CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk

[horn4life 3755]

Checking back in post confidence building press conference. First had Trump simply read the notes and not decided he needed a "czar" for a 15 person problem, I think it would have been more a reflection of confidence in the "we got this" mentality. Naming Pence as Czar to try and somehow make this thing Pence's "fault" and not Trump's was a truly, truly stupid move. Mainly because is shows that you believe the problem is a lot worse than Trump believes and he shows his cards of fear. So no confidence building at all from the press conference. 

Trump's instinct to try and hang any negative outcomes on underlings to appear to avoid responsibility he has used his entire life isn't going to work here.  It's gonna be Trump's mess, and the markets are gonna keep tanking.  He tried to hand the boat anchor to Mike Pence hoping he could swim away from the problem, but that instinct of self preservation actually made the situation worse IMHO. Appointing Pence did absolutely zero from a confidence building perspective.  ANYONE disagree with this assessment of Pence as Czar?

Should have stuck with the faces of professionals, and an air of confidence.

[pyrohornIII 4809]

7 hours ago, DixonHur said:

We're gonna pray the disease away

I imagine Pence already has this guy on board:

Tampa pastor who claimed to cure Zika now says he will cure Florida of coronavirus

Quote

Rodney Howard-Browne — a conservative preacher, peddler of absolute insane conspiracy theories, and an evangelical leader who prayed over Trump in the Oval Office — claims that he cleansed Florida of Zika and says he now plans to do the same with the coronavirus.

In a video first noticed by Right Wing Watch, Howard-Browne says that he “cursed” Zika in the name of Jesus, and this is something he has the power to do in regards to the coronavirus, but just for Florida and nowhere else on Earth.

“We are doing the same thing with the coronavirus,” says Howard-Browne.” We do not need it on these shores, and somebody said ‘Well, what about the rest of the world?’ I mean, I can’t be responsible for every city, or whatever.”

Right-wing pastor Rodney Howard-Browne cleansed Florida of the Zika Virus and now intends to do the same for the coronavirus ... but only for America because obviously he can't be responsible for the entire world. pic.twitter.com/unlu3y0lkq

— Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) February 26, 2020

The video was first posted to the pastor’s Periscope account on Feb. 24.

This isn’t the first time Howard-Brown, who says his congregation at The River Tampa Bay Church is “supernatural,” has claimed to have saved mankind. At a revival event in Washington D.C. in July of 2018, Howard-Brown said he “saved” America by issuing a “restraining order on the Antichrist.”

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/02/26/tampa-pastor-who-claimed-to-cure-zika-now-says-he-will-cure-florida-of-coronavirus

[workswithseed 2035]

Florida gonna Florida.

[TwiceHorn 31266]

It does kind of appear that Trumpy is going to make something that he could legitimately claim wasn't his fault.  His fault.

Hahahaha.

[mchookem 16200]

we're hitting height of election season, campaign events, conventions, pressing palms with the people, selfie lines, etc...

majority of the candidates are over 70 (including Trump). what are the chances some of them fall to this thing 😕

[DixonHur 11181]

4 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

I imagine Pence already has this guy on board:

Tampa pastor who claimed to cure Zika now says he will cure Florida of coronavirus

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/02/26/tampa-pastor-who-claimed-to-cure-zika-now-says-he-will-cure-florida-of-coronavirus

Doesn't need him...Pence has a direct line to the Big Guy upstairs already...why go through a middleman?

[horn4life 3755]

Actually I just realized how this will work in Trumps favor. Put the cities on lockdown and only let rural voters, vote in the Presidential election. Or just push the election back because of the crisis... forever.....

[Bama Chick 28596]

pic? couldn't find it online besides the two videos on this page but they don't seem to be talking about ebola.

[workswithseed 2035]

3 minutes ago, mchookem said:

we're hitting height of election season, campaign events, conventions, pressing palms with the people, selfie lines, etc...

majority of the candidates are over 70 (including Trump). what are the chances some of them fall to this thing 😕

Pete may live, also Tulsi is still in right?

[BrickHorn 18186]

57 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:

Would be amazing if a denial of basic facts and science is what took these clowns down.

Dems should be messaging the shit out of this, and putting it in the same bite-sized format Trump uses to sway his army of nitwits.  Keep it simple and to the point.  This is the Trump Plague.  It is causing the Trump Crash of the markets.  Which will lead to the Trump Recession.  

[DigglerontheHoof 21054]

10 minutes ago, mchookem said:

we're hitting height of election season, campaign events, conventions, pressing palms with the people, selfie lines, etc...

majority of the candidates are over 70 (including Trump). what are the chances some of them fall to this thing 😕

Not to mention trump's rallies.  A bunch of boomers who think science is a libtard conspiracy all getting together to suck off trump.  Allsome. 

[Loco 3752]

5 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Dems should be messaging the shit out of this, and putting it in the same bite-sized format Trump uses to sway his army of nitwits.  Keep it simple and to the point.  This is the Trump Plague.  It is causing the Trump Crash of the markets.  Which will lead to the Trump Recession.  

Dems should be messaging that Corona is a test of your faith in Trump.  Get Corona to own the libs!

[zork 629]

For reference the first thread on Surly was started on Jan 22nd.  36 days in since then and how many deaths in the USA are to be attributed to Covid-19?  It seems like that number is zero, right?

How many deaths do you predict will be attributed to Covid-19 in another 24(incubation period is up to that after it was thought to be 14 days IIRC) days from today in the USA?  

I have no idea as I can only understand what has happened from what is reported in the news and opinion places like this. 

I will say I am gruntled so far by the actual reported results in the USA at this point.  Are there any mass hysteria videos on twitter from hospitals, or mini hysteria videos even, originating in the USA for USA cases?  I haven't heard/seen of any at this snapshot in time.  We should be seeing them soon, right?

Are people who had it from the other countries who were brought back to the USA dying yet? 

USA, USA, USA medicine!  Hopefully strong palliative care from early recognition, etc, reduces the impact here. 

Dallas county  pandemic/flu dude interviewed on DFW radio yesterday says they are monitoring and ready to act here locally if it shows up here.  He mentioned strong flu reduction/reaction techniques reportedly will work well for the  Covid-19 and they are ready as they can be.  

[Captainant 27444]

9 minutes ago, zork said:

How many deaths do you predict will be attributed to Covid-19 in another 24(incubation period is up to that after it was thought to be 14 days IIRC) days from today in the USA?  

I have no idea as I can only understand what has happened from what is reported in the news and opinion places like this. 

I will say I am gruntled so far by the actual reported results in the USA at this point.  Are there any mass hysteria videos on twitter from hospitals, or mini hysteria videos even, originating in the USA for USA cases?  I haven't heard/seen of any at this snapshot in time.  We should be seeing them soon, right?

Are people who had it from the other countries who were brought back to the USA dying yet? 

Well not to piss in your cheerios, but we did just have the first case of unknown origin in the US announced this morning. And if there is indeed a 14-day incubation period, I'd imagine the next couple of weeks are going to set the tone for the shape of how this thing is going to go.

As far as I know all of the other known cases in the US have been in CDC or military medicine centers and have been under thorough quarantine, monitoring, and medical care. So it's unlikely that any of their conditions could progress as far as severe pneumonia, which is how flu-like viruses actually kill, thanks in part to the USA! USA! USA! medicine.

It's going to get messy when it hits the public who only have a for-profit system to turn to that is structured to bleed its patients dry financially and delay their access to adequate care in a timely manner. Which wouldn't be so bad if people had savings to fall back on, but we're in a record-low period of personal savings and record-high medical expenses.

So I'm sure once the wide infection hits, everyone will get access they need in time to make a difference. Because hey, that's how things have been going so far right?

[Gil Bang 25897]

 

[TXSG8R 3360]

12 minutes ago, zork said:

For reference the first thread on Surly was started on Jan 22nd.  36 days in since then and how many deaths in the USA are to be attributed to Covid-19?  It seems like that number is zero, right?

How many deaths do you predict will be attributed to Covid-19 in another 24(incubation period is up to that after it was thought to be 14 days IIRC) days from today in the USA?  

I have no idea as I can only understand what has happened from what is reported in the news and opinion places like this. 

I will say I am gruntled so far by the actual reported results in the USA at this point.  Are there any mass hysteria videos on twitter from hospitals, or mini hysteria videos even, originating in the USA for USA cases?  I haven't heard/seen of any at this snapshot in time.  We should be seeing them soon, right?

Are people who had it from the other countries who were brought back to the USA dying yet? 

USA, USA, USA medicine!  Hopefully strong palliative care from early recognition, etc, reduces the impact here. 

Dallas county  pandemic/flu dude interviewed on DFW radio yesterday says they are monitoring and ready to act here locally if it shows up here.  He mentioned strong flu reduction/reaction techniques reportedly will work well for the  Covid-19 and they are ready as they can be.  

The biggest problems with this is the CDC hasnt been testing everyone thats sick and dying of flu like symptoms, only people that met their qualification list (travel, contact with travelers, etc) due to the shortage of testing material.  As you stated, there is also a ramp up to this that will dictate care.  ~100 known cases that we brought in under quarantine is easy for us to treat and manage.  If/when it hits major urban centers, health care centers will be overwhelmed, and care will be reduced.  The case in California will be a good litmus test for how good our health care system can handle things.  We have a patient thats positive that didnt meet the CDC criteria, so she got infected by an unknown source.  Transmission will be much harder to backtrack, so the CDC is going to have to start testing errbody in that area.  

[triplehorn 2664]

19 minutes ago, zork said:

For reference the first thread on Surly was started on Jan 22nd.  36 days in since then and how many deaths in the USA are to be attributed to Covid-19?  It seems like that number is zero, right?

How many deaths do you predict will be attributed to Covid-19 in another 24(incubation period is up to that after it was thought to be 14 days IIRC) days from today in the USA?  

I have no idea as I can only understand what has happened from what is reported in the news and opinion places like this. 

I will say I am gruntled so far by the actual reported results in the USA at this point.  Are there any mass hysteria videos on twitter from hospitals, or mini hysteria videos even, originating in the USA for USA cases?  I haven't heard/seen of any at this snapshot in time.  We should be seeing them soon, right?

Are people who had it from the other countries who were brought back to the USA dying yet? 

USA, USA, USA medicine!  Hopefully strong palliative care from early recognition, etc, reduces the impact here. 

Dallas county  pandemic/flu dude interviewed on DFW radio yesterday says they are monitoring and ready to act here locally if it shows up here.  He mentioned strong flu reduction/reaction techniques reportedly will work well for the  Covid-19 and they are ready as they can be.  

The case fatality rate so far is about 2%.  So if a third of our US population contracts it, that’s roughly 6 million deaths.  Recently, a bad influenza season in the US tops out at about 60k deaths annually.

The UC Davis case in NoCal is obviously concerning. Pt was hospitalized in two different locations over a two week period before anyone tested for covid.  Unfortunately this probably won’t be an isolated case as there is nothing in place to support aggressive high volume testing.  SoKo by comparison is launching to test 200k ppl in short order.

[zork 629]

1 minute ago, TXSG8R said:

The biggest problems with this is the CDC hasnt been testing everyone thats sick and dying of flu like symptoms, only people that met their qualification list (travel, contact with travelers, etc) due to the shortage of testing material.  As you stated, there is also a ramp up to this that will dictate care.  ~100 known cases that we brought in under quarantine is easy for us to treat and manage.  If/when it hits major urban centers, health care centers will be overwhelmed, and care will be reduced.  The case in California will be a good litmus test for how good our health care system can handle things.  We have a patient thats positive that didnt meet the CDC criteria, so she got infected by an unknown source.  Transmission will be much harder to backtrack, so the CDC is going to have to start testing errbody in that area.  

So we should be seeing mass greatly inflated flu deaths already across the places where people have flown in from sources that originated in Wuhan.  That should be fairly easy to track since according to the reports it is a 20/1 death rate, Covid-19/Flu.  March is almost here.  

Quote

Peak Month of Flu Activity
1982-1983 through 2017-2018

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

[jimmyjazz 45547]

To me, it seems likely we could face a huge bottleneck in testing, even with test kit production and reliability issues getting ironed out.  The reason why is that medical professionals will have to broaden testing guidelines from "respiratory symptoms along with travel to China or exposure to an infected person".  Once the disease is in our communities, they will have to assume ANY person demonstrating respiratory issues might have Covid-19.  Travel or known exposure can't be requirements for testing.

The stated symptoms for Covid-19 are "fever, cough, and shortness of breath".  Pretty common stuff.  If you have a cold or flu with shortness of breath, you should get tested.  That's a lot of people.

[Nivek 16853]

1 hour ago, pyrohornIII said:

I imagine Pence already has this guy on board:

Tampa pastor who claimed to cure Zika now says he will cure Florida of coronavirus

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/02/26/tampa-pastor-who-claimed-to-cure-zika-now-says-he-will-cure-florida-of-coronavirus

That's nothing, I once saved the entire world of elves, dwarves and humans from a blight.

[The Royal We 3065]

8 minutes ago, zork said:

So we should be seeing mass greatly inflated flu deaths already across the places where people have flown in from sources that originated in Wuhan.  That should be fairly easy to track since according to the reports it is a 20/1 death rate, Covid-19/Flu.  March is almost here.  

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

What exactly are you trying to argue here?  Is it that we haven't yet seen mass deaths from a virus that was first officially detected in humans ~10 weeks ago?  Yea, I guess that's technically correct although I'm not really sure how germane it is to the conversation the rest of us are having here.

[jimmyjazz 45547]

Just now, The Royal We said:

What exactly are you trying to argue here?  Is it that we haven't yet seen mass deaths from a virus that was first officially detected in humans ~10 weeks ago?  Yea, I guess that's technically correct although I'm not really sure how germane it is to the conversation the rest of us are having here.

An increase in (pseudo)flu deaths wouldn't even be noticeable for weeks.  It's one thing to assess known cases and come up with a 2%-3% mortality rate, even early on, but that's going to be a very small number of people dying in the first month or so.  As the disease begins to explode, THEN the actual raw number of deaths will become significant.

Differential equations, how do they work?

[BrickHorn 18186]

5 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

What exactly are you trying to argue here? .

It hasn’t happened yet, thus it will not happen.  

[hayden_horn 11360]

11 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

The case fatality rate so far is about 2%.  So if a third of our US population contracts it, that’s roughly 6 million deaths.  Recently, a bad influenza season in the US tops out at about 60k deaths annually.

The UC Davis case in NoCal is obviously concerning. Pt was hospitalized in two different locations over a two week period before anyone tested for covid.  Unfortunately this probably won’t be an isolated case as there is nothing in place to support aggressive high volume testing.  SoKo by comparison is launching to test 200k ppl in short order.

but that 2% is contingent on those who have died of confirmed cases, right? are we right to assume that there are a ton of wuhan cases of the coronavirus that have gone undiagnosed because of a couple of reasons: 1) asymptomatic, or 2) symptoms are really minor and seem like a cold? outside of wuhan, how many have died. we know that the 35 year old doctor whistleblower died of the disease, which is extremely alarming, but is it common amongst that age cohort?

the % of death i've seen has been low, and affecting the elderly far more acutely than everyone else. this is similar to basically any other type of malady, right?

am i whistling past the graveyard here?

[Anastasis 23393]

I think that any mortality rates coming out of China are underestimates.  I also don't think that those estimates are transferable to western medical systems. The problem is going to be if/when our medical infrastructure breaks down as the shear number of cases overwhelms the system.

[wildcat09 29231]

14 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

What exactly are you trying to argue here?  Is it that we haven't yet seen mass deaths from a virus that was first officially detected in humans ~10 weeks ago?  Yea, I guess that's technically correct although I'm not really sure how germane it is to the conversation the rest of us are having here.

He's trying to pretend it's no big deal because if it's a big deal then the administration's response is clearly derelict. Once it's a big deal he'll blame it on the media and China and the Democrats for voting not to repeal and replace Obamacare, or some other stupid shit. 

[jimmyjazz 45547]

11 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

but that 2% is contingent on those who have died of confirmed cases, right? are we right to assume that there are a ton of wuhan cases of the coronavirus that have gone undiagnosed because of a couple of reasons: 1) asymptomatic, or 2) symptoms are really minor and seem like a cold? outside of wuhan, how many have died. we know that the 35 year old doctor whistleblower died of the disease, which is extremely alarming, but is it common amongst that age cohort?

the % of death i've seen has been low, and affecting the elderly far more acutely than everyone else. this is similar to basically any other type of malady, right?

am i whistling past the graveyard here?

Can/do they test deceased patients who demonstrated symptoms?  I don't know that a diagnosis prior to death would be required to assess cause of death.  (I have no idea what Asian policies are regarding autopsies, either.)

[hayden_horn 11360]

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Can/do they test deceased patients who demonstrated symptoms?  I don't know that a diagnosis prior to death would be required to assess cause of death.  (I have no idea what Asian policies are regarding autopsies, either.)

i dunno the answer to that. 

but it seems we are seeing more cases springing up outside of china, but we are not seeing the scale of deaths. to @Anastasis's point about the overwhelming of health care systems, i again ask, outside of china, is the hospitalization situation an issue? we have people in quarantine, of course, but are they dying of the virus? 

i guess my main question: we have a death rate of 2% of known cases. what percentage of total coronavirus cases have been successfully diagnosed? we do not know that number, but we know that the number must be higher than those who have been successfully diagnosed. this would lower the death rate from the virus. and those who have died would have displayed more severe symptoms, drawing attention to themselves in the process resulting in an attempt to test them and achieving a positive.

Edited February 27, 2020 by hayden_horn

[zork 629]

11 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

What exactly are you trying to argue here?  Is it that we haven't yet seen mass deaths from a virus that was first officially detected in humans ~10 weeks ago?  Yea, I guess that's technically correct although I'm not really sure how germane it is to the conversation the rest of us are having here.

I am not a scientist.  Just a lowly econ grad now landlord.  I hear all kinds of bs about why rent can't be paid and typically just refer back to the lease terms as un-emotionally as I can while still having a heart if it, reasons, is/are germane and provable.

Maybe piss in the post/toasties or cheerios will be a great palliative damper? 

This thread will be read by many in the coming months.  If anything it could be what a dumbass zork was to not see what everyone else saw on 2-27-2020.  Or maybe occam's razor for what we have seen to this point here in the USA?  I hope what we have is the later.  It could also be about to explode like that hurricane thread for Katrina as it, relatively calmly, hit  Florida and then crossed over and butt fucked Louisiana.  And all the next year of blame/turmoil coming from that.

The US perspective is what I am focusing on since it is where I live.  I'm mainly interested in the opinions of those who respond.

 

[zork 629]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Can/do they test deceased patients who demonstrated symptoms?  I don't know that a diagnosis prior to death would be required to assess cause of death.  (I have no idea what Asian policies are regarding autopsies, either.)

Won't matter if it is even 10/1 death rate(half the reported 20-1) and the increases in "flu", aka flu and misdiagnosed Covid-19,  this year explode here in the USA(not conflating the rest of the world with the USA)  It will be clear in the coming months but it seems like it should be trickling into chaos here by now if the early people got here in mid/late January undetected for whatever reason.  Maybe we get lucky there aren't/haven't been super spreaders yet?

can't get multi-quote to work after starting another post

[Goredho 17345]

5 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Setting aside Pence’s qualifications (or lack thereof) having VP lead effort is not bad call. This response will span multiple agences:DHS if travel ban, HHS, CDC possibly military and many others. 
 

Pence isn’t guy but neither would Biden have been. Ironically probably best one in recent years would have been Cheney. 
Sad reality is politics has turned into Hollywood for ugly people and next to no one is really qualified to handle a massive domestic crisis. 

I honestly feel better with Trump delegating the response to literally anyone else.  Let him fuck around with his rallies and reelection bullshit while someone else with some brain activity is focused on our response to the pandemic.  The VP with the authority of the President is about as good as we can hope for.

[Biff Tannen 45492]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I honestly feel better with Trump delegating the response to literally anyone else.  Let him fuck around with his rallies and reelection bullshit while someone else with some brain activity is focused on our response to the pandemic.  The VP with the authority of the President is about as good as we can hope for.

I mean, yeah, but I'm not super pumped about the options here.

[TXSG8R 3360]

2 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i dunno the answer to that. 

but it seems we are seeing more cases springing up outside of china, but we are not seeing the scale of deaths. to @Anastasis's point about the overwhelming of health care systems, i again ask, outside of china, is the hospitalization situation an issue? we have people in quarantine, of course, but are they dying of the virus? 

i guess my main question: we have a death rate of 2% of known cases. what percentage of total coronavirus cases have been successfully diagnosed? we do not know that number, but we know that the number must be higher than those who have been successfully diagnosed. this would lower the death rate from the virus. and those who have died would have displayed more severe symptoms, drawing attention to themselves in the process resulting in an attempt to test them and achieving a positive.

I think most of the west will have a reduced mortality rate because they dont smoke like a french soldier in WW2, and/or breathe the equivalent of F250 exhaust every day.  

Until the CDC gets more testing material into the field, we are really blind to what the actual spread is.  Which is why it was dumb for the president to get on TV proclaiming everything is fine.  

[TXSG8R 3360]

5 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I honestly feel better with Trump delegating the response to literally anyone else.  Let him fuck around with his rallies and reelection bullshit while someone else with some brain activity is focused on our response to the pandemic.  The VP with the authority of the President is about as good as we can hope for.

I think its extremely optimistic to think that the VP with the authority of the president will do anything without the president's direct approval.  He just gets to be the guy having to sit in all the boring meetings and get on TV and talk about how everything is fine now.  

[JimmyJames 12271]

The Spanish flu of 1918 killed at least 20 million people and 675,000 Americans. 
 

Some of you may be surprised by this but the Internet wasn’t around back then so most people were in the dark about what was happening as it was deliberately deemphasized to contain/limit panic. Whether or not this was a good thing or not, we hopefully are not about to find out. 
 

On the other hand trump wasn’t the president back then so that fact probably saved the lives of untold millions. 

[Goredho 17345]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I mean, yeah, but I'm not super pumped about the options here.

Likewise.  I'm not saying Pence is the best pick, but this is better than Donny getting the idea only he can save America from the coronavirus.

It makes me wonder if someone with Trump's ear that supports him as a figurehead to the conservative power grab but terrified of him actually having to lead during a crisis just told him, "Hey, why don't you put Pence on this?  He spends most of the day browsing Grindr personal ads, so he's got the time.  It will let you focus on the important issues -- like the campaign and re-election efforts.  And, you know, if it gets bad, you have a buffer between you and the problem.  You can throw him under the bus and pick a new VP candidate."

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

2 minutes ago, zork said:

 It will be clear in the coming months but it seems like it should be trickling into chaos here by now if the early people got here in mid/late January undetected for whatever reason.  Maybe we get lucky there aren't/haven't been super spreaders yet?

So hard to say, isn't it? The student who traveled to Texas was not all that old and fortunately everyone was made aware early. If the incubation period is up to 24 days, that is almost four weeks to have something contagious out and about. But so many of the younger folks may not seek medical care for a variety of reasons and it is the older victims who would be more likely to have the respiratory distress that would need care. And as was stated, that symptom covers a lot of infections, so if the disease presents itself after (lets say 3 weeks) and then one falls ill and then appears to get better or has the relapse as the Japanese patient did, that could add quite a bit of time to the exposure levels as well as make diagnosis difficult. January 22 to February 22 is what? 4 weeks? Guess we will discover in the coming weeks as to how prevalent it is. The Texas case in the student turned up negative, but travel in the US is global due to colleges, universities, businesses, etc. While Miami, LA, Boston, NY, etc may be scrutinized after the travel was routed there, prior to that people were arriving and then getting on their connecting flights to everywhere. The CDC is probably sharpening their whack-a-mole skills and hopefully the state and local health agencies are too.

 

Oh, and I'm not a doctor, either but I do speculate and second-guess.

[hayden_horn 11360]

1 minute ago, Goredho said:

Likewise.  I'm not saying Pence is the best pick, but this is better than Donny getting the idea only he can save America from the coronavirus.

It makes me wonder if someone with Trump's ear that supports him as a figurehead to the conservative power grab but terrified of him actually having to lead during a crisis just told him, "Hey, why don't you put Pence on this?  He spends most of the day browsing Grindr personal ads, so he's got the time.  It will let you focus on the important issues -- like the campaign and re-election efforts.  And, you know, if it gets bad, you have a buffer between you and the problem.  You can throw him under the bus and pick a new VP candidate."

it's always this fucking guy

[JBJ 3649]

6 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i dunno the answer to that. 

but it seems we are seeing more cases springing up outside of china, but we are not seeing the scale of deaths. to @Anastasis's point about the overwhelming of health care systems, i again ask, outside of china, is the hospitalization situation an issue? we have people in quarantine, of course, but are they dying of the virus? 

i guess my main question: we have a death rate of 2% of known cases. what percentage of total coronavirus cases have been successfully diagnosed? we do not know that number, but we know that the number must be higher than those who have been successfully diagnosed. this would lower the death rate from the virus. and those who have died would have displayed more severe symptoms, drawing attention to themselves in the process resulting in an attempt to test them and achieving a positive.

I thought I read somewhere that the diagnosed case morality is 3-4%, but they think the real morality rate is lower ~2% because many cases can go unreported or misdiagnosed.

[hayden_horn 11360]

Just now, JBJ said:

I thought I read somewhere that the diagnosed case morality is 3-4%, but they think the real morality rate is lower ~2% because many cases can go unreported or misdiagnosed.

that's a much more concise way of saying what i was trying to say.

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

If the virus knocks off a bunch of olds, that's Trump's base so there's that.

[jimmyjazz 45547]

22 minutes ago, zork said:

Won't matter if it is even 10/1 death rate(half the reported 20-1) and the increases in "flu", aka flu and misdiagnosed Covid-19,  this year explode here in the USA(not conflating the rest of the world with the USA)  It will be clear in the coming months but it seems like it should be trickling into chaos here by now if the early people got here in mid/late January undetected for whatever reason.  Maybe we get lucky there aren't/haven't been super spreaders yet?

Most of the 60 known cases in the US have been quarantined from the jump.  This would suppress the rate of transmission.  At 2% mortality rate, we would expect . . . one person to have died.

It's too early to be making any assessments of future morbidity/mortality.

[tx 3 putt 76330]

Shut it all down for one week. Everyone work from home, where possible. 
 

petro and chem plants need to keep running 

[InkaUtexas 25503]

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Shut it all down for one week. Everyone work from home, where possible. 
 

petro and chem plants need to keep running 

And truckers. People do not realize how food insecure Urban America is. 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

3 hours ago, The Royal We said:

SIAP

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

 

Quote

Making vaccines is so difficult, cost intensive, and high risk that in the 1980s, when drug companies began to incur legal costs over alleged harms caused by vaccines, many opted to simply quit making them. To incentivize the pharmaceutical industry to keep producing these vital products, the U.S. government offered to indemnify anyone claiming to have been harmed by a vaccine. The arrangement continues to this day. Even still, drug companies have generally found it more profitable to invest in the daily-use drugs for chronic conditions. 

I really hate the pharmaceutical industry. They gouge Americans on prescription drugs, and then refuse to make vaccines.

[triplehorn 2664]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

I think that any mortality rates coming out of China are underestimates.  I also don't think that those estimates are transferable to western medical systems. The problem is going to be if/when our medical infrastructure breaks down as the shear number of cases overwhelms the system.

case in point - a friend in that neck of the woods just told me that Napa County completely ran out of ventilators a couple years ago during the flu season.  His first thought was the potential for nursing homes getting wiped out if this NoCal incident takes off worse than seasonal flu.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

12 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

I really hate the pharmaceutical industry. They gouge Americans on prescription drugs, and then refuse to make vaccines.

Two things. One is that *Peter Hotez is someone who I check occasionally on Twitter. He is an advocate in the fields of global health, vaccinology, and neglected tropical disease control. He has been waging a battle to get people to vaccinate their children and the anti-vaccine crowd has harassed and stalked him from the get go. He wrote the book, Vaccines didn't cause Rachel's Autism: My Journey as a Vaccine Scientist, Pediatrician and Autism Dad. Here is his perspective:

 

On the other hand, you have Del BigTree, Austin's finest anti-vaxxer yeller who now travels the country yelling at people. Here he is in California in the bottom-most video doing his schtick, which is that this is a big pharma plot. The man at the top is speaking against a law requiring vaccinations for school children. He posits that it is disingenuous as adults who work at the school don't have the proposed law applied to them as well, therefore no one should. Well, duh, most adults are vaccinated.

 

*Hotez serves as founding dean and chief of the Baylor College of Medicine National School of Tropical Medicine in the Department of pediatrics and holds the Texas Children's Hospital Endowed Chair in Tropical Pediatrics.

[4th&Five 41458]

Pence began his first day has full time virus boss by speaking at CPAC so yeah, they're serious about this.

[HenryJames 65887]

 

[washparkhorn 9935]

58 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If the virus knocks off a bunch of olds, that's Trump's base so there's that.

That is Biden's base as well. I don't wish illness on anyone (not that you were). I don't pray to Republican Jesus.