CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[jimmyjazz 45538]

24 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Well you could read the link I posted or do a little googling yourself. Or continue to believe a tweet that was sourced off a fucking reddit thread.

Dude.  This is surly.  Relax.  It was just a little Friday snark.

[GRHorn 105]

50 minutes ago, F250 said:

Curious if we will see clusters pop up with all of the nationwide protests.

We won’t. Coronavirus is sensitive to heat. The fires will kill all the virus. It’s why the protestors are lighting them. 4D Chess and so on. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by GRHorn

[triplehorn 2664]

55 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Well you could read the link I posted or do a little googling yourself. Or continue to believe a tweet that was sourced off a fucking reddit thread.

to be clear, those above numbers got qualified as not being verified and it's obvious totals don't square between number sets.  Emptywheel linked above is a fourth set of numbers that support the trend.  I missed other discussions about it but the numbers seem to suggest possible suppression, yeah?  Would be a big deal.

[justhookit 4174]

5 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

to be clear, those above numbers got qualified as not being verified and it's obvious totals don't square between number sets.  Emptywheel linked above is a fourth set of numbers that support the trend.  I missed other discussions about it but the numbers seem to suggest possible suppression, yeah?  Would be a big deal.

I just posted that to show that the tweet’s claim that they were 4x or 5x the number of pneumonia cases was utter horseshit. Many others have since responded to that tweet and it appears that the real increase is somewhere in the range of 0-25%. Whatever is going on there is no doubt in my mind that we are slightly to moderately undercounting covid deaths. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

Here's the CDC search pages. I've tried to verify them for Texas but it won't work on mobile because won't let me de-select "all" option on multiple fields. If somebody wants to do it on their computer and post what they find that would be cool. 

2013-2018 numbers page:

https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D76;jsessionid=9A10F77D0F70C39996D102FD1032F06E

The chart showing Texas pneumonia deaths through 5/29/20 as 4976 pneumonia and 517 pneumonia and covid combined for 5493 total:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Edited May 29, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[Dahobbs 17420]

6 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I just posted that to show that the tweet’s claim that they were 4x or 5x the number of pneumonia cases was utter horseshit. Many others have since responded to that tweet and it appears that the real increase is somewhere in the range of 0-25%. Whatever is going on there is no doubt in my mind that we are slightly to moderately undercounting covid deaths. 

Correct. The available evidence supports moderate under-counting in Florida. It doesn't support the idea that Florida is reporting only a small fraction of Covid-19 related deaths. I'm actually surprised by that, but that is how it appears. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

2 hours ago, justhookit said:

It’s because they are bullshit. @Dahobbs mentioned that above and it was talked about yesterday on the DT thread. 

Florida’s real numbers for example - https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/05/27/is-covid-19-why-florida-has-about-1300-more-pneumonia-deaths-this-season-than-average-over-previous-five/

2014-2015                 5510

2015-2016                 5214

2016-2017                 5540

2017-2018                 5792

2018-2019                 5374

2019-2020                 6772

 

That's not good news. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

1 hour ago, Wanker Bob said:

Here's the CDC search pages. I've tried to verify them for Texas but it won't work on mobile because won't let me de-select "all" option on multiple fields. If somebody wants to do it on their computer and post what they find that would be cool. 

2013-2018 numbers page:

https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D76;jsessionid=9A10F77D0F70C39996D102FD1032F06E

The chart showing Texas pneumonia deaths through 5/29/20 as 4976 pneumonia and 517 pneumonia and covid combined for 5493 total:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

I'm not an expert on government reporting so if I'm making a mistake here let me know but that 2nd CDC link put has pneumonia Texas deaths at 4976 through May 29 while this one I found (click download data csv at bottom) has the total YEARLY pneumonia deaths for Texas as:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

2018 - 3516

2017 - 2954

2016 - 2860

2015 - 3214

2014 - 3452

That's a 5 yr average of 3199/yr for the entire year and we've already by May 29th hit 4976? I know it slows in the summer but it picks back up again in Oct-Dec and to be 1777 deaths over the yearly average by May 29 means this state is probably underreporting CV deaths by at least 1900 - 2k to this point, right? 

 

[4th&Five 41457]

Could have never predicted this. 

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Justice Roberts gonna be on Trump’s shitlist.

[RPM 26208]

7 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Could have never predicted this. 

 

I didn't see The Blue Cat Lodge on that list.

[HenryJames 65884]

 

[pyrohornIII 4805]

11 hours ago, RPM said:

I didn't see The Blue Cat Lodge on that list.

Shocking, right?

[F250 28674]

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2659]

On 5/30/2020 at 7:45 AM, HenryJames said:

 

I mean, why? What is the benefit of removing that information? Just so fucking contrarian.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Here in Louisiana, we are seeing a bit of a resurgence, mostly outside of NOLA.  We had around a thousand new cases yesterday. 

[Bullneck 18983]

On 5/28/2020 at 9:12 PM, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Pretty informative visualization

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/

Dammit, if only there was a way to put money on Covid 19, like in the 5th race at Santa Anita.  It comes from behind and blows everyone away. 

[HenryJames 65884]

 

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

20 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Endangering our military for vanity. There will be more of this as a result of the 4th of July parade too

[F250 28674]

This isn't good.

 

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2630]

It’s going to surge with a vengeance in a few weeks sadly. 

[4th&Five 41457]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

39 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

If this is somehow true, this might be some of the best news re:Covid in a long time. I think even most of the optimistic folks are assuming that the slowdown in cases even after we've started to open up has been due to warmer weather.

It would indicate that we can maintain our current infection levels or even reduce them by just doing what we're doing, and that a peak as the weather cools down isn't inevitable or even probable.

I hope it's true.

Edited June 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[jimmyjazz 45538]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

If this is somehow true, this might be some of the best news re:Covid in a long time. I think even most of the optimistic folks are assuming that the slowdown in cases even after we've started to open up has been due to warmer weather.

It would indicate that we can maintain our current infection levels or even reduce them by just doing what we're doing, and that a peak as the weather cools down isn't inevitable or even probable.

I hope it's true.

I don't see how it's good news at all.  We likely haven't seen a surge from Memorial Day and various protests because of the incubation period.  If warmer weather doesn't help mitigate, then there is little reason to believe "opening up" will have anything but a negative effect.

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't see how it's good news at all.  We likely haven't seen a surge from Memorial Day and various protests because of the incubation period.  If warmer weather doesn't help mitigate, then there is little reason to believe "opening up" will have anything but a negative effect.

We've been opening up slowly for basically a month now and haven't seen any real significant and consistent upward trend in cases as a whole. And memorial day weekend started 10 days ago, presumably we'd see an increase in hospitalizations already if we were going to see impact from that - we have not. 

Something is exerting downward pressure on the rate of growth of this thing. If it's not heat, then the most likely candidate is a combination of people being more vigilant, people not playing hero ball and going to work and social gatherings while they're sick, a lack of large gatherings, and general better practices. And those things, we have control over. 

I was a "wait two weeks" guy in the beginning and I still think that 1) with the info we had at the time, a lot of states and cities acted impulsively and stupidly and 2) a lot of people (both here and in leadership) were more concerned with the economy than human life. But I'm okay, as a "wait two weeks" guy, if being wrong means I can get the hell out of my house and go have a beer and watch some football.

Edited June 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[jimmyjazz 45538]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

We've been opening up slowly for basically a month now and haven't seen any real significant and consistent upward trend in cases as a whole. And memorial day weekend started 10 days ago, presumably we'd see an increase in hospitalizations already if we were going to see impact from that - we have not. 

Something is exerting downward pressure on the rate of growth of this thing. If it's not heat, then the most likely candidate is a combination of people being more vigilant, people not playing hero ball and going to work and social gatherings while they're sick, a lack of large gatherings, and general better practices. And those things, we have control over. 

I was a "wait two weeks" guy in the beginning and I still think that 1) with the info we had at the time, a lot of states and cities acted impulsively and stupidly and 2) a lot of people (both here and in leadership) were more concerned with the economy than human life. But I'm okay, as a "wait two weeks" guy, if being wrong means I can get the hell out of my house and go have a beer and watch some football.

We might be saying the same thing, but I think a whole lot of people didn't "open up" at all.  You might be right, though, there could have been just better practice at staying distant from others, wearing a mask, etc. 

I sure hope you're right.

[Skipper 6100]

5 hours ago, F250 said:

This isn't good.

 

It's Tuesday.   There is a big spike almost every single Tuesday when the weekend reporting log is cleared up.  It's amazing to me the media hasn't caught on to this phenomenon yet.

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

We might be saying the same thing, but I think a whole lot of people didn't "open up" at all.  You might be right, though, there could have been just better practice at staying distant from others, wearing a mask, etc. 

I sure hope you're right.

Yeah, I guess all I'm saying is that if it's something controllable, that's better than it being something totally out of our hands. Because if it's heat that slowed it down, we're in deep shit come October or so. If it's the changes in our behavior, while a lot of people will get definitely get complacent and it will get worse, we still have the ability to reduce some of the risk. Whereas we have no chance if it's seasonal. 

But I'm not convinced that it's not seasonal. Because so far since late spring, nothing we have done as a country has really changed the numbers. Which would lead one to believe it's seasonal, just like pretty much every other airborn virus that has ever existed.

Edited June 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[TexLonghorn 5587]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

It's Tuesday.   There is a big spike almost every single Tuesday when the weekend reporting log is cleared up.  It's amazing to me the media hasn't caught on to this phenomenon yet.

The story isn't that there are more cases or deaths than Monday; it's that there is a record high number of new cases and a record high number of new deaths for any day.  If you want to dismiss it as a Tuesday phenomenon, then this Tuesday is worse than any of the other Tuesdays since this virus began.  Isn't that notable when the peak of new cases/deaths should be behind us?

[RomaVicta 29769]

Again, here we are; a bunch of lay persons sifting scattered information and making our own guesses. The people who accuse scientists of being political are generating their own self-fulfilling prophecy by having politicians be the spokespersons during a plague.

I'm furious that many people are acting against their own interests and everyone else's because they aren't well informed.

[Skipper 6100]

1 hour ago, TexLonghorn said:

The story isn't that there are more cases or deaths than Monday; it's that there is a record high number of new cases and a record high number of new deaths for any day.  If you want to dismiss it as a Tuesday phenomenon, then this Tuesday is worse than any of the other Tuesdays since this virus began.  Isn't that notable when the peak of new cases/deaths should be behind us?

Not really.  Not without context.  If you have followed this as closely as I have you would realize the data reporting sucks.  There will be days with zero deaths reported and then days where they are all grouped together. If you dive in closer to the current numbers, for example, you will note that of the deaths reported between Friday's detailed report and today's detailed report, 1 of the recently reported deaths actually occurred the week ending 4/25, 1 occurred week ending 5/2, 2 occurred week ending  5/16 and 1 occurred the week ending 5/23.   There is still a reporting lag that is pretty much inexcusable considering it's June but it is what it is. 

The most telling thing is that as of now, hospitalizations remain flat based on most recent data.  Unfortunately there is a material lag with that data as well so if things do spike we may not know until it's late in the game.  Close to accurate info appears to consistently be about a week behind.  Considering actual hospitalization trails infection by 10+ days on average that's a long period.  Hopefully public officials have figured out real time monitoring of hospital beds.   But as of now, I remain cautiously optimistic this is seasonal (which may mean we're just fucked come late fall)

[Bama Chick 28596]

One of my dearest friends from college began having symptoms on Thursday, was admitted to the hospital with severe shortness of breath and a high fever on Saturday and was confirmed positive on Sunday.

He coded on Sunday and has been on a ventilator since and it took 27 minutes to resuscitate him. He had a brain scan today and the results were not promising. I just spoke to his wife and he is in kidney and liver failure and she was told to begin preparing their 15 year old daughter.

48 years old. Probably 20-30 pounds overweight but otherwise healthy.

I am absolutely devastated.

His wife and I work together so our whole department and our families had to get tested today.

[Message Board User 12389]

This is crazy. 

Can't do graduations, eat out, or get together with family & friends for Junior's 8 year old birthday party because of the small chance of transmission, but walking arm in arm with thousands of others (many who will probably end up arrested and in jail, where the Covid has been rampant) is OK because the cause is just.

I support the peaceful protests but c'mon public health and disease experts...

 

[BrickHorn 18185]

54 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

One of my dearest friends from college began having symptoms on Thursday, was admitted to the hospital with severe shortness of breath and a high fever on Saturday and was confirmed positive on Sunday.

He coded on Sunday and has been on a ventilator since and it took 27 minutes to resuscitate him. He had a brain scan today and the results were not promising. I just spoke to his wife and he is in kidney and liver failure and she was told to begin preparing their 15 year old daughter.

48 years old. Probably 20-30 pounds overweight but otherwise healthy.

I am absolutely devastated.

His wife and I work together so our whole department and our families had to get tested today.

Holy shit.  Sorry to hear that, Bama.

[Anastasis 23390]

52 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

This is crazy. 

Can't do graduations, eat out, or get together with family & friends for Junior's 8 year old birthday party because of the small chance of transmission, but walking arm in arm with thousands of others (many who will probably end up arrested and in jail, where the Covid has been rampant) is OK because the cause is just.

I support the peaceful protests but c'mon public health and disease experts...

 

 

That one can find dozens of dumb fucks to sign a letter like that is not particularly surprising. 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Anastasis

[safe sex 11676]

Sorry you and yours are having to go through the worst, Bama.

[NWBuck 8547]

50 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

That one can find dozens of dumb fucks to sign a letter like that is not particularly surprising. 

This. 

Like that one asshole who doesn't recommend Dentine to their patients who chew gum. 

[TexArcher 37506]

Sorry, Bama.  Heartbreaking.

[TwiceHorn 31240]

59 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

That one can find dozens of dumb fucks to sign a letter like that is not particularly surprising. 

True enough.  The letter does, however, recommend all the usual social distancing and other precautions associated with outdoor activities.  And promotes "supporting" protests over protesting.

But by now it has more than 1200 signatures, of public health and epidemiology luminaries such as:

Adrienne Jones- African American

Andrew Day- Public Health student and Volunteer

So it's hard to judge its credibility.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jyfn4Wd2i6bRi12ePghMHtX3ys1b7K1A/view

[Anastasis 23390]

 

18 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

True enough.  The letter does, however, recommend all the usual social distancing and other precautions associated with outdoor activities.  And promotes "supporting" protests over protesting.

But by now it has more than 1200 signatures, of public health and epidemiology luminaries such as:

Adrienne Jones- African American

Andrew Day- Public Health student and Volunteer

So it's hard to judge its credibility.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jyfn4Wd2i6bRi12ePghMHtX3ys1b7K1A/view

 

It made the pass through a few of the epi and stats twitter groups. There are some extremely influential signatories on that list.  Like people who wrote the Bible on certain disciplines within epidemiology. Kind of a little surprising to see some of the names on there to be honest. Strikes a pretty hypocritical note if you have been keeping up with the takes among the same folks since March. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

This is crazy. 

Can't do graduations, eat out, or get together with family & friends for Junior's 8 year old birthday party because of the small chance of transmission, but walking arm in arm with thousands of others (many who will probably end up arrested and in jail, where the Covid has been rampant) is OK because the cause is just.

I support the peaceful protests but c'mon public health and disease experts...

 

That's horrible. People should not be forgetting the dangerous pandemic. Here where I live I'm often now the only one wearing a mask other than store employees

[Wanker Bob 379]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

 

It made the pass through a few of the epi and stats twitter groups. There are some extremely influential signatories on that list.  Like people who wrote the Bible on certain disciplines within epidemiology. Kind of a little surprising to see some of the names on there to be honest. Strikes a pretty hypocritical note if you have been keeping up with the takes among the same folks since March. 

Please tell me Sanjay Gupta is not on that list. With everything going on I don't think I could take it if he was. 

[Anastasis 23390]

2 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Please tell me Sanjay Gupta is not on that list. With everything going on I don't think I could take it if he was. 

No Sanjay, but there is a UT student from the fine arts department in there. 

[RPM 26208]

Really hate to hear that Bama. Hang in there.

[staboner 4956]

all the best @Bama Chick that just sounds horrifying. no one should have to experience that path at all. so sorry. 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13545]

5 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

One of my dearest friends from college began having symptoms on Thursday, was admitted to the hospital with severe shortness of breath and a high fever on Saturday and was confirmed positive on Sunday.

He coded on Sunday and has been on a ventilator since and it took 27 minutes to resuscitate him. He had a brain scan today and the results were not promising. I just spoke to his wife and he is in kidney and liver failure and she was told to begin preparing their 15 year old daughter.

48 years old. Probably 20-30 pounds overweight but otherwise healthy.

I am absolutely devastated.

His wife and I work together so our whole department and our families had to get tested today.

Shit. I'm sorry Bama.

[HenryJames 65884]

 

[DDD Dad 14243]

True enough.  The letter does, however, recommend all the usual social distancing and other precautions associated with outdoor activities.  And promotes "supporting" protests over protesting.
But by now it has more than 1200 signatures, of public health and epidemiology luminaries such as:
Adrienne Jones- African American
Andrew Day- Public Health student and Volunteer
So it's hard to judge its credibility.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jyfn4Wd2i6bRi12ePghMHtX3ys1b7K1A/view

Posrep for proper apostrophe use.

[DigglerontheHoof 21044]

6 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

[Anastasis 23390]

14 minutes ago, HenryJames said: