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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
Just now, Lobo said:

I think of people like my Uncle though in Dripping Springs.  He's 93.  He's still quite lucid at his age and even drives every now and again.  But his daughter, my cousin, believes the vaccine is all part of the hoax.  She doesn't want him to get it.  And if she doesn't confirm his appointment when they call the land-line, and drive him to/from the appt., he won't get it.  If you asked him, he'd say he'd like to get it.  But there's a lot of steps between him saying he'd like the shots, and him actually getting the shots.  There's gonna be a lot of at-risk elderly folks who don't get the shot because their dumbass fucking Qanon kids don't take them to go get it.  I'll bet they number in the millions, throwing off our herd needs even more.

 

Our mother-in-law was starting to lean anti-vax (my SIL is definitely that way and probably got in her ear).

My wife told her she won't be meeting her new grand daughter until she gets the vaccine. 

She is going to get the vaccine now.

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I'd just like to point out that neither myself nor any of my fellow nurses, fellow advanced nurse practitioners, and other healthcare providers ever swore an oath that we would lay down our lives for

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Welp, it finally happened. I snapped in public today. I went into work for a bit this morning because I’m trying to figure out the safest way to host physicians we are recruiting given our CV-19 sit

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I don't really know what to say anymore tbh. What happened last night is hard to put into words for anyone who hasn't worked in a hospital healthcare setting. Just unreal. Everyone is getting fucked.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46131

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

TIL that acknowledging that May and June are actually two distinct months is pedantic.

The IRS is so pedantic! I can't believe they wouldn't buy my argument that May is basically the same thing as April!

Jesus Christ.  The CDC's own words: 

"It typically takes a few weeks for the body to build immunity after vaccination.".

What is "a few weeks" from May 9?  Do you acknowledge that this is only even a close call if 70% immunity is sufficient for herd immunity to take place?  What if 75% immunity is that actual metric?  Why, that would be May 19, so what's "a few weeks' past May 19?

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Jesus Christ.  The CDC's own words: 

"It typically takes a few weeks for the body to build immunity after vaccination.".

What is "a few weeks" from May 9?  Do you acknowledge that this is only even a close call if 70% immunity is sufficient for herd immunity to take place?  What if 75% immunity is that actual metric?  Why, that would be May 19, so what's "a few weeks' past May 19?

 

What if my aunt had balls? Then she'd be my uncle!

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18285

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The vaccine isn't approved for 16 years old and under yet. But even still, May is a lot different than the June 2021 date quoted in that Tweet.

Add 150 days to December 28, 2020 and you get to May 28, 2021. Hitting a milestone on May 28, 2021 is not “a lot different than” hitting that milestone “by June 2021.” They’re practically the same thing.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Add 150 days to December 28, 2020 and you get to May 28, 2021. Hitting a milestone on May 28, 2021 is not “a lot different than” hitting that milestone “by June 2021.” They’re practically the same thing.

You and jimmyjazz are being fucking idiots here. Not everything has to be politically driven. We are in the middle of a pandemic and it's important that our institutions report accurately on the math and science of it. 

May is not June, no matter how hard you try to wishcast it and twist and turn logic to pretend that they are the same thing. 

My argument is "May is not June". Yours is "May is basically June!".

One of these arguments is correct, one of them is not. It's a very binary issue. This isn't difficult. 

 

Edited by BradInATX
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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13073

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

You and jimmyjazz are being fucking idiots here. Not everything has to be politically driven. We are in the middle of a pandemic and it's important that our institutions report accurately on the math and science of it. 

May is not June, no matter how hard you try to wishcast it and twist and turn logic to pretend that they are the same thing. 

My argument is "May is not June". Yours is "May is basically June!".

One of these arguments is correct, one of them is not. It's a very binary issue.

 

Dude you’re the only one being a fucking idiot here. 

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Wanker Bob

Wanker Bob 379

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Come on.  Read what I wrote.  On May 9th, when the 70% metric is hit, those last people who received dose #2 are not yet "immune".  It takes a couple of weeks for them to build up full immunity.  If you want to pick nits and say May 23 is not June 1, fine, you win, but you're taking "pedantic" to new heights, which is not easy to do around here.

I found out the hard way that's precisely what he does. In a tangible way even. 

 

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18285

Posted
Posted
Just now, BradInATX said:

You and jimmyjazz are being fucking idiots here. Not everything has to be politically driven. We are in the middle of a pandemic and it's important that our institutions report accurately on the math and science of it. 

May is not June, no matter how hard you try to wishcast it and twist and turn logic to pretend that they are the same thing. 

My argument is "May is not June". Yours is "May is basically June!".

You are wrong. I am not. 

 

It’s not political. It’s you being pedantic and wrong about some stupid little point you think you’re making, and ignoring the actual words of the tweet. She didn’t say “in June.” She said “by June.” Given that the numbers project herd immunity in late May and given the margins of error in the relevant numbers and thresholds and the delay jimmyjazz notes, “by June” is a reasonable approximate timeframe. She certainly wasn’t way off.

But by all means continue to insist against all evidence that you’ve found some meaningful misrepresentation rather than merely tripped over your own misunderstanding.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted (edited)

Anti-science idiocy is anti-science idiocy, regardless of which side it comes from.

May is not June. Ya'll are embarrassing. You're so conditioned to have to make everything negative because you'd construe anything positive as being supportive of Trump that you're literally trying to alter reality. 

May is not June. When reporting on science, the media should be scientific. You guys can continue to embarrassingly try to change the framework of the conversation (now Brick is analyzing "by" vs. "in" - LMAO), but at the end of the day May is not June. 
 

This type of shit right here is why this board is looked at as such as a cess pool, and not just by Trump supporters. You are literally arguing that May and June are the same thing. I hope you guys don't work in a business where you have meetings, clients, deadlines, or are just generally required to have a concept of time and reality. 

"Sorry boss, I know you said you needed this report in April, but May 3rd is basically April! Stop being so pedantic"

Edited by BradInATX
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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13073

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Anti-science idiocy is anti-science idiocy, regardless of which side it comes from.

May is not June. Ya'll are embarrassing. You're so conditioned to have to make everything negative because you'd construe anything positive as being supportive of Trump that you're literally trying to alter reality. 

May is not June. When reporting on science, the media should be scientific. You guys can continue to embarrassingly try to change the framework of the conversation (now Brick is analyzing "by" vs. "in" - LMAO), but at the end of the day May is not June. 
 

This type of shit right here is why this board is looked at as such as a cess pool, and not just by Trump supporters. You are literally arguing that May and June are the same thing. I hope you guys don't work in a business where you have meetings, clients, deadlines, or are just generally required to have a concept of time and reality.

1) why are you digging in on something so stupid that you’re clearly wrong about? 
2) what do you think “few” means?

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45741

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Posted
26 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Our mother-in-law was starting to lean anti-vax (my SIL is definitely that way and probably got in her ear).

My wife told her she won't be meeting her new grand daughter until she gets the vaccine. 

She is going to get the vaccine now.

I think a lot of the anti-vax and Q people know deep down they are completely full of shit.  We need to put them all in situations where they have to nut up or shut up and I bet the vast majority would back the fuck down like the pussies they are.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

No one has argued that. You have completely misunderstood the difference between the English phrases “by June” and “in June.”

What do you think the difference between "by June" and "in June" is?

 

Here is the history of our conversation:

You: "BUT IT'S TWO DOSES PER PERSON"

Brad quotes his own post showing that you lack reading comprehension given that my first post accounted for that

You: "MAY IS JUNE"

Brad: "May is not June"

You: "'BY JUNE' AND 'IN JUNE' AREN'T THE SAME THING"

I can't wait to see where we go with this. We're getting into the absolute deepest depths of scraping the bottom of the barrel to try to win an absolutely stupid argument.

Edited by BradInATX
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Degenerate Gardner

Degenerate Gardner 4085

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Anti-science idiocy is anti-science idiocy, regardless of which side it comes from.

May is not June. Ya'll are embarrassing. You're so conditioned to have to make everything negative because you'd construe anything positive as being supportive of Trump that you're literally trying to alter reality. 

May is not June. When reporting on science, the media should be scientific. You guys can continue to embarrassingly try to change the framework of the conversation (now Brick is analyzing "by" vs. "in" - LMAO), but at the end of the day May is not June. 
 

This type of shit right here is why this board is looked at as such as a cess pool, and not just by Trump supporters. You are literally arguing that May and June are the same thing. I hope you guys don't work in a business where you have meetings, clients, deadlines, or are just generally required to have a concept of time and reality. 

"Sorry boss, I know you said you needed this report in April, but May 3rd is basically April! Stop being so pedantic"


 

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13073

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Posted
3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What do you think the difference between "by June" and "in June" is?

 

Here is the history of our conversation:

You: "BUT IT'S TWO DOSES PER PERSON"

Brad quotes his own post showing that you lack reading comprehension given that my first post accounted for that

You: "MAY IS JUNE"

Brad: "May is not June"

You: "'BY JUNE' AND 'IN JUNE' AREN'T THE SAME THING"

I can't wait to see where we go with this. [b]We're getting into the absolute deepest depths of scraping the bottom of the barrel to try to win an absolutely stupid argument.[/b]

Yes, you really are.

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kevwun

kevwun 15897

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I think a lot of the anti-vax and Q people know deep down they are completely full of shit.  We need to put them all in situations where they have to nut up or shut up and I bet the vast majority would back the fuck down like the pussies they are.

I know someone who has been on the hoax train for months, who was then sure it was going away after the election that got vaccinated yesterday. 

Edited by kevwun
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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25152

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Posted

So serious question here that isn't May/June related.  We have ~20M confirmed cases in this country.  So making a few assumptions.  I think we all agree that the actual number is something considerably higher.  So let's just be conservative and take that total number up to 40M cases and then at the pace we are on let's take it up to 50M since we are going there with a bullet.  Let's also assume immunity from having it lasts 6-12 months (I know this is a big leap given all the science out there but gotta pick something).  What if any impact do those numbers have on reaching herd immunity through vaccine?  Obviously there will be people who get the vaccine who also had the Covid.  

In any event this roll-out so far is pathetic.  Texas got 240K doses in the first couple of days 2 weeks ago.  We now sit on 470K with over a million "allocated".  As of end of day Sunday 149k doses had reached arms...in 2 weeks.  

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27589

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I am not worried about achieving herd immunity. If this vaccine is even close to 100% affective against symptomatic infection, as the studies indicate, herd immunity won’t matter. Getting the vulnerable and front line / essential workers immunized will ease the stress on the healthcare system. That will happen fairly quickly. I would imagine everyone who wants the vaccine will have it by late spring. The majority of those left will be fine even if they get infected. The fraction who get really sick or die I won’t have much sympathy for. 

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25152

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Back on topic:  is there no hope for us to hit that 3.5 million doses per day rate sometime soon?  Is this just a slow start or is the distribution system horribly fucked for good?

Not as long as we keep worrying about who's arms we are getting it into rather than just getting it into arms.  Specialization is always going to move slower than pooling.   

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27589

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

So serious question here that isn't May/June related.  We have ~20M confirmed cases in this country.  So making a few assumptions.  I think we all agree that the actual number is something considerably higher.  So let's just be conservative and take that total number up to 40M cases and then at the pace we are on let's take it up to 50M since we are going there with a bullet.  Let's also assume immunity from having it lasts 6-12 months (I know this is a big leap given all the science out there but gotta pick something).  What if any impact do those numbers have on reaching herd immunity through vaccine?  Obviously there will be people who get the vaccine who also had the Covid.  

In any event this roll-out so far is pathetic.  Texas got 240K doses in the first couple of days 2 weeks ago.  We now sit on 470K with over a million "allocated".  As of end of day Sunday 149k doses had reached arms...in 2 weeks.  

CDC says 6 cases likely for every confirmed case

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

It would be a fun twist in 2021 if instead of losing the elderly/already sick like Dan Patrick and Kushner suggested, those that die are their idiotic worshippers who were too stupid and obtuse to take seriously both the pandemic and the vaccine.  

I've never liked the corporate cliche "net-net", but it may be appropriate in 2021.  

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18285

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What do you think the difference between "by June" and "in June" is?

 

Here is the history of our conversation:

You: "BUT IT'S TWO DOSES PER PERSON"

Brad quotes his own post showing that you lack reading comprehension given that my first post accounted for that

You: "MAY IS JUNE"

Brad: "May is not June"

You: "'BY JUNE' AND 'IN JUNE' AREN'T THE SAME THING"

I can't wait to see where we go with this. We're getting into the absolute deepest depths of scraping the bottom of the barrel to try to win an absolutely stupid argument.

Yes, I initially misread your first post. Hadn’t had my coffee yet. It happens. 

I initially thought you made one wrong assumption, but it turns out you made a different wrong assumption (specifically, that only adults count for herd immunity). When I ran the numbers after correcting for your error, it was evident that at 3.5 million doses per day the presumed 80% threshold  would be hit in late May. Which I pointed out is “by June.”

That is true both in a strict logical sense and in the typical way we use the English language to express calendar time — that is, if something happens within a month, especially in the latter part of that month, it is common to say it happens “by” the subsequent month.

So what part of that don’t you understand?

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Nivek

Nivek 16986

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Posted
13 hours ago, workswithseed said:

Then why the big jump? If people were doing good till now then why now? Why give up at the end of the year, when they new what could happen?

Holidays and fatigue would have happened without Gavin's dumbfuckery right?  Do you really believe that people would abandon precaution because of the unknown circumstances of a local politician?**  Why would you choose that to the the basis of your hunch?  Are there other regions having a similar punctuated increases that did not have poor behavior by a local official?   

 

**We call it shitty but what if Gavin and his family self isolated for 2 weeks prior, is it such a risk?  What if they had a family member that was ill either physically of mentally and they were worried for this or her safety/survival but do not want to share such a personal issue with the world? 

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kevwun

kevwun 15897

Posted
Posted (edited)

You are arguing with possibly the dumbest person on this site.  There is zero point in discussing anything with him.  You will not penetrate his idiocy and are just going to aggravate the shit out of yourself.

Edited by kevwun
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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18285

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Hey, you May/June fellas.......

 

4Do9.gif

 

Jesus fucking Christ, on a board that has seen some stupid arguments, y'all are making a strong year-end push to grab the gold.

Negged for hypocrisy. That post is like Hacksaw Jim Duggan complaining that hitting a wrestler with a 2x4 is stupid.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23485

Posted
Posted (edited)

My doc sent an email on Christmas Eve. They are one of the few small practices in Travis county on the DSHS allocation reports, and I imagine are getting a bunch of calls about the vaccine. Anyway, they basically said don’t call us, but send an email to get on the wait list and our triage nurse will call you. I am on the waitlist. I can’t imagine what their inbox looked like on Monday. 

Edited by Anastasis
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

CDC says 6 cases likely for every confirmed case

This seems really unlikely to me. That would mean we're already at almost 50% immunity, which is almost a 0% chance of being the case. Where did you get that number from? I know there were some numbers like that early on, but I hadn't seen anything lately. If we take that 50% then assume that young kids don't get/spread it nearly as frequently as adults, we'd be pretty close to herd immunity, which we obviously are not.

Those 6:1 or 10:1 ratios were thrown out early and often by the DT "it's just the flu" crew, but with the data we have today they make absolutely no sense. If they were real, Covid would be an afterthought by now.

Edited by BradInATX
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46131

Posted
Posted
Just now, BradInATX said:

This seems really unlikely to me. That would mean we're already at almost 50% immunity, which is almost a 0% chance of being the case. Where did you get that number from?

I've seen a factor of 5 assumed in several models.  I don't know if CDC is parroting other estimates or vice versa.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've seen a factor of 5 assumed in several models.  I don't know if CDC is parroting other estimates or vice versa.

Those numbers always smelled like bullshit to me. We'd have countries like Italy and Spain that already had herd immunity after their big first waves if it was 5 to 1.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4627

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I am not worried about achieving herd immunity. If this vaccine is even close to 100% affective against symptomatic infection, as the studies indicate, herd immunity won’t matter. Getting the vulnerable and front line / essential workers immunized will ease the stress on the healthcare system. That will happen fairly quickly. I would imagine everyone who wants the vaccine will have it by late spring. The majority of those left will be fine even if they get infected. The fraction who get really sick or die I won’t have much sympathy for. 

This.  We won’t get enough people vaccinated to get to herd immunity and luckily we don’t need to.  The most significant impact of this virus is its impact on the elderly and compromised, in that it kills them and makes them overwhelm the healthcare system.  
 

20%-50% of the country have already had it.  I think we need 80% of people over 60 to have immunity before we start to see hospitalizations and deaths drop dramatically, which is really all we need to be able to go back to “normal”.  Even at this shameful pace of vaccine distribution we should reach that goal by Memorial Day.  This is in part supported by the fact that the people who are likely to refuse the vaccine are also the people who have not been careful to not get it, which means they are more likely to have immunity via prior infection.

Despite the unbelievable fuck ups in preventing the spread and administering the vaccine, I still think this will largely be over by Memorial Day.

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