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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31268

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I laughed out loud at this part of that time article.

So the story that had gone viral simply wasn’t true: the teenager did not go to an urgent care clinic and he wasn’t uninsured. But one reason the story exploded on social media is that it felt emblematic of a broader, societal failing because it easily could have been true.

So very Trump, even if from the other end of the spectrum.

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I'd just like to point out that neither myself nor any of my fellow nurses, fellow advanced nurse practitioners, and other healthcare providers ever swore an oath that we would lay down our lives for

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Welp, it finally happened. I snapped in public today. I went into work for a bit this morning because I’m trying to figure out the safest way to host physicians we are recruiting given our CV-19 sit

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I don't really know what to say anymore tbh. What happened last night is hard to put into words for anyone who hasn't worked in a hospital healthcare setting. Just unreal. Everyone is getting fucked.

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Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13546

Posted
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47 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

P.S. You'll note that there are almost no dates in that video. I can't imagine why that would be (oh yeah, it would give context). 

The first clip stating the risk to NY is low is dated Feb. 2, almost a full month before Trump was claiming the rising level of concern was a Democratic hoax on Feb 28.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Trump will never get credit from the TDS deranged lunatics on this board.  But the majority of Americans will consider it a huge win if the current model projection of 60,000 deaths comes to fruition.

Credit for what? Local leaders filling in the gap left by his lack of leadership?

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Pancho

Pancho 44466

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

If Trump comes out and drives hysteria in the US during the impeachment process, he'd get castrated for trying to create an event to avoid impeachment -- especially when at the time WHO was saying there was no person to person transmission.  Fauci and the CDC were telling everyone in late February the risk to Americans was low.  Isn't Adam Schiff chair of the intelligence oversight committee with access to intelligence?  Maybe had he spent time on the intelligence role instead of an impeachment that did not even allege a crime and had zero chance of removing the president, things would have been different.

If we get out of this with 60,000 deaths as is now modeled, that is a huge win for the country.  And there will be a lot of credit going around to federal, state and local governments.

Stop.

 

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted (edited)

Black Swan events as we know them consist of the three components. I see the third component a lot on this board:

1) Impossible to predict

2) Wide-reaching and wide impact of consequences

3) People will try to justify we could prevent, with a fallacy known as hindsight bias.

 

One of the things about a Black Swan event that hasn't been touched on is the hindsight bias that gets applied to it. If you don't like Trump it's going to be easy to go back and say, "well, if we had those people he didn't lay off, Covid-19 wouldn't have happened/would have been lessened/etc."

It feels good emotionally to lash out at the leader, and the GOP idiots would be spit roasting a Dem if a Dem were President, but equally wouldn't make a significant difference.

It's like the M&M Prop 1 of capital structure but for politics; doesn't matter the leverage, it's all the same.

Edited by Rougarou
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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2 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Black Swan events as we know them consist of the three components. I see the third component a lot on this board:

1) Impossible to predict

2) Wide-reaching and wide impact of consequences

3) People will try to justify we could prevent, with a fallacy known as hindsight bias.

 

One of the things about a Black Swan event that hasn't been touched on is the hindsight bias that gets applied to it. If you don't like Trump it's going to be easy to go back and say, "well, if we had those people he didn't lay off, Covid-19 wouldn't have happened/would have been lessened/etc."

This thing was predicted. There was amply fucking notice. China fucking quarantined an area of 75 million to handle it. What the fuck are you talking about? People on this board were discussing it and things we needed to do in fucking January. Random people on an internet message board dedicated to a college football team predicted it. Seriously, what a fucking dumb narrative. 

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Gap03

Gap03 3284

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rougarou said:

Black Swan events as we know them consist of the three components. I see the third component a lot on this board:

1) Impossible to predict

2) Wide-reaching and wide impact of consequences

3) People will try to justify we could prevent, with a fallacy known as hindsight bias.

 

One of the things about a Black Swan event that hasn't been touched on is the hindsight bias that gets applied to it. If you don't like Trump it's going to be easy to go back and say, "well, if we had those people he didn't lay off, Covid-19 wouldn't have happened/would have been lessened/etc."

The ability to prevent the absolute clusterfuck that has arisen here in the U.S. isn't just some hypothetical - other countries were absolutely able to get their shit together and minimize both the number of deaths and the impacts on their economies.  See South Korea.  Were they uniquely attuned to the risk given their history with SARS, etc?  Sure.  But there is absolutely no reason why it had to be this bad in the U.S., but for the imbecile in the White House and his persistent need to dismantle everything of value that Obama had put in place.  

Short version - STFU with this nonsense.

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

Posted
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36 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I laughed out loud at this part of that time article.

So the story that had gone viral simply wasn’t true: the teenager did not go to an urgent care clinic and he wasn’t uninsured. But one reason the story exploded on social media is that it felt emblematic of a broader, societal failing because it easily could have been true.

In which Time acts just like your Uncle Freddy after he is cold-busted posting fake news / quotes on Facebook. "Well, yeah, but it sounds like something he could have said."

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Ted Lange

Ted Lange 16041

Posted
Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

60,000 deaths is not a huge win for the country, no matter who or what spins it. That is garbage.

So how many people do you think are gonna die from this?   I think it’s over that number, well over.  If offered 60k right now I’d be hard press to say, nah, let’s take our chances. 
 

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

How could anyone defend Trump right now? 

 

I was told our intelligence community was always incorrect regarding foreign interference.  Unless of course we can use them to blame other nations for the Covid-19 virus.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29234

Posted
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1 minute ago, Ted Lange said:

So how many people do you think are gonna die from this?   I think it’s over that number, well over.  If offered 60k right now I’d be hard press to say, nah, let’s take our chances. 
 

 

Over what time span? We're almost certainly going to try to go back to normal too early and have a second breakout, and that's not even taking into consideration the potential for yet another breakout in the fall.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18655

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ted Lange said:

So how many people do you think are gonna die from this?   I think it’s over that number, well over.  If offered 60k right now I’d be hard press to say, nah, let’s take our chances. 

I don't think we'll ever know. The official number is always going to be low because the response was botched and the administration dithered for two months.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29234

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8 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I don't think we'll ever know. The official number is always going to be low because the response was botched and the administration dithered for two months.

It'll be pretty easy to look at the excess deaths that aren't included within the official count.

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Nivek

Nivek 16856

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3 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Black Swan events as we know them consist of the three components. I see the third component a lot on this board:

1) Impossible to predict

2) Wide-reaching and wide impact of consequences

3) People will try to justify we could prevent, with a fallacy known as hindsight bias.

 

One of the things about a Black Swan event that hasn't been touched on is the hindsight bias that gets applied to it. If you don't like Trump it's going to be easy to go back and say, "well, if we had those people he didn't lay off, Covid-19 wouldn't have happened/would have been lessened/etc."

While I appreciated the book, this was hardly not predictable.  There are people whose jobs it was to predict this and they did.   And the criticism is not about predicting the future past, but about how the administration lost critical time once it was known to be a serious hazard and how they actively took steps to spread misinformation and downplayed their response meanwhile members of congress were dumping their stocks to get ahead of the coming plunge.   Then we find out how weak our healthcare system is, and how it exists on the margins in spite of the wealth of this nation.    

Years before Katrina hit New Orleans it was brought to congress' attention that the levees were in need of repair/redesign and the cost was estimated to be $2 billion.  Congress balked at this figure.   Having done those modification the damage would have been far less severe.   

As a layperson in graduate school when the 2008 crash hit, I was mostly paying attention to my research.  I could see how health care costs were rising, and how housing costs were rising and yet wages remained stagnant.   I am a geoscientist, not an economist.  I could reason that if you have a set income, and you raise costs, that something has to give.  Since population wise, Americans do not save money and many live close to the margins, then this would collapse.   I knew a another fellow who came to the same conclusion.   My now half-Trumpkin parents advised me to buy a $300k house on a salary of $14K.  They were surprised by the collapse.  

 

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14251

Posted
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25 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

In which Time acts just like your Uncle Freddy after he is cold-busted posting fake news / quotes on Facebook. "Well, yeah, but it sounds like something he could have said."

Avatar checks out.

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UDontKnow

UDontKnow 10439

Posted
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26 minutes ago, Pancho said:

How could anyone defend Trump right now? 

 

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is claiming no recollection of memos and briefings. He's been having a rough week. First, the Secretary of Navy and now this. And IIRC (please correct me if I'm wrong), he's not completely unqualified to be in his position. But then again, this is the Trump administration.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/us-intelligence-report-china-coronavirus/index.html

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11809

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Black Swan events as we know them consist of the three components. I see the third component a lot on this board:

1) Impossible to predict

2) Wide-reaching and wide impact of consequences

3) People will try to justify we could prevent, with a fallacy known as hindsight bias.

 

One of the things about a Black Swan event that hasn't been touched on is the hindsight bias that gets applied to it. If you don't like Trump it's going to be easy to go back and say, "well, if we had those people he didn't lay off, Covid-19 wouldn't have happened/would have been lessened/etc."

It feels good emotionally to lash out at the leader, and the GOP idiots would be spit roasting a Dem if a Dem were President, but equally wouldn't make a significant difference.

It's like the M&M Prop 1 of capital structure but for politics; doesn't matter the leverage, it's all the same.

If you're trying to say that competent leadership, who is focused on leading/helping the country rather than exclusively on themselves would not make a difference then I can't help you.  Nobody can.

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted
Just now, Judge Roybeanbag said:

If you're trying to say that competent leadership, who is focused on leading/helping the country rather than exclusively on themselves would not make a difference then I can't help you.  Nobody can.

I'm saying the difference wouldn't be statistically significant, in a best case scenario that is modeled as of press time.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23394

Posted
Posted

US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

 

Somebody should publish the intelligence report. Coronavirus was not isolated and identified as the cause of illness until January.  The first reported cluster of infections were identified as an infectious pneumonia in late December. The first death reported on January 11.  Would be interesting to say what the report actually said about the leading signals that were being observed, and how they were interpreted.  I bet they have electronic communications between doctors and shit.   

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29234

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

I'm saying the difference wouldn't be statistically significant, in a best case scenario that is modeled as of press time.

The difference between the numbers here and in South Korea are pretty goddamned significant.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14966

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It also doesn't mean that no one should get it but that is the kind of crap the mainstream media believes and they amplify it every chance they get.


Do you even realize that the use of the term “mainstream media” and complaining about it is actually a specific propaganda tactic the Republican Party established years ago to trick rubes into ignoring factual news media?

To even have the thought process that there is this vague, massive, coordinated, majority of media that is plotting to undermine conservatism is utterly ridiculous in a world where you have OAN, Fox News, Alex Jones, Rush Limbaugh, the Drudge Report, Brietbart, and other conservative media doing exactly what you are complaining about. And the fact that you can’t even understand that makes you look really uniformed and unintelligent.

MSNBC, Huffington Post and other sources do post propaganda for the left, but dude you need to learn to properly evaluate sources before believing something. PBS, Reuters, BBC and other sources are reasonably good factual news sources. Educate yourself and quit looking like an idiot in this world by using terms like mainstream media.
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Jack Straw

Jack Straw 2953

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

  But the majority of Americans will consider it a huge win if the current model projection of 60,000 deaths comes to fruition.

translation: 100% of Republicans are party over country hacks who will spin this as a victory for Trump despite the fact that he has been a complete and utter failure in all respects who has and will costs thousands of Americans their lives.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

60,000 deaths is not a huge win for the country, no matter who or what spins it. That is garbage.

I would say it would be at this stage. State gov't officials should get the credit though. Trump, and really the entire federal gov't, have done nothing but obfuscate and get in the way. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23394

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, elfenix said:

looks like texas is now behind such noted places as oklahoma and mississippi in testing.  good job, good effort.

(per 1point3acres)

Among the lowest in the nation in deaths though, so we got that going for us. 

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Nivek

Nivek 16856

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

I'm saying the difference wouldn't be statistically significant, in a best case scenario that is modeled as of press time.

What are you basing this on?  Do you think the outcome of WWII would have been different if Chamberlain was to lead the Brits throughout the war as opposed to Churchill?

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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Posted
12 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

entire world goes 'I am Legend' Aug 31 

Nah, that's gonna be after the vaccine.  It will prevent covid, but cause us to be mindless zombies that burn up in the sunlight, and it will also make apes and cats superintelligent.  So we will be huddled in the sewers scrounging for rats to eat while cats and apes fight a war for global supremacy on the surface.

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