CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

20 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Modi doesn't give a shit. That's how. Is India more densely populated than SK?

Prolly not but it's light years ahead in terms of infrastructure and cleanliness.

[cactusflinthead 27627]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Prolly not but it's light years ahead in terms of infrastructure and cleanliness.

True. Brazil has similar problems. 

Wondering which backwater areas with poor infrastructure and a decided lack of clean have done passably well.

[Js1 87182]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

True. Brazil has similar problems. 

Wondering which backwater areas with poor infrastructure and a decided lack of clean have done passably well.

Texas? 🤣

[HenryJames 67360]

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

wow

[Neonmoon 38130]

This guy used to be in a supervisor position 

 

[HenryJames 67360]

 

[jimmyjazz 47197]

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

This guy used to be in a supervisor position 

 

Wait, now millions of Americans have died from Covid?  I thought it was mostly like a mild flu and that death certificates were being altered to show Covid instead of cancer, diabetes, etc.

Man, the science just turns on a dime.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Two more weeks and Bannon begins the trial for his fundraising scheme charges.

[HenryJames 67360]

 

[Anastasis 23718]

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-emergency-use

 

[lmao 178]

On 5/9/2021 at 8:52 AM, Aqua Buddha said:

Another factor is 80% of India is, quite frankly, a third world country insofar as infrastructure and cleanliness.  They're also and incredibly dense population.  The mystery is how it took them this long to get where they are now.

Is there an answer to why it took so long? What were they doing different in the first year of this thing?

[PsychMike 1553]

True story, my 13 year old son was in the Pfizer study. My wife and I asked him if he was interested in being in the study last December but we didn't put any pressure on him. He decided to participate because he wanted to help the community. Proud parenting moment.

Of course, with randomization and blinding, we don't know if he received the active vaccine or sham placebo injection. He did have a modest reaction to it, as he felt sick and ran a low grade fever. He believed he got the real thing. But I know that there is such thing as a "nocebo effect," so I wasn't completely convinced.

Fast forward to last Thursday, he can't go to school because his entire class is quarantined due to a "staff member" who was symptomatic with +Covid test. They weren't allowed can't come back for 10 days. It caused my son to miss 2 events where he was slated to receive awards and also miss his flag football game last weekend. He got tested today and the result is negative, so he can play this weekend. If we knew for sure he received the active vaccine he would've been fine to play.

Now, the announcement of EUA expansion of the Pfizer vaccine to his age group, thanks in part to my son wanting to help the community. As proud as I am, I'm still pissed off at the staff member who could've avoided this BS if he/she cared about the community as much as my son does. Am I wrong to feel this way?

PS We expect that they will unblind the study very soon. According to the study nurse, if he got placebo, he will be among the very first in line to get the real thing.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

7 minutes ago, PsychMike said:

True story, my 13 year old son was in the Pfizer study. My wife and I asked him if he was interested in being in the study last December but we didn't put any pressure on him. He decided to participate because he wanted to help the community. Proud parenting moment.

Of course, with randomization and blinding, we don't know if he received the active vaccine or sham placebo injection. He did have a modest reaction to it, as he felt sick and ran a low grade fever. He believed he got the real thing. But I know that there is such thing as a "nocebo effect," so I wasn't completely convinced.

Fast forward to last Thursday, he can't go to school because his entire class is quarantined due to a "staff member" who was symptomatic with +Covid test. They weren't allowed can't come back for 10 days. It caused my son to miss 2 events where he was slated to receive awards and also miss his flag football game last weekend. He got tested today and the result is negative, so he can play this weekend. If we knew for sure he received the active vaccine he would've been fine to play.

Now, the announcement of EUA expansion of the Pfizer vaccine to his age group, thanks in part to my son wanting to help the community. As proud as I am, I'm still pissed off at the staff member who could've avoided this BS if he/she cared about the community as much as my son does. Am I wrong to feel this way?

PS We expect that they will unblind the study very soon. According to the study nurse, if he got placebo, he will be among the very first in line to get the real thing.

/csb

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

Listened to the "The Daily" podcast from today.  It's about vaccine hesitancy among white, rural, Republican evangelicals and they profiled a doctor in East Tennessee.  He has a serious case of covid early on and has been a vocal proponent of vaccines and to take covid seriously.  Had a practice in a small town and knew most of his patients personally.

The listened in while he talked to one couple in particular.  They were in their 70's, not anti-vax, and knew 11 people that died from covid, so they took it seriously.  Doctor asked them why they were hesitant and the husband said the vaccine had been "politicized."  He then launched into conspiracy theories about aborted fetuses, micro chips, and hydroxy.  (The irony was obviously lost on him.)  Doctor patiently talked him through all of his concerns and the couple still decided against it.  

Moral of the story is that these rural Trumpkins who aren't taking aren't going to take it and we need to move on.  Covid may churn for awhile but it will be a largely white, rural disease.

[Js1 87182]

I read a recap of that discussion.  Made my blood boil 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

17 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Listened to the "The Daily" podcast from today.  It's about vaccine hesitancy among white, rural, Republican evangelicals and they profiled a doctor in East Tennessee.  He has a serious case of covid early on and has been a vocal proponent of vaccines and to take covid seriously.  Had a practice in a small town and knew most of his patients personally.

The listened in while he talked to one couple in particular.  They were in their 70's, not anti-vax, and knew 11 people that died from covid, so they took it seriously.  Doctor asked them why they were hesitant and the husband said the vaccine had been "politicized."  He then launched into conspiracy theories about aborted fetuses, micro chips, and hydroxy.  (The irony was obviously lost on him.)  Doctor patiently talked him through all of his concerns and the couple still decided against it.  

Moral of the story is that these rural Trumpkins who aren't taking aren't going to take it and we need to move on.  Covid may churn for awhile but it will be a largely white, rural disease.

My initial reaction is hey you make your own bed.  Then I realize their bed was made by certain media (and their my pillows), and the smallpox blankets they were fed affect more than just them.  Too bad stupid people don’t only kill themselves.  

[JimmyJames 12271]

25 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Listened to the "The Daily" podcast from today.  It's about vaccine hesitancy among white, rural, Republican evangelicals and they profiled a doctor in East Tennessee.  He has a serious case of covid early on and has been a vocal proponent of vaccines and to take covid seriously.  Had a practice in a small town and knew most of his patients personally.

The listened in while he talked to one couple in particular.  They were in their 70's, not anti-vax, and knew 11 people that died from covid, so they took it seriously.  Doctor asked them why they were hesitant and the husband said the vaccine had been "politicized."  He then launched into conspiracy theories about aborted fetuses, micro chips, and hydroxy.  (The irony was obviously lost on him.)  Doctor patiently talked him through all of his concerns and the couple still decided against it.  

Moral of the story is that these rural Trumpkins who aren't taking aren't going to take it and we need to move on.  Covid may churn for awhile but it will be a largely white, rural disease.

We will pass one million dead in America because of COVID  because people like this believe the lies their evil Republican leaders tell them.

Edited May 10, 2021 by JimmyJames

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

2 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

My initial reaction is hey you make your own bed.  Then I realize their bed was made by certain media (and their my pillows), and the smallpox blankets they were fed affect more than just them.  Too bad stupid people don’t only kill themselves.  

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

We need to move on from these people and open everything back up 100%.  

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

Just now, JimmyJames said:

We will pass one million dead in America because of COVID people like this believe the lies their evil Republican leaders tell them.

And they'll be almost 100% of the deaths going forward and that's fine.

[WBT 20975]

The vaccination rates by race and for urban vs suburban vs rural don't show that yet.

But we may be headed there.  This is about a month old now

Quote

• The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor took a deep dive into how the coronavirus pandemic has impacted rural communities in the U.S. including an analysis of the vaccine intentions of rural residents. Based on interviews of 1,001 adults living in rural America, the Monitor finds four in ten (39%) saying they have already gotten at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, larger than the shares of adults living in urban or suburban areas who say the same (31% each). The Monitor results suggest there are many reasons why rural communities may so far be outpacing suburban and urban areas in vaccination rates, including the fact that rural residents are more likely than urban and suburban residents to say their community has enough vaccination locations and vaccine supply.
• While rural residents have outpaced suburban and urban residents in early self-reported uptake of COVID-19 vaccines, fewer rural residents compared to urban and suburban residents say they are planning or considering getting vaccinated. Three in ten rural residents say they will get vaccinated as soon as possible (16%) or are waiting to see how it is working for other people (15%), compared to about half of urban and suburban residents who say the same. Three in ten rural residents say they will either “definitely not” get vaccinated or will only do so if required, and few unvaccinated rural residents (11%) say they have tried to get an appointment. These results suggest that vaccination uptake in rural America may start lagging behind urban and suburban areas.

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by WBT

[Neonmoon 38130]

2 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

We will pass one million dead in America because of COVID  because people like this believe the lies their evil Republican leaders tell them.

I doubt we get near that. I will be surprised if we get over 650 unless new variants break more vaccine barriers. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if more and more studies reveal correlation of long term effects of covid. 

[Anastasis 23718]

31 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I doubt we get near that. I will be surprised if we get over 650 unless new variants break more vaccine barriers. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if more and more studies reveal correlation of long term effects of covid. 

Agree. We don't near 1MM at this point at any time in 2021 through 2022 unless there is a break out event, which is exceedingly unlikely.

[Anastasis 23718]

33 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if more and more studies reveal correlation of long term effects of covid. 

On the PASC issue, I think that we are going to have some real shit to deal with downstream. 

[jimmyjazz 47197]

Yeah, we're currently losing "only" 650 Americans each day to covid.  Annualized, that's 240K.  Woo.  Maybe we'll be fortunate and it will dial back further.

[Anastasis 23718]

14 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, we're currently losing "only" 650 Americans each day to covid.  Annualized, that's 240K.  Woo.  Maybe we'll be fortunate and it will dial back further.

Epidemiology is hard. Epidemic has demonstrated such.  But we are on the downslope man. Vaccines are real. 

Edited May 11, 2021 by Anastasis

[Brisketexan 106898]

Epidemiology is hard. Epidemic has demonstrated such.  But we are on the downslope man. Vaccines are real. 

As is vaccine refusal and a stall in our progress because of it. Victory is literally within our grasp, and we’re gonna hurr durr our way to continued defeat. Because we live in the stupidest timeline.

[Anastasis 23718]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Victory is literally within our grasp, and we’re gonna hurr durr our way to continued defeat. 

 

Happy to define whatever objective measures you wish around victory and defeat and lay some chalk. We're crawling out of the hole whether you care to or not. 

 

[Brisketexan 106898]

 
Happy to define whatever objective measures you wish around victory and defeat and lay some chalk. We're crawling out of the hole whether you care to or not. 
 

We’ll stall on our percentage of vaccinated so that COVID continues to be transmitted regularly and steadily - at a lower rate, but still steadily - instead of being reduced to something that just has minor periodic flare ups.

For example, 2022, we’ll still have annual deaths around six figures, when we could have knocked it down to something like 10k.

[Anastasis 23718]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

For example, 2022, we’ll still have annual deaths around six figures, when we could have knocked it down to something like 10k.

I'll take the under.  Name your wager. 

[Beau Vine 55865]

[DDD Dad 14649]

Agree. We don't near 1MM at this point at any time in 2021 through 2022 unless there is a break out event, which is exceedingly unlikely.

I thought I heard across the Sunday morning shows a new study that contends we have undercounted deaths by nearly half, with actual deaths in the 900K range. Not sure how accurate (if at all) that may be.

[Anastasis 23718]

2 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I thought I heard across the Sunday morning shows a new study that contends we have undercounted deaths by nearly half, with actual deaths in the 900K range. Not sure how accurate (if at all) that may be.

Any action going to have to be based on NDI records. 

[Hookah Horns 3089]

PSA: If you find yourself placing bets on the number of covid deaths with strangers on the internet, you may have a gambling problem. 

[Hookah Horns 3089]

6 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Moral of the story is that these rural Trumpkins who aren't taking aren't going to take it and we need to move on.  Covid may churn for awhile but it will be a largely white, rural disease.

Unless and until new variants arise which evade the vaccines, that is. 

These ignorant, self centered assholes aren't only endangering themselves. 

[The Dog 44861]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Agree. We don't near 1MM at this point at any time in 2021 through 2022 unless there is a break out event, which is exceedingly unlikely.

The factor I'd be concerned with is making better inroads with black and hispanic communities in major cities. IMHO that's the biggest risk of more outbreaks as their vaccination rates are lagging. Texas is actually making inroads with the hispanic demographic but it needs to continue to improve.

Here's a good tracker showing the disparity: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/us-vaccine-demographics.html

IMHO this is what everyone needs to be talking about rather than the reluctance of Trumpy whites in the sticks.

[Okie State 3889]

I thought I heard across the Sunday morning shows a new study that contends we have undercounted deaths by nearly half, with actual deaths in the 900K range. Not sure how accurate (if at all) that may be.

False. Guy in line at Spec's last week assured us that there have been almost zero Covid deaths and the hospitals only count them as such for more money.

[Guest Lobo]

6 hours ago, The Dog said:

The factor I'd be concerned with is making better inroads with black and hispanic communities in major cities. IMHO that's the biggest risk of more outbreaks as their vaccination rates are lagging. Texas is actually making inroads with the hispanic demographic but it needs to continue to improve.

Here's a good tracker showing the disparity: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/us-vaccine-demographics.html

IMHO this is what everyone needs to be talking about rather than the reluctance of Trumpy whites in the sticks.

Good point.  We have a chance to focus on saving good people in vulnerable populations and underserved communities of color.  That's where the focus should turn.  If we lose some science-denying Trumpers in exurbs along the way.........................oops.

[Anastasis 23718]

6 hours ago, Hookah Horns said:

PSA: If you find yourself placing bets on the number of covid deaths with strangers on the internet, you may have a gambling problem. 

But the under reflects optimism, which makes it less morbid. And if you are concerned about degeneracy, I usually make the losing end of my internet bets square up by making a donation to mobile loaves and fishes, so in addition to getting a tax deduction, you get to feel good about being a degenerate. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19305]

Good point.  We have a chance to focus on saving good people in vulnerable populations and underserved communities of color.  That's where the focus should turn.  If we lose some science-denying Trumpers in exurbs along the way.........................oops.

Exactly. Honestly, we are probably better off without them.

[Anastasis 23718]

6 hours ago, The Dog said:

The factor I'd be concerned with is making better inroads with black and hispanic communities in major cities. IMHO that's the biggest risk of more outbreaks as their vaccination rates are lagging.

All of this. You can’t reason with an unreasonable anti covaxxer. It’s like banging your head against a garbage bin. Deal with issues related to access and health beliefs that you can actually move the needle on with some outreach. 

[Anastasis 23718]

Topol has gone full on sunshine pumper...these are the vibes. 

 

 

 

 

[GopherRock 1773]

11 hours ago, WBT said:

The vaccination rates by race and for urban vs suburban vs rural don't show that yet.

But we may be headed there.  This is about a month old now

 

 

Not surprised to see Todd and Benton Counties in the Trumpy and vaccine-resistant quadrant. 

[4th&Five 42005]

Who’s had luck getting an appointment for their 12-15yo kids? Everyone seems to be waiting until Wednesday to open it up. 

[DDD Dad 14649]

9 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Who’s had luck getting an appointment for their 12-15yo kids? Everyone seems to be waiting until Wednesday to open it up. 

Appointments are still necessary?  I had assumed pretty much everywhere in TX was walk-up now.

[DDD Dad 14649]

10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Any action going to have to be based on NDI records. 

Here's the study, btw.

University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Quote

In the IHME estimation of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to date, we have used officially reported COVID-19 deaths for nearly all locations. As of today, we are switching to a new approach that relies on the estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19. There are several reasons that have led us to adopt this new approach. These reasons include the fact that testing capacity varies markedly across countries and within countries over time, which means that the reported COVID-19 deaths as a proportion of all deaths due to COVID-19 also vary markedly across countries and within countries over time. In addition, in many high-income countries, deaths from COVID-19 in older individuals, especially in long-term care facilities, went unrecorded in the first few months of the pandemic. In other countries, such as Ecuador, Peru, and the Russian Federation, the discrepancy between reported deaths and analyses of death rates compared to expected death rates, sometimes referred to as “excess mortality,” suggests that the total COVID-19 death rate is many multiples larger than official reports. Estimating the total COVID-19 death rate is important both for modeling the transmission dynamics of the disease to make better forecasts, and also for understanding the drivers of larger and smaller epidemics across different countries.

Our approach to estimating the total COVID-19 death rate is based on measurement of the excess death rate during the pandemic week by week compared to what would have been expected based on past trends and seasonality. However, the excess death rate does not equal the total COVID-19 death rate. Excess mortality is influenced by six drivers of all-cause mortality that relate to the pandemic and the social distancing mandates that came with the pandemic. These six drivers are: a) the total COVID-19 death rate, that is, all deaths directly related to COVID-19 infection; b) the increase in mortality due to needed health care being delayed or deferred during the pandemic; c) the increase in mortality due to increases in mental health disorders including depression, increased alcohol use, and increased opioid use; d) the reduction in mortality due to decreases in injuries because of general reductions in mobility associated with social distancing mandates; e) the reductions in mortality due to reduced transmission of other viruses, most notably influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and measles; and f) the reductions in mortality due to some chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease, that occur when frail individuals who would have died from these conditions died earlier from COVID-19 instead. To correctly estimate the total COVID-19 mortality, we need to take into account all six of these drivers of change in mortality that have happened since the onset of the pandemic.

Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate. In other words, we estimate excess mortality in all locations with sufficient data. Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate the fraction of excess mortality that is from total COVID-19 deaths as opposed to the five other drivers that influence excess mortality. Third, we build a statistical model that predicts the weekly ratio of total COVID-19 deaths to reported COVID-19 deaths based on covariates and spatial effects. Fourth, we use this statistical relationship to predict the ratio of total to reported COVID-19 deaths in places without data on total COVID-19 deaths and then multiply the reported COVID-19 deaths by this ratio to generate estimates of total COVID-19 deaths for all locations.

 

[4th&Five 42005]

8 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Appointments are still necessary?  I had assumed pretty much everywhere in TX was walk-up now.

Hoping that’s the case even with new age limits. Just in a bit of a time crunch to get her both shots before we go on vacation. It will also have to be Pfizer, so that limits the options a bit. 

Edited May 11, 2021 by 4th&Five

[kevwun 16438]

When I was last hunting shots for some friends, there were a bunch pfizer appointments available at HEB's in San Antonio and Corpus.

[gmr548 16701]

The factor I'd be concerned with is making better inroads with black and hispanic communities in major cities. IMHO that's the biggest risk of more outbreaks as their vaccination rates are lagging. Texas is actually making inroads with the hispanic demographic but it needs to continue to improve.
Here's a good tracker showing the disparity: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/us-vaccine-demographics.html
IMHO this is what everyone needs to be talking about rather than the reluctance of Trumpy whites in the sticks.

Yep. These folks have shown to actually be persuadable if it isn’t a problem if access in the first place. You’re never going to get the Trumper in Giddings to get vaccinated.

[RPM 26628]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

You’re never going to get the Trumper in Giddings to get vaccinated.

Tell them it's Trump's secret blend but Biden is covering it up. They will stand in line for hours.