CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[Surly Bevo 24,932]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Those numbers always smelled like bullshit to me. We'd have countries like Italy and Spain that already had herd immunity after their big first waves if it was 5 to 1.

Italy has 60 million people and something like 2.5M cases.  They wouldn't be anywhere near herd Immunity

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

BradInAtx seems to get into some incredibly stupid pedantic argument at least once a week around here lately. 

 

I've been calling out bad data and anti-science regarding Covid for 9 months. You're just noticing it because there's been a few times lately where your team has been the one throwing bad data out.

[workswithseed 2,110]

21 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Holidays and fatigue would have happened without Gavin's dumbfuckery right?  Do you really believe that people would abandon precaution because of the unknown circumstances of a local politician?**  Why would you choose that to the the basis of your hunch?  Are there other regions having a similar punctuated increases that did not have poor behavior by a local official?   

 

**We call it shitty but what if Gavin and his family self isolated for 2 weeks prior, is it such a risk?  What if they had a family member that was ill either physically of mentally and they were worried for this or her safety/survival but do not want to share such a personal issue with the world? 

Well then, why are we mad at Gavin then if he didn't really make people think that what they have been dealing with is bullshit? I'm saying he had a part of why the increases in cases. I already said fatigue, and holidays are another part to play with this all.

[workswithseed 2,110]

3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Surly seems to get into some incredibly stupid pedantic argument at least once a week around here lately. 

Fixed for accuracy.

[BradInATX 9,208]

2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Italy has 60 million people and something like 2.5M cases.  They wouldn't be anywhere near herd Immunity

Fair enough. The DT morons were throwing out 10x and even bigger numbers early on, which is what I was working from.

[Brisketexan 105,151]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've seen a factor of 5 assumed in several models.  I don't know if CDC is parroting other estimates or vice versa.

Yeah, I can understand the basis for that extrapolation, but it sure seems like the actual transmission activity we've seen in multiple countries that would follow the same pattern doesn't match that level of infection.  The number of infected is clearly a good bit more than the number of confirmed cases, but my guess (and that's all it is -- we'd need some really good data to make it anything but a guess/extrapolation) is that it's more like 2-3 cases for each confirmed case.  We are at 20 million confirmed cases, I wouldn't be surprised if it was 60-80 million or so.  Out of 330 million people, that puts us in the range of 20-25% of the population having been infected.  That would make sense, in light of the continued rapid transmission of the virus still taking place.

In a perfect world, we'd 1) have better/faster vaccine rollout, 2) administer quickly to the tier 1A and tier 1B people, and 3) in the meantime, get everyone else tested for antibodies, so that people without antibodies can be the next group to be vaccinated, getting us to herd immunity that much quicker.

But....America, 2020.  None of that shit will happen.

[jimmyjazz 45,960]

8 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Even at this shameful pace of vaccine distribution we should reach that goal by Memorial Day.  

That's May 31, 2021.  NOT JUNE!!!

[Brisketexan 105,151]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's May 31, 2021.  NOT JUNE!!!

GODDAMIT.  JUNE HAS HAD ENOUGH OF YOUR SHIT!

[jimmyjazz 45,960]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

GODDAMIT.  JUNE HAS HAD ENOUGH OF YOUR SHIT!

You could at least acknowledge my avatar.

[Brisketexan 105,151]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

You could at least acknowledge my avatar.

Yeah, I couldn't find an image where she looked pissed at the Beav, but then, I didn't look very hard.

[jimmyjazz 45,960]

I have a theory:  June was banging Eddie Haskell on the side.

[wildcat09 29,354]

13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I've been calling out bad data and anti-science regarding Covid for 9 months. You're just noticing it because there's been a few times lately where your team has been the one throwing bad data out.

I don't know what "team" you're referring to, but I was referring mostly to your recent nonsense about "tangible" not meaning tangible.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

48 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Back on topic:  is there no hope for us to hit that 3.5 million doses per day rate sometime soon?  Is this just a slow start or is the distribution system horribly fucked for good?

Federal system is run by Trump administration (idiots). Compounded by each state has a different plan. (Problem of not having a centralized government)

[Gatorubet 30,241]

I have a theory:  June was banging Eddie Haskell on the side.

“Mrs. Cleaver....could you quit asking me if I’ve seen the Beaver when we’re in public? I’m not sure I can keep a straight face anymore. “

[pyrohornIII 4,815]

So, aside from the mathematical debate, has anyone seen anything solid on the vaccine and sterility?   My niece says she won't take it because she wants kids and it's possible the vaccine will negate that possibility.   I said well not taking it could render the same outcome.   She shrugged.

Has there been any reliable information released on this or is it all red pill/anti-vax stuff?

 

[Anastasis 23,472]

Taking the vaccine makes your dick grow 2”.

[wildcat09 29,354]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Taking the vaccine makes your dick grow 2”.

In length or girth?

[InkaUtexas 25,951]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

In length or girth?

inward. 

[Huckleberry 32,862]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

This thread has gone full @Huckleberry.

It's not even close to that cool.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

I love this move. hahah

 

[StassneyHorn 6,577]

4 hours ago, workswithseed said:

Are you thick? You came in already not understanding the prior context. I was talking about workers, and you're a dumbass.

When you have five other posters telling you how big of a dumbass you are being, take a step back and ask yourself why that is. Literally nothing you are saying, or any of things you are tying me to, make any sense.

[DDD Dad 14,339]

2 hours ago, Born to Run said:

3 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Imagine thinking "South California" is full of Newsomkins with posters of Gavin on the wall above each dinner table. Fuck this mask I can't believe Gavin led me astray! Lmao

"South California" really says it all. This dude needs to get out more, read a book, travel.

 

[Sawbonz 27,565]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

This seems really unlikely to me. That would mean we're already at almost 50% immunity, which is almost a 0% chance of being the case. Where did you get that number from? I know there were some numbers like that early on, but I hadn't seen anything lately. If we take that 50% then assume that young kids don't get/spread it nearly as frequently as adults, we'd be pretty close to herd immunity, which we obviously are not.

Those 6:1 or 10:1 ratios were thrown out early and often by the DT "it's just the flu" crew, but with the data we have today they make absolutely no sense. If they were real, Covid would be an afterthought by now.

I got it from CDC website back in November 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

updated dec 23 1 in 7.2 cases reported 91M estimated total infections 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Sawbonz

[Anastasis 23,472]

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

In length or girth?

Whynotboth.gif

[Nivek 16,933]

2 hours ago, workswithseed said:

Well then, why are we mad at Gavin then if he didn't really make people think that what they have been dealing with is bullshit? I'm saying he had a part of why the increases in cases. I already said fatigue, and holidays are another part to play with this all.

Who is mad vs. disappointed? 

What degree of blame do you attribute to Gavin's actions and why?  How would you differentiate responsibility then to the Executive, locals (state and below) officials, fatigue, right-wing media, right-wing social media, holidays, and the hope of a vaccine associated dropping of guard?  

 

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

Who is mad vs. disappointed? 

What degree of blame do you attribute to Gavin's actions and why?  How would you differentiate responsibility then to the Executive, locals (state and below) officials, fatigue, right-wing media, right-wing social media, holidays, and the hope of a vaccine associated dropping of guard?  

 

I blame it all on this war and that lyin' sonofabitch Johnson!

[Continental Op 3,934]

Good grief some of you fuckfaces are making the DT COVID thread seem appealing. 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Not good.

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

16 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Not good.
 

Eh, it's been here for a long time.  We are just now knowing to look for it.

[safe sex 11,735]

[workswithseed 2,110]

2 hours ago, Nivek said:

Who is mad vs. disappointed? 

What degree of blame do you attribute to Gavin's actions and why?  How would you differentiate responsibility then to the Executive, locals (state and below) officials, fatigue, right-wing media, right-wing social media, holidays, and the hope of a vaccine associated dropping of guard?  

 

I'm guessing the people who are trying to recall him are mad, and disappointed.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/12/29/newsom-recall-effort-gets-500k-boost-from-orange-county-firm-9425012

Are you saying people finally thought the Republicans were right/ tired of not seeing thier families might be contributing to the increase? Sure. I'm not saying that it didn't. 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

24 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Not good.
 

Not good at all. It's in Elbert County - part of the Greater Denver Metropolitan Statistical Area.  Covid was first brought to Colorado by Aussie/Italian skiers in February.  Vaccines are rolling out (thankfully, my babies' momma received the vaccine last week as a frontline Covid caregiver). But we need to kick vaccine delivery into hyperdrive. 

 

[Js1 85,347]

35 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Not good.
 

Read he's like 20 with no travel history.  

Great. 

[Guest Lobo]

relax folks, it'll go away by April.  

[washparkhorn 9,939]

12 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

I'm guessing the people who are trying to recall him are mad, and disappointed.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/12/29/newsom-recall-effort-gets-500k-boost-from-orange-county-firm-9425012

Are you saying people finally thought the Republicans were right/ tired of not seeing thier families might be contributing to the increase? Sure. I'm not saying that it didn't. 

The recall effort on Newsom was ongoing long before Covid.

6,000,000 Californians voted for Trump. (11,000,000 voted for Biden). The loud trumpers get a lot of attention (supply-side-nuts), while they enjoy the benefits of the infrastructure California is blessed with due to continued funding in California.

Supply side economics is a scam most economists have abandoned. 

Worth a watch, but wait for it . . .  - @workswithseed

h/t to @shnsajax

[Js1 85,347]

29 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

I'm guessing the people who are trying to recall him are mad, and disappointed.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/12/29/newsom-recall-effort-gets-500k-boost-from-orange-county-firm-9425012

Are you saying people finally thought the Republicans were right/ tired of not seeing thier families might be contributing to the increase? Sure. I'm not saying that it didn't. 

Republicans love fucking recall petitions.  Because when you can't win, bitch and try to overturn an election. See: recalls against Newsom, Democrat state officials in Nevada, Colorado, etc. 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Read he's like 20 with no travel history.  

Great. 

That's concerning and points to a patient zero in Colorado not already identified.  

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Eh, it's been here for a long time.  We are just now knowing to look for it.

I’m sure he’s not Patient Zero or anything but I wouldn’t say this variant has been here “a long time”.

It wasn’t even discovered in the UK until December 13th and these genome scientists have been actively looking for variants and mutations so they are identified fairly quickly.

And it mirrors the initial outbreak here geographically - the ski areas in Colorado were one of the first places along with the PNW and NYC. I expect it’s already in those locations too.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

2 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I’m sure he’s not Patient Zero or anything but I wouldn’t say this variant has been here “a long time”.

It wasn’t even discovered in the UK until December 13th and these genome scientists have been actively looking for variants and mutations so they are identified fairly quickly.

And it mirrors the initial outbreak here geographically - the ski areas in Colorado were one of the first places along with the PNW and NYC. I expect it’s already in those locations too.

Maybe it's coming from inside the house!

[HornOnTheBayou 8,930]

Will the vaccines currently being used immunize against this new strain?

 

[Willfully Horn 8,017]

18 hours ago, workswithseed said:

It does suck. Welcome to fucked proper, the logical destination when so many folks eschew efforts to mitigate CV-19. 

Now, hospital staff must decide who has the best chance of survival, and will turn away patients. More unnecessary death.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Willfully Horn
Harpy digits

[Sawbonz 27,565]

3 minutes ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

Will the vaccines currently being used immunize against this new strain?

 

From what I have read the spike protein, to which the vaccines induce antibodies, is the same, so the vaccine should work. Any substantial changes to the spike protein should be lethal (to the virus) mutations so we should see relatively long term immunity with the vaccine. Also given the technology used to synthesize the vaccine, a new vaccine for a non lethal major structural change to the spike protein would be available shortly after the new protein is identified and sequenced

[workswithseed 2,110]

30 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The recall effort on Newsom was ongoing long before Covid.

6,000,000 Californians voted for Trump. (11,000,000 voted for Biden). The loud trumpers get a lot of attention (supply-side-nuts), while they enjoy the benefits of the infrastructure California is blessed with due to continued funding in California.

Supply side economics is a scam most economists have abandoned. 

Worth a watch, but wait for it . . .  - @workswithseed

h/t to @shnsajax

As I've heard was this one is a different recall effort, but either way this one seems to have more steam. 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

1 minute ago, workswithseed said:

As I've heard was this one is a different recall effort, but either way this one seems to have more steam. 

A good place to track the recall efforts against Newsom: https://ballotpedia.org/Gavin_Newsom_recall,_Governor_of_California_(2019-2021)

 

[Js1 85,347]

10 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

As I've heard was this one is a different recall effort, but either way this one seems to have more steam. 

“More steam”

1.5 million signatures. The state of California has a voting age population of 30 million and 22 million registered voters.   Or 5-7% of the population.

The tiny percentage of nut jobs always have the loudest voices. Hey maybe after this one fails, the 6th one will work out! 

[Nivek 16,933]

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

I'm guessing the people who are trying to recall him are mad, and disappointed.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/12/29/newsom-recall-effort-gets-500k-boost-from-orange-county-firm-9425012

Are you saying people finally thought the Republicans were right/ tired of not seeing thier families might be contributing to the increase? Sure. I'm not saying that it didn't. 

The article you linked was political posturing by some wealthy trumpkins who want to remove an opposition governor.   It has fuck all to do with the discussion.  Your sophomoric attempt to be cute in your second to last sentence is classic GOP distraction and attempt to reframe the discussion.    You were the one making the claims about responsibility of the spikes and you have provided nothing but a biased hunch and an irrelevant article.    

[bluto 4,929]

With the heat being turned up on vax rollout it’s only a matter of days before the stats/dashboards are taken offline in the name of public safety or some shit

[Francisco 2.0 32,395]

Probably belongs on the DT thread more than here, but meh.  This is one of the reasons why we can't have nice things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And the developer of this app has some interesting tweets this year:

 

Spoiler

 

Then he sensed one opportunity:

 

 

Then he sensed another:

 

 

 

 

 

[jimmyjazz 45,960]

An acquaintance mentioned he got bumped up the line for vaccine because he is "fat and asthmatic".  I'm curious about the "fat and asthmatic" demo.  I'm asthmatic, and I could be in better shape, but at 5'6" 150# I'm just a midget, not exactly fat.  "Short for my body weight."  Doc pointed at my lung x-ray and mentioned "you should drink less beer".

What pool am I in, vaccine-wise?

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

An acquaintance mentioned he got bumped up the line for vaccine because he is "fat and asthmatic".  I'm curious about the "fat and asthmatic" demo.  I'm asthmatic, and I could be in better shape, but at 5'6" 150# I'm just a midget, not exactly fat.  "Short for my body weight."  Doc pointed at my lung x-ray and mentioned "you should drink less beer".

What pool am I in, vaccine-wise?

I don't know, but be sure and tip the cabana boy.

 

 

Seriously, maybe contact your doctor and see if he/she has any info?