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Mrs Whiggins

By Mrs Whiggins
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WBT

WBT 20572

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Shocker...EMA can't do math.

You can't count people who are still sick as recovered, you dumb fucking idiot.

So far in the US there have been about (it changes so quickly) 18,747 deaths and 27,314 recoveries.  I.e. roughly 1.5 recoveries per death... I'd say that's slightly more that 1 out of 250.

The fact is we won't know the actual number until this is all over, but I'm willing to bet that US's final tally is at least 10x more deadly than your preposterous 1 out of 250 claim.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

Quote

Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.39%.*

This estimate is that between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 250 infected die.  Many people are nonsymptomatic and we're not testing nearly everyone with symptoms.  EMAW's number is probably not that far off.  With how infectious this is though, the social distancing efforts are still justified in my mind.

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I'd just like to point out that neither myself nor any of my fellow nurses, fellow advanced nurse practitioners, and other healthcare providers ever swore an oath that we would lay down our lives for

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Welp, it finally happened. I snapped in public today. I went into work for a bit this morning because I’m trying to figure out the safest way to host physicians we are recruiting given our CV-19 sit

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I don't really know what to say anymore tbh. What happened last night is hard to put into words for anyone who hasn't worked in a hospital healthcare setting. Just unreal. Everyone is getting fucked.

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11304

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, WBT said:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

This estimate is that between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 250 infected die.  Many people are nonsymptomatic and we're not testing nearly everyone with symptoms.  EMAW's number is probably not that far off.  With how infectious this is though, the social distancing efforts are still justified in my mind.

Two issues I have with the article upon first glance...I'm on my phone.

1. It's not been peer reviewed

2. They state they don't have a good sense of how many people are asymptomatic

As someone who used to build financial models for a living, before getting smart, and ditching corporate life, assumptions are everything.  So if you don't have a solid handle on why you've selected the  assumptions you did, then the output is likely to be garbage.

Sounds like they are just spitballing the denominator.

Edited by DixonHur
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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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14 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Vans for transporting corpses are my jam.

I have a little green wagon my husband bought for me to haul garden stuff. I'm to the point now that I'm thinking he should just wheel me to the curb or I'm okay with being compost in the backyard. The townsfolk are getting antsy about staying home, so my guess is the restrictions in Texas will be lifted everywhere except the largest cities like Dallas, etc and everyone will be on their own. Pretty much as we've been since this mobbed-up miscreant moron got elected. I would like to strategically divert my taxes to programs that are not subject to the Trump Crime Syndicate's sticky fingers, but I'm not optimistic. I've been on the lanai before, and we braved a trip to Spec's to reload, but I do believe I'm going to stay on the lanai and if necessary bypass the ledge altogether if it comes to that. I'll just have a nice runway straight into the air.

18,781 deaths in less than 3 months. Lord have mercy.

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elfenix

elfenix 34240

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9 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I have a little green wagon my husband bought for me to haul garden stuff. I'm to the point now that I'm thinking he should just wheel me to the curb or I'm okay with being compost in the backyard. The townsfolk are getting antsy about staying home, so my guess is the restrictions in Texas will be lifted everywhere except the largest cities like Dallas, etc and everyone will be on their own. Pretty much as we've been since this mobbed-up miscreant moron got elected. I would like to strategically divert my taxes to programs that are not subject to the Trump Crime Syndicate's sticky fingers, but I'm not optimistic. I've been on the lanai before, and we braved a trip to Spec's to reload, but I do believe I'm going to stay on the lanai and if necessary bypass the ledge altogether if it comes to that. I'll just have a nice runway straight into the air.

18,781 deaths in less than 3 months. Lord have mercy.

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

Posted
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36 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Two issues I have with the article upon first glance...I'm on my phone.

1. It's not been peer reviewed

2. They state they don't have a good sense of how many people are asymptomatic

As someone who used to build financial models for a living, before getting smart, and ditching corporate life, assumptions are everything.  So if you don't have a solid handle on why you've selected the  assumptions you did, then the output is likely to be garbage.

Sounds like they are just spitballing the denominator.

I also have a hard time reconciling a substantially lower fatality estimates with South Korea's data.  They have been testing basically everyone and have a CFR of 2%. As they appear to have the disease under pretty tight control by testing and isolating the infected, it is hard to imagine that there is a huge population of asymptomatic people that have escaped their notice. If that were the case, wouldn't we expect the disease to still be spreading despite their efforts?  For instance, if for every symptomatic person that was caught via testing, 9 asymptotic people escaped notice, then isolating that one symptomatic person shouldn't have much of an effect in combating the spread of the disease. The only way their success in that scenario could really makes sense is if asymptotic individuals have significantly reduced (0) ability to spread the disease. I suppose that is possible, but it seems pretty counter to everything we've seen so far. 

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11304

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To that point, question for the scientists...what is the definition of infected?  Are there degrees of infection?  

I ask, because I feel that just testing positive for antibodies doesn't seem like a good measure of being infected.  At least to the layman like me.  I'd think having antibodies would just indicate someone has been exposed, and not necessarily infected, if that distinction can be made.

I'm sure I have antibodies to a lot of things that wouldn't rise to the level of infection, but perhaps I'm just not clear on what it means to be infected.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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13 hours ago, EMAWesome said:

So we are shutting the entire country down for a disease that kills 1 out of every 250 people it infects (assuming there has been no one wandering around out there with it who hasn't been diagnosed which is kind of like assuming the Detroit Lions are going to the Super Bowl).  We are a country full of morons.

 

1 hour ago, WBT said:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

This estimate is that between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 250 infected die.  Many people are nonsymptomatic and we're not testing nearly everyone with symptoms.  EMAW's number is probably not that far off.  With how infectious this is though, the social distancing efforts are still justified in my mind.

Yeah, clearly EMAW was using 500k as his denominator and not including undiagnosed carriers.  Because EMAW is dumber than dirt.  And, 1 out of 250 is still well over a 1 million American fatalities.  And, when those requiring hospitalization all come at once, the fatality rate increases considerably since they can't all get medical treatment. 

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4814

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33 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I also have a hard time reconciling a substantially lower fatality estimates with South Korea's data.  They have been testing basically everyone and have a CFR of 2%. As they appear to have the disease under pretty tight control by testing and isolating the infected, it is hard to imagine that there is a huge population of asymptomatic people that have escaped their notice. If that were the case, wouldn't we expect the disease to still be spreading despite their efforts?  For instance, if for every symptomatic person that was caught via testing, 9 asymptotic people escaped notice, then isolating that one symptomatic person shouldn't have much of an effect in combating the spread of the disease. The only way their success in that scenario could really makes sense is if asymptotic individuals have significantly reduced (0) ability to spread the disease. I suppose that is possible, but it seems pretty counter to everything we've seen so far. 

I would think the facemask precautions over there would make a significant impact on the spread. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

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4 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

I would think the facemask precautions over there would make a significant impact on the spread. 

That is certainly true. And I'd buy that facemasks could counter the effects of a significant number of unidentified infected individuals. But, there has to be limit there. Maybe it counters 1 unidentified infected per confirmed cases, but not the 5x to 10x ratio that article suggests. 

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14339

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

W is a devout Methodist. I can guarantee you he’s more devout that Hilary. Once again you popping off on religion with predictable bullshit. 

Dick measuring on who's more devout not going away.

 

Hi Rex!

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11304

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26 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

W is a devout Methodist. I can guarantee you he’s more devout that Hilary. Once again you popping off on religion with predictable bullshit. 

How does one measure devoutness?  Is it number of prayers? Or body count?

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45952

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18 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

How does one measure devoutness?  Is it number of prayers? Or body count?

W used to attend church in west Austin across the street from the school where my wife teaches.  I can roughly estimate that "devout" equals "attends Sunday service approximately once a month".

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30238

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15 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


It’s done irreparable damage to Christianity across the board.

People want to join any group because they want to be like them - or because the group has something of value that they want to access (be it social prestige, a feeling of belonging, a need to explore their spirituality) - and/or because they respect the membership.  

Ain't nobody joining a church because of those Trump loving, poor/brown skin hating, anti-science morons.    There are many fine Christians walking in the steps of Jesus, and living that life.    But the Evangelical movement is now working ever harder to becoming synonymous with ignorance, hate and hypocrisy.    Young people see that and want nothing to do with it.

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Wanker Bob

Wanker Bob 379

Posted
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On 4/10/2020 at 10:35 AM, mchookem said:

yeah...once during the 2016 campaign, my mother was going on about some nonsense...i wasn't even going to contradict her b/c i knew there was no point, i just picked up my phone b/c i was checking out of the conversation and was gonna check shaggy or something...and she immediately said "and don't be looking up and showing me facts and things, i'm not interested!"

i was too flabbergasted to even reply. 

she passed away a little over a year ago. i'm honestly grateful...she was in terrible health, multiple comorbidity factors and lived alone in Houston, just imagining trying to go through this with her pushed me to tears the other night. 

#one less terrible vote. 

 

Sorry, I had to. But yeah, she's much better off not having to go through this stuff. 

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UDontKnow

UDontKnow 10445

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16 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


It’s done irreparable damage to Christianity across the board.

A view on Christians from a heathen:

"I like your Christ, but not your Christianity. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ."  ---Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

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5 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

But, protections now show there will be less than 60,000 so it's all good. Greatest president ever. 

Also, let's give credit where credit is due. Almost all of that 18,000 occurred in the last 15 days, not over 3 months.  

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11964

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1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

Virtually attend?  What a fucking pussy.  Get in there shake some hands and kiss some babies... after all, COVID is just a hoax

You really think he is going to watch?

i mean it might be on a laptop in the room he’s in.... but he’ll be tweeting and watching foxnews and giving no shits.

I guarantee he knows 0% what Easter is actually about / why we even have the holiday.

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UDontKnow

UDontKnow 10445

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

fake-mahatma-gandhi-quote-2.png

Had he actually been like that, India would have gotten it's independence 15-20 years earlier. There is a small chance that it would never have been partitioned, and a good chance that it would be a top 3 economy in modern times (this recent recession notwithstanding).  

Edited by UDontKnow
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29191

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9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Question:  are there any other main drivers to California's vastly lower caseload and mortality statistics beyond the March 20 stay-at-home order issued by Governor Newsom?

most of the state (or at least socal) was on lockdown a full week earlier (starting the 14th weekend). sf actually instituted their order before la, so who knows. i mentioned it repeatedly on here starting around march 15th or so, but it was dead outside and everything was closed. 

maybe we just took it seriously on a statewide level. most people here watched and listened to garcetti and newsom and kinda disregarded everyone else. most states were not as lucky.  all cities and counties were pulling in the same direction. makes it easier. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45952

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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

most of the state (or at least socal) was on lockdown a full week earlier (starting the 14th weekend). sf actually instituted their order before la, so who knows. i mentioned it repeatedly on here starting around march 15th or so, but it was dead outside and everything was closed. 

maybe we just took it seriously on a statewide level. most people here watched and listened to garcetti and newsom and kinda disregarded everyone else. most states were not as lucky.  all cities and counties were pulling in the same direction. makes it easier. 

If we look at New York statistics relative to California's, they were very similar in mid-March.  Now New York has sustained nearly 15X the # of deaths, and over 8X the reported cases.  While the latter can be a bit fuzzy, mortality rates should be pretty on point, with some understandable reporting discrepancies.

I just don't see how this isn't blindingly obvious evidence that Trump's failure to take significant action by sooner probably condemned tens of thousands of Americans to death.  Is there something I'm missing?

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

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27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If we look at New York statistics relative to California's, they were very similar in mid-March.  Now New York has sustained nearly 15X the # of deaths, and over 8X the reported cases.  While the latter can be a bit fuzzy, mortality rates should be pretty on point, with some understandable reporting discrepancies.

NY was heavily seeded from Europe due to the failure to implement a european travel ban until it was too late. 

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