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CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk


Mrs Whiggins

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4 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

 

The vaccine candidate was 85 percent effective in preventing severe disease across all regions studied, [i] 28 days after vaccination in all adults 18 years and older. Efficacy against severe disease increased over time with no cases in vaccinated participants reported after day 49.

The Janssen COVID-19 vaccine candidate demonstrated complete protection against COVID-related hospitalization and death, 28 days post-vaccination. There was a clear effect of the vaccine on COVID-19 cases requiring medical intervention (hospitalization, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO)), with no reported cases among participants who had received the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine, 28 days post-vaccination.

 

That sounds good.  Is that good?  

 

And they have a prime-boost regimen also under study. 

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These fucking headlines indicating these vaccines don’t work are fucking evil.  J&J vaccine trial had zero deaths.  And the data showed immunity increased as time passed.  My guess is a 2 dose shot of the J&J vaccine would be as effective as the mRNA vaccines, but even if not it is still highly effective for what it needs to do to stop the pandemic.  Fuck.

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In most places in the United States, teachers don’t yet qualify for COVID-19 vaccines. But one county in rural Georgia decided several weeks ago that its educators deserved early protection from the coronavirus—and now will face stiff consequences as a result. 

 

The vaccine deal at the Delco Center in Austin a few weeks ago was initially for AISD teachers and staff.  They had 12,000 shots, but the directive to teachers were they had to be there between 9 and 3:00 - right in the middle of the school day.  So it opened to the public since teachers couldn't get there.

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53 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Do the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines also report increased immunity post 21/28 days?

IIRC, their primary analysis was 7d after 2nd dose.  I don't recall anything past that, but doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

JNJ will submit their EUA next week. 

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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

These fucking headlines indicating these vaccines don’t work are fucking evil.  J&J vaccine trial had zero deaths.  And the data showed immunity increased as time passed.  My guess is a 2 dose shot of the J&J vaccine would be as effective as the mRNA vaccines, but even if not it is still highly effective for what it needs to do to stop the pandemic.  Fuck.

This.  I hope that you are right about the 2nd shot, vector vaccine has some unique issues to consider there....namely, vector immunity.

But if all we get out of it is what the press release data suggest, it is more than sufficient to dropping the hammer on deaths and hospitalizations (caveat being that they actually had enough events to arrive at stable estimates). In fact, the one dose vaccine efficacy data here are basically bracketed by the VE that was seen with the PFE and MRNA single shot analyses. Which when overlaid with the discussion a few pages back about mortality and hospitalization endpoints and the pros/cons of locking the freezers, makes you 🤔

 

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3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

You are posting misinformation.  So far, it looks like the vaccine works against the new variants.  They may be less effective, but they still appear to work well enough that they would end the pandemic if enough people were vaccinated.

Nope - I don't see how you can say, 

Quote

They may be less effective, but they still appear to work well enough that they would end the pandemic if enough people were vaccinated.

This is IMPOSSIBLE to know without considering variants and having an unknown efficacy against ALL variants.  This is not to say your assertion is patently false, just that you would need a lot more data to make that assertion true, rather than more of a guess.  I hope you are right, but your assertion is far from fact at this point.  Unfortunately.

====================================

The good news is the new vaccine from J&J is easy to transport, store and administer. While it has a little less efficacy than either the moderna or pfizer, you can ramp up the manufacturing of this vaccine potentially much more rapidly. One other thing that I think needs to be pointed out about ALL these vaccines, is your fullest immunity is weeks after you last dose.  In the case of J&J at 49 days they believe their vaccine can prevent nearly ALL severe illness and hospitalization.  IF we can get this thing to a point of just folks getting sick like the flu (yes I know the flu kills) that would be a huge win.  

While Moderna and Pfizer are better vaccines, J&J offers more help to the more rural and underserved areas of our country, and world.  J&J's version also has a huge production capability advantage.  I think this might be where we can use the Defense Production Act to even further increase this capability to try and help out in third world countries?  Remember we can't just "win" in the USA we have to beat this thing back everywhere.  The J and J vaccine is the best hope we currently have for this. SO that is good fucking news!!!!!

I still am doubtful we will be able to stamp the virus out at this point.  At the same time, if may be that we never control the virus, but we diminish the severity enough to give relief to our hospitals, no longer fill 100,000 body bags a month.  That is truly the beginning of turning the corner.  I still think we will be chasing, but if we can get kids back to school, people back to work, and largely protect the oldest and most vulnerable.  THAT is a very real possibility.  It's not winning the war, but it is turning the tide.

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1 hour ago, horn4life said:

Nope - I don't see how you can say, 

This is IMPOSSIBLE to know without considering variants and having an unknown efficacy against ALL variants.  This is not to say your assertion is patently false, just that you would need a lot more data to make that assertion true, rather than more of a guess.  I hope you are right, but your assertion is far from fact at this point.  Unfortunately.

I still am doubtful we will be able to stamp the virus out at this point.  At the same time, if may be that we never control the virus, but we diminish the severity enough to give relief to our hospitals, no longer fill 100,000 body bags a month.  That is truly the beginning of turning the corner.  I still think we will be chasing, but if we can get kids back to school, people back to work, and largely protect the oldest and most vulnerable.  THAT is a very real possibility.  It's not winning the war, but it is turning the tide.

If it's IMPOSSIBLE (ALL CAPS!!!!) to know, why did you make a comment indicating the vaccine is not effective against the new variants?  Your comment included some pretty fucking strong language ("We are fucked.",  "What we know so far is that the the newest South African version is resistant to the current vaccine or vaccines in the test tube environment.", etc.) that was patently false.

My response was accurate; we don't know for 100% certainty that the vaccine works against the new variants, but the (limited) data we do have suggests it does work.  Comments like yours are false and dangerous because they undermine people's confidence in the vaccines, which results in lower vaccination rates and a prolonged pandemic.

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The UMinn guy on CNN this morning seemed to offer a pretty rosy picture for "max" immunity on the J&J vaccine just 1-2 weeks after inoculation.    He also corroborated the point of a previous doc who said if you're offered the J&J vaccine, take it . . . you can get Pfizer or Moderna later if they become available to you.

I don't see how this isn't good news.  85% efficacy against severe disease isn't the near-100% number we've seen touted by the first two vaccines, but it's pretty damn good.

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8 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

My response was accurate; we don't know for 100% certainty that the vaccine works against the new variants, but the (limited) data we do have suggests it does work. 

And especially if you define "works" as prevents people from ending up in the hospital and/or dying. Those clinical data look promising based on the JNJ release, but we should wait until the actual data in the submission are released to draw out any real conclusions. 

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1 minute ago, DDD Dad said:

Please?

Vector immunity?  The vector vaccine is genetic material packaged in a benign virus for delivery.  Your body will try to mount an immune response against the vector virus, in this case an adenovirus.  If your body develops a substantial immune response to the vector after the first dose, the second dose may not be as effective at delivering it's genetic payload to stimulate spike production.  We'll need to see what the clinical data actually show.  

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Happy to report my 79yo mom got her first Moderna shot yesterday (she came down with Covid in early December after catching it from my dad, who as y'all know did not survive). She sounded relieved and elated when I talked to her last night and urged me to get the vaccine ASAP, which I obviously plan to do.

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This is IMPOSSIBLE to know without considering variants and having an unknown efficacy against ALL variants.  This is not to say your assertion is patently false, just that you would need a lot more data to make that assertion true, rather than more of a guess.  I hope you are right, but your assertion is far from fact at this point.  Unfortunately.
====================================
The good news is the new vaccine from J&J is easy to transport, store and administer. While it has a little less efficacy than either the moderna or pfizer, you can ramp up the manufacturing of this vaccine potentially much more rapidly. One other thing that I think needs to be pointed out about ALL these vaccines, is your fullest immunity is weeks after you last dose.  In the case of J&J at 49 days they believe their vaccine can prevent nearly ALL severe illness and hospitalization.  IF we can get this thing to a point of just folks getting sick like the flu (yes I know the flu kills) that would be a huge win.  
While Moderna and Pfizer are better vaccines, J&J offers more help to the more rural and underserved areas of our country, and world.  J&J's version also has a huge production capability advantage.  I think this might be where we can use the Defense Production Act to even further increase this capability to try and help out in third world countries?  Remember we can't just "win" in the USA we have to beat this thing back everywhere.  The J and J vaccine is the best hope we currently have for this. SO that is good fucking news!!!!!
I still am doubtful we will be able to stamp the virus out at this point.  At the same time, if may be that we never control the virus, but we diminish the severity enough to give relief to our hospitals, no longer fill 100,000 body bags a month.  That is truly the beginning of turning the corner.  I still think we will be chasing, but if we can get kids back to school, people back to work, and largely protect the oldest and most vulnerable.  THAT is a very real possibility.  It's not winning the war, but it is turning the tide.


We're not going to stamp it out, maybe not ever, but in 6-8 months it's just going to be a thing that flares up and kills some antivaxxers every so often. That's winning the war.
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On 1/28/2021 at 6:37 PM, BradInATX said:

Per Henry's tweet above we're right at 10% of the adult population vaccinated, with pretty rapid acceleration and the one shot J&J on the horizon.

I'm telling yall, Memorial Day we're all going to party our fuckin asses off.

Those of us who are still alive will, yes.  Several thousand of us will not, alas.

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22 hours ago, horn4life said:

I still am doubtful we will be able to stamp the virus out at this point.  At the same time, if may be that we never control the virus, but we diminish the severity enough to give relief to our hospitals, no longer fill 100,000 body bags a month.  That is truly the beginning of turning the corner.  I still think we will be chasing, but if we can get kids back to school, people back to work, and largely protect the oldest and most vulnerable.  THAT is a very real possibility.  It's not winning the war, but it is turning the tide.

It very much is winning the war though. The window of being able to eradicate this has long since closed. Maybe it can be done overer decades, but not any time soon. If that's truly your definition of winning then you will likely die (of something else) waiting for that. The focus now is making it manageable so people can safely see their friends and family, do their jobs, and go about normal life. These vaccines provide a clear path to that.

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2 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

“Nobody knew that health care could be so complicated.” - Donald Trump, 2/27/17

It's not really that surprising that the party that has been promising they "are just about to unveil their healthcare plan" for like 3 decades, couldn't even simply count the doses that went where...

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3 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

Uh, say, you don't happen to have 20 million extra doses do you? Oh, damn. Bye

What are the odds that we soon see Don Jr. barking a new infomercial on Fox for Trump-cine? Just $500 a pop. 

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On 1/29/2021 at 10:05 AM, Anastasis said:

But if all we get out of it is what the press release data suggest, it is more than sufficient to dropping the hammer on deaths and hospitalizations (caveat being that they actually had enough events to arrive at stable estimates). In fact, the one dose vaccine efficacy data here are basically bracketed by the VE that was seen with the PFE and MRNA single shot analyses. Which when overlaid with the discussion a few pages back about mortality and hospitalization endpoints and the pros/cons of locking the freezers, makes you 🤔

MTP put the brackets in a graphic, and the director of CIDRP at University of Minnesota is now advocating calling an audible on the second shots and getting as many first shots in arms ASAP given the projections related to variants over the coming weeks. Video at link. 

 

Full Osterholm: 'We need to get as many one-doses … as we possibly can"

In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Michael Osterholm, Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a member of the Biden Transition Covid-19 Advisory Board, talks about vaccine distribution challenges and the threat of virus variants.

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/full-osterholm-we-need-to-get-as-many-one-doses-as-we-possibly-can-100301893713?

 

Both sides!

Hope those shots sitting in the freezer are making you feel real warm on the inside Fondren. I suppose white knighting an imaginary insult on NY brings it's own sort of comfort. More on what to expect over the next few weeks from the variants...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Anyone else watch Bill Maher this week?  What the fuck is he thinking?

Quote

Well, on tonight’s edition of his HBO show, Maher welcomed a pair of podcast hosts, the husband-and-wife duo of Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying, to discuss the origins of COVID-19. Weinstein and Heying, for the uninitiated, are members of the so-called “intellectual dark web” who in 2017 both resigned from their posts as biology professors at Evergreen State College in protest of a minority-appreciation day, and have since whined about campus speech on a number of libertarian-leaning podcasts. 

Maher proceeded to forward the conspiracy theory that COVID-19 was man-made and somehow escaped from a lab in Wuhan.

“We’ve heard a lot recently about the fact that maybe the virus did start in a lab,” offered Maher. “Let’s talk about that—the fact that there is this lab, I think it’s the only one in the world quite like it, in Wuhan, where it started. It would almost be a conspiracy theory to think it didn’t start in a lab, right? And that theory was demonized at first—Oh, come on, that’s conspiracy thinking, that started in a lab. But it’s certainly 50-50, would you say that?”

“Oh, it’s far more likely than that,” replied Weinstein, adding that “it looked to be about 90 percent” probability that it originated in a lab. “We are so politicized and polarized and partisan now as a country that if the wrong guy proposed this to begin with—and for the half the country, it was the wrong guy—then the rest of the country says ‘no way, no how, we’re gonna call that a conspiracy theory,” added Heying.

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bill-maher-pushes-bonkers-steve-bannon-wuhan-lab-covid-conspiracy

I watched the first 5 minutes of the interview and was like ...

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47yhi767vldhs8jjh1zw 

Bill is going off the deep end it would seem.

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4 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Anyone else watch Bill Maher this week?  What the fuck is he thinking?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bill-maher-pushes-bonkers-steve-bannon-wuhan-lab-covid-conspiracy

I watched the first 5 minutes of the interview and was like ...

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47yhi767vldhs8jjh1zw 

Bill is going off the deep end it would seem.

He's watching Joe Rogan and his success.  Idiocy is where the money is.

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