CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[jimmyjazz 46130]

[jimmyjazz 46130]

. . . and the actual case count is probably north of 140M.

[Neonmoon 38130]

That is so fucking sad. 

For reference, total US combat deaths. All wars. Since inception. 666,441

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war#Overview

[The Dog 44139]

21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

. . . and the actual case count is probably north of 140M.

Got a source for this? 

Reason I ask is that the most I've seen is double the actual count based on epidemiological math (so 67 million). 

[jimmyjazz 46130]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Got a source for this? 

Reason I ask is that the most I've seen is double the actual count based on epidemiological math (so 67 million). 

Last I checked, CDC estimated a 4.6X multiplier on known case count.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33899]

17 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Last I checked, CDC estimated a 4.6X multiplier on known case count.

that would equate to roughly half. does anyone really think half of America got covid? I don't

[jimmyjazz 46130]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

that would equate to roughly half. does anyone really think half of America got covid? I don't

Well, that's not for me to say.  I looked into it again and it appears as of mid-April, that multiplier now stands at 1 in 4.3 cases having been reported, which would imply 145M cases total.

 

 

CDC estimate of disease burden

[The Dog 44139]

33 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, that's not for me to say.  I looked into it again and it appears as of mid-April, that multiplier now stands at 1 in 4.3 cases having been reported, which would imply 145M cases total.

 

 

CDC estimate of disease burden

The number on there is 114.6 million cases estimated, which is what I've seen elsewhere. About 1/3rd of the county has had it. With 59% of the country having had at least one shot that's a big chunk of resistance to the disease at this point and explains why the case numbers are dropping. 

[jimmyjazz 46130]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The number on there is 114.6 million cases estimated, which is what I've seen elsewhere. About 1/3rd of the county has had it. With 59% of the country having had at least one shot that's a big chunk of resistance to the disease at this point and explains why the case numbers are dropping. 

Yeah, but that's looks to be through March.  I'm just using their multiplier (4.3) and the current Worldometers case count (33.7M).  

I didn't exactly sharpen my pencil on this.  It's a big number, whether it's 115M, 130M, or 145M.  One question is how strong and long-lasting is the range of immune responses to those infections.

[Brisketexan 105334]

18 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The number on there is 114.6 million cases estimated, which is what I've seen elsewhere. About 1/3rd of the county has had it. With 59% of the country having had at least one shot that's a big chunk of resistance to the disease at this point and explains why the case numbers are dropping. 

And that's the interesting math to me.  If the overlap is perfect (with no variance between the ratio of infected to the population at large vs the ratio of infected to the vaccinated population, we have 33% of the population naturally immune via past infection.  Then, we have around 60% of us having had one shot.  If 1/3 of people getting the shot were already immune, we won't double count them -- so, 40% of the population (2/3 of 60%) is newly immune because of vaccination.  That would mean that around 73% of the population is immune.  And yeah, that seems like the kind of number where we'd expect to see infection numbers really start dropping.

I haven't really seen much discussion of this -- is nobody trying to really figure out what percentage of the population is likely immune or not?

[Bozo_Casanova 26553]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And that's the interesting math to me.  If the overlap is perfect (with no variance between the ratio of infected to the population at large vs the ratio of infected to the vaccinated population, we have 33% of the population naturally immune via past infection.  Then, we have around 60% of us having had one shot.  If 1/3 of people getting the shot were already immune, we won't double count them -- so, 40% of the population (2/3 of 60%) is newly immune because of vaccination.  That would mean that around 73% of the population is immune.  And yeah, that seems like the kind of number where we'd expect to see infection numbers really start dropping.

I haven't really seen much discussion of this -- is nobody trying to really figure out what percentage of the population is likely immune or not?

 that sounds like a lot of work

[Pescado_Rojo 19428]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And that's the interesting math to me.  If the overlap is perfect (with no variance between the ratio of infected to the population at large vs the ratio of infected to the vaccinated population, we have 33% of the population naturally immune via past infection.  Then, we have around 60% of us having had one shot.  If 1/3 of people getting the shot were already immune, we won't double count them -- so, 40% of the population (2/3 of 60%) is newly immune because of vaccination.  That would mean that around 73% of the population is immune.  And yeah, that seems like the kind of number where we'd expect to see infection numbers really start dropping.

I haven't really seen much discussion of this -- is nobody trying to really figure out what percentage of the population is likely immune or not?

[jimmyjazz 46130]

I started in on that exercise about a month ago, but the required assumptions are pretty broad.  How many of those "unreported" cases were unknown to the person infected?  It might be reasonable to assume a decent percentage of people who know they have had covid won't get vaccinated, at least not initially, but if most of those unreported cases involve people who are unaware they already had the virus, we should expect a fairly consistent % of them to get vaccinated . . . a double dip, if you will.

Ultimately, I couldn't get to a point where I felt like the error bars were tight enough to draw any conclusions.  About as good as I could do was "well, maybe 40% of the American public has natural immunity, at least to some degree, and a bunch more have vaccine immunity, but . . . I don't know how they add up."  So I drank a scotch.

[Brisketexan 105334]

10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I started in on that exercise about a month ago, but the required assumptions are pretty broad.  How many of those "unreported" cases were unknown to the person infected?  It might be reasonable to assume a decent percentage of people who know they have had covid won't get vaccinated, at least not initially, but if most of those unreported cases involve people who are unaware they already had the virus, we should expect a fairly consistent % of them to get vaccinated . . . a double dip, if you will.

Ultimately, I couldn't get to a point where I felt like the error bars were tight enough to draw any conclusions.  About as good as I could do was "well, maybe 40% of the American public has natural immunity, at least to some degree, and a bunch more have vaccine immunity, but . . . I don't know how they add up."  So I drank a scotch.

Your path makes a lot of sense.  At least the "I just ended up drinking scotch" part.

Yeah, figuring out the exact percentage overlaps, based on personal behavior/knowledge (a person who knew they had COVID is likely less inclined to get vaccinated; many of the people who engaged in higher risk behaviors likely to lead to infection are also likely to not be on board with getting vaccinated).  I SUSPECT that the percentage of "already immune" people who also got the shot is lower than their percentage of the population at large, which means that our total percentage of immune people is even higher.  But nailing down specific would take some real social analysis and would be hard to pin down.

So.  Scotch.

[Beau Vine 54428]

I know at least a couple of people who had been infected who have been vaccinated. 

I mean, this has been going on for over a year --  If you got the flu last year, wouldn't you be *MORE* likely to get a flu shot this year?

[Js1 85573]

CDC says I don’t have to wear a mask so now I will to own the libs!

 

[Hmbre97 6331]

Don't threaten me with a good time.


And a big bravo to whoever the magnificent bastard is that started the conspiracy theory that vaccinated folk shed proteins that mutate your DNA so now all the antivax should start wearing masks to protect themselves from the vaccinated. That is just *chefs kiss*

[Biff Tannen 45736]

Just wanted to say that the DT thread is full of people who apparently think masks are the greatest assault on freedom in our lifetimes. Masks. A little piece of fabric that goes over your mouth and nose. They just cannot deal with it and it’s fascinating. 

[Bookman 4642]

16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Just wanted to say that the DT thread is full of people who apparently think masks are the greatest assault on freedom in our lifetimes. Masks. A little piece of fabric that goes over your mouth and nose. They just cannot deal with it and it’s fascinating. 

Yeah I don't get it. The cost of wearing mask is tiny. The potential benefits are huge.

[Neonmoon 38130]

As I get older, I realize I spend way too much time arguing with ignorant and inconsiderate people on the internet. It’s been fun over the years but one of these days, I’m just going to delete my account and do something productive. If I could only figure out something productive to do. 

[Anastasis 23485]

13 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

And a big bravo to whoever the magnificent bastard is that started the conspiracy theory that vaccinated folk shed proteins that mutate your DNA so now all the antivax should start wearing masks to protect themselves from the vaccinated. That is just *chefs kiss*

Top tier level 4chan trolling. 

[Born to Run 6569]

Just wanted to say that the DT thread is full of people who apparently think masks are the greatest assault on freedom in our lifetimes. Masks. A little piece of fabric that goes over your mouth and nose. They just cannot deal with it and it’s fascinating. 

They sound fat

[TheStoicPaisano 9939]

Fringe bennies from a full kit wanker.

 

 

[bolverk 29717]

Austin, Travis County Move Down To Stage 2 Risk Level Of Coronavirus Restrictions

The chief medical director for the city of Austin said Tuesday the area is now at Stage 2 of Austin Public Health's risk-based guidelines. The change is effective immediately.

Dr. Mark Escott said the decision was made based on the "significant decreases in cases that we're seeing."

"We feel confident we are in a place where the Stage 2 restrictions are appropriate and that's thanks to the great work our community has done to continue masking, continue distancing, continue getting vaccinated. These investments are paying off," Escott said.

The decision was also made after health officials considered the impact of hospital admissions from people outside Travis County on the area's coronavirus figures.

Hospital admissions from non-Travis County residents were being weighed into the rolling average that health officials use to determine the area's risk level. Using a "filtered" moving average – that is, only counting admissions from Travis County residents – Escott said the area had been below Stage 2 admissions thresholds for 10 of the last 14 days.

Under Stage 2 guidelines, Austin Public Health says fully vaccinated people do not need wear a face covering for indoor and outdoor private gatherings.

It is still recommended that everyone wear masks when traveling or dining indoors, unless a business owner allows fully vaccinated individuals to go without a face covering.

Masks are still required at hospitals, long-term care facilities and other health care facilities.

[High Plains Drifter 11052]

On 5/14/2021 at 12:00 PM, Anastasis said:

Going with this.  Also mix in fecal-oral transmission potential as there is lot of ass-eating taking place in that clubhouse. 

 

goddammit, why didn't somebody tell me that fecal-oral transmission potential was a thing months ago?

 

[Beau Vine 54428]

17 hours ago, Js1 said:

CDC says I don’t have to wear a mask so now I will to own the libs!

 

I think this is the first one of her tweets I've ever seen where none of the replies have brought up the time that she shit her pants at a frat party.

[Anastasis 23485]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Hospital admissions from non-Travis County residents were being weighed into the rolling average that health officials use to determine the area's risk level. Using a "filtered" moving average – that is, only counting admissions from Travis County residents – Escott said the area had been below Stage 2 admissions thresholds for 10 of the last 14 days.

That's an interesting piece of info, and might explain the disconnect that has been discussed in the texas data thread in DT. Would like to see these numbers reported. 

[Biff Tannen 45736]

CNN just had a segment on evangelicals that aren’t going to get the vaccine. The evangelical guest basically said they aren’t wasting time reaching out to the farthest right in their congregations because those people are batshit crazy. 

[Captainant 27767]

7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

CNN just had a segment on evangelicals that aren’t going to get the vaccine. The evangelical guest basically said they aren’t wasting time reaching out to the farthest right in their congregations because those people are batshit crazy. 

they just want to meet jesus, whats the big deal?

[Bama Chick 28596]

Speaking of batshit crazy.....

[Biff Tannen 45736]

16 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Speaking of batshit crazy.....
 

Good I hope they all get it.

[washparkhorn 9939]

8 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

. . .People who apparently think masks are the greatest assault on freedom in our lifetimes. Masks. A little piece of fabric that goes over your mouth and nose. They just cannot deal with it and it’s fascinating. 

I would love to see if there is any correlation between individual mask resistance and those who had their mouths covered by a parent as punishment for talking too much.

Edited May 18, 2021 by washparkhorn

[Js1 85573]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

Speaking of batshit crazy.....
 

Kind of like the batshit crazy guy running for NV Gov who tested positive for COVID on the day he launched his campaign. 

[babysdaddy 2728]

which thread are we supposed to post in?

[Biff Tannen 45736]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

which thread are we supposed to post in?

Well, when you have information pertinent to the title of the thread, ideally that one.

[Aqua Buddha 14609]

(CNN)Hours after launching his campaign for governor, a Nevada Republican who had not yet received the coronavirus vaccine said he had just tested positive for the virus. 

John Lee, the mayor of North Las Vegas, launched his campaign to unseat Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak on Monday. His entrance into the 2022 race came weeks after he had switched parties, accusing Democrats of drifting toward socialism and embracing "cancel culture." 

Lee, a 65-year-old cancer survivor and former state lawmaker who was elected mayor in 2013 and reelected in 2017, announced his positive test in a Facebook post on Monday night -- without explaining why he had not been vaccinated. 

"I was informed late Monday afternoon that someone I had come in contact with had tested positive for COVID-19. I immediately went to get tested, and tested positive, while following all CDC guidelines. I am feeling well, with no symptoms, and will be quarantining according to CDC guidelines and consultation with my doctor. I beat cancer and I'll beat Covid-19. I had not yet gotten the vaccine, and I'd like this to serve as a reminder to all to continue to take proper precautions, as well as ask for prayers for all who have been affected by this virus."

 

Lee's campaign would not address why he had not been vaccinated. 

Asked about his reasoning, a campaign spokesperson pointed to the statement Lee posted on Facebook -- which does not address why he had not received the coronavirus vaccine. Asked again why he had not been vaccinated, the spokesperson said, "He had not gotten the vaccine yet and will be consulting with his doctors."

[jimmyjazz 46130]

Cancer survivor, Republican, anti-vaxxer.  Yup, it all adds up.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Ugh. Horrible.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Ugh. Tapatalk is Horrible.

[Bookman 4642]

12 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

As I get older, I realize I spend way too much time arguing with ignorant and inconsiderate people on the internet. It’s been fun over the years but one of these days, I’m just going to delete my account and do something productive. If I could only figure out something productive to do. 

 

[Anastasis 23485]

4 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

I would love to see if there is any correlation between individual mask resistance and those who had their mouths covered by a parent as punishment for talking too much.

There is a whole lot of psychopathology we can break down on #bothsides, imo.  The people who don't want to climb out of the hole of their social isolation, the people afraid to put to piece of cloth over their face, etc.  We're not even scratching the surface here...

[elfenix 34332]

There is a whole lot of psychopathology we can break down on #bothsides, imo.  The people who don't want to climb out of the hole of their social isolation, the people afraid to put to piece of cloth over their face, etc.  We're not even scratching the surface here...

People overestimate their own odds of dying horrifically from unlikely causes, film at 11:00.

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Today at the gym they had a sign up indicating if you've been vaccinated you're OK to take off your mask.  So, yay.  Seemed a mix crowd, with some off, some on.  Whatever.  The ones that bemused me though were the chin diaper wearers.  I do not get that at all.  I mean, if you don't believe in it, fine take 'em off and deal with it.  If you do believe in it, well, what are you doing?

Edit:  in case anyone's curious, I took mine off immediately, since I've been fully vaccinated for 5 weeks now.  Felt good, man.

Edited May 19, 2021 by MC Fresh Breath

[Anastasis 23485]

4 hours ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

The ones that bemused me though were the chin diaper wearers. 

These people are the absolute worst.  Either off or on, stop wearing that shit like the facial hair shield you have to wear at your job running the fry basket at Burger King.  

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Yeah, reading my post I should have just said 'on or off.'  Like I said, now that the choice is "you don't have to wear it," I really don't get it.

On the good news front for me, my county is included in this list:

Quote

 

PORTLAND, Ore — Five Oregon counties will be able to drop down to 'lower risk' COVID-19 restrictions come Friday, after the governor said they met her vaccination benchmark and submitted their required equity plans.

Governor Kate Brown announced on Tuesday that Benton, Deschutes, Hood River, Lincoln and Washington counties are eligible to drop most of their restrictions starting on May 21.

I’d like to thank everyone in these counties, particularly their outstanding public health officials, health care workers, and volunteers who have led the way in making sure their communities are protected against COVID-19," the governor said.

All five counties have vaccinated (with at least one shot) at least 65% of their population over the age of 16, a benchmark that the governor put forth last week as one of the conditions for reopening. Another condition for set forth by the governor includes submitting a plan for how the county plans to address equity gaps in vaccination efforts.

 

https://katu.com/news/local/oregon-governor-5-counties-have-vaccinated-65-of-population-will-move-to-lower-risk

[Storm the Field 5302]

CDC's 7-day average of reported cases is down below 30K for first time since late June 2020, and has dropped 20K just this month.

[NWBuck 8586]

SIAP- I thought this was interesting:

Statewide Reopening During Mass Vaccination: Evidence on Mobility, Public Health and Economic Activity from Texas (abstract below, emphasis mine)

Quote

During the first four months of 2021, the United States distributed approximately 250 million doses of COVID-19 vaccinations, which resulted in the complete vaccination of nearly 45 percent of the adult population.

In the midst of this mass vaccination effort, Texas became the first state to abolish its statewide mask mandate and fully lift capacity constraints for all businesses. Governor Greg Abbott’s order was met with (i) concern by public health officials that an early reopening would lead to a resurgence of COVID-19, and (ii) assertions by Texas politicians that a reopening would generate short-run employment growth.

This study provides the first empirical evidence on these claims.

First, using daily anonymized smartphone data on social mobility from SafeGraph, Inc. — and synthetic control and difference-in-differences approaches — we find no evidence that the Texas reopening led to substantial changes in social mobility, including foot traffic at a wide set of business establishments in Texas.

Second, using daily data on new COVID-19 cases from the New York Times, we find no evidence that the Texas reopening affected the rate of new COVID-19 cases during the five weeks following the reopening. Our null results persist across more urbanized and less urbanized counties, as well as across counties that supported Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.

Finally, we find no evidence that the Texas reopening order impacted short-run employment. Together, our null findings underscore the limits of late-pandemic era COVID-19 reopening policies to alter private behavior.

 

[Hmbre97 6331]

I think the most telling is no increase in foot traffic anywhere which means the DGAF crowd was already out and the rest of the sane people kept following their normal routine. Had a feeling that's how it would shake out until more people got vaccinated.

Removing the mandate was more about throwing his base a bone and drawing attention away from their epic fuckups with the power grid.

[gmr548 16615]

I think the most telling is no increase in foot traffic anywhere which means the DGAF crowd was already out and the rest of the sane people kept following their normal routine. Had a feeling that's how it would shake out until more people got vaccinated.

Removing the mandate was more about throwing his base a bone and drawing attention away from their epic fuckups with the power grid.

Yep. I and plenty of others said as much when it happened. No one who thought mask wearing was the right move was going to stop because Greg Abbott said they didn’t have to, and plenty of people had long since stopped. It was a way to refocus on the culture war, which took the heat off. No more, no less.

[elfenix 34332]

1 hour ago, NWBuck said:

SIAP- I thought this was interesting:

Statewide Reopening During Mass Vaccination: Evidence on Mobility, Public Health and Economic Activity from Texas (abstract below, emphasis mine)

so basically, regardless of what the governor said, people kept doing what they were doing.