CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[Tuco 5076]

9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

a flu strain would be a great way to tame down protesters 

1. This isn't a flu.  It's closer to a cold. 

2. This would be a horrible way to tame down protesters.  It has a long incubation period (making timing difficult), is extremely contagious (making targeting difficult), and disproportionately affects the old and sick, who don't generally show up to protests.  It sounds like it is not a particular rough cold, should it stay in the upper respiratory, which is probably why it is spreading so easily - people don't stay home with it.  If we had a lot of old folks home revolting, this would be a good countermeasure.  But for the Hong Kong protests, it's more likely to cause general disruption and dissatisfaction with the government, which actually helps the protesters. 

[Brisketexan 104469]

1 minute ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Some of you may not be a supporter, but she had this covered. When SHTF I want someone who can move quickly and capably. And I want someone who doesn't immediately think old, white and male = expert. Women need not apply. The nation keeps writing her off, telling her to quit, why bother cause you can't win, but an intelligent capable human being who happens to be a woman is still in this race and I will not apologize for voting for her.

 

She has had a plan for awhile now.

 

Link to the plan is here:https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/combating-infectious-disease-outbreaks

Well, let's see why we're fucked:

The majority of Americans can't stay home from work because they won't get paid (either immediately, or because they have very limited sick leave).  So, sick people will go to work.

If you have symptoms, then the right thing to do may be to show up and get tested....but under our system, that's not a public health action.  That's just your private medical care, which you have to pay for (even with insurance, see high-deductible plans etc.).  So, why would you incur a huge expense to protect other people?

If you are seriously ill, you'll put off expensive medical care because it's expensive.  And by the time you realize you really need care, it's too late, and you die.

Our system is set up to fucking fail, and badly, in a communicable disease public health crisis.

And as for economics, global projections right now are that if this pandemic is handled WELL, and is brought under control quickly, it will take the global growth rate down from 3% to 2.5%.  And if it's handled about like we think it will be (poorly), then that drop will be from 3% to 1.5%.

We don't really know what the death rate is, so I'm not speaking to how bad it is as a disease.  I'm just talking about the effects that we know about -- how we will react, and how the economy will react.  Not great.

[Pig Bellmont 8679]

Cases in NY and TX, a death in Washington state- I’m convinced we are all getting exposed to this thing, and hopefully family and friends won’t fall into that 2% that die

[jimmyjazz 45514]

10 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Nobody with an IQ above retard level will buy it.

So, approximately 38% of the country.

[Biff Tannen 45482]

10 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Some of you may not be a supporter, but she had this covered. When SHTF I want someone who can move quickly and capably. And I want someone who doesn't immediately think old, white and male = expert. Women need not apply. The nation keeps writing her off, telling her to quit, why bother cause you can't win, but an intelligent capable human being who happens to be a woman is still in this race and I will not apologize for voting for her.

 

She has had a plan for awhile now.

 

Link to the plan is here:https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/combating-infectious-disease-outbreaks

I love how "very productive" according to Pence is "we decided people shouldn't go to these places and we shouldn't let them come here".  Good job morons.  Must have been exhausting.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, let's see why we're fucked:

The majority of Americans can't stay home from work because they won't get paid (either immediately, or because they have very limited sick leave).  So, sick people will go to work.

If you have symptoms, then the right thing to do may be to show up and get tested....but under our system, that's not a public health action.  That's just your private medical care, which you have to pay for (even with insurance, see high-deductible plans etc.).  So, why would you incur a huge expense to protect other people?

If you are seriously ill, you'll put off expensive medical care because it's expensive.  And by the time you realize you really need care, it's too late, and you die.

Our system is set up to fucking fail, and badly, in a communicable disease public health crisis.

And as for economics, global projections right now are that if this pandemic is handled WELL, and is brought under control quickly, it will take the global growth rate down from 3% to 2.5%.  And if it's handled about like we think it will be (poorly), then that drop will be from 3% to 1.5%.

We don't really know what the death rate is, so I'm not speaking to how bad it is as a disease.  I'm just talking about the effects that we know about -- how we will react, and how the economy will react.  Not great.

That's addressed (in short form) in the video and long form in the plan. So, yeah, we don't deserve her. She is both a sentient and compassionate human running for office. Oh well.

[Brisketexan 104469]

5 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Cases in NY and TX, a death in Washington state- I’m convinced we are all getting exposed to this thing, and hopefully family and friends won’t fall into that 2% that die

I've said it elsewhere, but I suspect that "2% of people who get this die" number is WAY high.  I suspect that a large number of cases aren't diagnosed at all because the person is asymptomatic or has such mild symptoms that they never end up being tested etc.  Really, any such number is at most "2% of KNOWN CASES," which is likely to be a materially smaller pool than total cases.  This still may have a death rate that's significantly higher than the flu (which is .1%), but "significantly higher could still  just be ..3% or something like that.  We won't know for a while, because the data sets suck. 

[4th&Five 41457]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I've said it elsewhere, but I suspect that "2% of people who get this die" number is WAY high.  I suspect that a large number of cases aren't diagnosed at all because the person is asymptomatic or has such mild symptoms that they never end up being tested etc.  Really, any such number is at most "2% of KNOWN CASES," which is likely to be a materially smaller pool than total cases.  This still may have a death rate that's significantly higher than the flu (which is .1%), but "significantly higher could still  just be ..3% or something like that.  We won't know for a while, because the data sets suck. 

I really wish people understood this. 

[Dahobbs 17420]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I've said it elsewhere, but I suspect that "2% of people who get this die" number is WAY high.  I suspect that a large number of cases aren't diagnosed at all because the person is asymptomatic or has such mild symptoms that they never end up being tested etc.  Really, any such number is at most "2% of KNOWN CASES," which is likely to be a materially smaller pool than total cases.  This still may have a death rate that's significantly higher than the flu (which is .1%), but "significantly higher could still  just be ..3% or something like that.  We won't know for a while, because the data sets suck. 

I think you are right on the mortality rate, but the thing that makes this bad is more about (1) how easily is spreads, and (2) that a significant number of people have to be hospitalized with it. 10-20% of reported cases fall in this serious zone, which is why the real concern is the strain it will have on the public health system. Even if the real number is say 2% of cases requiring hospitalization, it is potentially two million additional hospitalizations in the US alone based on projected spread. That is 2x to 10x what we see from the flu every year.  

[TXSG8R 3356]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I've said it elsewhere, but I suspect that "2% of people who get this die" number is WAY high.  I suspect that a large number of cases aren't diagnosed at all because the person is asymptomatic or has such mild symptoms that they never end up being tested etc.  Really, any such number is at most "2% of KNOWN CASES," which is likely to be a materially smaller pool than total cases.  This still may have a death rate that's significantly higher than the flu (which is .1%), but "significantly higher could still  just be ..3% or something like that.  We won't know for a while, because the data sets suck. 

The death rate is going to be tied to the medical capacity available.  I haven't seen anything showing that the US is surging any kind of response to what is coming.  Instead of learning from China and being proactive, we are being just as reactive, which means people will die unnecessarily before we can stand up additional capacity.  

[tx 3 putt 76171]

So we’re all going to turn into zombies if we go untreated ?

[horn4life 3753]

We have the best healthcare system in the world.  For those fully insured.  If I am uninsured and I catch this, I think I simply go visit all the GOP campaign offices I can and ask healthcare questions. 

What is fucking criminal is that the CDC released a quarantined person that now test positive for the virus in San Antonio.  The response thus far from the CDC has been pathetically slow. Protocols to allow states to test should have been in place weeks ago. Everything that Mike Pence is doing this week should have been done weeks ago.  So yes the federal response has been shit.  No matter the spin coming from the Naked Emperor. 

What was nice to see today was how a person in Government with some degree of mental capacity can give a press conference on the virus. Governor Cuomo gave a great accounting of what is happening in New York and their plans on moving forward.  More importantly he used FACTS (something rarely embraced by Republicans anymore)! He simply states that for most of us the virus isn't a real threat and that 80% recover via self treatment.  The other 20% who get really sick generally have some other compromising health issues, and ultimately even if you use the Chinese numbers the disease is only twice as deadly as the flu.  ALSO those fatality percentages will likely be much less in the US with our much superior healthcare compared to China.

Just calmly laying out the facts. Biggest help is the CDC finally letting the states help themselves.  How the fuck they didn't figure that out a couple weeks ago can only mean one thing.  Fox and Friends didn't mention the idea, so the President would know about it?

 

[Goredho 17307]

41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, let's see why we're fucked:

The majority of Americans can't stay home from work because they won't get paid (either immediately, or because they have very limited sick leave).  So, sick people will go to work.

If you have symptoms, then the right thing to do may be to show up and get tested....but under our system, that's not a public health action.  That's just your private medical care, which you have to pay for (even with insurance, see high-deductible plans etc.).  So, why would you incur a huge expense to protect other people?

If you are seriously ill, you'll put off expensive medical care because it's expensive.  And by the time you realize you really need care, it's too late, and you die.

Our system is set up to fucking fail, and badly, in a communicable disease public health crisis.

And as for economics, global projections right now are that if this pandemic is handled WELL, and is brought under control quickly, it will take the global growth rate down from 3% to 2.5%.  And if it's handled about like we think it will be (poorly), then that drop will be from 3% to 1.5%.

We don't really know what the death rate is, so I'm not speaking to how bad it is as a disease.  I'm just talking about the effects that we know about -- how we will react, and how the economy will react.  Not great.

1.  The GOP believes tax breaks for the very wealthy and corporations are more important than public health.  Their budgets the past few years show exactly how much they prioritize public health. That strategic mismanagement is why we are slow to respond to this, and they are already trying to pin that on the Democrats.  I hope people are smart enough to connect the dots and hold our current leadership's feet to the fire, but you already see a lot of local criticism being thrown at the CDC for the NoCal case and the SA case without anyone mentioning that that the CDC has been forced to operate on a shoe-string budget.  Its the same misdirection loop as being used with regards to public education -- defund the system, watch the system decay, amplify the noise about how ineffectual the system is, use that as justification for further defunding, literally profit.

2.  Goddamit, jump into politics and run for some office already.  For the love of God.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Goredho

[tx 3 putt 76171]

It’ll be curious to see Death rates from Italy and South Korea because we all know China is lying 

[StruggleBus 3922]

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

It’ll be curious to see Death rates from Italy and South Korea because we all know China is lying 

The death rate will be artificially high until mild cases start being tested. Which won't be any time soon, if ever. 

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Gap03 3248]

Quote

Trump also said it is “very safe” to hold campaign rallies amid coronavirus outbreak.

The best thing he can do for this country right here.  Hopefully, he invites Sean Hannity and the rest of the Fox News night-time line-up to his rallies as well.

[alincoln 2364]

The response of our government to this has been about effective as Iran's.  

Trump will be held accountable by the electorate when everyone's grandmother dies in the next six months.  

Bernie better choose an electable VP because he has a significant chance of dying if he catches this.  

 

[triplehorn 2664]

Quote

Trump also said it is “very safe” to hold campaign rallies amid coronavirus outbreak.

fair opportunity for a participant pay raise.  in advance, of course.

[High Plains Drifter 10970]

47 minutes ago, horn4life said:

We have the best healthcare system in the world.  For those fully insured.  If I am uninsured and I catch this, I think I simply go visit all the GOP campaign offices I can and ask healthcare questions. 

 

 

 

Fucking lulz.

 

If I get it, I'm going to be the "Corona Drifter" and attend as many Magat rallies as I can get to. Being white, old, and bald, I'll fit right in.

 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

1 minute ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Fucking lulz.

 

If I get it, I'm going to be the "Corona Drifter" and attend as many Magat rallies as I can get to. Being white, old, and bald, I'll fit right in.

 

Could also visit the offices of Ted Cruz, Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, and complain about the response by this administration in person.

[Horn Dog 9647]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I've said it elsewhere, but I suspect that "2% of people who get this die" number is WAY high.  I suspect that a large number of cases aren't diagnosed at all because the person is asymptomatic or has such mild symptoms that they never end up being tested etc.  Really, any such number is at most "2% of KNOWN CASES," which is likely to be a materially smaller pool than total cases.  This still may have a death rate that's significantly higher than the flu (which is .1%), but "significantly higher could still  just be ..3% or something like that.  We won't know for a while, because the data sets suck. 

Agree.  I am just getting over a “cold” that i caught from my son which i am 80% convinced is the covid19.   Very mild but I stayed home over the weekend and now feel 90% better.  Will never know I guess cause I never felt bad enough to blow through $1500 of my deductible. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

 

 

On 3/1/2020 at 11:09 AM, DixonHur said:

They just announced the first 3 confirmed cases here in the Czech Republic.  2 in Prague (one of whom is a 20 year old American girl) and 1 in a smaller city near the German border (or boarder for the Trumpers).

All three contracted it in Italy.  

Game on.

Pics?

C'mon people, even if we are all about to die doesn't mean we just get to forget about standards around here. 

[Biff Tannen 45482]

Hey, I was sick once too!  

Is that what we're doing in this thread now?

[jimmyjazz 45514]

15 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Agree.  I am just getting over a “cold” that i caught from my son which i am 80% convinced is the covid19.

What makes you think this?

[Brisketexan 104469]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

What makes you think this?

School field trip to Wuhan.  Duh.

[Aqua Buddha 14493]

1 hour ago, TXSG8R said:

The death rate is going to be tied to the medical capacity available.  I haven't seen anything showing that the US is surging any kind of response to what is coming.  Instead of learning from China and being proactive, we are being just as reactive, which means people will die unnecessarily before we can stand up additional capacity.  

There is a significant deficit in rural health care in America and if this hits the old in the small towns you'll see a major catastrophe.  

[Brisketexan 104469]

Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

There is a significant deficit in rural health care in America and if this hits the old in the small towns you'll see a major catastrophe.  

Also....that exact same demographic will find a way to blame it all on Obama/Hillary/Soros.

[Aqua Buddha 14493]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Also....that exact same demographic will find a way to blame it all on Obama/Hillary/Soros.

A politician with balls would hold a press conference in front of a shuttered rural hospital in a red state.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20342]

24 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Hey, I was sick once too!  

Is that what we're doing in this thread now?

I have what my girlfriend called a hangnail but which I suspect is actually Coronavirus.

[tx 3 putt 76171]

1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

The best thing he can do for this country right here.  Hopefully, he invites Sean Hannity and the rest of the Fox News night-time line-up to his rallies as well.

Someone start a go fund me to help the infected attend trump rallies ??

[Captainant 27331]

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Someone start a go fund me to help the infected attend trump rallies ??

some might just call a trump rally getting infected because they're gathering during extremely high risk periods of time "natural selection"

[Guest Lobo]

One republican or independent voter loses an elderly relative to CoronaVirus.  They publicly take the few thousand dollars left to them intestate by that relative and donate it to the Democratic candidate in the general election versus Trump.  With the message, “I was a Trump supporter/was independent, until his poor leadership cost me my father/grandfather/wife...they would want to me to donate this money to Biden/Bernie/Bloomberg so nobody else has to suffer like they did in their last days.”

One modest campaign donation from the estate of a coronavirus Victim that flows through anyone but an ardent  democrat (so Trump supporters cannot claim a hoax).  Let it trend and spread organically and it would turn the tide of this entire election.  
 

argue you all you want about M4A and cuts to public health and rural hospitals.  Put a face on this virus mismanagement and have that token amount of cash oppose Trump as sort of a “last wish” and he loses Florida and Michigan.  It’s the perfect Play from the Trump playbook.  

[Ths71 472]

I have what my girlfriend called a hangnail but which I suspect is actually Coronavirus.

Makes me mad when they think they know everything!

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Junior Miller 1502]

If this thing takes out a significant amount of the over 70 crowd trump is fucked. 

So hilariously crazy how old and poor white people are so big in the republican/trump camp yet old and poor of all races get fucked over by them the most. 

[Captainant 27331]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/02/cdc-postpones-coronavirus-briefing-118815

Interesting that CDC is pushing back scheduled pressers without any warning or explanations, immediately after a new round of fatalities is announced. Must be stuck going through "dear leader" review or something.

[Horn Dog 9647]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

What makes you think this?

He recently returned from Europe which included stops in Italy in Germany.  I guess I shouldn’t have said  “80% convinced” which is an exaggeration and attributable to paranoia on my part.  The point I was making was that I agree that we have no idea what the prevalence on this virus is right now in the US cause a lot are mild or asymptotic cases and those will not be documented.

[Dutchrudder 11104]

6 dead in Washington state, several states now reporting new cases, including New York, Florida, New Hampshire and more. This is not going to end soon, and will end up killing a bunch of old people unnecessarily. What an absolute failure by this administration and the CDC to contain this virus. I'm gonna stock up on some non-perishables today, because I don't want to miss out on good stuff once the panic hits Houston. This city may get shut down at some point, but at least I'll have chili and peanut butter. 

[Thrawn 538]

Fuck, I have a chest/head cold, shortness of breath on a short walk this morning, and just in general feel like shit right now. Plus I live in the same county as one of the people who was just diagnosed and hospitalized with Covid19.  Even with all of that, I’m roughly 99% positive I don’t have it.

[Captainant 27331]

On 2/27/2020 at 10:24 AM, zork said:

For reference the first thread on Surly was started on Jan 22nd.  36 days in since then and how many deaths in the USA are to be attributed to Covid-19?  It seems like that number is zero, right?

How many deaths do you predict will be attributed to Covid-19 in another 24(incubation period is up to that after it was thought to be 14 days IIRC) days from today in the USA?  

I have no idea as I can only understand what has happened from what is reported in the news and opinion places like this. 

I will say I am gruntled so far by the actual reported results in the USA at this point.  Are there any mass hysteria videos on twitter from hospitals, or mini hysteria videos even, originating in the USA for USA cases?  I haven't heard/seen of any at this snapshot in time.  We should be seeing them soon, right?

Are people who had it from the other countries who were brought back to the USA dying yet? 

USA, USA, USA medicine!  Hopefully strong palliative care from early recognition, etc, reduces the impact here. 

Dallas county  pandemic/flu dude interviewed on DFW radio yesterday says they are monitoring and ready to act here locally if it shows up here.  He mentioned strong flu reduction/reaction techniques reportedly will work well for the  Covid-19 and they are ready as they can be.  

Deaths are ticking up, doesn't look so great or cause to be gruntled. CDC is dropping the ball all over the place on testing and containing. I admire your blind optimism for a man who couldn't keep a fucking casino operating, and who has killed damn near every business that actually sells something of value besides his brand.

Don't mean to shit all over your take, but cmon man. You really thought we were in good hands on this?

[Pasken 1309]

41 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

6 dead in Washington state, several states now reporting new cases, including New York, Florida, New Hampshire and more. This is not going to end soon, and will end up killing a bunch of old people unnecessarily. What an absolute failure by this administration and the CDC to contain this virus. I'm gonna stock up on some non-perishables today, because I don't want to miss out on good stuff once the panic hits Houston. This city may get shut down at some point, but at least I'll have chili and peanut butter. 

In related news, Delta is adding an additional daily AUS-SEA flight. So...that's news.

[TexEx15 17453]

 

[Brisketexan 104469]

40 minutes ago, Thrawn said:

Fuck, I have a chest/head cold, shortness of breath on a short walk this morning, and just in general feel like shit right now. Plus I live in the same county as one of the people who was just diagnosed and hospitalized with Covid19.  Even with all of that, I’m roughly 99% positive I don’t have it.

So, interesting question -- who is going to be the first Surly poster who is a CONFIRMED Covid19 case?

We oughta have a pool.  Dollar a guess or something.

And, I mean, I'm totally picking Ray Dog.

[Bigpoppapump 529]

It's impossible for me not to touch my face subconsciously, so I'm just assuming I already have it.

[TexLonghorn 5587]

And O M Gosh, you guys, it worked:  Look how the official CDC website numbers look now!  No deaths, and no more of that pesky (and growing) 472 number!  Now none of the numbers are above 43!  Pandemic over!

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

48 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Deaths are ticking up, doesn't look so great or cause to be gruntled. CDC is dropping the ball all over the place on testing and containing. I admire your blind optimism for a man who couldn't keep a fucking casino operating, and who has killed damn near every business that actually sells something of value besides his brand.

Don't mean to shit all over your take, but cmon man. You really thought we were in good hands on this?

Looked at some conservative websites that are laying most of the blame for the press conference cancellations/delays and all things Coronavirus on the CDC.

Of course, throw the CDC under the bus after over ruling their decision regarding the ship passengers, and reducing their global observation networks, and their outreach to state and county health departments. Throw the CDC under the bus for the press conference issues after the WH specifically said "all comms must be approved by us." Blame the CDC for changing numbers and graphics on their website when altering data is a feature not a bug of this Administration. The CDC would have already released statements on a regular basis from January on if it wasn't for the WH. It's what they do. I actually find the removal of data and news releases from their site troubling. The document shredding that has occurred over the last year has increased and institutional memory being erased.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

8 minutes ago, TexLonghorn said:

And O M Gosh, you guys, it worked:  Look how the official CDC website numbers look now!  No deaths, and no more of that pesky (and growing) 472 number!  Now none of the numbers are above 43!  Pandemic over!

God that is terrifying and fuckig disturbing. 

[4th&Five 41457]

It's just another thing we won't lead in.  We'll have to wait for another country to figure it out and tell us what to do.  

[Goredho 17307]

29 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

There is going to be every attempt to make a summer waning appear to be a Trump stable genius victory over Coronavirus that only he could engineer.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 minute ago, Goredho said:

There is going to be every attempt to make a summer waning appear to be a Trump stable genius victory over Coronavirus that only he could engineer.

Fox has a plan for that I'm sure, but Honeyvirus gonna do what it's going to do and that means it may burn itself out by killing to many people or it may mutate and stick around.