUCI: Great. That's a critical question, because it's on everybody's minds right now. So the way I look at it, I want to go to 40,000 feet and say, let's take a concept. And in my mind and the mind of-- of people who really care about this, like representatives in the American Academy of Pediatrics, who say the default position is that we should try to the best of our ability to get the children back to school and keep the schools open because of the considerable deleterious downstream ripple effect negative consequences of keeping the kids out of school.

That's a default. But it really is going to depend on what the viral activity is in the place that you are right now. So there are some counties, you know, we have 3,007 counties in the United States. Google it. I didn't know that.

JOHN WHYTE: I did not know that. That's good to know. All right.

ANTHONY FAUCI: And as a matter of fact, as a matter of fact, there are some counties where there's so little viral activity, you could just say, don't worry about it. Go back to school. But there are others, and I think these are the ones that you're referring to, where there's enough activity where you've got to make a choice.

And the choice can either be, don't bring the kids back or, preferably, bring them back in a way that is very, very geared towards guaranteeing their safety, and their welfare, and the safety and the welfare of the teachers. And that might be simple logistic things, like spacing of desks, alternating schedules, and cleaning down the classes.

Outside as much as you possibly can versus inside. There are creative ways of doing that. I think to say it's unidimensional is missing the point. To say, we are going to open up schools in the United States or not. That doesn't make any sense, because we're such a big, big country, that things are going to be different in one region versus the other. But getting back to what I said. The default should be, try as best as possible to get the children back to school.

JOHN WHYTE: Does it matter by age? We need to be more focused on our younger kids getting back to school because there may be less transmission, they don't really serve as a vector as opposed to some of the older kids?

ANTHONY FAUCI: Well, you know, that's a good point. And-- and we, you know, there's not a lot of data, even though there's a lot of anecdotes. There's not a lot of data on the infection susceptibility of kids and how well or not they transmit to adults. That's the big question.

We're doing a study at NIH that we started on May 1 called the HERO study, which is Human Epidemiology, et cetera, et cetera, looking at 6,000 people in 2,000 families to look at the incidence and the prevalence of infection in children.

What the relationship between their infection and family members, do they transmit it to the family or does the family transmitted to them, what is the impact of having underlying asthma and underlying allergic conditions, et cetera. So this is an ongoing study that's going to answer the questions that you and I are asking but we don't have an answer to.

 

Essentially, I believe he is correct. It is not a one size fits all, nor is it a flip-the-switch and we all go back to school. There is also the issue of portability. What do you do when parents decide, "hey! let's leave virus-ravaged X and go to Y so our family will be away from it all" and then inadvertently bring the virus with them. Like a lot of people did over spring break.

Edited July 20, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins
Edit

[Hookah Horns 3083]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

I get it.  That’s how you perceive it and how you imagine most others perceive it.  I disagree with that perception but this is a silly debate and I’m not dying on Fauci first pitch hill.  To each his own.  Everyone wants this shit to be over and get back to some kind of normal life. 

Again, I wasn't trying to debate anything. I simply asked you to explain your viewpoint and then I answered your question as to why I had trouble understanding what you were trying to say. 

[SizzleChest 8283]

30 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

He’s a government face man during this pandemic whether he likes it or not.  Right now, our situation with covid-19 has never been worse.  It sends a bad message IMO. You’re free to disagree and I completely understand the sympathy for Fauci.  The man has the worst job in America right now.  Throwing out a first pitch isn’t that big of a deal but I’m like “WTF dude?” 

So, playing baseball again is the trough of the pandemic?  Shit, man, I hate MLB, but a lot of people like it and need sports besides anal ring toss and futbol.  Anything that promotes mask use and other universal precautions is a good thing.  It also is a knife in Trump's fat thigh.

You need to fucking get over yourself.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Man, I gotta tell you, seeing Fauci throw out the first pitch would be a breath of fresh air.  I don't care if he plonks it into the dirt or sails it into the net.  It makes him human.

You seem to have a pathological need to find the most trivial things to get worked up about.

Best part of Fauci throwing out the first pitch is it means dotard isn't throwing out the first pitch.

[Dark Horse 2280]

41 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Not going to go through the entire thread so I apologize if this has been covered.  I am sure it has been pointed out that getting real and accurate data on covid is pretty difficult.  So there are 2 parts to my post.

1) School's Opening- People are just tearing into politicians about re-opening schools and it just seems completely political at this point.  Not a left or right thing, but both sides are total hypocrites when it comes to "trusting the science".  The CDC, in the latest update I can find which was July 10, is now estimating that the covid infection fatality rate is .68%.  Pretty low number.  Further, the CDC acknowledges that older people with preexisting issues skew the number higher and that younger people most likely have a covid infection fatality rate of less than .3%.  Obviously, the rate is not zero but it will never be zero even with Covid gone.  If a parent is overly concerned that their child might be the unlucky .3% then, by all means, they should keep their child at home.  But the vast majority of people will send their kids to school with a fatality rate of just .3%.  If we are truly to believe the science, then why would we close elementary and high schools?  I understand the possible impact on teachers and staff and do not have an issue with any teacher/staff that is over 60 or has any underlying medical issues being given time off, with full pay, if they choose.  But 90% of the school staff can safely return to work.  And by safely, I mean they aren't going to die.  The may get sick but people miss work for sickness everyday.

2) News Coverage- Please do not turn this into a fox/cnn/msnbc/breitbart whatever debate.  It is not that.  It is just simply amazing that the reporting is so varied.  I am saying all news agencies want to create sensational headlines to get eyes and they all manipulate the data to that end.  As an example, I went to one prominent news site and the headline was (paraphrase) Miami-Dade ICU beds over 130% due to Covid.  Sounded horrible so I read the article and then clicked on the link they were relying on for their data.  It was to Florida's covid dashboard. Nowhere on the link, that I could find, was there anything, at all, that backed up their claim.  It was worthless.  I did another search and found a headline that read "Florida cases go up but hospitalizations remain steady".  Sounded better and I did the same thing by clicking on their link.  Their link went to the AHCA Emergency Status System, which I am sure the doctors will attest is a much, much more reliable figure.  They show Miami-Dade at 85% capacity and, essentially, unchanged from a month ago.  Further, they say the ICU capacity is typically at 90% and since they started elective surgeries again, a large percentage of the current ICU patients have no connection to Covid.  

It is just getting really, really, hard to get accurate information from news sites.

Miami-Dade’s website is pretty clear that their ICU percentage does not include converted ICU capacity. They are definitely in surge capacity.   They even state that they get their numbers directly from the facilities and cannot audit the information. 
 

I don’t know what else you want. 

[sheeeit 129]

6 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

1. A 0.3% chance of dying and an even higher one for having serious illness are odds I probably wouldn't take if I didn't have to. 

As mentioned, I would not fault anyone for keeping their child at home, but I think you probably represent the vast minority.  Also, the numbers are just not there to support closing schools.  For instance, in California, people under the age of 18 make up 22% of the total population.  As of 7/19/20 ZERO people under the age of 18 have died from covid in California.  Based on the Texas dashboard (hard to trust it) there have been ZERO covid deaths in Texas under 18.  I hate trying to compare covid to the flu because they are different, but people under 18 die of the flu all the time and we do not cancel school during flu season.  Right now, no kids have died of covid.

16 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

2. Regardless of the fatality rate, the reason to close schools is to limit the spread of the virus. 

I get this angle but it just does not jive with reality.  Kids are not staying at home.  Kids parents are not staying at home.  We shouldn't have lame measures.  if we are truly scared of the disease as a country we should shut everything down.  But unless every single person obeys and every person from other countries obeys then the virus is going to remain.  So have to open cautiously.  Opening schools is extremely cautious.  The Pediatric Doctor association has no qualms with schools opening.  I am quite certain many of those pediatricians have kids of their own.  Again, we either trust the science/doctors or we don't.  If the pediatricians say open the schools, we should open the schools.

According to the pediatricians also, kids are very unlikely to be contagious.  Scientifically speaking and medically speaking, teachers and staff are much more likely to get covid from the grocery store than from a kid at school.  Thats according to the science.

22 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

3. Many of the 90% of school staff that you estimate can return to work with no risk other than a basic illness have families that you don't seem to account for.

Of course I account for them.  Do you think most school staff are currently sitting in their houses?  They are not.  As I mentioned, if a teacher is worried for themselves or a high risk family member or whatever, then let them stay home.  

24 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

4. In your news example, as you've written it, it seems you're conflating Miami/Florida stats as well as ICU bed occupancy/hospitalization rare. 

Not sure how I conflated anything.  But perhaps it read differently to you?

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

I am pretty certain my kids won't die from COVID if they contracted it at school.  I'm not so certain they wouldn't pass it on to my mom and kill her if they contracted it at school.

[kevwun 15777]

For fucks sake, they played baseball during WWII.  Fauci throwing out the first pitch at a Nats game is beyond a non-issue.

Edited July 20, 2020 by kevwun

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Trade Fauci for Trump throwing out the first pitch and tell me you’d feel the same. 

[4th&Five 41526]

That would be even better!

[Hookah Horns 3083]

21 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

As mentioned, I would not fault anyone for keeping their child at home, but I think you probably represent the vast minority.  Also, the numbers are just not there to support closing schools.  For instance, in California, people under the age of 18 make up 22% of the total population.  As of 7/19/20 ZERO people under the age of 18 have died from covid in California.  Based on the Texas dashboard (hard to trust it) there have been ZERO covid deaths in Texas under 18.  I hate trying to compare covid to the flu because they are different, but people under 18 die of the flu all the time and we do not cancel school during flu season.  Right now, no kids have died of covid.

I get this angle but it just does not jive with reality.  Kids are not staying at home.  Kids parents are not staying at home.  We shouldn't have lame measures.  if we are truly scared of the disease as a country we should shut everything down.  But unless every single person obeys and every person from other countries obeys then the virus is going to remain.  So have to open cautiously.  Opening schools is extremely cautious.  The Pediatric Doctor association has no qualms with schools opening.  I am quite certain many of those pediatricians have kids of their own.  Again, we either trust the science/doctors or we don't.  If the pediatricians say open the schools, we should open the schools.

According to the pediatricians also, kids are very unlikely to be contagious.  Scientifically speaking and medically speaking, teachers and staff are much more likely to get covid from the grocery store than from a kid at school.  Thats according to the science.

Of course I account for them.  Do you think most school staff are currently sitting in their houses?  They are not.  As I mentioned, if a teacher is worried for themselves or a high risk family member or whatever, then let them stay home.  

Not sure how I conflated anything.  But perhaps it read differently to you?

It's fallacious reasoning to use the fact we can't totally prevent people from spreading it to conclude we shouldn't try to limit it as much as possible.

I'm not saying I have the right answer to the school question. I don't even have kids. There are real downsides to keeping them out of school. I simply don't think your reasoning is compelling because the concern is not just the health of kids, but limiting the transmission of the virus generally. 

You said your two articles had titles of "Miami-Dade ICU beds over 130% due to Covid" and "Florida cases go up but hospitalizations remain steady" and implied that you found them contradictory. But those could both be true. 

Anyway, the fact is that hospital reporting has been spotty across the country, as has the aggregation of it. The media shouldn't be faulted for telling people what the public data says. 

Edited July 20, 2020 by Hookah Horns

[kevwun 15777]

I would love that because the chances of Trump looking like a jackass are really good.

[sheeeit 129]

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I am pretty certain my kids won't die from COVID if they contracted it at school.  I'm not so certain they wouldn't pass it on to my mom and kill her if they contracted it at school.

This is kind of the rub.  Although the science is relatively new, the doctor say transference from kids to adults is very rare.  But I understand your point.  My question would be what is in the best interest of the whole.  If your mom is compromised, she really should not be around them at all right now unless they have been strictly quarantined since February.  But is school more important for kids or being able to be hugged by their grandparent?  I think that is a personal choice.  I think most would say school is more important, certainly in the short term.  So maybe grandparents will have to social distance from their grandkids for a period of time.  And, again, if the childs primary care giver is compromised then that kid may be best to stay at home.  But that is the extreme outlier.  It only really applies if that care giver is strictly quarantining.  If not, and virtually no one is, then they are at risk everyday for covid in greater percentages than getting it from their child.

[TexLonghorn 5664]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Trade Fauci for Trump throwing out the first pitch and tell me you’d feel the same. 

Fauci doesn't have a history of ignoring the pandemic, directly disregarding info about it, communicating false and dangerous methods to counter it, and going out for multiple golf outings during it.  Trump does.

[TexLonghorn 5664]

2 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

This is kind of the rub.  Although the science is relatively new, the doctor say transference from kids to adults is very rare.  But I understand your point.  My question would be what is in the best interest of the whole.  If your mom is compromised, she really should not be around them at all right now unless they have been strictly quarantined since February.  But is school more important for kids or being able to be hugged by their grandparent?  I think that is a personal choice.  I think most would say school is more important, certainly in the short term.  So maybe grandparents will have to social distance from their grandkids for a period of time.  And, again, if the childs primary care giver is compromised then that kid may be best to stay at home.  But that is the extreme outlier.  It only really applies if that care giver is strictly quarantining.  If not, and virtually no one is, then they are at risk everyday for covid in greater percentages than getting it from their child.

So no regard for the teachers, custodians, administration, bus drivers, etc?  Just grandparents and compromised care givers.

[henrygandorf 29190]

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Trade Fauci for Trump throwing out the first pitch and tell me you’d feel the same. 

if he had any type of political instinct rattling around in that pop-tart on top of his neck, he would beg to throw out the first pitch.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Y’all win, I’m an idiot.  I’m so sorry I derailed the thread with this nonsense.

[sheeeit 129]

5 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

It's fallacious reasoning to use the fact we can't totally prevent people from spreading it to conclude we shouldn't try to limit it as much as possible.

I'm not saying I have the right answer to the school question. I don't even have kids. There are real downsides to keeping them out of school. I simply don't think your reasoning is compelling because the concern is not just the health of kids, but limiting the transmission of the virus generally. 

You said your two articles had titles of "Miami-Dade ICU beds over 130% due to Covid" and "Florida cases go up but hospitalizations remain steady" and implied that you found them contradictory. But those could both be true (if it was possible to have more than 100% of something). 

Ok.  It is very easy for people to disagree on this subject.  Currently, the best available science says kids rarely transmit the virus.  Virtually every pediatric association is recommending schools opening.  I feel pretty certain these pediatricians understand the need to keep the spread down but, based on the actual science, they say the risk of the virus spreading or causing greater harm is very low.

I get you now on the articles.  Yes the headline said Florida so I went to the source data and found the specific rate for Miami-Dade so I could compare it to the other headline.  

[Continental Op 3934]

Hugo's new hard on for hating Fauci is weird.  

[sheeeit 129]

5 minutes ago, TexLonghorn said:

So no regard for the teachers, custodians, administration, bus drivers, etc?  Just grandparents and compromised care givers.

That was fully addressed above.  I was responding to a specific post. 

In short, there is no greater risk to school staff than any other profession.  We still have regular bus drivers going to work.  We still have almost all businesses open for work.  

[henrygandorf 29190]

3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

 

"many people say..."

on last week tonight last night, there was a segment about conspiracy theories, and an accurate clip dropped in there from fuckhead rush limbaugh, about how trump always says crazy shit, but in a smart way, by labeling it "some people are saying" or "a lot of folks believe" and never really linking himself directly to the wacky shit he's legitimizing.

and now, of course, when it's something he actually should link himself to, he's still too much of a fucking pussy to do it.  in the middle of a pandemic, the president should say, "it's patriotic to wear a mask, and if you love this country, you'll wear a mask just like me."  but no, of course not.  he's too scared to alienate his idiotic base and their "freedoms" so he won't even take a fucking stand on this.  to say nothing of the fact that he's done a complete 180 on mask-wearing (like everyone predicted) but he'll never admit that either.

once again, joe biden's best political operative has been, and will continue to be, donald j trump.  keep it up, buddy.

[Hookah Horns 3083]

3 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Ok.  It is very easy for people to disagree on this subject.  Currently, the best available science says kids rarely transmit the virus.  Virtually every pediatric association is recommending schools opening.  I feel pretty certain these pediatricians understand the need to keep the spread down but, based on the actual science, they say the risk of the virus spreading or causing greater harm is very low.

I get you now on the articles.  Yes the headline said Florida so I went to the source data and found the specific rate for Miami-Dade so I could compare it to the other headline.  

You may have missed it, but a new large scale South Korean study that came out this week concluded that kids > 10 years spread it just as much as adults. 

Younger kids spread covid about half as much. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

4 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Hugo's new hard on for hating Fauci is weird.  

Yeah not seeing the angle here.

All I know is Fauci throwing out the first ball will drive trump nuts, so it’s obviously a good thing.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Y’all win, I’m an idiot.  I’m so sorry I derailed the thread with this nonsense.

Back to repenting for you my friend. Water, bread, and prayer until the covid is gone

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

25 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Trade Fauci for Trump throwing out the first pitch and tell me you’d feel the same. 

I would love for dotard to throw out the first pitch under the loudest chorus of boooooos known to man.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

11 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Hugo's new hard on for hating Fauci is weird.  

It should be directed towards Birx 

[Hookah Horns 3083]

12 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

"many people say..."

on last week tonight last night, there was a segment about conspiracy theories, and an accurate clip dropped in there from fuckhead rush limbaugh, about how trump always says crazy shit, but in a smart way, by labeling it "some people are saying" or "a lot of folks believe" and never really linking himself directly to the wacky shit he's legitimizing.

and now, of course, when it's something he actually should link himself to, he's still too much of a fucking pussy to do it.  in the middle of a pandemic, the president should say, "it's patriotic to wear a mask, and if you love this country, you'll wear a mask just like me."  but no, of course not.  he's too scared to alienate his idiotic base and their "freedoms" so he won't even take a fucking stand on this.  to say nothing of the fact that he's done a complete 180 on mask-wearing (like everyone predicted) but he'll never admit that either.

once again, joe biden's best political operative has been, and will continue to be, donald j trump.  keep it up, buddy.

I couldn't believe Rush said something accurate and critical of Dotard.

Twas a really good episode, but the advice to counter CTs by pointing the idiots to "reputable news outlets" made me laugh. If only it was that easy. 

[Hookah Horns 3083]

19 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

You may have missed it, but a new large scale South Korean study that came out this week concluded that kids > 10 years spread it just as much as adults. 

Younger kids spread covid about half as much. 

I want to clarify that the study and conclusions I referenced above were limited to only symptomatic kids. 

https://nyti.ms/3jpd7cb

[Degenerate Gardner 4085]

54 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That things are okay enough for Dr. Fauci to go to a baseball game and throw out a first pitch. Things are very far from okay.  Things are spiraling out of control fast.  Why is this concept difficult? 

Fauci's a small guy but even he can't fit in the tiny box you've constructed. Perhaps the good doctor hopes to improve national morale and engender cooperation while modeling appropriate protective gear and social distancing. Finding fault here is a reach.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

15 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

That was fully addressed above.  I was responding to a specific post. 

In short, there is no greater risk to school staff than any other profession.  We still have regular bus drivers going to work.  We still have almost all businesses open for work.  

That's precisely why we're in this mess. People needed to get their hair and nails done and wanted to start shopping again. So we opened too soon and without enough testing capacity and poor contact tracing.

So your solution is to open things up even more by sending kids to school? This isn't an oil well on fire that can be put out by blowing it up. We need to smother it by limiting contact.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

1 hour ago, sheeeit said:

As mentioned, I would not fault anyone for keeping their child at home, but I think you probably represent the vast minority.  Also, the numbers are just not there to support closing schools.  For instance, in California, people under the age of 18 make up 22% of the total population.  As of 7/19/20 ZERO people under the age of 18 have died from covid in California.  Based on the Texas dashboard (hard to trust it) there have been ZERO covid deaths in Texas under 18.  I hate trying to compare covid to the flu because they are different, but people under 18 die of the flu all the time and we do not cancel school during flu season.  Right now, no kids have died of covid.

I get this angle but it just does not jive with reality.  Kids are not staying at home.  Kids parents are not staying at home.  We shouldn't have lame measures.  if we are truly scared of the disease as a country we should shut everything down.  But unless every single person obeys and every person from other countries obeys then the virus is going to remain.  So have to open cautiously.  Opening schools is extremely cautious.  The Pediatric Doctor association has no qualms with schools opening.  I am quite certain many of those pediatricians have kids of their own.  Again, we either trust the science/doctors or we don't.  If the pediatricians say open the schools, we should open the schools.

According to the pediatricians also, kids are very unlikely to be contagious.  Scientifically speaking and medically speaking, teachers and staff are much more likely to get covid from the grocery store than from a kid at school.  Thats according to the science.

Of course I account for them.  Do you think most school staff are currently sitting in their houses?  They are not.  As I mentioned, if a teacher is worried for themselves or a high risk family member or whatever, then let them stay home.  

Not sure how I conflated anything.  But perhaps it read differently to you?

Perhaps if you did not, go back to the Dr Fauci interview I posted above. He is in favor of it being a decision based on outbreaks. There are plenty of places that are not in the dire straits that have stressed health care. He is saying to use the data and work with it slowly and responsibly. Problem has been that too many favor the all or nothing approach. 
Compromise is not a bad thing. 

[Royalfan5 2354]

18 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

That's precisely why we're in this mess. People needed to get their hair and nails done and wanted to start shopping again. So we opened too soon and without enough testing capacity and poor contact tracing.

So your solution is to open things up even more by sending kids to school? This isn't an oil well on fire that can be put out by blowing it up. We need to smother it by limiting contact.

If you remember when everyone got Covid-19 in packing plants and meat prices got all fucky, remember that all those meat packing plant workers spent a lot of time shoulder to shoulder in sealed climate controlled facilities. Schools might not be as cold inside but there’s a lot of similarities in the amount of human contact. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

That was fully addressed above.  I was responding to a specific post. 
In short, there is no greater risk to school staff than any other profession.  We still have regular bus drivers going to work.  We still have almost all businesses open for work.  

Regular businesses are full of only adults who understand what social distancing is.

And who don’t share juice boxes.

Who don’t sneeze on others.

Who won’t fall on the ground and then run up and grab the nearest adult.

Adults that can be trusted.

A classroom chock full of 9 year olds is a whole different animal.

One infected adult in an office setting is not the same as one infected kid in a classroom.

If you’re making the decisions about schools by using an office as the template, you’re going to make a bad decision.

Schools are a unique setting and need unique solutions.

[BradInATX 9208]

2 hours ago, sheeeit said:

Not going to go through the entire thread so I apologize if this has been covered.  I am sure it has been pointed out that getting real and accurate data on covid is pretty difficult.  So there are 2 parts to my post.

1) School's Opening- People are just tearing into politicians about re-opening schools and it just seems completely political at this point.  Not a left or right thing, but both sides are total hypocrites when it comes to "trusting the science".  The CDC, in the latest update I can find which was July 10, is now estimating that the covid infection fatality rate is .68%.  Pretty low number.  Further, the CDC acknowledges that older people with preexisting issues skew the number higher and that younger people most likely have a covid infection fatality rate of less than .3%.  Obviously, the rate is not zero but it will never be zero even with Covid gone.  If a parent is overly concerned that their child might be the unlucky .3% then, by all means, they should keep their child at home.  But the vast majority of people will send their kids to school with a fatality rate of just .3%.  If we are truly to believe the science, then why would we close elementary and high schools?  I understand the possible impact on teachers and staff and do not have an issue with any teacher/staff that is over 60 or has any underlying medical issues being given time off, with full pay, if they choose.  But 90% of the school staff can safely return to work.  And by safely, I mean they aren't going to die.  The may get sick but people miss work for sickness everyday.

2) News Coverage- Please do not turn this into a fox/cnn/msnbc/breitbart whatever debate.  It is not that.  It is just simply amazing that the reporting is so varied.  I am saying all news agencies want to create sensational headlines to get eyes and they all manipulate the data to that end.  As an example, I went to one prominent news site and the headline was (paraphrase) Miami-Dade ICU beds over 130% due to Covid.  Sounded horrible so I read the article and then clicked on the link they were relying on for their data.  It was to Florida's covid dashboard. Nowhere on the link, that I could find, was there anything, at all, that backed up their claim.  It was worthless.  I did another search and found a headline that read "Florida cases go up but hospitalizations remain steady".  Sounded better and I did the same thing by clicking on their link.  Their link went to the AHCA Emergency Status System, which I am sure the doctors will attest is a much, much more reliable figure.  They show Miami-Dade at 85% capacity and, essentially, unchanged from a month ago.  Further, they say the ICU capacity is typically at 90% and since they started elective surgeries again, a large percentage of the current ICU patients have no connection to Covid.  

It is just getting really, really, hard to get accurate information from news sites.

 

I don't agree with all of this post, but I'm repping it just for some interesting and new perspective presented in a coherent manner.

Totally agree with your #2, though I have some pretty strong issues with your #1. I would not send a kid to school with a 1 in 333 chance of dying, which is what a 0.3% IFR would give them (assuming they catch it). 300 to 1 is roughly the same odds that Joe Burrow had to win the Heisman prior to 2019. No fucking way I'm sending my kid into a 1 in 300 chance. Yeah, it's extraordinarily unlikely, but 1 in 300 is not so near-zero that parents are going to be comfortable with it.

That said - I think the rate for pre-pubescent kids is probably lower than 0.3%. No idea what it is, though.

Also, the reasoning for closing school for older kids is pretty obvious. They're more likely to be successful at distance learning, their parents can still work with them at home, and there's a lot of data that shows that they spread the disease at a higher rate than younger kids do.

Edited July 21, 2020 by BradInATX

[Bartles 769]

I don't get why people start their arguments with the death rate so much. We're not storming Omaha Beach here. There are infinite options for keeping almost everybody safe to buy time for our medical community to overcome the incompetence of the federal government.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

31 minutes ago, Bartles said:

I don't get why people start their arguments with the death rate so much. We're not storming Omaha Beach here. There are infinite options for keeping almost everybody safe to buy time for our medical community to overcome the incompetence of the federal government.

The problem is that none of those options are working. The ones that were working were widely panned by the hair and nails crowd, shit even now the mask pushback is a real thing. When it comes to schools those little booger factories are super spreader events that would make a Westlake beer pong party blush. 

The reason the death rate is mentioned or led with is because the numbers could be staggering. In the US we have about 60m kids under the age of 18. At the .03% rate that's still 180,000 bodies, even if it's 1/100th as deadly we're talking about 1800 dead children from purely avoidable circumstances. Then when you factor in the spread from those infected children it doesn't take long to see that it could get way worse really fast.

[Beau Vine 54215]

10 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I thought the “free markets” were supposed to solve this. 

Free markets do not work when there are externalities; if you took an econ class without learning that, you should have failed.  And there's pretty much no better example of an externality than an infectious disease.

[Beau Vine 54215]

55 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Regular businesses are full of only adults who understand what social distancing is.

And who don’t share juice boxes.

Who don’t sneeze on others.

Who won’t fall on the ground and then run up and grab the nearest adult.

Adults that can be trusted.

A classroom chock full of 9 year olds is a whole different animal.

One infected adult in an office setting is not the same as one infected kid in a classroom.

If you’re making the decisions about schools by using an office as the template, you’re going to make a bad decision.

Schools are a unique setting and need unique solutions.

Schools are basically bars for liittle kids.  Opening schools is going o have the same effect as opening bars.