CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[Wanker Bob 379]

48 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yeah, we need to stay with hospitalizations. @Anastasis' infographic uses cases which I think most everyone agrees is not a good metric. California's hospitalizations have been steady for the last couple of months. Basically flat.

I don't really care about other states. We're seeing what looks like the beginning of a trend showing that the relaxation of societal norms is leading to an uptick. And yeah, the protests probably contribute as well. I don't think it much matters because as a society we seem to be mostly "over it", and because the re-opening train is not going to stop.

What scenario do you envision needed to happen to re-tighten restrictions? I don't see it happening in Texas barring doomsday, overwhelmed hospitals type stuff. And even then, I think there'd be a significant portion of the population that wouldn't even abide by them.

The problem was just looking at hospitalizations is it omits the uninsured and underinsured who don't go to the hospital and end up either barely surviving or dying from it on their own.  

[Anastasis 23469]

1 hour ago, hayden_horn said:

it's somewhat mind-blowing that people won't take the most minor of precautions. my father in law offered to buy us tickets to a cap city comedy club show. that sounds like a terrible idea. bunch of people eating and drinking and laughing germs all over the place? no thanks.

i would say that after bungling the beginning, the uk's curve seems like it doesn't suck:

part of the reason that we struggle state by state is because we have utterly no national covid-19 leadership. i would argue that abbott opening up texas on may 1, despite a two day increase in cases, and only a slight plateau, not a clear downward indication is due to the president's approach to the pandemic. abbott wanted to show trump that texas was standing with him on covid-19. 

edit: and i realize the graph is deaths, so here is data on hospitalizations 

So you want to trade Abbott for Boris? Not so sure I agree. 

 

BTW, UK data doesn't really help in examining the impact of various approaches to reopening in different states within the USA. 

Edited June 11, 2020 by Anastasis

[BradInATX 9208]

The problem was just looking at hospitalizations is it omits the uninsured and underinsured who don't go to the hospital and end up either barely surviving or dying from it on their own.  

Good point. No idea how you account for that. You can't do admits + deaths because you'd be double counting most deaths.

[elfenix 34238]

 

[triplehorn 2664]

7 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Wrap yourself up in a cloak of clinical mysticism if it makes you feel better, but the reality is that there is no strong evidence supporting use of HCQ as a COVID treatment in any phase of the illness. To the extent that we have solid evidence, the results are negative. The gaps in knowledge will not be filled with mystical thinking on the unknowable granularity of clinical decision making. They will be filled by clinical research. That is the only role for HCQ at the moment, use in trials addressing the remaining gaps in knowledge. Anything else is simply quackery at this point. 

Are you a medical doctor, an MD ?  I have to ask.

[Wanker Bob 379]

40 minutes ago, elfenix said:

 

How much do low income people get in a year in food subsidy, Medicaid, CHIPS, etc?

How many years would it take to hit $500 billion?

Yeah, fuck republicans. Steal from us all and give to your rich buddies. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

On 5/10/2020 at 11:12 PM, washparkhorn said:

I am thinking this will be a head and shoulders recovery from the virus. We have crested the first shoulder and are headed down a flat plateau until we hit the neck - and then we see a sharp rise in deaths per day - followed by a short plateau and then a steep drop to the next shoulder. . . . 

This is what I anticipate:

The second spike in deaths causes a retightening of what is and is not open. Hopefully that causes people to be much more serious about the virus. We will then see a second loosening, but hopefully most people take it as a victory and to stay the course - rather than to party like its 1999. Virus fades (to be seen again in the Winter 2020). We should have a vaccine in a year, which will finally end the plague. 

Oh - and the recession is going to be a bitch.

We can be Britain during WWII and have our finest hour. Or we can have a civil war like what happened to Russia during WWI.

We are a Western democracy. This nation and Western democracies descend from Plato, Aristotle, Polybius, and the Enlightenment. If we can't pull together and save this Republic, this will have been a grand failure of idea that began 2500 years ago. 

Head and Shoulders here we come (?). This is simple Mandelbot set. Rinse and repeat the fractal.

Edited June 11, 2020 by washparkhorn

[bolverk 29671]

AUSTIN WILL LIKELY EXTEND STAY-HOME ORDERS AS TEXAS COVID-19 HOSPITALIZATIONS SPIKE

Sorry for tha all caps headline copy/pasta. Promise I'm not yelling - just on phone. This story indicates they haven't traced any new cases to the protests yet:

Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott said that this surge is not yet out of control, but will take a community effort to keep it from getting out of hand. Escott said no cases of COVID-19 have been traced back to the recent protests in the city yet.

[Anastasis 23469]

2 hours ago, triplehorn said:

Are you a medical doctor, an MD ?  I have to ask.

I watched spies like us a few times. Does that count. 
 

[Wanker Bob 379]

12 hours ago, trauma babe said:

I won't be setting foot in a Buccee's for the next year, easily.

Based on what you've seen outside of necessities like a grocery store where would you set foot in?

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[4th&Five 41527]

 

[washparkhorn 9939]

52 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Karens - regardless of gender - are becoming the Kraken in the United States. 

[High Plains Drifter 11046]

 

Interesting article in recent New Yorker about Iceland's low coivd rates

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus

 

tldr:

Extensive testing, early on. By May 17th, Iceland had tested 15.5 per cent of its population for the virus. In the U.S., the figure was 3.4 per cent.

Extensive contact tracing. Teams of investigators were set up BEFORE they even had a single case. EVERYONE who was in contact with a positive cases was quarantined.

Stocked up on protective gear for health care workers BEFORE they even had a single case.

Brought retired nurses and doctors back to work BEFORE they even had a single case.

Health care officials, not politicians, ran the show. Daily briefings that included, among other things, warnings about fake news and disinformation:

Reynisson, Guðnason, and Möller worked together out of an improvised COVID command center in the offices of the Icelandic Coast Guard. Through March, April, and much of May, they gave a joint briefing every day at 2 P.M., at which they discussed, matter-of-factly, what they knew and what they didn’t. Sometimes they invited guests, such as a psychologist who spoke about how to talk to kids about the pandemic. On occasion, they warned about misinformation—for instance, the potentially fatal consequences of attempting to fight the virus by drinking bleach. Three-quarters of Icelanders tuned in at some point. Reynisson, Guðnason, and Möller became so well known that they were referred to simply as the “trio,” or the “tripod,” or, as one person put it to me, the “holy trinity.”

 

 

[Anastasis 23469]

Iceland had less than half the population of Austin proper. 

[Brisketexan 105117]

Iceland had less than half the population of Austin proper. 

Yeah, but one of them is Bjork, so, maybe it’s a wash.

[InkaUtexas 25918]

20 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Iceland had less than half the population of Austin proper. 

And it is an island. Same as NZ. They can say nope, you ain't going to come in. 

[High Plains Drifter 11046]

 

not one of the four bullets I posted have anything to do with being either an island or having a small population.

 

Did either of you assholes read the fucking article?

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19101]

I posted this Bloomberg article in the non politics thread.  Now, I am going to comment here.  From Lina Hidalgo herself:

Quote

“We may be approaching the precipice of a disaster,” said Hidalgo, the highest-ranking county executive. “It’s out of hand right now. The good news is it’s not severe out of hand.”

I believe that Hidalgo and Turner are playing politics (and Hidalgo is using hyperbole), and I feel that certain politicians have lost sight of what the lockdowns were meant to do (EASE PRESSURE ON HOSPITALS).  You are not going to STOP this fucking virus.  Further, it seems like a part of the jump in cases yesterday (312 total), was because of a backlog in data (or at least per what I saw the City of Houston announce).  

I had a bad feeling about Lina when she was elected.  Glad to see she is proving me right.

Edited June 12, 2020 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[BradInATX 9208]

 

 

 

 

I posted this Bloomberg article in the non politics thread.  Now, I am going to comment here.  From Lina Hidalgo herself:

“We may be approaching the precipice of a disaster,” said Hidalgo, the highest-ranking county executive. “It’s out of hand right now. The good news is it’s not severe out of hand.”

 

 

Even if you don't buy the data on cases, Houston has had a massive spike in hospital admits. They could be in trouble. Click bait article headline but the article and the politicians aren't wrong in the notion that Houston has a problem.

 

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19101]

9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even if you don't buy the data on cases, Houston has had a massive spike in hospital admits. They could be in trouble. Click bait article headline but the article and the politicians aren't wrong in the notion that Houston has a problem.

 

 

 

Then why not point to the hospitalization numbers rather than positive cases?  Also, I think there needs to be more focus on demographics of those hospitalized.  Are they all of a certain age group?  Are they folks with pre-existing conditions?  

Again, rather than calling for mass lockdowns, there should be something more pointed.  Use the fucking data.  Don't just freak out and shut everything back down.

Edited June 12, 2020 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[BradInATX 9208]

Then why not point to the hospitalization numbers rather than positive cases?  

I agree. The article should have. It also should point out that Texas' percentage of tests positive number is going up fast meaning the uptick in cases probably isn't just a function of more testing. It's a bad, low effort article.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19101]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I agree. The article should have. It also should point out that Texas' percentage of tests positive number is going up fast meaning the uptick in cases probably isn't just a function of more testing. It's a bad, low effort article.

Feel free to post that data.  

[Sawbonz 27548]

8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Untreated plague has a mortality rate of 60 - 100%. Even treated w antibiotics and supportive care it’s up to 30%. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Check the past few pages of the Texas re-opening thread. Good discussion in there.

[safe sex 11720]

12 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

Based on what you've seen outside of necessities like a grocery store where would you set foot in?

Not many places tbh. Since quarantine started, I haven't been anywhere other than grocery stores, gas stations, and a private nail studio (where I wore my personal respirator for 3.5 hours because I'm a bougie bitch who still needs her nails done). 

Believe me, I'm dying to eat in a restaurant, go to a movie, spend time with friends, etc., but when you spend time taking care of people who are your age or younger and who are slowly dying on ventilators, it really brings the danger into relief. And yes, most of our intubated COVIDs are middle-aged/seniors, but most isn't all.

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

If a second wave happens, It’s going to be interesting to see how the pro-open up people blame the protestors. They advocated for everything to open up, no masks, but are anti-protest. It’s going to be a fine line. I’m sure they idiots will say “we wanted to open up to save our economy, not loot stuff”. But what about peaceful protests? That’s still mass gatherings. “I wanted to open up but do it safely, we didn’t mean mass gathering”. But what about churches? Trump and all the open up people kept pushing for churches to open up. 
 

I can’t wait for the spin 

[kevwun 15781]

There won't be a 2nd wave because the 1st wave never stopped.  This bitch is running through us until it burns itself out or a vaccine is developed.

[DDD Dad 14338]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I can’t wait for the spin 

No need to wait.  One need only peruse the DT thread.

[triplehorn 2664]

16 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I watched spies like us a few times. Does that count. 
 

Makes perfect sense.  It's foolish by now, but I still try to take seriously part of what you say in this subject.  I can let go of that now, not because you're not being serious or not, but because there's no first hand experience to relate. 

Science is data and math.  Medicine is that plus relationships.  When someone care for expresses to your face intense fears for their life when there are no proven options, you have a conversation about things that may or may not work and form a mutual understanding around difficult unknowns.  That's where we are with Covid-19.  Right now, there are over 50 countries formally employing the use HCQ + AZ.  Globally, it is the the most used pharmacologic intervention to treat Covid.  Even though RCTs are gradually appearing, thousands of physicians in the trenches around the world and in the US have been using this intervention and are observing some benefit when used in specific ways, or at a minimum, basic safety in the absence of benefit to justify going forward.  RCTs may ultimately show no benefit in any context.  But you calling it "quackery" is the height of insensitivity and arrogance.  Or considering how far you've drifted out of your lane, maybe it's not insensitivity and arrogance, Dr. Rosenpenis.

 

[Pig Bellmont 8715]

You’d think with rising case data in 21 states the federal government would endorse uniform safety measures like mask wearing. The president can’t be bothered

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

This is a master class in stupidity b/c it was obvious what was going to happen, based on you know, a basic understanding of science.  The powers that be saw the worst case scenario and said “fuck it”, we need to sell this worthless shit and win an election. Get r done! Capitalism at its psychopathic worst. MAGA! 

[jimmyjazz 45913]

Any hot tips where one can purchase legitimate N95 masks?  Rough approximations thereof that weren't made in converted slaughterhouses?  Slightly effective surgical masks?  Bandanas?
 

I get the feeling the N95 mask I've baked about 6 times is about as effective as a Kleenex at this point.  I almost never wear it because I never go anywhere that isn't curbside "put it in my trunk" (dear Lord) pickup.  But, it's obvious this thing is gonna hang around for a long time and I need to protect my family.  They are going stir crazy and it's driving me nuts trying to dampen the urge to meet a friend at the lake, etc.  (Honestly, that's probably fairly low risk, but still.)

[RomaVicta 29907]

On 6/11/2020 at 7:52 AM, trauma babe said:

I won't be setting foot in a Buccee's for the next year, easily.

On our recent long round trip to New Hampshire, I treated gasoline stops like they were Chernobyl. Gloves and mask. I figured anything associated with the gas pump was akin to plutonium. 

As I wrote in another post, the precautions observed by others decreased day by day as we travelled. You'd think the whole thing was over instead of re-igniting.

What a weird plague. It's all so removed from view, that it's hard to blame people for not being more cautious. Throw in a lying, malevolent administration, and you get even more confusion and disengagement.

[kevwun 15781]

I think small outside gatherings are fine.  It's being inside with large groups of people that you want to avoid.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

Just saw Kudlow full on deny that we are seeing spikes right now.  Just flat said it wasn't true.  I mean, wow.

[Wanker Bob 379]

2 hours ago, trauma babe said:

Not many places tbh. Since quarantine started, I haven't been anywhere other than grocery stores, gas stations, and a private nail studio (where I wore my personal respirator for 3.5 hours because I'm a bougie bitch who still needs her nails done). 

Believe me, I'm dying to eat in a restaurant, go to a movie, spend time with friends, etc., but when you spend time taking care of people who are your age or younger and who are slowly dying on ventilators, it really brings the danger into relief. And yes, most of our intubated COVIDs are middle-aged/seniors, but most isn't all.

 

This is what I was telling my wife. She's predicably feeling very stir crazy and seeing social media of her friends going out and I don't think I'll be able to convince her of the danger much longer. I tried to explain that there are over 40 million people in the state and this thing is slowly burning through people but since our individual spheres of influence are so miniscule in comparison to the population it's very probable we won't know people who are getting extremely sick and/or dying yet. But it's out there and happening. And people who work directly with the patients are seeing the effects of being the unlucky ones who's genetics/conditions meant they lost the covid Russian roulette. 

With everything opening and social media making it impossible to fully isolate yourself from society it was going to be virtually impossible to resist social activities long term for people who aren't directly impacted by the virus. 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[Dnaguy 11951]

14 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

 

 

[RomaVicta 29907]

On 6/11/2020 at 9:15 AM, Mrs Whiggins said:

That's really sad. Looking back, hard to believe that the first CDC telecalls by Nancy Messonier (remember her?) were about four months ago. Seems like years ago.

 

 

Someone call Jared K and whoever that lead task force guy and tell them to get on this. Who was that lead guy again? Oh yeah, the Vice President. I'm sure when he's done photo-opping w/o a mask he'll be right there:

 

This is war time profiteering and graft plain and simple. While we pat ourselves on the back for our brilliant capitalist system, this has always been a stinking downside of it.

Anybody who made a dime marketing these as PPE should be frog marched up the jail steps, held without bond, prosecuted to the full extent of the law with extreme prejudice in cases where persons suffered or died due to use of this equipment.

This perfectly ties into Sanders' speech above. A lot of sad piano music and corporations promising to be there for us is reduced to laughable shit in the face of this.

Unrestrained capitalism protected by government is rapine. 

We didn't start with regulatory agencies, they were made necessary by the above reality.

No mercy to Jared and all the henchmen rattling their coins while patients and health care professionals suffer and die. If I believed in God or gods, I'd pray that the Furies pursue these scoundrels for the rest of their days.

[RomaVicta 29907]

On 6/11/2020 at 10:35 AM, RPM said:

Making America Great Again!

I'd love to see Donald put in a cell with Al Capone. This image is an insult to Capone.

[RomaVicta 29907]

On 6/11/2020 at 10:40 AM, Pig Bellmont said:

Then fired the IG and put a White House attorney with no prior IG experience in the oversight role

America responds.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5112]

44 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Just saw Kudlow full on deny that we are seeing spikes right now.  Just flat said it wasn't true.  I mean, wow.

He also said there's no such thing as systemic racism, so you already knew he had no credibility.

[elfenix 34238]

5 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

You are not going to STOP this fucking virus.

well, the US isn't, because we're ungovernable.  but yes, it can be stopped, and with proper measures taken (such as what iceland is doing, what new zealand is doing, what singapore is doing, and yes, even japan and SK and probably even china are doing because even the people who hate the government there aren't going to refuse out of spite), only a small fraction of people have to get it. 

work your way through this page, it explains how the cumulative effect of countermeasures smashes the R value and lets us get to a vaccine (which may even have to be annual) without everyone getting this thing.

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

Edited June 12, 2020 by elfenix

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

On our recent long round trip to New Hampshire

 

Did you happen to drive a propane truck?

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

6 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I posted this Bloomberg article in the non politics thread.  Now, I am going to comment here.  From Lina Hidalgo herself:

I believe that Hidalgo and Turner are playing politics (and Hidalgo is using hyperbole), and I feel that certain politicians have lost sight of what the lockdowns were meant to do (EASE PRESSURE ON HOSPITALS).  You are not going to STOP this fucking virus.  Further, it seems like a part of the jump in cases yesterday (312 total), was because of a backlog in data (or at least per what I saw the City of Houston announce).  

I had a bad feeling about Lina when she was elected.  Glad to see she is proving me right.

 

I don't know who she is as I don't follow Houston politics.  You could be right or wrong about her, makes me no difference.

But here's a reuters article I happened to be reading that has the same quote from her.  However, it puts a different paragraph in front of it that  gives it a different context:

 

Quote

In about half a dozen U.S. states including Texas and Arizona, the number of coronavirus patients filling hospital beds is rising, fanning concerns that the reopening of the U.S. economy may unleash a second wave of infections. Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Oregon and Nebraska all had a record number of new cases on Thursday.

“I want the reopening to be successful,” Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, the top executive for the county that encompasses Houston, Texas, told reporters. “But I’m growing increasingly concerned that we may be approaching the precipice of a disaster.”

 

Since you agree that easing pressure on hospitals is the goal, it makes her concern about rising hospitalization rates to me sound reasonable.

 

 

Edited June 12, 2020 by MC Fresh Breath

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

This is war time profiteering and graft plain and simple. While we pat ourselves on the back for our brilliant capitalist system, this has always been a stinking downside of it.

Anybody who made a dime marketing these as PPE should be frog marched up the jail steps, held without bond, prosecuted to the full extent of the law with extreme prejudice in cases where persons suffered or died due to use of this equipment.

Not only the PPE profits, but the bailout dollars released w/o oversight. Sometimes I believe  Andrew Carnegie is ghost-like wandering around saying  *"Guys, I did all this and more before it was made illegal, and eventually gave away a lot of money so that history would be kind and it worked." If these folks have made that bargain with their souls, I hope their spirits are forever tortured, or as you put it "hounded by the Furies."

 

*His actual quote was "…when I go to trial for the things done on earth, I think I’ll get a verdict of “Not Guilty” through my efforts to make the earth a little better than I found it.”

[Anastasis 23469]

2 hours ago, triplehorn said:

When someone care for expresses to your face intense fears for their life when there are no proven options, you have a conversation about things that may or may not work and form a mutual understanding around difficult unknowns.  That's where we are with Covid-19. 

I am trying to recall where "muh feels" ranks in the levels of evidence hierarchy.  This is not where we are with HCQ in treatment for COVID.  That is where we were about 3 months ago.  Since then we have had multiple negative trials read out, covering both acute treatment of hospitalized patients and post-exposure prophylaxis. We have US-based secondary data, with no signals being observed. The early reports and indications just haven't held up to scrutiny. I haven't quite figured your dogmatic clinging to HCQ. I assume that it comes from a good place, even if it does not portray an evidence-based posture. 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Anastasis

[kevwun 15781]

I don't think it's nefarious in his case, he just wants an effective treatment that will make it go away and has settled on HCQ being the answer to all our prayers.

[4th&Five 41527]