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Michael Cohen Investigation

DanTheHorn

By DanTheHorn
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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Why?

Because Cohen paid Stormy.   If you're tracing the funds from the Trump campaign, that's the last link in the chain.   Campaign to Trump Org.  Trump Org to Cohen.  Cohen to Stormy. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

They're going to change their story on the Stormy Daniels payment again. 

Several more times to keep this as the central scandal in the media. 

This was a tactic Bill Clinton used.

Keep fluffing a minor scandal to distract from a MAJOR one. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's not working.

Yeah, Trump sucks at it because he's too emotional and transparent. 

He has Mueller/Russia on the brain 24/7 and he can't divert the press like he's supposed to.

The American people deserve a better class of scoundrel.

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TahoeHorn

TahoeHorn 107

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

So were those sequential and hand picked or did they fall out just like in the spreadsheet?

Also. Just like Trump to short her by 28 cents.

The bigger question would be to understand the services provided for those billings.  Who sent the invoice (if there is one) and what services are detailed?  For example for a hotel bill of $18,731.90 I'd want to know what rooms, what food, who was in  the rooms and so on.  When the FBI asks the hotel to turn over its records it'll be crystal clear whether the $18,731.90 checks out down to the maid's signature and affirmation on the mini-bar bill for room 1631.  It'll be totally bogus or it'll check out.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45986

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Because Cohen paid Stormy.   If you're tracing the funds from the Trump campaign, that's the last link in the chain.   Campaign to Trump Org.  Trump Org to Cohen.  Cohen to Stormy. 

It doesn't matter, at least as far as Cohen is concerned.  His payment to Stormy was an illegal campaign finance contribution.

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yaqdum

yaqdum 182

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Well, Trump just walked back the whole thing and said Giuliani is preparing a new statement now that he's gotten his facts straight. 

what that means is they've found the perfect lie.  it's going to work even better than the nunes memo.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18930

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It doesn't matter, at least as far as Cohen is concerned.  His payment to Stormy was an illegal campaign finance contribution.

That's a question of fact for a jury. The argument will be made that he paid Stormy to protect Trump's marriage, not the campaign.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45986

Posted
Posted
Just now, Mojo Hand said:

But doesn't it matter as far as Trump is concerned? 

I think the degree of his awareness heightens his exposure, but it was still an illegal contribution to his campaign . . . by his personal attorney.  I understand the desire to stack more malfeasance, but I'm just trying to point out that a payment to a 3rd party in excess of allowed limits triggers the illegal contribution laws.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/03/politics/campaign-finance-q-and-a/index.html

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45986

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

That's a question of fact for a jury. The argument will be made that he paid Stormy to protect Trump's marriage, not the campaign.

The timing clearly makes it about the campaign.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105161

Posted
Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

Maybe it's just me, but I don't think any of these lies are working well at all.

1 -- they are plenty good for the base.  The base is rock-solid loyal to Trump.

2 -- that base controls the GOP primary in most GOP districts/states.

3 -- any betrayal of the GodKing Trump will be punished by the base, meaning loss of primary etc.

4 -- GOP Congress knows this.

 

Conclusion: so long as Team Trump keeps their base on their side, they are bulletproof, because GOP leadership will never buck the Trumpkin base.  The base is the only audience that matters.  And that base has proven time and time again that they'll happily lap up whatever lies Team Trump feeds them, so long as those lies validate their position of worship of Trump.  

Trump's winning with the only group that matters.

Which means that he'll win the whole fucking thing.

That's what happens when you turn over control of your country to the 30-40% who are morons/psychopaths, and a spineless GOP leadership who gave them that control.  It's our destiny.  Drink it up.

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TahoeHorn

TahoeHorn 107

Posted
Posted

Forget Stormy Daniels for a moment.  Was the Trump Organization submitting bogus bills to the Trump campaign?  Is that $129,999.72 bogus?  I don't think you have to prove it was for Stormy to be a problem.  And if that $130K is bogus I'd think you could start looking for other examples of bogus billing or overbilling.

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I think the degree of his awareness heightens his exposure, but it was still an illegal contribution to his campaign . . . by his personal attorney.  I understand the desire to stack more malfeasance, but I'm just trying to point out that a payment to a 3rd party in excess of allowed limits triggers the illegal contribution laws.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/03/politics/campaign-finance-q-and-a/index.html

But then it is a question of fact whether the payment was made to help his campaign or ease a personal crisis that was causing pain to his wife.   If the money came from the campaign, there's no question that it was campaign-related payment. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18930

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

1 -- they are plenty good for the base.  The base is rock-solid loyal to Trump.

2 -- that base controls the GOP primary in most GOP districts/states.

3 -- any betrayal of the GodKing Trump will be punished by the base, meaning loss of primary etc.

4 -- GOP Congress knows this.

 

Conclusion: so long as Team Trump keeps their base on their side, they are bulletproof, because GOP leadership will never buck the Trumpkin base.  The base is the only audience that matters.  And that base has proven time and time again that they'll happily lap up whatever lies Team Trump feeds them, so long as those lies validate their position of worship of Trump.  

Trump's winning with the only group that matters.

Which means that he'll win the whole fucking thing.

That's what happens when you turn over control of your country to the 30-40% who are morons/psychopaths, and a spineless GOP leadership who gave them that control.  It's our destiny.  Drink it up.

This is a terrible electoral strategy. He won by getting votes from people outside of his base. If they are simply concerned with what the base thinks, they are fucked come November and beyond.

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ndawg

ndawg 1242

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

This is a terrible electoral strategy. He won by getting votes from people outside of his base. If they are simply concerned with what the base thinks, they are fucked come November and beyond.

That 40% of morons/psychopaths in presidential elections end up being a much bigger factor in mid terms. They show up more than other groups.

And all the GOP really needs to do to have a shot at 2020 is to push a simple narrative on the political middle: with all the crazy lies flying around with both sides, you can't really trust either one. Trump may be a scoundrel, and he may cheat to win here and there, but the left is way worse because they pretend to be honest and fair, when they've been out to get Trump since he won the primary. Remember that, when they predicted he'd never win, but he did? Etc.

If they succeed with that messaging, they'll convince some of the people in the middle of the spectrum to vote Trump, and others that might lean left will feel justified in staying home. This will get worse if the Dems pick an unpopular candidate again.

Edited by ndawg
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TahoeHorn

TahoeHorn 107

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

This is a terrible electoral strategy. He won by getting votes from people outside of his base. If they are simply concerned with what the base thinks, they are fucked come November and beyond.

The electoral strategy was, is, and will be, to conduct public relations a day at a time.  If a story is bad he creates a new story.  "Nobody" thought it would work.  It did.  He won't change that.  I don't think he could if he wanted to.  No strategy.  Every day is a new story with little regard for a need to be consistent with yesterday's story.

 

Hey, I thought this would blow up almost immediately.  So did the other 16 GOP candidates.  So did the media.  So did the Dems, especially Hillary.  It didn't blow up.  we were wrong.  Don't think for a minute that he will change his modus operandi.  It's been burned into his DNA.

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sheeeit

sheeeit 129

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

1 -- they are plenty good for the base.  The base is rock-solid loyal to Trump.

2 -- that base controls the GOP primary in most GOP districts/states.

3 -- any betrayal of the GodKing Trump will be punished by the base, meaning loss of primary etc.

4 -- GOP Congress knows this.

 

Conclusion: so long as Team Trump keeps their base on their side, they are bulletproof, because GOP leadership will never buck the Trumpkin base.  The base is the only audience that matters.  And that base has proven time and time again that they'll happily lap up whatever lies Team Trump feeds them, so long as those lies validate their position of worship of Trump.  

Trump's winning with the only group that matters.

Which means that he'll win the whole fucking thing.

That's what happens when you turn over control of your country to the 30-40% who are morons/psychopaths, and a spineless GOP leadership who gave them that control.  It's our destiny.  Drink it up.

Your capacity to post the same thing over and over and over is impressive.

My take on the payments is that Cohen paid stormy off.  I would guess that Trump knew but I think it will be impossible to prove that he knew or it will be a semantics game- Trump to Cohen "just deal with it" but I dont need to know the details.  In that scenario, Trump can truthfully state that he did not know that a payment was made.  

My guess is that Guiliiani saw that there were retainer fees to Cohen from Trump and made the assumption that Mueller/Press/Public would interpret those retainer fees as reimbursement for Stormy so he decided to just go public with it because there wasn't anything illegal about it (assuming the payments were, in fact, from cohen personally and not the campaign).

Obviously, if Cohen used campaign funds or was reimbursed from the campaign then there is trouble with FEC violations.  Pretty sure the violations would be civil but who knows.

The problem with the line of thinking that Cohen used campaign funds to pay Stormy or that the campaign paid Cohen back is that we already have the story out there about the retainer fees from Trump.  If the campaign paid for the hush money or immediately reimbursed Cohen as some are suggesting, then why are there retainer fees to Cohen now?

My guess is that Cohen made the payments from his own pocket.  My guess is that when cohen initially said he was not reimbursed for the payment by trump or the campaign he could technically be correct.  Trump can say he put him on retainer for legal advice.  Of course it sounds sketchy and very well may be but I do not think it is illegal.

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JBJ

JBJ 3655

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

But then it is a question of fact whether the payment was made to help his campaign or ease a personal crisis that was causing pain to his wife.   If the money came from the campaign, there's no question that it was campaign-related payment. 

The question is if the payments originated from the campaign, and if they are allowed under campaign finance laws.  Arguing that they are campaign-related is an argument in favor of Trump (assuming they originated from the campaign).

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TahoeHorn

TahoeHorn 107

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

....

My guess is that Cohen made the payments from his own pocket.  My guess is that when cohen initially said he was not reimbursed for the payment by trump or the campaign he could technically be correct.  Trump can say he put him on retainer for legal advice.  Of course it sounds sketchy and very well may be but I do not think it is illegal.

Your guess may be as good as mine.  But I can tell you that there will be records.  And the records will tell a compelling story.  Cohen will have received a special $130K or not.  It will have come from the campaign or from Trump (or no payment). 

 

Trump's team may be able to spin uncomfortable facts, but I doubt it.  The problem for both sides is that there will be lots of paper trails.  The problem for Trump is that he won't be able to fix the facts.  The problem for Mueller is that explaining how this hotel bill which was signed by a hotel accountant who said he was told by his boss ... takes some good lawyering when pitted against a spinmaster.

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Grade of D as in David

Grade of D as in David 13253

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Too soon.

 

Really?

40 Wall street actually was the second-tallest building in downtown Manhattan, and it was actually before the World Trade Center the tallest, and and then when they built the World Trade Center it became known as the second-tallest, and now it’s the tallest And I just spoke to my people, and they said it’s the most unbelievable sight, it’s probably seven or eight blocks away from the World Trade Center, and yet Wall Street is littered with two feet of stone and brick and mortar and steel …

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Blotto

Blotto 23560

Posted
Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

1 -- they are plenty good for the base.  The base is rock-solid loyal to Trump.

 

See post #882 from Sheeit. The ass-sniffing rubes that comprise Trump's base just can't bring themselves around to the realization that maybe, just maybe, Trump is lying out his ass. 

Edited by Blotto
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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The question is if the payments originated from the campaign, and if they are allowed under campaign finance laws.  Arguing that they are campaign-related is an argument in favor of Trump (assuming they originated from the campaign).

But they didn't report it as a campaign expenditure.  How does it help him to admit it was for the campaign, and thus needed to be reported? 

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Grade of D as in David

Grade of D as in David 13253

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TahoeHorn said:

The problem for Trump is that he won't be able to fix the facts.  The problem for Mueller is that explaining how this hotel bill which was signed by a hotel accountant who said he was told by his boss ... takes some good lawyering when pitted against a spinmaster.

The President of the United States was in such terrible health that he dictated a note to the contrary to his personal physician.

Don't tell me that he can't fix the facts, or that the word of an accountant in Trump's employ is unimpeachable.

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sheeeit

sheeeit 129

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TahoeHorn said:

Your guess may be as good as mine.  But I can tell you that there will be records.  And the records will tell a compelling story.  Cohen will have received a special $130K or not.  It will have come from the campaign or from Trump (or no payment). 

 

Trump's team may be able to spin uncomfortable facts, but I doubt it.  The problem for both sides is that there will be lots of paper trails.  The problem for Trump is that he won't be able to fix the facts.  The problem for Mueller is that explaining how this hotel bill which was signed by a hotel accountant who said he was told by his boss ... takes some good lawyering when pitted against a spinmaster.

Your first paragraph is my whole point.  I believe that there are records showing $35K monthly retainer payments to Cohen from trump that started sometime after the election.  IMO, that is why Guillani talked about it.  Their position is going to be that Cohen made the initial payment to Stormy without Trump's knowledge and without the campaign's knowledge.  Trump and Cohen will try and say it was just a retainer for legal work and not connected to the Stormy payout.  I think that is bs but I do not think that even if they now admit that it was essentially reimbursement for the payout that it was illegal.  That was Guilliani's point.  

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TahoeHorn

TahoeHorn 107

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Your first paragraph is my whole point.  I believe that there are records showing $35K monthly retainer payments to Cohen from trump that started sometime after the election.  IMO, that is why Guillani talked about it.  Their position is going to be that Cohen made the initial payment to Stormy without Trump's knowledge and without the campaign's knowledge.  Trump and Cohen will try and say it was just a retainer for legal work and not connected to the Stormy payout.  I think that is bs but I do not think that even if they now admit that it was essentially reimbursement for the payout that it was illegal.  That was Guilliani's point.  

But are there other records?  Records that either support the Trump narrative or contradict it?  Are there, for example, records of $130K in bogus billings from Trump Org to Trump campaign?

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

Posted
Posted

I earnestly salute Hugo's dedication, but his posting frequency wears me out sometimes. 

BUT, like he says, who gives a shit about whether or not Trump boned a porn star and where the money came from. As Hugo points out, that is NOT THE REAL ISSUE with this treasonous asshole. 

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Bat Guano

Bat Guano 359

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Doing the lying dance as fast as he can.  So full of bullshit.

 

 

 

The fuck? It's pretty fucking easy to play the clip of him saying "No" when asked if he knew about the payment.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45986

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The question is if the payments originated from the campaign, and if they are allowed under campaign finance laws.  Arguing that they are campaign-related is an argument in favor of Trump (assuming they originated from the campaign).

Wrong.  The question is if the payments were of value to the campaign.  If they were . . . and they CLEARLY were . . . then they constitute campaign finance law violations because of the amount.

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sheeeit

sheeeit 129

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TahoeHorn said:

But are there other records?  Records that either support the Trump narrative or contradict it?  Are there, for example, records of $130K in bogus billings from Trump Org to Trump campaign?

So your theory is that back during the final weeks of the campaign that Cohen paid stormy $130K and then the trump org billed the trump campaign an equivalent amount of money ($130K).  And then Trump funneled the money back to Cohen in $35K monthly installments after the fact?  I suppose that is possible with this crew but I doubt it.   

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sheeeit

sheeeit 129

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Wrong.  The question is if the payments were of value to the campaign.  If they were . . . and they CLEARLY were . . . then they constitute campaign finance law violations because of the amount.

That is not technically correct.  First, the campaign had to know about the contribution and "accept" it.  Or, they have to make the case that Cohen was an active agent of the campaign.  Both will be very hard to prove, IMO.  But it is not a slam dunk.

They can also try and make a case that by Trump reimbursing Cohen that that act constituted the acceptance of the payment for the benefit of the campaign.  The whole episode is shady but proving it to be illegal will be difficult.  And, even if they prove it somehow, the only real penalty is to retroactively declare it and account for it and, possibly, return it.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I earnestly salute Hugo's dedication, but his posting frequency wears me out sometimes. 

BUT, like he says, who gives a shit about whether or not Trump boned a porn star and where the money came from. As Hugo points out, that is NOT THE REAL ISSUE with this treasonous asshole. 

Here’s what I basically know about the Cohen Investigation:

Mueller found evidence of Cohen crimes that fell outside the scope of his investigation

He referred it to Rosenstein 

Rosenstein sent it to SDNY

FBI/SDNY had Cohen under surveillance for some time

They discovered evidence of SERIOUS ongoing criminal activity that went beyond campaign finance violations 

Cohen got raided

Sean Hannity is a Cohen client 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45986

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

That is not technically correct.  First, the campaign had to know about the contribution and "accept" it.  Or, they have to make the case that Cohen was an active agent of the campaign.  Both will be very hard to prove, IMO.  But it is not a slam dunk.

Proving one of those is as easy as falling off a log.

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TahoeHorn

TahoeHorn 107

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

So your theory is that back during the final weeks of the campaign that Cohen paid stormy $130K and then the trump org billed the trump campaign an equivalent amount of money ($130K).  And then Trump funneled the money back to Cohen in $35K monthly installments after the fact?  I suppose that is possible with this crew but I doubt it.   

I don't have a specific theory.  I don't know the facts.  The facts are not in the public domain.

I'm saying (and I have quite a bit of experience in this matter) that Trump won't be able to retroactively fix the financial records.  He'll have to live with the facts as they exist.  So, for EXAMPLE, if they created a bogus hotel bill to "funnel" money to Cohen from the campaign there will be records that prove that.  The $35K retainer will be a standard thing or it will be suspiciously created.  Trump can tell a story at a high level about hotel bills but when financial experts start pouring through records and prosecutors start deposing hotel maids about why their signature is on a mini-bar bill and it doesn't look like their signature and they weren't paid for that time period and ... then  high level hotel people decide they'd rather piss off the Trump Org bosses than lie to the feds.  Whether the prosecution lawyers can communicate that would be the issue. 

I do not say that Trump did "funnel" money from the campaign to Cohen, nor do I say there were bogus hotel bills.  I say that Mueller will know the truth and have hard evidence of it.  The only question will be how the story plays in public. 

 

P.S.  Let me say it differently.  If Cohen was repaid $130K he almost certainly wasn't paid with a payment from Trump himself that said reimbursement for money you paid for Stormy's silence.  He will have been repaid through something bogus. There will be problems with the paper trail that can't be fixed.  There will be bogus transactions that will probably be, in and of themselves, a problem.  And if Cohen wasn't repaid that's a problem too.

Look, if they had a story that could play we would have heard it.  They've tried stories that didn't work and walked them back.  And now that the feds have documents they don't know what to do.  That we do know.

Edited by TahoeHorn
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