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Mrs Whiggins

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I'd just like to point out that neither myself nor any of my fellow nurses, fellow advanced nurse practitioners, and other healthcare providers ever swore an oath that we would lay down our lives for

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Welp, it finally happened. I snapped in public today. I went into work for a bit this morning because I’m trying to figure out the safest way to host physicians we are recruiting given our CV-19 sit

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I don't really know what to say anymore tbh. What happened last night is hard to put into words for anyone who hasn't worked in a hospital healthcare setting. Just unreal. Everyone is getting fucked.

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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4936

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I think I was at 300K, and that might be too low, too.

I recall the halcyon days when ctj was laughing at my prediction of 50K by some date, and I missed it by a week.  Bless your heart, ctj.

Back in mid-April I downloaded CDC data for H1N1 and available flu numbers for the 2010's plus COVID data from John Hopkins to do my own research since Fox was saying mortality rate was like the flu and MSNBC was saying 2% and I did not buy either.

I took the number of deaths at the time (25K) and tried to predict likely ramp up of COVID-19 between 1/20/2020 and 4/12/2020 by using patterns exhibited by the flu and H1N1. This means that from the start of flu season how many cases does the CDC show that we should usually have after 10 to 12 weeks and not base my numbers on confirmed COVID cases.

1) Based on average flu ramp up of 2010s I predicted we should have 3.1M real cases at the time resulting in 0.8% mortality rate.

2) Based on H1N1 ramp up of 2010s I predicted we should have 3M real cases resulting at the time resulting in 0.8% mortality rate.

3) Based on the worst flu during the 2010s ramp up and I predicted we should have 5.1M real cases at the time resulting in 0.48% mortality rate.

4) Just for good measure I took the number Germany and South Korea were going with at the time of 0.64%.

The average gave me a mortality rate of 0.68% and if we followed H1N1 the last novel virus and had about 60M people infected in about a year we would have the same by March 2021 we would have 400K+ deaths. In the end I did not want to believe my numbers and the few people I shared it with called me nuts. Since I am no statistician or mathematician just a data warehouse guy I never did follow up to see if my numbers were holding. Well unfortunately the numbers look like they are going to hold and it sucks.

Edited by DanTheHorn
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12002

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Bookman said:

How many people do you know who have actually canceled Thanksgiving and Christmas?

None...

Only slight modifications like limiting total participation. Maybe zooming the oldest member, etc

Edited by Dnaguy
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Captainant

Captainant 27680

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HenryJames said:

 

That's awesome news, but wasn't the Pfizer vaccine the one that needed to be stored in -70C? I'd think that's the larger limiting factor than manufacturing the injections. Most rural counties aren't gonna have easy or fast access to ultra-deep freeze facilities.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26002

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

That's awesome news, but wasn't the Pfizer vaccine the one that needed to be stored in -70C? I'd think that's the larger limiting factor than manufacturing the injections. Most rural counties aren't gonna have easy or fast access to ultra-deep freeze facilities.

Perhaps get them to the hospitals first, use this one for healthcare workers? If the rest of us need to wait, well we have to wait. 

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Captainant

Captainant 27680

Posted
Posted
Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Perhaps get them to the hospitals first, use this one for healthcare workers? If the rest of us need to wait, well we have to wait. 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall discussion about the storage requirement being so cold that many hospitals and even universities don't have the equipment, or have only very small volume of storage that cold

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

That's awesome news, but wasn't the Pfizer vaccine the one that needed to be stored in -70C? I'd think that's the larger limiting factor than manufacturing the injections. Most rural counties aren't gonna have easy or fast access to ultra-deep freeze facilities.

 

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Perhaps get them to the hospitals first, use this one for healthcare workers? If the rest of us need to wait, well we have to wait. 

Yeah you probably won't see this in Loving County by year's end. (Loving always is my fill-in for the most rural county possible but like 99% of Texans, I've never been there.)

There will be relatively few doses available in December so you probably won't even know someone that gets the vaccine at first.  And yes, from what I've heard the initial supply will be for front-line healthcare workers first, perhaps those that haven't gotten COVID, at least recently.  Then maybe expand to older Americans that face the highest risk. Then onto more healthcare workers and so on.

If you're in your 20s or 30s, relatively healthy and not in healthcare, you're looking at a long wait.

Pfizer's vaccine will most likely be more prominent in larger cities. The Moderna vaccine sounds like it will be easier for more rural areas to store. And 2 vaccines that align with voting patterns is a QAnon dream.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26002

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall discussion about the storage requirement being so cold that many hospitals and even universities don't have the equipment, or have only very small volume of storage that cold

Agree, but with a focused distribution it is easier to use existing locations and focus on those that do not have them. Regional Vaccination centers perhaps? 

 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26002

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LONDON (Reuters) - People who’ve had COVID-19 are highly unlikely to contract it again for at least six months after their first infection, according to a British study of healthcare workers on the frontline of fight against the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-reinfection/covid-19-reinfection-unlikely-for-at-least-six-months-study-finds-idUSKBN28015L

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Gap03

Gap03 3308

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, burntorangebongos said:

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I've said it before and I'll say it again - the more Trumpkin politicians that get Covid-19 and survive, the worse off we are. To make a dent in the disinformation bubble, a few of these folks need to die - for the good of the country, of course ...

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again - the more Trumpkin politicians that get Covid-19 and survive, the worse off we are. To make a dent in the disinformation bubble, a few of these folks need to die - for the good of the country, of course ...

Word. Anecdotal evidence is all that matters to these people.  They either need to have their neighbor die, or someone that is *everyones* neighbor needs to die.  Thank you for your tribute senator. 
 

image.gif.2a1338a137af16190a68fe9a931399d0.gif

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!
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PsychMike

PsychMike 1552

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall discussion about the storage requirement being so cold that many hospitals and even universities don't have the equipment, or have only very small volume of storage that cold

Since there is discussion about this limitation (which is a very important limitation), I want to point out/remind that they are addressing this somewhat:

Quote

Based on current projections, the companies expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021. Four of Pfizer’s facilities are part of the manufacturing and supply chain; St. Louis, MO; Andover, MA; and Kalamazoo, MI in the U.S.; and Puurs in Belgium. BioNTech’s German sites will also be leveraged for global supply.

Pfizer is confident in its vast experience, expertise and existing cold-chain infrastructure to distribute the vaccine around the world. The companies have developed specially designed, temperature-controlled thermal shippers utilizing dry ice to maintain temperature conditions of -70°C±10°C. They can be used be as temporary storage units for 15 days by refilling with dry ice. Each shipper contains a GPS-enabled thermal sensor to track the location and temperature of each vaccine shipment across their pre-set routes leveraging Pfizer’s broad distribution network.

Source: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Here's my challenge with Triple's obsession.

I know people working in hospitals right now.  They are demoralized and crushed by the amount of death and suffering they are seeing.  I'm talking life-changing, PTSD shit.  They would do anything -- ANYTHING -- to knock the suffering and death way back.

I am confident that functionally ALL medical professionals are that way.  They would fucking dunk their patients in vats of jello if they had any reason to think it would help.

If HCQ etc. really were the miracle drugs that Triple etc. are promoting......where is the avalanche of treating physicians administering those treatments?

Don't give me big pharma, conspiracies, all that shit.  It's bullshit.  If there are therapies that will save lives, the doctors want to administer them.  They'll go right up against any ethical boundaries, and maybe even cross them slightly, if they can save lives.  

So, why do I think Triple's obsession is bullshit?  Not because I'm any expert at dissecting and understanding studies in medical journals -- I'm not.  Instead, it's because tens of thousands of treating physicians, desperate to save lives, don't share that obsession.  Is that hard scientific reasoning?  Nope.  But it seems like a pretty good go-by in this case.

Regarding medical professionals response, what percentage of all physicians do you think are actually treating covid patients?  And of those docs that are, what percentage are treating covid patients in the outpatient setting as opposed to those sick enough to be admitted?  It's a trick question - throughout this ordeal there has been no early outpatient treatment recommendations for active infection in the US.  You take the small percentage of docs treating outpatient covid with the lack of coordinated early outpatient treatment plan and it's partly why no one is acting and we are failing our people.  It's just one part of the failure that has been our federal non-response. The US has not done the research to answer the important questions.  Full stop.  That funding decision got baked into the plans before March.  Research funding for repurposed therapeutics to reduce covid morbidity and death was an afterthought.  Fed entities were all in for vaccines from the jump.  That plan set a course for disaster when an orange primate decided to toss reason and common sense into the air resulting in an emergent need for safe, cheap, effective therapeutics.

I'm particularly upset this week because I learned of a family relation with covid, in his mid-40's wife and kids, who just spent a month in the hospital in Amarillo and is now at home on oxygen and just barely starting to walk short distances.  In the last 10 days, I've had multiple outpatients and their members get covid.  One middle age man with multiple medical problems called me last Sunday and informed me he caught covid from his covid positive co-worker he carpools with to work.  He sounded like death, feared he was going to die and asked me if there was anything I could do to help.   This guy had been taking VitD3, C, and zinc since March as I'd told all my outpatients to do since this started.  I talked about the options and he chose a 5 day course of HCQ and zithromax.  I called it in to the pharmacy, talked with the pharmacist to make clear the reason for the prescription, and got unquestioned cooperation.  I followed up with him yesterday and he's still sick but sounded a lot better.  Mind you, I'm not a primary care doc, but right now it's blowing up in my community and in my own practice and I'm going to try to help everyone I can.  Even if we never know if it helped, there's no harm in trying.  It's safe.  You risk losing way more by doing nothing.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, kevwun said:

I mean it can't hurt, except for those studies where it did.

Thanks for stating that.  It's a gross misconception that poisoned the well.  One or two (?) studies suggested increased risk starting HCQ only in patients who are late stage covid hospitalized in critical condition.  In over 170 studies worldwide where it's given in the first phase of illness (first week) there is no safety issue.  Zero. none.  The scaremongering is just that.  Instead the evidence is overwhelming, yes overwhelming, in support of early outpatient application.  Ivermectin is showing the same safety and early use efficacy, if not even better than hcq.  ~50% reduction in hospitalization and death.  This isn't based on one or two cherry picked studies, it's the consensus evidence provided by what is approaching 200 studies worldwide.  Safe and effective.

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LonghornSean

LonghornSean 4008

Posted
Posted

I have a morbid fascination with the crazies over at Tigerdroppings

Quote

Thread:

Why are the Dems pushing COVID so hard if they won?

 

Doesn’t make sense to me.
If Biden actually won, you would think the MSM would be pushing a different CV19 narrative. Why all the fear now? Wouldn’t they want Biden to look like the hero?

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

I have a morbid fascination with the crazies over at Tigerdroppings

 

"If Biden actually won, you would think the MSM would be pushing a different CV19 narrative. Why all the fear now? Wouldn’t they want Biden to look like the hero?"

That type of quote explains their thinking. It's not about actually fixing a problem, it's about patting yourself on the back after a nominal effort. I run across people like that in my career. They deploy some project that has almost no value but it sounds great. Then you see them on a panel at a conference talking about how they changed the world.

People like this have no idea about to really lead or create value.

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8343

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Word. Anecdotal evidence is all that matters to these people.  They either need to have their neighbor die, or someone that is *everyones* neighbor needs to die.  Thank you for your tribute senator. 
 

image.gif.2a1338a137af16190a68fe9a931399d0.gif

You sure about that? A number of these people still thought it was a hoax even when they themselves were dying of it.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23477

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, triplehorn said:

I called it in to the pharmacy, talked with the pharmacist to make clear the reason for the prescription, and got unquestioned cooperation. 

I’ll tell you exactly what the person on the other end of the line was thinking as s/he rolled their eyes.  
 

“This dumb fuck psychiatrist calling in combinations of anti infectives to treat an acute covid case is even dumber than the infectious disease doc I was talking to earlier today that was doling out drugs to treat schizoaffective disorder. I hope this patient with multiple comorbidities including CVD and at risk drug interactions doesn’t stroke out on this shit and the board comes after me.”

Edited by Anastasis
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