CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[Eastwood 4394]

Is there any talk of postponing school starts or temporarily going with remote learning? This seems like the absolute worse time to start school in the next couple of weeks as a wave is starting to hit. Feels like trying to put out a fire with gasoline.
This will jam up ERs because when junior gets sick, parents will rush him to the ER.

Our household is very concerned. The numbers are greater than when they shut things down the last time, this version is more virulent, and we have been stripped of the resources that gave us the freedom to make a choice. We were excited to have the kids back in school when there were 80 cases a day, not 1500. We can't afford private schools and can't swing homeschooling.

Those who were angry last year were saying that they had their freedom to choose stripped by the government, but they still eventually got to send their kids to school. Now, the roles have reversed and they are celebrating it. Freedom was never the issue. It was control. If they had any concerns about freedom of choice, they would have supported a virtual option or let the school districts decide on mask mandates, since that was what they were clamoring for the first time.

Our school district has had to send out a couple of emails saying they wish they could do something, but they legally can't. They have also been sending regular emails touting the benefits of public schools and pushing back enrollment dates. The school district has a large population that can afford private or home schooling, so I'm assuming enrollment numbers are significantly down or have begun to drop. And this time next year, our family will be back in a position to utilize that option. We're seriously leaning that way.

[BrickHorn 18434]

Just now, heso said:

And what the timeframe of their vaccination was. 

And how old they are. About half of Austin’s population is vaccinated, but there’s a distinct correlation with age. If 80% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated, I’d bet that means the chance for serious illness in any age group is cut at least 1/10th by full vaccination. 

[jimmyjazz 47055]

I didn't include the age & vaccine slides, because the sample size they used was different (54 vs 284), and I don't know why, but maybe it will help answer some of those questions.  Note that the percentiles for the 54 patients do add up to 100, so I guess it's safe to assume no covid hospitalizations in that group were 29 years old or younger, for whatever that's worth.  Beyond that, I don't think anyone should conclude that J&J and Moderna are more resistant to breakthrough than Pfizer, because we don't know how many vaccines of each type were distributed in Austin.  I would not be shocked if Pfizer dominated.

APH presentation slides

Edited August 4, 2021 by jimmyjazz

[GhostOfTomJoad 9507]

BIL being admitted to ER now. 104° temp, coughing blood, 02 saturation at 70%. This is officially bad news.

[jimmyjazz 47055]

O2 of 70% is terrible.  I was hospitalized several times in my younger days for pneumonia, and when I got down to 88% it felt like my lung capacity was essentially nil.

[Captainant 28470]

6 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

BIL being admitted to ER now. 104° temp, coughing blood, 02 saturation at 70%. This is officially bad news.

shit man, that's awful to hear. I'm so sorry

[Neonmoon 38130]

7 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

BIL being admitted to ER now. 104° temp, coughing blood, 02 saturation at 70%. This is officially bad news.

Sorry to hear man. Fuck. Sending good thoughts your way

[jimmyjazz 47055]

An eye-opening graph, but I wish it was a little more current, as it pretty much ignores the delta variant:

[Anastasis 23708]

16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I didn't include the age & vaccine slides, because the sample size they used was different (54 vs 284), and I don't know why, but maybe it will help answer some of those questions.  Note that the percentiles for the 54 patients do add up to 100, so I guess it's safe to assume no covid hospitalizations in that group were 29 years old or younger, for whatever that's worth.  Beyond that, I don't think anyone should conclude that J&J and Moderna are more resistant to breakthrough than Pfizer, because we don't know how many vaccines of each type were distributed in Austin.  I would not be shocked if Pfizer dominated.

APH presentation slides

 

 

Vax brand of the breakthrough cases is interesting....small numbers and lots of potential confounders, but interdasting none the less. 

[Captainant 28470]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Vax brand of the breakthrough cases is interesting....small numbers and lots of potential confounders, but interdasting none the less. 

I wonder what the distribution of vaccines by brand to the different groups was... IIRC, the olds were the first to get the vaccine which tended to be Pfizer. Either way, LOTS of noise in that data that makes it hard to even draw a correlation

[MC Fresh Breath 4075]

26 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

BIL being admitted to ER now. 104° temp, coughing blood, 02 saturation at 70%. This is officially bad news.

I'm sorry.

 

[Anastasis 23708]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I wonder what the distribution of vaccines by brand to the different groups was... IIRC, the olds were the first to get the vaccine which tended to be Pfizer. Either way, LOTS of noise in that data that makes it hard to even draw a correlation

Agree.  That is the most likely explanation.  Age has to be a strong confounder. Will be interesting to keep tracking though.

 

BTW, that APH document has lots of good information and is worth a skim.  

Edited August 4, 2021 by Anastasis

[Macanudo 13279]

32 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Our household is very concerned. The numbers are greater than when they shut things down the last time, this version is more virulent, and we have been stripped of the resources that gave us the freedom to make a choice. We were excited to have the kids back in school when there were 80 cases a day, not 1500. We can't afford private schools and can't swing homeschooling.

Those who were angry last year were saying that they had their freedom to choose stripped by the government, but they still eventually got to send their kids to school. Now, the roles have reversed and they are celebrating it. Freedom was never the issue. It was control. If they had any concerns about freedom of choice, they would have supported a virtual option or let the school districts decide on mask mandates, since that was what they were clamoring for the first time.

Our school district has had to send out a couple of emails saying they wish they could do something, but they legally can't. They have also been sending regular emails touting the benefits of public schools and pushing back enrollment dates. The school district has a large population that can afford private or home schooling, so I'm assuming enrollment numbers are significantly down or have begun to drop. And this time next year, our family will be back in a position to utilize that option. We're seriously leaning that way.

We're in Humble ISD and these jackholes were gung ho to open up at full capacity last year at this time as we were just coming off the summer spike.   They made on-line education so incredibly hard for the teachers to do and terribly bad for the students that most threw their hands up (including me) and just sent our kids back to school by the middle of September.   They did keep a mask mandate in place but didn't enforce it at all.   The superintendent and school board are a bunch of right wing conservatives who when presented with actual science and data pretty much went "Nu-uh!   That's bull crap fake news!"  Every school board meeting they had in the fall was overwhelmingly attended (by those who asked questions) by parents like me who wanted better safety and health requirements.   Every meeting ended with the school board finding some reason to ignore us.

Now, here we are in the fall and they have said that positive tests will not be required to be reported to the schools.   They are not requiring any kind of quarantine and of course, due to Wheels, there can't be a mask mandate.   Houston ICUs are already seriously into 2nd level of COVID case load counts.   Trends look like we'll be at 2,000 COVID patients in the ICU soon just for the Houston area.  We've had 3 COVID deaths out here in the past week.   One was a 13 year old middle school kid and another is a HS teacher at Summercreek (Atascosita/Humble area.)   The other was 35-40 year old dude who was in decent health prior to dying.  

So, in conclusion, we're fucked.

[Brisketexan 106820]

We're in Humble ISD and these jackholes were gung ho to open up at full capacity last year at this time as we were just coming off the summer spike.   They made on-line education so incredibly hard for the teachers to do and terribly bad for the students that most threw their hands up (including me) and just sent our kids back to school by the middle of September.   They did keep a mask mandate in place but didn't enforce it at all.   The superintendent and school board are a bunch of right wing conservatives who when presented with actual science and data pretty much went "Nu-uh!   That's bull crap fake news!"  Every school board meeting they had in the fall was overwhelmingly attended (by those who asked questions) by parents like me who wanted better safety and health requirements.   Every meeting ended with the school board finding some reason to ignore us.
Now, here we are in the fall and they have said that positive tests will not be required to be reported to the schools.   They are not requiring any kind of quarantine and of course, due to Wheels, there can't be a mask mandate.   Houston ICUs are already seriously into 2nd level of COVID case load counts.   Trends look like we'll be at 2,000 COVID patients in the ICU soon just for the Houston area.  We've had 3 COVID deaths out here in the past week.   One was a 13 year old middle school kid and another is a HS teacher at Summercreek (Atascosita/Humble area.)   The other was 35-40 year old dude who was in decent health prior to dying.  
So, in conclusion, we're fucked.

You sound like a pussy sheep who doesn’t like freedom.

[Biff Tannen 46108]

1 hour ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

BIL being admitted to ER now. 104° temp, coughing blood, 02 saturation at 70%. This is officially bad news.

Damn.  Assuming unvaccinated?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13723]

Non-parent here but are any of your school districts offering remote/video learning for the start of the school year? Screw wearing a mask, I wouldn't want my non-existent kid being in the classroom even if wearing a mask.

Masks are great for random, limited contact with someone that is COVID positive. But sitting near a COVID positive kid for 8 hours is a bad idea even if you're wearing a mask. Remember all of those early COVID days discussions of how easy it is to misuse a mask by it being poorly fitted or if you touch the mask too much?

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2153]

AISD is allowing remote learning under the law that allows for homebound students (like, people with brain injuries or other super serious stuff) for people that don't want to send their kids to school.  Usually that is like a half dozen kids in the city.  Now it is going to be thousands.  They will inevitably get legal push back.

[RDCanecutter 26862]

16 hours ago, Zepol87 said:

Can't be any worse than the penicillin shot. Fucking peanut butter in my ass then we had a PT test the next day. 

There's always another PT test, as you found out long ago.

[Captainant 28470]

1 minute ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

AISD is allowing remote learning under the law that allows for homebound students (like, people with brain injuries or other super serious stuff) for people that don't want to send their kids to school.  Usually that is like a half dozen kids in the city.  Now it is going to be thousands.  They will inevitably get legal push back.

Houston's mandate for all public employees to wear facemasks again directly violates Abbot's executive order - there's going to be a bunch of legal pissing matches still yet to come

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2153]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

Houston's mandate for all public employees to wear facemasks again directly violates Abbot's executive order - there's going to be a bunch of legal pissing matches still yet to come

I know of another school that is mandating all everybody wear masks, students and teachers alike.  It's a wink wink nudge nudge this isn't mandated mandate, but it's a mandate.  

[RDCanecutter 26862]

17 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

The stupid in a lot of different quarters on this whole Pandemic is so fucking frustrated.  I am fucking livid.  Fucking get vaccinated and mask the fuck up.  We will get through this, but holy shit.  

I am so angry and annoyed, that I am almost to the point of wishing that everyone that is unvaxxed will fucking find out.  I am also hoping that those who are throwing hissy fits about masks (I hate fucking wearing a mask, but I am doing it because I DO NOT WANT TO GET SICK OR CAUSE SOMEONE ELSE TO GET SICK!) will fucking find out.  I am tired of it all.  Like many others, my whole fucking life was put on hold for the last year and a half.  I have made EVERY effort to make the best of it, but if selfish fucksticks cause someone I love to get seriously sick (they are all vaccinated now, even my brother, and wear masks in public) or cause me to have to cancel my first fucking real vacation in 2.5 years, I am going to fucking lose my fucking mind.  Fuck all these selfish, fucking assholes.

Dr. Mark Southern at UT taught us that "fuck" is one of the oldest words in the English language. Actually, it predates the existence of English as a separate language-- the F-K sounds shifted in Germanic from an original Indo-European P-G that meant to hit something, like maybe hit it and quit it. So it's cognate with things like "pugnacious" and Latin "pugnare" to fight.

Who knows? Fuck it, I'll buy it.

[Neonmoon 38130]

42 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Agree.  That is the most likely explanation.  Age has to be a strong confounder. Will be interesting to keep tracking though.

 

BTW, that APH document has lots of good information and is worth a skim.  

Agree. APH slides had good info. Also shows Moderna holding up better against breakthroughs than Pfizer (which i selfishly think is nice). But not too many breakthroughs, and mostly we’re older. 

[Macanudo 13279]

37 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You sound like a pussy sheep who doesn’t like freedom.

Baah means no.

[RDCanecutter 26862]

13 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

It's utterly amazing how the GQP are political chameleons.  And it works.

 

 

13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

For all of the shots they gave us, it still seemed like the first 2-3 weeks of boot camp was nothing but coming down with every fucking "normal" disease (flu, colds, etc.) you might experience in the course of a year, but in the span of 2-3 weeks.

Do you remember "mule kicks?" One Drill Sergeant loved those. I did 100s of mule kicks while my sinuses and lungs were full of Elmer's Glue congealed snot. An exquisite sensation every time you'd land. 

But then one morning run, I coughed up a phlegm-sculpture of my trachea. Like, a 3d-model. Really chewy too. You know how you'll eat a rindy blood-booger and then a soft part of it will get stuck in a molar and you have to lick lick lick back and forth to get it all? Like that, except all greenish and rubbery. Like snot-calamari.

So that cleared up my lungs. Later the Gas Chamber gave my sinuses relief. Like, chunks of blood and boogers draining like an endless piece of pasta from up in my forehead. Then that cold clean air hitting up in there. Brain freeze!

Edited August 4, 2021 by RDCanecutter
I don't know why that first fucking quote is there.

[InkaUtexas 26849]

Ahhh.... The gas chamber was the best for cleaning out your sinuses. 

 

[Bateshorn 9989]

38 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Non-parent here but are any of your school districts offering remote/video learning for the start of the school year? Screw wearing a mask, I wouldn't want my non-existent kid being in the classroom even if wearing a mask.

Masks are great for random, limited contact with someone that is COVID positive. But sitting near a COVID positive kid for 8 hours is a bad idea even if you're wearing a mask. Remember all of those early COVID days discussions of how easy it is to misuse a mask by it being poorly fitted or if you touch the mask too much?

Prince George’s County, MD is going to in person, full masking/vaxxed, but will allow online for K-6 until vaccination is available, as well as an online academy for 7-12 grade students who thrive in an online environment.

[RDCanecutter 26862]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there any talk of postponing school starts or temporarily going with remote learning? This seems like the absolute worse time to start school in the next couple of weeks as a wave is starting to hit. Feels like trying to put out a fire with gasoline.

This will jam up ERs because when junior gets sick, parents will rush him to the ER.

The Juco where I sometimes teach has a Fall mask mandate at the moment. I may just take them all outside because who knows what the hell some previous class has been spewing all about the room. If there are any troubled souls that seek out drama, I'll have withdrawal slips ready for them, no hard feelings. Or I might perform an Ignatius O'Reilly and just shit-can all the paperwork. I have very few fucks left.

[Chewbacca 7828]

17 hours ago, Horn Dogg said:

Man, I really don’t know how people can be this fucking stupid for no good reason.  I’ve had people give me grief for wearing my mask and I just say “well, I’m vaccinated, but I have kids under 12 and I don’t want to take chances with them.  I also don’t want to take chances with any other at-risk person and I want to help kill this disease for good.”  They then will spout off about how “kids aren’t that affected by it, etc..”.  Even after I say that taking a chance with my kids or even their kids isn’t worth the risk, they still act like I’m being an asshole for wearing a mask.  These people need to be treated badly until they get their minds right.

We've just started masking up again at the store.  I think if someone says something to me, they're going to get a "mind your own fucking business" out of me.  They are the fucking reason we're back in this mess.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13723]

9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Prince George’s County, MD is going to in person, full masking/vaxxed, but will allow online for K-6 until vaccination is available, as well as an online academy for 7-12 grade students who thrive in an online environment.

It's unfortunate that parents are put to a decision on the health of their kids/family against their child's education by forcing them to go in-person. I would want to think I would hold my kid out and find alternative options but it's easy for me to say that since I don't have that decision. I sympathize with parents.

[Chewbacca 7828]

14 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

It's utterly amazing how the GQP are political chameleons.  And it works.

 

If you stand for nothing other than what you want in that particular moment, it's easy.  And their supporters have shown that they are perfectly OK with being lied to repeatedly as long as you're out there owning libs.

[Biff Tannen 46108]

6 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

We've just started masking up again at the store.  I think if someone says something to me, they're going to get a "mind your own fucking business" out of me.  They are the fucking reason we're back in this mess.

I haven't run into anyone, but I think my response to "why are you wearing a mask?" would be, "does it bother you?  then that's why".

[Bateshorn 9989]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's unfortunate that parents are put to a decision on the health of their kids/family against their child's education by forcing them to go in-person. I would want to think I would hold my kid out and find alternative options but it's easy for me to say that since I don't have that decision. I sympathize with parents.

Our vaccine rates are significantly better than Texas, so I think that’s the impetus. 

[InkaUtexas 26849]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

We've just started masking up again at the store.  I think if someone says something to me, they're going to get a "mind your own fucking business" out of me.  They are the fucking reason we're back in this mess.

Yep, same here. Get some nice looks every time I wear mine into a place. I just glare back and quietly say "fuck you" under my mask. 

[RDCanecutter 26862]

16 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Ahhh.... The gas chamber was the best for cleaning out your sinuses. 

 

The Drill Sergeants spent days telling us the exit door was spring-loaded shut, and we'd have to run full-speed down a hall and hit it with our full body weight to open it.

So when my turn came, best believe I clawed my way over the instructor and down that hall to hit the door. BAM. Didn't open. BAM, hit it again. Didn't open. Looked down through the smoke. A fucking door knob. I turned it and stepped out. Drill Sergeants standing there laughing their asses off at me. Door closed behind me. Then BAM, BAM, next guy trying to run through it. Drill Sergeants laughing again until he saw the knob too. They laughed at every one of us dumb stupid booger-crying fucks.

That was the day I started liking the Drill Sergeants.

[jimmyjazz 47055]

38 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Agree. APH slides had good info. Also shows Moderna holding up better against breakthroughs than Pfizer (which i selfishly think is nice). But not too many breakthroughs, and mostly we’re older. 

I don't think that's necessarily the best conclusion to make on their data.  If Pfizer put a lot more shots in arms than Moderna, then that alone might explain the higher % of breakthrough infections.

[BrickHorn 18434]

30 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't think that's necessarily the best conclusion to make on their data.  If Pfizer put a lot more shots in arms than Moderna, then that alone might explain the higher % of breakthrough infections.

Yep. Not enough info to run a proper Bayesian analysis.

[Brisketexan 106820]

I don't think that's necessarily the best conclusion to make on their data.  If Pfizer put a lot more shots in arms than Moderna, then that alone might explain the higher % of breakthrough infections.

Correct. I’d like to see the breakthrough RATE for each type, and I’d also like to see time since vaccination and age of the breakthrough cases. Gonna take time to get that data.

[Chewbacca 7828]

46 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I haven't run into anyone, but I think my response to "why are you wearing a mask?" would be, "does it bother you?  then that's why".

I like this one, too.  Might have to work it into the rotation.

[MC Fresh Breath 4075]

53 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's unfortunate that parents are put to a decision on the health of their kids/family against their child's education by forcing them to go in-person. I would want to think I would hold my kid out and find alternative options but it's easy for me to say that since I don't have that decision. I sympathize with parents.

I would have thought I would have stuck with what you said.  But for our family, remote schooling was a pretty miserable experience.  Neither my wife nor I were ever prepared to be home schooling parents, and in our situation, that's exactly what you had to be--constantly riding them to show up on time for zoom meetings.  riding them for doing the work they were supposed to do.  this all on screens with youtube access so constantly trying to lock that down (stupid school vpn bypassed my filters).   There was trepidation when they went back in person, but those last 6 (?) weeks were so much better for our family it was amazing.  Lots of tension relieved, all work done in class, e.t.c.

I do know remote worked for many, but for us it was horrible.  Being new to the area didn't help either, as my kids had not met anyone in person aside from neighbors.  

Edit: obviously not as horrible as having them come down with a potential killer virus and/or suffering "long Covid."  But it still wasn't fun.

Edited August 4, 2021 by MC Fresh Breath

[GhostOfTomJoad 9507]

Damn.  Assuming unvaccinated?

Yep. A Fox News junkie who thumbed his nose at the disease and vax. He fucked around and is finding out. Bigly.

[HenryJames 67258]

 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[Biff Tannen 46108]

22 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

[HenryJames 67258]

 

[HenryJames 67258]

 

[Biff Tannen 46108]

3 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

A couple of those are barely english.

[Neonmoon 38130]

 

Talk about FAAFO

[BrickHorn 18434]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

 

Talk about FAAFO

He’s free now.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13723]

I feel bad for anyone that dies from COVID even if they mistakenly didn't get the vaccine. But if they actively tried to get others to not take the vaccine, I don't really see the loss and it's good that the hospital bed was freed up for someone else.

[shnsajax 3606]

Boise ISD unanimously implemented a mask mandate for the coming school year. Really happy about this and this will help to identify the dumb fucks who protest it on the first day of school.

Don’t want another year of virtual school, and my kids would rather wear a mask and be in the classroom.