CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

7 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Jimmy thinks Covid zero is the time we can remove masks. 

I don't think that at all.  Negged for lying.

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

dp

Edited April 19, 2022 by jimmyjazz

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

7 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

By then maybe he’ll eat a restaurant for 2nd time since March 2020.

Way past 2X already.

[Captainant 27,311]

6 hours ago, Satchel said:

When stories trump data - the staying power of a lie:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90741596/the-weird-story-behind-true-crime-podcast-tiffany-dover-is-dead

In late 2020, a rumor started circulating online that Tiffany Dover, a nurse in Tennessee, had died after receiving her COVID-19 vaccination shot. But none of that was true: Despite any claims otherwise, Dover is very much alive. And Brandy Zadrozny, a journalist known for her extensive reporting on misinformation, wants to prove it to the people spreading these lies

Yeah bu-bu-bu-but who gets to decide if something is misinformation or not! That's a legitimate story in my political reality, don't censor the narrative!

 

/s

[Captainant 27,311]

6 hours ago, Satchel said:

When stories trump data - the staying power of a lie:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90741596/the-weird-story-behind-true-crime-podcast-tiffany-dover-is-dead

In late 2020, a rumor started circulating online that Tiffany Dover, a nurse in Tennessee, had died after receiving her COVID-19 vaccination shot. But none of that was true: Despite any claims otherwise, Dover is very much alive. And Brandy Zadrozny, a journalist known for her extensive reporting on misinformation, wants to prove it to the people spreading these lies

Yeah bu-bu-bu-but who gets to decide if something is misinformation or not! That's a legitimate story in my political reality, don't censor the narrative!

 

/s

[Captainant 27,311]

6 hours ago, Satchel said:

When stories trump data - the staying power of a lie:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90741596/the-weird-story-behind-true-crime-podcast-tiffany-dover-is-dead

In late 2020, a rumor started circulating online that Tiffany Dover, a nurse in Tennessee, had died after receiving her COVID-19 vaccination shot. But none of that was true: Despite any claims otherwise, Dover is very much alive. And Brandy Zadrozny, a journalist known for her extensive reporting on misinformation, wants to prove it to the people spreading these lies

Yeah bu-bu-bu-but who gets to decide if something is misinformation or not! That's a legitimate story in my political reality, don't censor the narrative!

 

/s

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,134]

8 hours ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

It's not like I want people dying either but at the same time if 99.9% of the deaths are people who chose not to get vaccinated then I really don't feel bad for them at this point.  If someone chooses to not wear a helmet while riding a motorcycle, I don't wish death on them but at the same time if they wreck and die and a helmet would have saved their life then that is on them.  

Here are the stats from the CDC. At the recent January peak 90% of those who died from COVID were unvaccinated. Of the 10% of Vaccinated that died, 80% were 80+ years "young", 17% were 65-79. So 97% of vaccinated deaths were 65+.

Also if under 50, while almost 10x better numbers for vaccinated vs unvaccinated, combined they accounted for only 1% of deaths (0.1%/0.9%).

Vaccines are optional, vaccines work. But as you say, if you don't want to get it, that's on you.

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by MonkeyDoughnut

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

20 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

It’s endemic. It’s never going away. 

I'm simply trying to impress upon people the seriousness of the current disease.  225,000 dead Americans since Thanksgiving isn't anything to dismiss.  There's a decent chance covid will be the leading cause of death in America for 2022, and switching the descriptor from "pandemic" to "endemic" doesn't change that.

 

 

[Sawbonz 27,375]

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm simply trying to impress upon people the seriousness of the current disease.  225,000 dead Americans since Thanksgiving isn't anything to dismiss.  There's a decent chance covid will be the leading cause of death in America for 2022, and switching the descriptor from "pandemic" to "endemic" doesn't change that.

 

 

I don’t think most people question the seriousness of the disease. Most people realize that zero Covid it is not a possibility. In fact, even since the very beginning, it has never been a stated goal of any public health agency in the US. If you look at the daily case counts, it felt precipitously until about 1 March and has leveled off. Mask mandates at this point are not worth the pushback. Public health is never about zero disease/deaths

Edited April 19, 2022 by Sawbonz

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

Daily case counts are currently rising, and the CDC estimates the actual active case count is over 14X higher than the reported number.

Fatigue is not a good policy driver.  But, 'murica.

[lemonlime 5,503]

5 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I don’t think most people question the seriousness of the disease. 

Seriously?  Most people not in the cult don't question the seriousness of the disease.  But about a third of the country thinks it's a liberal conspiracy hoax.

Also, regardless of the public health aspects, I hope this doesn't further fuck with flight schedules when the FAs keep having to call in sick with BA.2.

[Sawbonz 27,375]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Daily case counts are currently rising, and the CDC estimates the actual active case count is over 14X higher than the reported number.

Fatigue is not a good policy driver.  But, 'murica.

Again, case counts are always going to fluctuate. Hospitalizations are down. Every hospital in DFW including all of the trauma/Covid centers are wide open for business. They have been since January even when the Delta spike was at its worst. This disease is here to stay. You can dig your feet in and do what you want.Public health policy has to account for more than just number of cases/deaths. It really sucks when people die. Preventable deaths are even worse. We have preventable deaths every day from things other than Covid yet our public health and safety policies are not designed for minimum deaths at the cost of all else.

[Sawbonz 27,375]

3 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Seriously?  Most people not in the cult don't question the seriousness of the disease.  But about a third of the country thinks it's a liberal conspiracy hoax.

Also, regardless of the public health aspects, I hope this doesn't further fuck with flight schedules when the FAs keep having to call in sick with BA.2.

Do you know what the word most means? 

[DigglerontheHoof 21,022]

How many vaccinated people are dying from covid on a daily basis?

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,134]

11 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

How many vaccinated people are dying from covid on a daily basis?

 

In United Status, currently < 50 and vast majority as expected the elderly. So for non-elderly, its less than the average number of people that die of drowning each day for perspective.

[DigglerontheHoof 21,022]

11 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

In United Status, currently < 50 and vast majority as expected the elderly. So for non-elderly, its less than the average number of people that die of drowning each day for perspective.

If that's an accurate number, then eliminating mask mandates is a no-fucking-brainer.   

[Don Johnson 4,744]

29 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

How many vaccinated people are dying from covid on a daily basis?

 

The current 7 day average deaths is 425 and that has been steadily dropping every day for 2.5 months.  The unvaccinated death rate is reported to be 10 times higher, so I would assume 42 unvaccinated people are dying daily.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

52 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Again, case counts are always going to fluctuate. Hospitalizations are down. Every hospital in DFW including all of the trauma/Covid centers are wide open for business. They have been since January even when the Delta spike was at its worst. This disease is here to stay. You can dig your feet in and do what you want.

Thanks for permission, Dad.

Your anecdotal "evidence" does not align with reported hospitalization data during omicron.  Notably, on January 20, 2022, Texas reported 13,371 hospitalized covid patients, which was just short of Texas' record number of 14,218 hospitalized covid patients on January 11, 2021.

Omicron hospitalizations 2022

 

Actual science, how does it work?

 

 

[Hookah Horns 3,058]

11 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This. There’s plenty of room for debate about whether it is good policy in certain contexts at certain times, what kinds of masks have what effect, etc.
But ultimately, the downside was…..wear a mask that doesn’t hurt you in any way for a period of time. I did it, including on a 20+ hour international travel day. I was glad to take my mask off when the trip was done, but ultimately, it was no big deal. I also really enjoyed getting home and taking my shoes off, but it’s also no big deal to keep them on for the trip.
I generally don’t wear a mask where it’s not required. But where it is, or in a meeting when someone has asked me to, I wear one. I also wore one working out in the yard the other day to filter out the pollen. It’s not a big deal. I don’t yell at people who aren’t wearing one where they should, but I think they’re being petulant children.
That this became such a big social and political issue speaks so fucking poorly of us as a society.

It's scary to imagine the tantrums these babies would throw, and the problems they'd cause, if there was another world war situation where we had to make real personal sacrifices, such as the rationing of goods and fuel. The most annoying thing is these are the same assholes who are the loudest about the pussification of the country, snowflakes and safe spaces, every kid getting a trophy, etc., when they're the softest group around. 

[Sawbonz 27,375]

51 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Thanks for permission, Dad.

Your anecdotal "evidence" does not align with reported hospitalization data during omicron.  Notably, on January 20, 2022, Texas reported 13,371 hospitalized covid patients, which was just short of Texas' record number of 14,218 hospitalized covid patients on January 11, 2021.

Omicron hospitalizations 2022

 

Actual science, how does it work?

 

 

I’m not really sure what hospitalizations in mid to late January have to do with my opinion that mask mandates could have been lifted in early March but OK. None of the hospitals in DFW put elective cases on hold or lacked ICU beds during that time period. That is not anectodal. I get updates from THR/UTSW, Baylor Scott and White, HCA and Methodist systems. Other than JPS and the Dallas VA that encompasses all of the Covid centers in DFW. All were fully open for business from mid January on.  Given that the total cases during omicron were multiples of what we saw previously it is unsurprising hospitalizations were up. They did not overwhelm the critical care capacity which is what is important IMO. 
 

Regardless at this point it is reasonable to be in favor of getting rid of mask mandates. 

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

4 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I’m not really sure what hospitalizations in mid to late January have to do with my opinion that mask mandates could have been lifted in early March but OK.

Well, you said hospitals have been "wide open for business" since January, which seems a little incongruous with the fact that Texas covid hospitalizations peaked in late January at near record numbers, and resources were reportedly strained to a near breaking point.  Beyond that, my message is that disease severity has been at a near high in very recent memory, regardless of what the "LOL covid is over" crowd wants us to believe.

 

Quote

Regardless at this point it is reasonable to be in favor of getting rid of mask mandates. 

I agree regarding discretionary activities -- restaurants, sporting events, most shopping, etc.  I don't see public transportation as wholly discretionary.  Many people simply have to travel to make a living, whether it's mass transit to their daily employer or flights to remote work (sales trips, etc.).  I think it's too early to remove mask mandates for public transportation.

[Sawbonz 27,375]

33 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, you said hospitals have been "wide open for business" since January, which seems a little incongruous with the fact that Texas covid hospitalizations peaked in late January at near record numbers,

It is not incongruous at all see my post above. 
 

As for when it is going to be safe enough to remove mandates for non discretionary activities, in my opinion we reached that point in early March. I haven’t seen any science that would change my mind on that

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

OK, you're just being thick.  Carry on.

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

Clearly, things are different *now*:

[wild_turkey 3,150]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I agree regarding discretionary activities -- restaurants, sporting events, most shopping, etc.  I don't see public transportation as wholly discretionary.  Many people simply have to travel to make a living, whether it's mass transit to their daily employer or flights to remote work (sales trips, etc.).  I think it's too early to remove mask mandates for public transportation.

In your opinion, what would be a reasonable end point for requiring masks on planes? Specifically, what metric would you be looking at to determine when it will be safe for people to fly without a mask mandate? Number of cases? Number of deaths? Hospital or ICU capacity? Something else?

Currently, the 7 day average for Covid deaths in the U.S. is under 500/day. At least 90% of those are unvaccinated, so it's a safe assumption that less than 50 vaccinated people are dying in the U.S. each day. As for the unvaccinated, do you really believe that an airplane mask mandate is going to be the thing that saves them at this stage in the pandemic?

How much lower are you wanting these numbers to be before you would consider making masks optional in airports and on planes?

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

9 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

In your opinion, what would be a reasonable end point for requiring masks on planes? Specifically, what metric would you be looking at to determine when it will be safe for people to fly without a mask mandate? Number of cases? Number of deaths? Hospital or ICU capacity? Something else?

Currently, the 7 day average for Covid deaths in the U.S. is under 500/day. At least 90% of those are unvaccinated, so it's a safe assumption that less than 50 vaccinated people are dying in the U.S. each day. As for the unvaccinated, do you really believe that an airplane mask mandate is going to be the thing that saves them at this stage in the pandemic?

How much lower are you wanting these numbers to be before you would consider making masks optional in airports and on planes?

I'm not sure.  I definitely think 500 deaths per day is way too fucking high to just call off the dogs.  That's almost 200,000 deaths per year.  "Just like the flu", yada yada yada.

We need to maintain perspective.  We need to protect people.  200K deaths per year is not an acceptable tradeoff.  Maybe 30K deaths per year?  Something on the ACTUAL order of an endemic disease like the flu?  Maybe a longer dwell time at low fatality/hospitalization rate than @sawbonz seems irrationally OK with?  Look at the chart I posted -- we are barely past a near-historic peak.  Let's wait a fucking minute.  

We aren't there yet, regardless of how tired we all are of the ongoing problem.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,825]

5 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Go fuck yourself and good luck. 

Anyone else read this in TEX's voice?

Edited April 19, 2022 by Longhorn_Fan68

[wild_turkey 3,150]

I'm not sure.  I definitely think 500 deaths per day is way too fucking high to just call off the dogs.  That's almost 200,000 deaths per year.  "Just like the flu", yada yada yada.
We need to maintain perspective.  We need to protect people.  200K deaths per year is not an acceptable tradeoff.  Maybe 30K deaths per year?  Something on the ACTUAL order of an endemic disease like the flu?  Maybe a longer dwell time at low fatality/hospitalization rate than @sawbonz seems irrationally OK with?  Look at the chart I posted -- we are barely past a near-historic peak.  Let's wait a fucking minute.  
We aren't there yet, regardless of how tired we all are of the ongoing problem.  

Our current 7 day average deaths is 471/day and trending down. Even if it levels off and we assume 471/day for the rest of the year, that’s 172,000 deaths/year.

A soft estimate is that 90% of deaths are unvaccinated. That’s about 155,000 unvaccinated deaths and 17,000 vaccinated deaths.

Are you wanting to continue a mask mandate in airports and planes because you think it will reduce either of those numbers?

Do you honestly believe that masks on planes will significantly reduce the number of unvaccinated people dying of Covid? Like somehow these people have skipped a life saving vaccine and every other precaution we’ve attempted, but if we just force everyone on a plane to continue masking, then it will magically save a large number of them from dying of Covid?

Or are you more concerned about the 17,000 vaccinated people dying, most of whom are fairly old with multiple comorbidities and not even flying in the first place? Are you thinking airplane masks will save people who aren’t even boarding planes?

I’m just confused at what your goal is and what the endpoint is? The mask mandate for planes does not seem like an effective ongoing precaution given what we know about the current Covid victims. It seems like a misplaced priority.

[wild_turkey 3,150]

I'm not sure.  I definitely think 500 deaths per day is way too fucking high to just call off the dogs.  That's almost 200,000 deaths per year.  "Just like the flu", yada yada yada.
We need to maintain perspective.  We need to protect people.  200K deaths per year is not an acceptable tradeoff.  Maybe 30K deaths per year?  Something on the ACTUAL order of an endemic disease like the flu?  Maybe a longer dwell time at low fatality/hospitalization rate than @sawbonz seems irrationally OK with?  Look at the chart I posted -- we are barely past a near-historic peak.  Let's wait a fucking minute.  
We aren't there yet, regardless of how tired we all are of the ongoing problem.  

Our current 7 day average deaths is 471/day and trending down. Even if it levels off and we assume 471/day for the rest of the year, that’s 172,000 deaths/year.

A soft estimate is that 90% of deaths are unvaccinated. That’s about 155,000 unvaccinated deaths and 17,000 vaccinated deaths.

Are you wanting to continue a mask mandate in airports and planes because you think it will reduce either of those numbers?

Do you honestly believe that masks on planes will significantly reduce the number of unvaccinated people dying of Covid? Like somehow these people have skipped a life saving vaccine and every other precaution we’ve attempted, but if we just force everyone on a plane to continue masking, then it will magically save a large number of them from dying of Covid?

Or are you more concerned about the 17,000 vaccinated people dying, most of whom are fairly old with multiple comorbidities and not even flying in the first place? Are you thinking airplane masks will save people who aren’t even boarding planes?

I’m just confused at what your goal is and what the endpoint is? The mask mandate for planes does not seem like an effective ongoing precaution given what we know about the current Covid victims. It seems like a misplaced priority.

[Sawbonz 27,375]

26 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

200K deaths per year is not an acceptable tradeoff. 

I disagree. And it’s not irrational.  Break down deaths as a percentage of new cases. Then break down deaths by vax status. This is the new reality. I get it. You wish it were different. So do  I. All of medicine is risk/reward. Reasonable people can disagree on risk tolerance but it has to be in the calculus of public health policy. If healthy vaccinated individuals start getting really sick or if the critical care system gets stressed we should reassess but for now we are not seeing that. Also whether a disease is endemic has nothing to do with its deadliness. It means it is widely prevalent in a population at baseline

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

1 minute ago, wild_turkey said:

Our current 7 day average deaths is 471/day and trending down. Even if it levels off and we assume 471/day for the rest of the year, that’s 172,000 deaths/year.

And if the trend reverses the number will be higher.  The point is, we don't know what's coming up, and we are in the 5th version of the same verse, yet somehow people seem to think things are now "different".  People have given up.  That is not a rational driver for public policy.  "Hey, the last 4 times this happened we subsequently had a huge spike in mortality, let's just ignore that!" is silly.

I will not draw a line between vaxxed and unvaxxed when it comes to non-discretionary activities.  I just won't.  I don't care that you find it frustrating.  Transit is different than bowling.

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

Also whether a disease is endemic has nothing to do with its deadliness. It means it is widely prevalent in a population at baseline

I never suggested otherwise.

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

Sorry, surly is still borked on submitting posts.  Regarding some of your other points:

Quote

Break down deaths as a percentage of new cases.

Why?  You and I both know case count is highly inaccurate.

 

Quote

If healthy vaccinated individuals start getting really sick or if the critical care system gets stressed we should reassess but for now we are not seeing that.

We literally JUST saw this at the end of January.  Why are you, a health care professional, so determined to dismiss clear data?  

[Sawbonz 27,375]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I never suggested otherwise.

 

33 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Something on the ACTUAL order of an endemic disease like the flu?

Sounded to me like you were contrasting Covid with an endemic virus like the flu. If not, apologies.

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

 

Sounded to me like you were contrasting Covid with an endemic virus like the flu. If not, apologies.

Ah, I get it.  No, I was just trying to point to something we've dealt with for centuries.  I wasn't trying to say mortality defined endemic VS pandemic.  I stated it poorly.

[Sawbonz 27,375]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Sorry, surly is still borked on submitting posts.  Regarding some of your other points:

Why?  You and I both know case count is highly inaccurate.

 

We literally JUST saw this at the end of January.  Why are you, a health care professional, so determined to dismiss clear data?  

Hospitalizations were up. Critical care usage was not overtaxed. Elective cases were not postponed or canceled because of Covid care. I’m not sure why you were having trouble understanding this.

 

and of course case count is inaccurate. It greatly underestimates actual cases. Which actually bodes very well given the number of hospitalizations relative to known cases. The last time CDC did an estimate, they estimated four cases for every one reported case.

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

Just now, Sawbonz said:

Hospitalizations were up. Critical care usage was not overtaxed. Elective cases were not postponed or canceled because of Covid care. I’m not sure why you were having trouble understanding this.

If this is true then there is a difference between X deaths per day (01/22) and X (same X) deaths per day (01/21), because X = X.  Why were critical care resources strained to near breaking a year ago but not in January?  Honest question.  Media reports seem to contradict your assertion.

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

and of course case count is inaccurate. It greatly underestimates actual cases. Which actually bodes very well given the number of hospitalizations relative to known cases. The last time CDC did an estimate, they estimated four cases for every one reported case.

Dammit, surly.

I would assert that hospitalization rate (normalized to actual cases) is irrelevant.  Just because we (for instance) hospitalize 1,000 patients per 100,000 cases now as opposed to 1,000 patients per 10,000 cases then doesn't mean the 1,000 people involved are any different, if case count is indeed 10X higher.  The numerator is what matters, not the denominator or the ratio (I believe the ratio is "virulence"?  not sure).

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,074]

So Broadway is doing the opposite of what I think they should do.  They are doing away with proof of vaccination, but keeping masks.  I wish they would keep requiring the proof of vaccination and booster (because fuck you if you do not have a medical reason to not get vaccinated) and do away with the masks.  

I think it would make a whole lot of fucking sense if the airlines required you to be vaccinated to fly and then did away with the mandate.  If everyone on the flight is vaccinated, the risk is incredibly low.

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,825]

2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So Broadway is doing the opposite of what I think they should do.  They are doing away with proof of vaccination, but keeping masks.  I wish they would keep requiring the proof of vaccination and booster (because fuck you if you do not have a medical reason to not get vaccinated) and do away with the masks.  

I think it would make a whole lot of fucking sense if the airlines required you to be vaccinated to fly and then did away with the mandate.  If everyone on the flight is vaccinated, the risk is incredibly low.

 

that sounds like some pinko commie talk, drugarica 

Edited April 19, 2022 by Longhorn_Fan68

[Sawbonz 27,375]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Dammit, surly.

I would assert that hospitalization rate (normalized to actual cases) is irrelevant.  Just because we (for instance) hospitalize 1,000 patients per 100,000 cases now as opposed to 1,000 patients per 10,000 cases then doesn't mean the 1,000 people involved are any different, if case count is indeed 10X higher.  The numerator is what matters, not the denominator or the ratio (I believe the ratio is "virulence"?  not sure).

For public health policy and epidemiology purposes, the denominator is what is important in determining risk and designing protocols. I don’t know anybody in  medicine or Public Health who would disagree with that statement. The numerator is important to those people and their families, and becomes important if it is high enough to stress the system. 

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

Just now, Sawbonz said:

For public health policy and epidemiology purposes, the denominator is what is important in determining risk and designing protocols. I don’t know anybody in  medicine or Public Health who would disagree with that statement. The numerator is important to those people and their families, and becomes important if it is high enough to stress the system. 

That's exactly my point.  Our last wave stressed the system almost as bad as the worst previous wave.

I don't really understand why it matters if a more contagious but less deadly variant leads to the same mortality rate per 100K Americans.  In the end, the same # of people are dying.

That said, I think we're at a standoff here, and I don't really have it in me to continue (plus, conference call).  Thanks for your perspective, I will reconsider my view and perhaps pepper you with questions later.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

So Broadway is doing the opposite of what I think they should do.  They are doing away with proof of vaccination, but keeping masks.  I wish they would keep requiring the proof of vaccination and booster (because fuck you if you do not have a medical reason to not get vaccinated) and do away with the masks.  
I think it would make a whole lot of fucking sense if the airlines required you to be vaccinated to fly and then did away with the mandate.  If everyone on the flight is vaccinated, the risk is incredibly low.
 

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/20/texas-democrats-washington-coronavirus/amp/

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

So Broadway is doing the opposite of what I think they should do.  They are doing away with proof of vaccination, but keeping masks.  I wish they would keep requiring the proof of vaccination and booster (because fuck you if you do not have a medical reason to not get vaccinated) and do away with the masks.  
I think it would make a whole lot of fucking sense if the airlines required you to be vaccinated to fly and then did away with the mandate.  If everyone on the flight is vaccinated, the risk is incredibly low.
 

Borked double post

[Skipper 6,088]

13 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I think it would make a whole lot of fucking sense if the airlines required you to be vaccinated to fly and then did away with the mandate.  If everyone on the flight is vaccinated, the risk is incredibly low.

 

What risk is low exactly?  It's more than established Omicron easily evades the existing vaccine.   I don't think there is any meaningful difference in transmission risk if you are sitting next to a vaxed or unvaxed person on the plane.  I mean maybe if they had a booster in the last few weeks but not enough to build a policy around.  Your odds would probably improve dramatically if the person next to you previously had Omicron, but again, impossible to build a policy around.

Which goes to the other point. JJ keeps harping and harping about "January" and how it wasn't that long ago, etc. etc.  Do you know what is different between now and January?  Well, between early December through early February literally half the fucking US population was "vaccinated or boosted" via an Omicron infection.  That's a massive fucking difference.    Unless/until there is a variant that (i) better evades vax immunity and (ii) evades Omicron immunity, then the hospitals are not at risk of a collapse.  Period.

If that new variant comes along then it's fine to re-evaluate everything including masks on planes.    But we are in completely new territory than we have been simply because the mass natural antibodies floating around the US population.  It's why most of us have been arguing since February that this window that we are in now WAS coming and it's time to start ratcheting down.   There were people on here in February that refused to concede deaths would be dramatically lower in April.  Well, here we are.  

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,074]

5 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/20/texas-democrats-washington-coronavirus/amp/

So are you saying you support masks on planes, because that seems to be what you are saying since those Democrats were all vaxxed but didn't have masks on the plane.  If I remember, none of them were seriously sick (very mild cases), so it seems to me that if everyone is vaxxed and you do not wear a mask, yeah your risk of getting it goes up, but it won't be serious and you won't be taking up scarce resources. Again, it all comes down to, the fully vaxxed should be back to normal and the anti-vaxxers should be fucking booted from polite society.

 

[Skipper 6,088]

I'll add this.  All of the masking and distancing we've done the past 2 years is a double edged sword.  My household has had someone sick with a cold or stomach bug (or Omicron, who knows) every single week for the past 6 weeks and a bunch in the fall as well.   Clearly almost all of it brought home from kids pre-k.  So after going basically all of 2020 and most of last year with very little illness, our kids immune system is paying the price (as is ours).  Not really debating it was all necessary at the time.  But I sure as hell don't think a coincidence talking to other families.  And annoying as hell now.

[pearlandhorn 3,277]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not sure.  I definitely think 500 deaths per day is way too fucking high to just call off the dogs.  That's almost 200,000 deaths per year.  "Just like the flu", yada yada yada.

We need to maintain perspective.  We need to protect people.  200K deaths per year is not an acceptable tradeoff.  Maybe 30K deaths per year?  Something on the ACTUAL order of an endemic disease like the flu?  Maybe a longer dwell time at low fatality/hospitalization rate than @sawbonz seems irrationally OK with?  Look at the chart I posted -- we are barely past a near-historic peak.  Let's wait a fucking minute.  

We aren't there yet, regardless of how tired we all are of the ongoing problem.  

Aren't the vaccines supposed to do that?  Seems like the people who want protecting have been vaccinated and the people who don't want to be protected either 1) don't want to get vaccinated or 2) want people to leave them the hell alone.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,074]

5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

What risk is low exactly?  It's more than established Omicron easily evades the existing vaccine.   I don't think there is any meaningful difference in transmission risk if you are sitting next to a vaxed or unvaxed person on the plane.  I mean maybe if they had a booster in the last few weeks but not enough to build a policy around.  Your odds would probably improve dramatically if the person next to you previously had Omicron, but again, impossible to build a policy around.

Which goes to the other point. JJ keeps harping and harping about "January" and how it wasn't that long ago, etc. etc.  Do you know what is different between now and January?  Well, between early December through early February literally half the fucking US population was "vaccinated or boosted" via an Omicron infection.  That's a massive fucking difference.    Unless/until there is a variant that (i) better evades vax immunity and (ii) evades Omicron immunity, then the hospitals are not at risk of a collapse.  Period.

If that new variant comes along then it's fine to re-evaluate everything including masks on planes.    But we are in completely new territory than we have been simply because the mass natural antibodies floating around the US population.  It's why most of us have been arguing since February that this window that we are in now WAS coming and it's time to start ratcheting down.   There were people on here in February that refused to concede deaths would be dramatically lower in April.  Well, here we are.  

The risk of people having a serious outcome.  Yes, you might get "COVID," but if you had a cold, would you isolate yourself?  NO.  And for a lot of the vaxxed and boosted, their breakthrough cases of COVID were just that, like a cold.  

I also am looking at trends from Europe.  We are about 2 weeks behind them.  We will see growths in cases.  We will even see some growth in hospitalization, but we should see the reverse shortly if the trends from Europe hold.

I still think antivaxxers are idiots and they have no place in society.  Sorry, but fuck them.

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,074]

3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'll add this.  All of the masking and distancing we've done the past 2 years is a double edged sword.  My household has had someone sick with a cold or stomach bug (or Omicron, who knows) every single week for the past 6 weeks and a bunch in the fall as well.   Clearly almost all of it brought home from kids pre-k.  So after going basically all of 2020 and most of last year with very little illness, our kids immune system is paying the price (as is ours).  Not really debating it was all necessary at the time.  But I sure as hell don't think a coincidence talking to other families.  And annoying as hell now.

Agree with this.  When NYC lifted the indoor mask mandate last summer, I immediately got hit with a stomach bug.  It had been years since I had had a stomach bug.  I have had two in the last 9 months and neither was COVID.  It was miserable.