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Mrs Whiggins

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There was a piece on CBS News this morning about demonstrations across Europe and Australia against vaccine requirements. They got violent in Paris after Macron announced it would be mandatory to show proof of vaccination in order to attend theaters, concerts, museums, the Eiffel Tower, etc. If you don’t have proof of vaccination they offer rapid on-site testing. They also reported that more people were getting vaccinated and they interviewed a guy who said he was initially against it but finally figured he may as well get vaccinated.

I think that’s the way to go. The children will throw tantrums but ultimately they’ll get vaccinated, the vast majority won’t suffer any negative side effects, and they’ll get over it. I was rebellious when the federal government threatened to withhold funding for States unless they made it mandatory to wear seat belts but I got over it. I was rebellious when States banned cigarette smoking indoors but I got over it. Now those things actually make pretty good sense to me. I’m pretty sure making people show proof of vaccination before they can participate in their favorite public activities would work the same way. They’ll get over it. 

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1 hour ago, MC Fresh Breath said:
Spoiler

July 26, 2021, 6:45 a.m. ET
Breakthrough infections — in which vaccinated people nonetheless get the Covid-19 virus — are one of those vexing topics that can be difficult to put in perspective.

On the one hand, breakthrough infections are obviously occurring. They’ve happened to the New York Yankees and to White House officials, as well at summer gatherings in Massachusetts, Oklahoma and elsewhere. My colleague Liam Stack recently got sick with a breakthrough infection (and I’ll tell you his story below).

On the other hand, the scale of breakthrough infections remains unclear. Are they a significant reason that cases are now surging in the U.S. — and a reason for vaccinated people to be concerned? Or are breakthrough infections rare exceptions that receive outsize attention?

Those are two very different scenarios. If breakthrough infections are an important source of Covid spread, it would suggest that vaccinated people should resume some of their previous precautions, like avoiding crowded places. If Covid is instead spreading overwhelmingly among the unvaccinated, it would suggest that the behavior of the vaccinated doesn’t matter very much; the only reliable way to reduce caseloads would involve more vaccinations.

I’m going to warn you up front that I don’t have a definitive answer for you. “There’s a lot of uncertainty right now,” as Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at Emory University, told me. But there is some evidence that can help you think through the situation while scientists collect more data.

What we know
Let’s start with a few facts that are clear:

Vaccinated people are nearly guaranteed not to be hospitalized or killed by Covid.

Among children under 12, who remain ineligible for the vaccine, serious forms of Covid are also extremely rare. Children face bigger risks when they ride in a car.

The Delta variant does not appear to change either of those facts.

Millions of unvaccinated American adults are vulnerable to hospitalization or death from Covid.

Given all of this, the most effective Covid-fighting strategy has not changed, experts say: “Shots in arms,” as my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli writes. Or as Dean says, “The biggest problem is that there are a lot of people with no protection.”

And there are measures that would almost certainly increase vaccinations: Full F.D.A. approval (which hasn’t happened despite public endorsements of the vaccines by the F.D.A.’s leaders); vaccine mandates from employers and local governments; and pro-vaccination messages from Republican politicians, professional athletes and other people who have credibility among vaccine skeptics. Any of these steps would almost certainly have a bigger effect than behavioral changes among the vaccinated.

Still, I understand why many vaccinated people are wondering if they should change their behavior. I feel the same way. I don’t want to contribute to the spread of the virus, and I would rather not contract even a modest version of Covid.

Among other reasons, the risks of “long Covid” remain uncertain. Yes, those risks get exaggerated sometimes: Many viruses, like influenza, cause long-term symptoms, and some of the focus on long Covid stems from society’s current obsession with all things Covid. There is still no rigorous study that compares long Covid with “long flu.” But long Covid is probably worse, which argues for caution.

Editors’ Picks

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What we don’t know
How common, then, are breakthrough infections?

One reason for optimism is the recent trend among the most vaccinated segments of society: older people. About 80 percent of Americans over age 65 have been fully vaccinated. This chart looks at the U.S. since late June, when cases began rising:


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This chart looks at England — where more than 90 percent of older people are vaccinated — since late May, when cases began rising there:


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As you can see, new cases have risen only modestly among people over 65, suggesting that breakthrough infections are rare. “I think people who are vaccinated are not, on a population level, major contributors to the transmission of the disease,” Dr. David Dowdy, a Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist, told me.

Part of the reason is that vaccinated people are both less likely to get infected and less likely to pass on the virus even if they do get infected, scientists say. A vaccinated person without Covid symptoms seems especially unlikely to infect somebody else.

“What is clear is that people who are vaccinated and have symptomatic breakthrough infections can transmit it to other people,” Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University said. “What is not at all clear is whether vaccinated asymptomatic people can transmit it. And my best guess is no — or not very often.”

He added: “I’m not worried about an asymptomatic vaccinated person spreading it to me.”

Of course, a vaccinated person can still get the virus from somebody who has symptoms or hasn’t been vaccinated. Liam Stack, a Times reporter who covers religion, was fully vaccinated by April but nonetheless caught the virus in June, probably socializing with friends, either at a bar or a beach house, he says.

“It was not the sickest I’ve ever been, but it was very disruptive,” he told me. He was sick for a full week, with flulike symptoms, including congestion, muscle aches and fatigue. One day, he took a three-hour nap around lunchtime, followed by a two-hour nap before dinner.

Liam is feeling better now, and, as far as he knows, none of his friends or family members contracted the virus from him. But he does not recommend the experience. “It was unpleasant,” he said.


Image
A Covid-19 testing site in Palmetto, Fla.
A Covid-19 testing site in Palmetto, Fla.Credit...Octavio Jones for The New York Times
The bottom line
Different vaccinated people are going to make different decisions, and that’s OK. I find the risk of breakthrough infections to be small enough that I’m not going to make major changes to my behavior.

I would feel differently if I lived in a community with a lower vaccination rate — or if I lived with somebody who was vulnerable to Covid because of an immunodeficiency. And the current surge in cases has changed my thinking. I will again wear a mask sometimes when in close contact with strangers, even if it has little tangible effect. The main reason to do so, as Dowdy said, is to contribute to a shared sense that we have entered a worrisome new phase of the pandemic.

It’s also important that the country not respond in ways that would do more harm than good — say, by delaying the full reopening of schools, Dowdy added. For vaccinated people, Covid still represents a very small risk, and the cost of our response should not exceed the benefits.

But when cases are surging, as they are now, our approach to Covid should be different than when they are plunging.

For more: My colleague Tara Parker-Pope and Slate’s Susan Matthews have both written thoughtful pieces with advice about breakthrough infections. And today’s episode of “The Daily” examines the subject too.

 

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They're finally realizing that all the voter suppression in the world won't help if your own voters are disproportionately dying.

Too late.

The positions are set in stone, and among the “never ever getting it” crowd, the one thing they can never do is admit they were wrong. They will stick with that to, literally, the death.
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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Too late.

The positions are set in stone, and among the “never ever getting it” crowd, the one thing they can never do is admit they were wrong. They will stick with that to, literally, the death.

When you either foment the belief, or outright state, that covid is a hoax, there is a cure (HCQ, Ivermectin, whatever), there's a microchip in the vax, etc., you're not suddenly going to get people to get vaccinated just by pulling out the Trump trope of accusing Democrats of... whatever it is she is accusing them.

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36 minutes ago, Red Six said:

They're finally realizing that all the voter suppression in the world won't help if your own voters are disproportionately dying.

The way to use this to society’s advantage: spin antivax propaganda as a plot by Democrats and RINOs and Never Trumpers to kill off Trump supporters. Note that Trump has not badmouthed vaccines and in fact created the vaccine himself through Operation Warp Speed. Those spreading the antivax message are his enemies, and are trying like hell to deny him a second term in 2024 by literally killing Patriots.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


Too late.

The positions are set in stone, and among the “never ever getting it” crowd, the one thing they can never do is admit they were wrong. They will stick with that to, literally, the death.

They will travel 3 counties away to get the vaccine so no one from their town sees them, then continue to shout at the clouds against it.  

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You data folks correct me if I’m wrong but early on the olds got it in January and February. Like over 70% in most places, right? It was only after Trump was gone that Fox and the death cult went to work and we saw the huge drop off. 

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2 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Left: Vaccination coverage may of Texas by county. Right:  2020 presidential election results by county.

Trump's legacy will be the death of tens of thousands of his supporters even though he was one of the first to receive the vaccine. 




 

Vaccination coverage Trump.jpg

There’s no way Hispanic vaccination is that high. 

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4 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:






 

trump vaccine not safe cartoon.jpg

So perfect. Even down to the detail where they are mad at you for pointing out the flaw in their Matrix. Immediately followed by them ending the conversation or changing the topic, usually to some other perceived grievance. 

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1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I'm not so sure - the valley got hit hard enough the first time around, it might have wiped out a lot of hesitancy.

Sounds anecdotal and doesn't jibe with anything you read anywhere else.  Latinos in Texas are getting vaxxed at about 80% the clip everyone else.  Basically all other states show them lagging.  They are closing the gap now (seemingly because we've hit a hard plateau on whites and not yet on minorities), but definitely not enough to be dark like that map shows

 

My guess is there some math issues.  Either people are coming over from Mexico and getting a shot, which ups the numerator artificially,  or we aren't counting all the people in the county (e.g., because of citizenship) which drops the denominator.  Or both.  But you basically cannot have both the Latino numbers that low in all the reporting and the border counties that high, given the demographics of those counties. 

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21 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

All the doctors I’ve heard say that just because you’ve had it doesn’t mean you’re immune and doesn’t mean you shouldn’t get vaccinated. I’ll trust the doctors. 

Yeah, but don't listen to the doctors, listen to my dumbass step brother who "thinks I still have the antibodies, so I'm going to wait and see" meanwhile he got it originally back in march of 2020.  

16 hours ago, lmao said:

 

Thanks for answering the question. Knowing that prior infection counts toward herd immunity is a good thing. As you stated it is the worst way to go but a certain % of the pop foolishley won't get vaccinated. 

Does it? For how long? While it makes sense that it confers some protection for some period of time, I've seen nothing so far that states for how long that protection might last.  Until we know that, it's not very smart to rely on that as your yardstick for measuring herd immunity.

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2 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

Sounds anecdotal and doesn't jibe with anything you read anywhere else.  Latinos in Texas are getting vaxxed at about 80% the clip everyone else.  Basically all other states show them lagging.  They are closing the gap now (seemingly because we've hit a hard plateau on whites and not yet on minorities), but definitely not enough to be dark like that map shows

 

My guess is there some math issues.  Either people are coming over from Mexico and getting a shot, which ups the numerator artificially,  or we aren't counting all the people in the county (e.g., because of citizenship) which drops the denominator.  Or both.  But you basically cannot have both the Latino numbers that low in all the reporting and the border counties that high, given the demographics of those counties. 

I don't know the area, but I do know that before COVID was a thing, a school administrator friend of mine used to rail on the dumbass anti-vaxxers in Austin because the measles vaccine gives you autism, and said on many occasions, that there were lots of problems with the valley, but getting their kids vaccinated wasn't one of them.  If there's a vaccine, it's not a hard sell to the valley community to get shots in arms.  This wasn't applied to COVID vaccines specifically, because COVID 19 wasn't a thing yet, so I don't know if there is some difference there, but her general statement on vaccinations in the valley has stuck with me for years now.

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5 hours ago, Red Six said:

They're finally realizing that all the voter suppression in the world won't help if your own voters are disproportionately dying.

That, and the Rascal Scooter Corporation, the various companies that provide supplies to diabetics, the XXXL clothing suppliers, etc. are probably lobbying politicians like made to keep their customers alive.

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5 hours ago, Red Six said:

When you either foment the belief, or outright state, that covid is a hoax, there is a cure (HCQ, Ivermectin, whatever), there's a microchip in the vax, etc., you're not suddenly going to get people to get vaccinated just by pulling out the Trump trope of accusing Democrats of... whatever it is she is accusing them.

4 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

The way to use this to society’s advantage: spin antivax propaganda as a plot by Democrats and RINOs and Never Trumpers to kill off Trump supporters. Note that Trump has not badmouthed vaccines and in fact created the vaccine himself through Operation Warp Speed. Those spreading the antivax message are his enemies, and are trying like hell to deny him a second term in 2024 by literally killing Patriots.

I've been tempted to tell a few that the real Democratic ploy is to make people suspicious of the vaccine so they don't get it, and then the Delta variant was deliberately released to wipe out all the unvaccinated, while keeping the vaccinated Democrats from having to go to the hospital or even die.

 

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Just now, washparkhorn said:

Agree - and as a qualification for farm subsidies, big oil subsidies, PPP type no need to repay loans, federal contracting, and Medicare benefits.

I am with you on the CMS stuff for sure given the direct connection to healthcare.  But could get on board with the others as well.  Although I woudl prefer that we just do away with the subsidies all together.  Maybe Uncle Joe could get on board with some partial student loan forgiveness. $5k forgiven for a two shot mRNA regimen. 

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21 hours ago, lmao said:

 

Thanks for answering the question. Knowing that prior infection counts toward herd immunity is a good thing. As you stated it is the worst way to go but a certain % of the pop foolishley won't get vaccinated. 

He didn't answer the question. He answered an alternative question.

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1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

This is what is maddening. Trump was one of the first to get the vaccine. He did an interview back in March or April saying everyone should get the vaccine and talking about the millions of lives the vaccine is saving. Mitch McConnell has been an advocate for the vaccine going way back. I’m not sure about McCarthy but I know he’s vaccinated at least. Yet the common clay of the New Republican Party all think it is some kind of liberal conspiracy to kill them.

 

I posted on a friend from high school‘s timeline yesterday after he put a picture of lab mice talking about not getting the vaccine because it was still being tested on humans. I made a very even toned post explaining how and why the vaccine was safe and asking what his specific concerns were regarding risk and told him I would be happy to go into detail about mechanism etc. he admitted it’s simply the fear of the unknown. 

Get'em Doc

Dolly's not as sweet sister

 

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3 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

This is what is maddening. Trump was one of the first to get the vaccine. He did an interview back in March or April saying everyone should get the vaccine and talking about the millions of lives the vaccine is saving. Mitch McConnell has been an advocate for the vaccine going way back. I’m not sure about McCarthy but I know he’s vaccinated at least. Yet the common clay of the New Republican Party all think it is some kind of liberal conspiracy to kill them.

 

I posted on a friend from high school‘s timeline yesterday after he put a picture of lab mice talking about not getting the vaccine because it was still being tested on humans. I made a very even toned post explaining how and why the vaccine was safe and asking what his specific concerns were regarding risk and told him I would be happy to go into detail about mechanism etc. he admitted it’s simply the fear of the unknown. Some of his friends that I don’t know jumped in with stupid comments, calling me a liberal just pushing fear, saying the virus is bullshit, etc.  I then commented again in a reasonable tone that the vaccine is safe, Covid is killing people and is currently only killing the non-vaccinated with rare exception and then started commented on the hospitals I work at seeing the numbers go way up. The smart ass comments stopped, I’m assuming because when they made them they did not know they were addressing a physician. My last comment killed the thread.  I doubt any of the commenters changed their mind, but they knew any more bullshit they threw out would be shot down. I always stay nice on such threads because my hope is that some lurkers will read it and take my words to heart 

JFC.  Honestly good on you.  That's fucking rough, but yes, the lurkers, of which there are WAY more than I'm sure we realize, might learn something.  Might.  Or they might fucking die.  Fuck them all.

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2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Getting a shot of Pfizer at Walgreens on 45th tomorrow on top of my J&J from March.  On recs of an internal medicine doc and an infectious disease doc.  Maybe I'll get super powers.

Good for them for being proactive with their recommendations. 

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15 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

To be fair, I reached out to them, mainly because of this thread. 

At least they are being receptive to the inquiries from their patients.  And good on you as well for being proactive.

 

There will come a time in near future when the FDA/CDC will move wrt JNJ single dose booster recs and it will a clusterfuck in the short term to deal with the demand spike.  

Edited by Anastasis
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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

To be fair, I reached out to them, mainly because of this thread. 

Sucks that we are in this situation, where you are having to decide health issues in consultation with your doctor before the CDC updates their guidelines, but this is 100% what I'd be recommending any family or friends do, especially as they approach the 6 month post vaccination mark. Caveat that I'm not a doctor, so this isn't medical advice. I'm an evolutionary biologist and have obsessively read a lot of the papers on covid, including these. The data on these mixed vaccinations looks really good and hasn't changed materially in at least a month and a half. 

 

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

At least they are being receptive to the inquiries from their patients.  And good on you as well for being proactive.

 

There will come a time in near future when the FDA/CDC will move wrt JNJ single dose booster recs and it will a clusterfuck in the short term to deal with the demand spike.  

I agree with this. It's considerably overdue, as per usual so far in this pandemic. Frustrating that we discussed this a month ago and people are still waiting on the CDC to update their guidelines. 

 

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5 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

This is what is maddening. Trump was one of the first to get the vaccine. He did an interview back in March or April saying everyone should get the vaccine and talking about the millions of lives the vaccine is saving. Mitch McConnell has been an advocate for the vaccine going way back. I’m not sure about McCarthy but I know he’s vaccinated at least. Yet the common clay of the New Republican Party all think it is some kind of liberal conspiracy to kill them.

I posted on a friend from high school‘s timeline yesterday after he put a picture of lab mice talking about not getting the vaccine because it was still being tested on humans. I made a very even toned post explaining how and why the vaccine was safe and asking what his specific concerns were regarding risk and told him I would be happy to go into detail about mechanism etc. he admitted it’s simply the fear of the unknown. Some of his friends that I don’t know jumped in with stupid comments, calling me a liberal just pushing fear, saying the virus is bullshit, etc.  I then commented again in a reasonable tone that the vaccine is safe, Covid is killing people and is currently only killing the non-vaccinated with rare exception and then started commented on the hospitals I work at seeing the numbers go way up. The smart ass comments stopped, I’m assuming because when they made them they did not know they were addressing a physician. My last comment killed the thread.  I doubt any of the commenters changed their mind, but they knew any more bullshit they threw out would be shot down. I always stay nice on such threads because my hope is that some lurkers will read it and take my words to heart 

All you liberals with your book learnin’ and knowin’ shit.

I think part of the problem with the right sowing misinformation is the fact that Joe Biden has a high approval rating for his handling of the pandemic. And they can’t have that. So they don’t want to see him have success in getting people vaccinated. But then that leads to the deaths of a bunch of their supporters. It’s a hard line to walk. Heaven forbid that they put politics aside for just one minute and concern themselves with the greater human good. 

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11 hours ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Yeah, but don't listen to the doctors, listen to my dumbass step brother who "thinks I still have the antibodies, so I'm going to wait and see" meanwhile he got it originally back in march of 2020.  

Does it? For how long? While it makes sense that it confers some protection for some period of time, I've seen nothing so far that states for how long that protection might last.  Until we know that, it's not very smart to rely on that as your yardstick for measuring herd immunity.

I'll post this again -- pretty sure I've posted this on this exact thread. I had COVID in March 2020, confirmed by antibody test at the end of April 2020. In December, I asked to have my antibody level checked during other bloodwork and I no longer had antibodies then.

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3 hours ago, C-Man said:

I'll post this again -- pretty sure I've posted this on this exact thread. I had COVID in March 2020, confirmed by antibody test at the end of April 2020. In December, I asked to have my antibody level checked during other bloodwork and I no longer had antibodies then.

Doesn’t mean you’re not immune. Tcells are the primary source of immunity for the other known coronaviruses so presumably are for Covid as well. I would like to see a study comparing reinfection rates among those who have recovered from covid and breakthrough cases among vaccinated 

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