Revisiting the Shaggy Soothsayers

[TwiceHorn 31283]

6 minutes ago, TornACL said:

I work in a field that requires close interaction with the labor markets re: minimum wage. 

With subcontractors, the rising minimum wage forced businesses to seek efficiency and innovation in their operations. 

Wages rise, contractors try to pass the entirety of the labor cost increase onto their customers. Customers tell them to fuck off, and say, offer to pay half. And so companies go back to the drawing board and find creative solutions to protect margins. 

This did not have the disastrous results that the doomsayers predicted. While on a micro level some jobs may have been made redundant, there apparently is plenty of demand still out there even at the higher wage rates. 

One issue with the Seattle SeaTac area increase that was crazy was the retroactive payment element, even to departed employees. Companies had a hell of a time chasing down those people to give them free money in order to be compliant. But that's a minor headache and no reason to rethink policy. 

I am all for businesses being smarter instead of being lazy and bloated and covering it by paying their worker bees fuck all. Even removing one worthless do nothing area manager making six figs will get you ~five more workers. 

Interesting point.  Reminds that maximum employment of unskilled workers at living wages also corresponded with maximum corporate bloat, using automakers and allied industries as an example.

Edited February 1, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[bolverk 29400]

31 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Interesting point.  Reminds that maximum employment of unskilled workers at living wages also corresponded with maximum corporate bloat, using automakers and allied industries as an example.

The difference is that the nature of manufacturing has changed dramatically. There are very few unskilled laborers working in an auto plant today. Most, if not all, of the rote work has been automated.

I haven't looked it up, but I'd guess that labor costs for most manufacturers have declined as a share of inputs.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13546]

Wealth disparity incentivizes corruption and is inevitably toxic to democracy.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

9 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Wealth disparity incentivizes corruption and is inevitably toxic to democracy.

It also seems to correspond with a rise in ethnic nationalism, both this time and last time. Can we solve it differently this time?  A fractured Europe is a dangerous thing. We've also only got one chance left ourselves at course correcting to the Allied side. As it is, we will be leading the Axis this time around, or at best, we will be playing the role of Spain.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

The difference is that the nature of manufacturing has changed dramatically. There are very few unskilled laborers working in an auto plant today. Most, if not all, of the rote work has been automated.

I haven't looked it up, but I'd guess that labor costs for most manufacturers have declined as a share of inputs.

You are correct.  Labor costs as a share of manufacturing costs have declined significantly and the top of the ladder has captured nearly all of this "savings."  But there are unskilled jobs that don't lend themselves well to automation. Things like janitor and porter.  They need to be destigmatized and pay better though. Since we are now a service economy, low end office jobs should have wage increases too.  Unions are the answer.  The CEO isn't going to clean the toilets.  Prior to unions, factory workers were considered interchangable cheap parts too. 

There are other places where real workers should make a come back based on market forces too. Automated phone customer service is nearly universally hated. 

[Nivek 16860]

23 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

It also seems to correspond with a rise in ethnic nationalism, both this time and last time. Can we solve it differently this time?  A fractured Europe is a dangerous thing. We've also only got one chance left ourselves at course correcting to the Allied side. As it is, we will be leading the Axis this time around, or at best, we will be playing the role of Spain.

Nationalism = 3 dudes at a table with 10 gold coins, the banker takes 8 of them and tells the rube that the other guy is an immigrant and is trying to steal his 2 coins.  

[horn4life 3755]

4 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Adding to the debt and basic math issues irks me. Wealth disparity does not. At all. Such a manufactured issue. 

So you did not want to answer the simple question? Honestly it's best to stick to subjects you at least have a rudimentary understanding of.  Economics is simply another one of those subjects apparently. Unless of course you mean that GOP economic policies have manufactured a much greater wealth disparity in our country.  Which you did not. Tax policy designed to heap more debt burden onto the many while rewarding the few at the top is why we are from an income disparity perspective. 

Edited February 1, 2020 by horn4life

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

3 hours ago, horn4life said:

So you did not want to answer the simple question?

[washparkhorn 9935]

2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

There will always be disparity and there should be. Great disparity results in overthrown governments.

It's here and has been growing since neoliberalism became the official economics policy of the U.S. in 1980.  Our Gini coefficient rank is awful. And here is the growing disparity that you warn will lead to "overthrown governments."

[TwiceHorn 31283]

10 hours ago, bolverk said:

The difference is that the nature of manufacturing has changed dramatically. There are very few unskilled laborers working in an auto plant today. Most, if not all, of the rote work has been automated.

I haven't looked it up, but I'd guess that labor costs for most manufacturers have declined as a share of inputs.

That's what I meant.  Machine shops and manufacturing facilities were not only not automated, but antiquated and inefficient, leading to large scale employment for a lot of unskilled workers.  And that time in American industry also corresponded to a lot of corporate inefficiency, as well.

I imagine the corporate bloat is still around, but computers have made everyone in office jobs immensely more productive, which can reduce employment, but not the same way an automated press-brake or multi-axis mill does.

[yoladu 4067]

On 2/1/2020 at 6:29 PM, washparkhorn said:

It's here and has been growing since neoliberalism became the official economics policy of the U.S. in 1980.  Our Gini coefficient rank is awful. And here is the growing disparity that you warn will lead to "overthrown governments."

Where is the "Make America Great Again" sweet spot?

[Nivek 16860]

You seem to think that because growing disparity and various tax breaks are correlated that I don’t have rudimentary understanding of this. Disparity is a nonissue. There will always be disparity and there should be. Great disparity results in overthrown governments. The issue in growing debt resides in our tax policy; whether or not we have tax cuts within the framework of that policy is an easy, partisan culprit. The whole framework needs to be thrown out and reworked.
No need to neg before a discussion is had. I merely retaliated. 

Overthrown governments are not typically peaceful process. I would prefer not to let morons and assholes push us to warfare as a solution to disparity.

[Incredulity 11555]

On 2/1/2020 at 4:29 PM, washparkhorn said:

It's here and has been growing since neoliberalism became the official economics policy of the U.S. in 1980.  Our Gini coefficient rank is awful. And here is the growing disparity that you warn will lead to "overthrown governments."

So your saying, Malaise FTW?

[Brisketexan 104628]

21 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Where is the "Make America Great Again" sweet spot?

That's the genius -- there isn't one!  As there looks to be an infinite supply of browns, blacks, mooslems, and (((coastal elites))) to blame for any problems the bottom 90% may suffer, the gravy train never has to end!

Manipulating the working class (mostly the white portion thereof) to consistently voting against their interest -- pit two demographics of the 90% against each other, because divided, they can be controlled -- well, that's the strategy.  And it's working like a charm.  "You guys would totally have it made...if it wasn't for those other guys over there."  Then watch them tear each other down.  I'd say it's genius, but it's not even that clever.

[High Plains Drifter 10977]

On 2/1/2020 at 10:30 AM, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Wealth disparity incentivizes corruption and is inevitably toxic to democracy.

 

Right, that's why its not an issue to beeper/swam/tahoe/whoeverheis

[Huckleberry 32703]

Where's my update now that it's 2021 and the full $15 or $16.69 or whatever is in effect? The graph in the OP looks a lot different now, so untangling the effects from COVID should make for a really congenial discussion.

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

@Ag with kids boycott must be really extensive by now.

[Ag with kids 581]

4 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

@Ag with kids boycott must be really extensive by now.

What boycott?  I've never advocated for those...

[washparkhorn 9935]

All we need now is Tahoe (Mr. Pink). 

Edited September 16, 2021 by washparkhorn

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

6 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

What boycott?  I've never advocated for those...

Yeah, tell it to poor Mr Peanut. He’s gotta be down to a bucket and suspenders now. 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

We had to bump the minimum for the crews. $16.50 if you can make it every day. We had 10% walk off for greener pastures in Austin previous to the benefits and pay upgrade. 

That got the attention of the office. Hence the upgrades. Some of the ones that left took less money to have PTO. 

 

[Ag with kids 581]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Yeah, tell it to poor Mr Peanut. He’s gotta be down to a bucket and suspenders now. 

You're becoming quite odd in your old age...

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13546]

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/dan-price-ceo-on-giving-all-his-employees-minimum-70k-paycheck-thriving-six-years-later/

[sheeeit 129]

Somehow I missed this little gem of a post and since one of my original posts was used in the OP I feel like responding.  Anyone can go read the exact quotes but I expected the following:

1) There would not be an overall loss in employment in Seattle in most sectors because the white collar jobs influx was/is fantastic.  Seattle could absorb the wage increase better than most communities.

This is exactly what has happened.  Employment numbers in Seattle are up double digits since 2014.
 

2) There would not be losses in employment in the fast food/hospitality industry because the minimum wage increase hit all of them the same but prices would increase significantly compared to neighboring areas.

This is exactly what happened.  Today an average FF meal in Seattle is $10.30 versus $9 in neighboring Bellevue.  In almost every other category, Bellevue is more expensive than Seattle and has an overall higher cost of living than Seattle but not for Big Macs. 

3) There would be a loss of manufacturing jobs, especially those manufacturers that sold their products outside of Seattle.  The wage/cost  increase to them but not their competitors would cause businesses to move or close. 

This is exactly what happened.  Since 2014 employment totals in every single industry tracked by the BLS in Seattle (hospitality, energy, education, finance, professional services, health services, IT etc.) have had 3-5% year over year growth (exclusive of Covid but the percentages are the same).  Over that same time period Manufacturing in Seattle had 3-5% year over year losses.  FYI, overall manufacturing in Washington state as a whole is up 1-2% year over year since 2014.  

I am not opposed to minimum wage increases based on some dumb idea of "pulling yourself up" or "making better decisions etc".  I am opposed to it because it doesn't help the people it is designed to help, those making low wages, but it does increase costs for everyone else.  It is a fools effort that politicians love.  All economists (conservative or liberal) agree that arbitrarily increasing wages will lead to inflation (obviously assumes no govt price caps or something similar). We would be much, much better off as a society and the people affected would be much, much better off if we would put more resources into training and education than arbitrarily raising min wages.  

 

 

 

 

[sheeeit 129]

I also remembered this gems by my old buddy Frondren Road:

FR "Cheesecake Factory prices are exactly the same in Austin and Seattle." 

I just did a little research (I checked current menu pricing for Austin's Cheesecake versus Seattle's on a Mojito, chicken taqueros, ceasar salad and classic burger) and Seattle's prices average 18% higher.

 

 

 

 

 

[Horn Dogg 3808]

On 1/30/2020 at 10:11 AM, Brisketexan said:

 

Man, can you imagine having to eat her pussy?

[horngrad03 1147]

5 minutes ago, Horn Dogg said:

Man, can you imagine having to eat her pussy?

[Js1 85110]

19 minutes ago, Horn Dogg said:

Man, can you imagine having to eat her pussy?

You should be banned for that 

[Ag with kids 581]

12 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Yeah, tell it to poor Mr Peanut. He’s gotta be down to a bucket and suspenders now. 

BTW...I was lurking a couple weeks ago to see if the CR was still a burnt orange DU (it is) and I came across your post in which you stated that you were (paraphrasing) the closest thing to a libertarian on Surly...

I got a good belly laugh out of that.

And then you post this thread to shame people who are against a minimum wage (because all libertarians are DEFINITELY in favor of the government forcing an arbitrary wage on businesses)...

Thanks for the additional chuckle...

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

41 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

I came across your post in which you stated that you were (paraphrasing) the closest thing to a libertarian on Surly...

I said I was the most fiscally conservative person here, because I am (now that LonghornLaw is gone). I’m nothing like a libertarian. For starters, I don’t have a neck beard.

second, it’s not that I’m for or against a minimum wage, it’s that unless it’s so much higher than the clearing price for an hour of unskilled labor that it depresses employment it really doesn’t matter. And at this moment, it is not. 

I’m not shaming them for an ideological position. I’m shaming them (you) for thinking that in any given moment the labor market real world gives a shit about how you or I feel things should work. It’s the economy, stupid. 

Edited September 17, 2021 by Bozo_Casanova

[DonkeyCigars 144]

4 hours ago, sheeeit said:

Somehow I missed this little gem of a post and since one of my original posts was used in the OP I feel like responding.  Anyone can go read the exact quotes but I expected the following:

1) There would not be an overall loss in employment in Seattle in most sectors because the white collar jobs influx was/is fantastic.  Seattle could absorb the wage increase better than most communities.

This is exactly what has happened.  Employment numbers in Seattle are up double digits since 2014.
 

2) There would not be losses in employment in the fast food/hospitality industry because the minimum wage increase hit all of them the same but prices would increase significantly compared to neighboring areas.

This is exactly what happened.  Today an average FF meal in Seattle is $10.30 versus $9 in neighboring Bellevue.  In almost every other category, Bellevue is more expensive than Seattle and has an overall higher cost of living than Seattle but not for Big Macs. 

3) There would be a loss of manufacturing jobs, especially those manufacturers that sold their products outside of Seattle.  The wage/cost  increase to them but not their competitors would cause businesses to move or close. 

This is exactly what happened.  Since 2014 employment totals in every single industry tracked by the BLS in Seattle (hospitality, energy, education, finance, professional services, health services, IT etc.) have had 3-5% year over year growth (exclusive of Covid but the percentages are the same).  Over that same time period Manufacturing in Seattle had 3-5% year over year losses.  FYI, overall manufacturing in Washington state as a whole is up 1-2% year over year since 2014.  

I am not opposed to minimum wage increases based on some dumb idea of "pulling yourself up" or "making better decisions etc".  I am opposed to it because it doesn't help the people it is designed to help, those making low wages, but it does increase costs for everyone else.  It is a fools effort that politicians love.  All economists (conservative or liberal) agree that arbitrarily increasing wages will lead to inflation (obviously assumes no govt price caps or something similar). We would be much, much better off as a society and the people affected would be much, much better off if we would put more resources into training and education than arbitrarily raising min wages.  

 

 

 

 

I bet you won't get a response to nailing it.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

4 hours ago, sheeeit said:

Somehow I missed this little gem of a post and since one of my original posts was used in the OP I feel like responding.  Anyone can go read the exact quotes but I expected the following:

1) There would not be an overall loss in employment in Seattle in most sectors because the white collar jobs influx was/is fantastic.  Seattle could absorb the wage increase better than most communities.

This is exactly what has happened.  Employment numbers in Seattle are up double digits since 2014.
 

2) There would not be losses in employment in the fast food/hospitality industry because the minimum wage increase hit all of them the same but prices would increase significantly compared to neighboring areas.

This is exactly what happened.  Today an average FF meal in Seattle is $10.30 versus $9 in neighboring Bellevue.  In almost every other category, Bellevue is more expensive than Seattle and has an overall higher cost of living than Seattle but not for Big Macs. 

3) There would be a loss of manufacturing jobs, especially those manufacturers that sold their products outside of Seattle.  The wage/cost  increase to them but not their competitors would cause businesses to move or close. 

This is exactly what happened.  Since 2014 employment totals in every single industry tracked by the BLS in Seattle (hospitality, energy, education, finance, professional services, health services, IT etc.) have had 3-5% year over year growth (exclusive of Covid but the percentages are the same).  Over that same time period Manufacturing in Seattle had 3-5% year over year losses.  FYI, overall manufacturing in Washington state as a whole is up 1-2% year over year since 2014.  

I am not opposed to minimum wage increases based on some dumb idea of "pulling yourself up" or "making better decisions etc".  I am opposed to it because it doesn't help the people it is designed to help, those making low wages, but it does increase costs for everyone else.  It is a fools effort that politicians love.  All economists (conservative or liberal) agree that arbitrarily increasing wages will lead to inflation (obviously assumes no govt price caps or something similar). We would be much, much better off as a society and the people affected would be much, much better off if we would put more resources into training and education than arbitrarily raising min wages.  

 

 

 

 

Let's see your sources. 

[Ag with kids 581]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I said I was the most fiscally conservative person here, because I am (now that LonghornLaw is gone). I’m nothing like a libertarian. For starters, I don’t have a neck beard.

second, it’s not that I’m for or against a minimum wage, it’s that unless it’s so much higher than the clearing price for an hour of unskilled labor that it depresses employment it really doesn’t matter. And at this moment, it is not. 

I’m not shaming them for an ideological position. I’m shaming them (you) for thinking that in any given moment the labor market real world gives a shit about how you or I feel things should work. It’s the economy, stupid. 

Ah yes...fiscally conservative.

I guess you really don't care if artificial forces (government) place an arbitrary barrier to the clearing price based only on political whims and it could hurt someone.  It IS, after all, the economy, stupid.  I'd say a fiscal conservative would oppose those artificial barriers, since only the labor market knows what the clearing price is...(BTW, while I oppose the MW, my quote only was that I wouldn't tip if the MW was $15/hr - that hasn't changed, I won't)

But, I'll agree that you could easily be the most fiscally conservative person on here, since the vast majority of the posters here are left of Marx...kinda like being the tallest person in a room full of midgets.

And...now I head back to food and travel where it appears the BODU doesn't do its cancel culture.  Peace!

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Fiscal conservatism is bullshit. They spend plenty, mostly guns and 1200 dollar toilet seats for bombers.

Biggest deficits are under Republican administrations.

Try again.

I thought this was about wages and shit like that?

Fiscal conservative restaurant owners are having to shut down because no one wants to work for their sorry asses any more. Fiscal conservative landscaping companies are finding that they have to pay more to keep workers.

Y'all been paying any attention to the wages it takes to keep your workers? 

Does it worry you?

I sure hope it does. If you aren't thinking about what it's going to take to keep them they are already looking around.

[washparkhorn 9935]

With all due respect @Ag with kids, might I trouble your ear for a moment?

Spoiler

Is the United States economy a mixed market economy or a capitalist economy? (economics question)

The reality is our system of government maintains artificial markets for our most successful sectors. That governmental behavior is Constitutional (Commerce Clause). 

So, why would one oppose the same type and backstop investment in underserved sectors in an quest to replicate the success of already-subsidized and backstopped sectors? 

Structurally, it is more efficient to prevent.

If we all seek the same current capitalist economic goal of growth through efficiency - why not attend to the inefficiencies found in underserved sectors (and let the capitalists make money on preventing and solving problems). 

After all, we need customers to keep this mixed market economy moving.  Right?

No rush - thanks. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

37 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Fiscal conservative restaurant owners are having to shut down because no one wants to work for their sorry asses any more

the workers are going Galt, you might say.

[Ag with kids 581]

44 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Fiscal conservatism is bullshit. They spend plenty, mostly guns and 1200 dollar toilet seats for bombers.

Biggest deficits are under Republican administrations.

Try again.

I thought this was about wages and shit like that?

Fiscal conservative restaurant owners are having to shut down because no one wants to work for their sorry asses any more. Fiscal conservative landscaping companies are finding that they have to pay more to keep workers.

Y'all been paying any attention to the wages it takes to keep your workers? 

Does it worry you?

I sure hope it does. If you aren't thinking about what it's going to take to keep them they are already looking around.

The reason for those $1200 toilet seats was due to government regulations...

The OEMs could have EASILY made them for much cheaper.

Luckily, they government has FINALLY realized that moving to COTS is better for ALL parties (government, contractors, taxpayers, etc)... they still impost too many scope creep requirements that it damps that out, but...it's better.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

the workers are going Galt, you might say.

Magic of the marketplace yo.

Don't like your job? Now is a good time to look around.

Who could have predicted a labor supply crunch after tightening visa workers availability? 

All those jobs the brown people are stealing that no one else wanted.

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

1 minute ago, Ag with kids said:

The reason for those $1200 toilet seats was due to government regulations...

The OEMs could have EASILY made them for much cheaper.

Luckily, they government has FINALLY realized that moving to COTS is better for ALL parties (government, contractors, taxpayers, etc)... they still impost too many scope creep requirements that it damps that out, but...it's better.

No bro. We have things we buy because there is money that gets donated to committee members that have those interests in their district.

Eisenhower warned you. 

[Smax 3800]

52 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Fiscal conservatism is bullshit. They spend plenty, mostly guns and 1200 dollar toilet seats for bombers.

Biggest deficits are under Republican administrations.

Try again.

I thought this was about wages and shit like that?

Fiscal conservative restaurant owners are having to shut down because no one wants to work for their sorry asses any more. Fiscal conservative landscaping companies are finding that they have to pay more to keep workers.

Y'all been paying any attention to the wages it takes to keep your workers? 

Does it worry you?

I sure hope it does. If you aren't thinking about what it's going to take to keep them they are already looking around.

 

It's going to be interesting to see 5-7 months down the road with no more government tit to suck on how many of these menial skilled laborers are still holding out

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Magic of the marketplace yo.

Don't like your job? Now is a good time to look around.

Who could have predicted a labor supply crunch after tightening visa workers availability? 

All those jobs the brown people are stealing that no one else wanted.

 

Wait- does @Ag with kids tip in this scenario where the market forces wages up  or only when the workers are patriotically accepting minimum wage?

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

1 minute ago, Smax said:

 

It's going to be interesting to see 5-7 months down the road with no more government tit to suck on how many of these menial skilled laborers are still holding out

Surly exclusive: trust funder speaks out against the dole.

[Ag with kids 581]

16 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

No bro. We have things we buy because there is money that gets donated to committee members that have those interests in their district.

Eisenhower warned you. 

I see you've never worked in that industry...smdh

[WhatTheBuck 28712]

I feel sorry for those kids.

[Ag with kids 581]

14 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Wait- does @Ag with kids tip in this scenario where the market forces wages up  or only when the workers are patriotically accepting minimum wage?

Oh yeah...they're doing it patriotically.....

But, how would I know if the market had set the wage or the government?  Or if the government had raised the market wage higher due to external forces...

If the government was not trying to manipulate the market, then maybe the market could actually set the labor clearing price....

But, then, I'm not the most fiscally conservative person here like you...

[washparkhorn 9935]

25 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Magic of the marketplace yo.

Don't like your job? Now is a good time to look around.

Adam Smith (the Father of Capitalism for the SEC illiterates) approves this message. 

[Smax 3800]

33 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Surly exclusive: trust funder speaks out against the dole.

 

We have no control over who our grand parent/parents are, its not like I've kicked back my entire life and did nothing but hookers and blow all my life. Yes I've had a huge advantage as have many on this site but so does that mean I must refrain from giving my opinion on issues? If so lets go through everyones background here, I'm sure we can find reason to eliminate all from voicing their opinions on issue

 

 

Edited September 17, 2021 by Smax

[Willfully Horn 7915]

27 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

We have no control over who our grand parent/parents are, its not like I've kicked back my entire life and did nothing but hookers and blow all my life. Yes I've had a huge advantage as have many on this site but so does that mean I must refrain from giving my opinion on issues? If so lets go through everyones background here, I'm sure we can find reason to eliminate all from voicing their opinions on issue

 

 

Context =|= cancel, cotton lifer.

[Ag with kids 581]

58 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I feel sorry for those kids.

OOOOOOOOOHHHHH...Burn.

You sure got me on that one.  Damn!  You can go tell all your bros how you burned this Aggy on Surly!!!!

[Willfully Horn 7915]

@Ag with kids
 

*aggy

alligator arms

Edited September 17, 2021 by Willfully Horn
Mention