CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[WBT 20,397]

8 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Shocker...EMA can't do math.

You can't count people who are still sick as recovered, you dumb fucking idiot.

So far in the US there have been about (it changes so quickly) 18,747 deaths and 27,314 recoveries.  I.e. roughly 1.5 recoveries per death... I'd say that's slightly more that 1 out of 250.

The fact is we won't know the actual number until this is all over, but I'm willing to bet that US's final tally is at least 10x more deadly than your preposterous 1 out of 250 claim.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

Quote

Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.39%.*

This estimate is that between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 250 infected die.  Many people are nonsymptomatic and we're not testing nearly everyone with symptoms.  EMAW's number is probably not that far off.  With how infectious this is though, the social distancing efforts are still justified in my mind.

Edited April 11, 2020 by WBT

[Underdog 28,437]

12 hours ago, Zombie said:

Goddamit, put a bullet in all of them. Fucking evil. 

Needs to be a silver bullet, can't take no chances. 

[conVINCEd 21,468]

11 hours ago, Nivek said:

Enterprise, we’ll pick you up.

Vans for transporting corpses are my jam.

[Underdog 28,437]

8 hours ago, dlatin said:

Why the need to bury unclaimed persons in NY in trenches, why not cremate? I plan to be cremated when the time is right.

Soylent Green. 

[DixonHur 11,074]

32 minutes ago, WBT said:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

This estimate is that between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 250 infected die.  Many people are nonsymptomatic and we're not testing nearly everyone with symptoms.  EMAW's number is probably not that far off.  With how infectious this is though, the social distancing efforts are still justified in my mind.

Two issues I have with the article upon first glance...I'm on my phone.

1. It's not been peer reviewed

2. They state they don't have a good sense of how many people are asymptomatic

As someone who used to build financial models for a living, before getting smart, and ditching corporate life, assumptions are everything.  So if you don't have a solid handle on why you've selected the  assumptions you did, then the output is likely to be garbage.

Sounds like they are just spitballing the denominator.

Edited April 11, 2020 by DixonHur

[HenryJames 65,868]

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

14 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Vans for transporting corpses are my jam.

I have a little green wagon my husband bought for me to haul garden stuff. I'm to the point now that I'm thinking he should just wheel me to the curb or I'm okay with being compost in the backyard. The townsfolk are getting antsy about staying home, so my guess is the restrictions in Texas will be lifted everywhere except the largest cities like Dallas, etc and everyone will be on their own. Pretty much as we've been since this mobbed-up miscreant moron got elected. I would like to strategically divert my taxes to programs that are not subject to the Trump Crime Syndicate's sticky fingers, but I'm not optimistic. I've been on the lanai before, and we braved a trip to Spec's to reload, but I do believe I'm going to stay on the lanai and if necessary bypass the ledge altogether if it comes to that. I'll just have a nice runway straight into the air.

18,781 deaths in less than 3 months. Lord have mercy.

[elfenix 34,167]

9 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I have a little green wagon my husband bought for me to haul garden stuff. I'm to the point now that I'm thinking he should just wheel me to the curb or I'm okay with being compost in the backyard. The townsfolk are getting antsy about staying home, so my guess is the restrictions in Texas will be lifted everywhere except the largest cities like Dallas, etc and everyone will be on their own. Pretty much as we've been since this mobbed-up miscreant moron got elected. I would like to strategically divert my taxes to programs that are not subject to the Trump Crime Syndicate's sticky fingers, but I'm not optimistic. I've been on the lanai before, and we braved a trip to Spec's to reload, but I do believe I'm going to stay on the lanai and if necessary bypass the ledge altogether if it comes to that. I'll just have a nice runway straight into the air.

18,781 deaths in less than 3 months. Lord have mercy.

 

[Dahobbs 17,420]

36 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Two issues I have with the article upon first glance...I'm on my phone.

1. It's not been peer reviewed

2. They state they don't have a good sense of how many people are asymptomatic

As someone who used to build financial models for a living, before getting smart, and ditching corporate life, assumptions are everything.  So if you don't have a solid handle on why you've selected the  assumptions you did, then the output is likely to be garbage.

Sounds like they are just spitballing the denominator.

I also have a hard time reconciling a substantially lower fatality estimates with South Korea's data.  They have been testing basically everyone and have a CFR of 2%. As they appear to have the disease under pretty tight control by testing and isolating the infected, it is hard to imagine that there is a huge population of asymptomatic people that have escaped their notice. If that were the case, wouldn't we expect the disease to still be spreading despite their efforts?  For instance, if for every symptomatic person that was caught via testing, 9 asymptotic people escaped notice, then isolating that one symptomatic person shouldn't have much of an effect in combating the spread of the disease. The only way their success in that scenario could really makes sense is if asymptotic individuals have significantly reduced (0) ability to spread the disease. I suppose that is possible, but it seems pretty counter to everything we've seen so far. 

[DixonHur 11,074]

To that point, question for the scientists...what is the definition of infected?  Are there degrees of infection?  

I ask, because I feel that just testing positive for antibodies doesn't seem like a good measure of being infected.  At least to the layman like me.  I'd think having antibodies would just indicate someone has been exposed, and not necessarily infected, if that distinction can be made.

I'm sure I have antibodies to a lot of things that wouldn't rise to the level of infection, but perhaps I'm just not clear on what it means to be infected.

[Tuco 5,076]

13 hours ago, EMAWesome said:

So we are shutting the entire country down for a disease that kills 1 out of every 250 people it infects (assuming there has been no one wandering around out there with it who hasn't been diagnosed which is kind of like assuming the Detroit Lions are going to the Super Bowl).  We are a country full of morons.

 

1 hour ago, WBT said:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

This estimate is that between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 250 infected die.  Many people are nonsymptomatic and we're not testing nearly everyone with symptoms.  EMAW's number is probably not that far off.  With how infectious this is though, the social distancing efforts are still justified in my mind.

Yeah, clearly EMAW was using 500k as his denominator and not including undiagnosed carriers.  Because EMAW is dumber than dirt.  And, 1 out of 250 is still well over a 1 million American fatalities.  And, when those requiring hospitalization all come at once, the fatality rate increases considerably since they can't all get medical treatment. 

[pyrohornIII 4,801]

33 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I also have a hard time reconciling a substantially lower fatality estimates with South Korea's data.  They have been testing basically everyone and have a CFR of 2%. As they appear to have the disease under pretty tight control by testing and isolating the infected, it is hard to imagine that there is a huge population of asymptomatic people that have escaped their notice. If that were the case, wouldn't we expect the disease to still be spreading despite their efforts?  For instance, if for every symptomatic person that was caught via testing, 9 asymptotic people escaped notice, then isolating that one symptomatic person shouldn't have much of an effect in combating the spread of the disease. The only way their success in that scenario could really makes sense is if asymptotic individuals have significantly reduced (0) ability to spread the disease. I suppose that is possible, but it seems pretty counter to everything we've seen so far. 

I would think the facemask precautions over there would make a significant impact on the spread. 

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

 

 

I'll posit that Jeffress is as bad as any on the list previously posted. 

If I have to find something to be thankful for today then I'm gonna say it's having Country Strong Clay Jenkins at the helm of Dallas County. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by cactusflinthead

[Dahobbs 17,420]

4 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

I would think the facemask precautions over there would make a significant impact on the spread. 

That is certainly true. And I'd buy that facemasks could counter the effects of a significant number of unidentified infected individuals. But, there has to be limit there. Maybe it counters 1 unidentified infected per confirmed cases, but not the 5x to 10x ratio that article suggests. 

[DixonHur 11,074]

Virtually attend?  What a fucking pussy.  Get in there shake some hands and kiss some babies... after all, COVID is just a hoax

[TwiceHorn 31,184]

I don't know that Jeffress has enriched himself to the degree of the aforementioned, but as far as bad theology and humanity goes, he's near the top.

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I don't know that Jeffress has enriched himself to the degree of the aforementioned, but as far as bad theology and humanity goes, he's near the top.

Nah,  it's not the money. It's the hateful shit he spews.

[DDD Dad 14,167]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

W is a devout Methodist. I can guarantee you he’s more devout that Hilary. Once again you popping off on religion with predictable bullshit. 

Dick measuring on who's more devout not going away.

 

Hi Rex!

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

Because he wants you to be annoyed. 

[Continental Op 3,934]

lol Bush v Hillary church attendance talk in a pandemic thread not going away. 

[DixonHur 11,074]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

W is a devout Methodist. I can guarantee you he’s more devout that Hilary. Once again you popping off on religion with predictable bullshit. 

How does one measure devoutness?  Is it number of prayers? Or body count?

[Anastasis 23,375]

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

How does one measure devoutness?  Is it number of prayers? Or body count?

The unit of measure is 5 gallon buckets of freeze dried survival soup. 

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by cactusflinthead

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

Thread 

[jimmyjazz 45,512]

18 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

How does one measure devoutness?  Is it number of prayers? Or body count?

W used to attend church in west Austin across the street from the school where my wife teaches.  I can roughly estimate that "devout" equals "attends Sunday service approximately once a month".

[Gatorubet 30,064]

15 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

It’s done irreparable damage to Christianity across the board.

People want to join any group because they want to be like them - or because the group has something of value that they want to access (be it social prestige, a feeling of belonging, a need to explore their spirituality) - and/or because they respect the membership.  

Ain't nobody joining a church because of those Trump loving, poor/brown skin hating, anti-science morons.    There are many fine Christians walking in the steps of Jesus, and living that life.    But the Evangelical movement is now working ever harder to becoming synonymous with ignorance, hate and hypocrisy.    Young people see that and want nothing to do with it.

[HenryJames 65,868]

 

[Wanker Bob 379]

On 4/10/2020 at 10:35 AM, mchookem said:

yeah...once during the 2016 campaign, my mother was going on about some nonsense...i wasn't even going to contradict her b/c i knew there was no point, i just picked up my phone b/c i was checking out of the conversation and was gonna check shaggy or something...and she immediately said "and don't be looking up and showing me facts and things, i'm not interested!"

i was too flabbergasted to even reply. 

she passed away a little over a year ago. i'm honestly grateful...she was in terrible health, multiple comorbidity factors and lived alone in Houston, just imagining trying to go through this with her pushed me to tears the other night. 

#one less terrible vote. 

 

Sorry, I had to. But yeah, she's much better off not having to go through this stuff. 

[Mo Horn 8,795]

2 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

18,781 deaths in less than 3 months. Lord have mercy.

But, protections now show there will be less than 60,000 so it's all good. Greatest president ever. 

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Not to derail any further but TUMC, every Sunday he was governor with little exception. 

All that church going isn't going to save him.

[DDD Dad 14,167]

46 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

@immamacWhy is this guy’s posts still appearing for me?

Obsession noted.

[Gatorubet 30,064]

47 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Because He wants you to be annoyed. 

fify

[UDontKnow 10,439]

16 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

It’s done irreparable damage to Christianity across the board.

A view on Christians from a heathen:

"I like your Christ, but not your Christianity. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ."  ---Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi

 

[Dahobbs 17,420]

5 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

But, protections now show there will be less than 60,000 so it's all good. Greatest president ever. 

Also, let's give credit where credit is due. Almost all of that 18,000 occurred in the last 15 days, not over 3 months.  

[Anastasis 23,375]

[SaucyJack 3,484]

WOW.  A full 7 months before we open up in April,  according to my president!

Edited April 11, 2020 by SaucyJack

[Dnaguy 11,740]

1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

Virtually attend?  What a fucking pussy.  Get in there shake some hands and kiss some babies... after all, COVID is just a hoax

You really think he is going to watch?

i mean it might be on a laptop in the room he’s in.... but he’ll be tweeting and watching foxnews and giving no shits.

I guarantee he knows 0% what Easter is actually about / why we even have the holiday.

[jimmyjazz 45,512]

Question:  are there any other main drivers to California's vastly lower caseload and mortality statistics beyond the March 20 stay-at-home order issued by Governor Newsom?

[UDontKnow 10,439]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Had he actually been like that, India would have gotten it's independence 15-20 years earlier. There is a small chance that it would never have been partitioned, and a good chance that it would be a top 3 economy in modern times (this recent recession notwithstanding).  

Edited April 11, 2020 by UDontKnow

[Radical Larry 28,523]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

 

[henrygandorf 29,174]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Question:  are there any other main drivers to California's vastly lower caseload and mortality statistics beyond the March 20 stay-at-home order issued by Governor Newsom?

most of the state (or at least socal) was on lockdown a full week earlier (starting the 14th weekend). sf actually instituted their order before la, so who knows. i mentioned it repeatedly on here starting around march 15th or so, but it was dead outside and everything was closed. 

maybe we just took it seriously on a statewide level. most people here watched and listened to garcetti and newsom and kinda disregarded everyone else. most states were not as lucky.  all cities and counties were pulling in the same direction. makes it easier. 

[jimmyjazz 45,512]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

most of the state (or at least socal) was on lockdown a full week earlier (starting the 14th weekend). sf actually instituted their order before la, so who knows. i mentioned it repeatedly on here starting around march 15th or so, but it was dead outside and everything was closed. 

maybe we just took it seriously on a statewide level. most people here watched and listened to garcetti and newsom and kinda disregarded everyone else. most states were not as lucky.  all cities and counties were pulling in the same direction. makes it easier. 

If we look at New York statistics relative to California's, they were very similar in mid-March.  Now New York has sustained nearly 15X the # of deaths, and over 8X the reported cases.  While the latter can be a bit fuzzy, mortality rates should be pretty on point, with some understandable reporting discrepancies.

I just don't see how this isn't blindingly obvious evidence that Trump's failure to take significant action by sooner probably condemned tens of thousands of Americans to death.  Is there something I'm missing?

[GW Hayduke 1,950]

[yoladu 4,065]

1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

How does one measure devoutness?  Is it number of prayers? Or body count?

[yoladu 4,065]

21 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

this is all kinds of awesome.

[jimmyjazz 45,512]

5 minutes ago, yoladu said:

this is all kinds of awesome.

I love that the "2" isn't even half the "4".

[Anastasis 23,375]

27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If we look at New York statistics relative to California's, they were very similar in mid-March.  Now New York has sustained nearly 15X the # of deaths, and over 8X the reported cases.  While the latter can be a bit fuzzy, mortality rates should be pretty on point, with some understandable reporting discrepancies.

NY was heavily seeded from Europe due to the failure to implement a european travel ban until it was too late. 

[HenryJames 65,868]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

 

Receipts thread.

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

Because it's a bright spot 

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by cactusflinthead