2020 Dems: Iowa (how it works and what to look for)

[bad_teammate 13220]

The 2020 Democratic caucus is tomorrow: Monday, February 3rd.

Iowans will gather together in 1678 different precinct locations across the state. Up for grabs are 49 pledged delegates to be divvied up among the candidates according to their final share of the vote in the precincts.

Here's how it will work, for those of you who are interested but don't know:

Voters show up at 6:30 (doors close at 7, no entry after that) and enter the caucus and gather with their #1 candidate's precinct captain. The venues are chosen based on expected turnout, with some precincts expecting thousands and some expecting dozens.

ROUND ONE - First Count

Once the doors lock and everyone has gone to their #1 choice, the first count is made. Everyone fills out a voter card and gives it to the overall precinct coordinator who is from the Democratic Party national. This is called something like "Primary Candidate Preference" , but the media will probably call it the "First Count".

This is the only point in the process where things look like a normal primary vote. All voters are counted and then the individual candidates' voters are counted. Simple math is done to determine percentages. (Klobuchar 34%, Bloomberg 25%, Bennet 19%, Yang 12%, Steyer 7%, Warren 2%, Biden 1%)

This number WILL be reported to the media this year (it usually isn't). So once campaigns get word of high numbers, they will immediately start crowing about success before the caucus is even over. You might see a big difference in results from the First Count to whatever comes out of the end of the sausage-making process.

ROUND TWO - Final Count

If your candidate is at/above threshold (15%), you have to stay there. Even if you're an Amy man and a hot girl in the Yang group gives you the eye and pantomimes a BJ if you switch, you're not allowed to. (I think blowjobs in that context are electioneering and can get you arrested anyway.)

If your candidate is below threshold (15%), you can switch. (Or just leave shouting, "GABBARD OR BUST MOTHERFUCKER!")

There will be a 15 minute period during which you try to lure (Yang girl) or harass (Bernie Bro who threatens to rape people who don't come over to the Bern Dawg) people over to your candidate or decide to move to either an already-viable candidate or to a candidate who would hit viability with your help. (Joking aside, campaign loyalists will bring like cookies and brownies and offer them as temptations. Money itself isn't legal, I don't think, but I know for sure that you can bribe with food which is hilarious.)

At the end of the 15 minutes, if you're still in an area with a candidate below threshold, you are given an awkward look by everyone and made to feel very uncomfortable. And you have to leave like a dumb loser who doesn't even know math. People might throw things at you and the Bernie Bro will call your mother a whore (which she probably is).

New voter cards are given out and a "Final Candidate Preference" count is made.

This will also be reported by the media. Campaigns who gained a lot from the reshuffle will crow about how this shows that they are unifying and well-liked and viable once other losers drop out. So while the toxic rapist misogynistic transphobic pedophiles of the Bernie campaign might get a high First Count, their Final Count won't grow once others realize that ritual cannibalism is required to be a Bro.

(Klobuchar 35%, Bloomber 25%, Bennet 20%, Yang 20%) (Steyer, Warren, Biden go Buh-Bye)

ROUND THREE - Delegate Allocation

"But b_t," the observant ones among you will have thought, "if there are only 49 delegates to be awarded and 1678 precincts, how are the delegates awarded?"

Well, dumbass, here's how that goes...

There is a formula for delegate selection that determines how many people from each precinct go to a convention held at the county level. These county-level conventions are held in late March. The Iowa Democratic Party will then use the county convention results to determine the allocation of delegates for the national Democratic convention.

Sounds stupid right? Bet your ass it is!

[bad_teammate 13220]

Final Prediction (for Final Count):

Bernie: 26%
Warren: 22%
Buttigieg: 18%
Biden: 14%
Klobuchar: 13%  
Yang: 7%

(Is this wishful thinking? Yes it is, shut up.)

[Continental Op 3934]

Why can they hand out cookies but not blowjobs? 

[bad_teammate 13220]

Fucking fascists, man

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

You’re a Bernie bro and I’m a warren guy. Assuming both of our candidates are viable, is there no opportunity for us to try to recruit the other to our side? From the description it sounds like only supporters of non-viable candidates can be recruited. Which is dumb. If if Grandpa from the corn farm comes in as a mild biden supporter because he’s heard of him and biden is at 17% he’s stuck with him and never had an opportunity to learn more about other candidates that aren’t blubbering idiots.

[bad_teammate 13220]

Nope. If your candidate is viable you are locked in.

The doors open at 6:30 and the process starts at 7, so that 30+ minutes is the time you have to read the room and horse trade among the locks or near-locks.

[henrygandorf 29194]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

The 2020 Democratic caucus is tomorrow: Monday, February 3rd.

Iowans will gather together in 1678 different precinct locations across the state. Up for grabs are 49 pledged delegates to be divvied up among the candidates according to their final share of the vote in the precincts.

Here's how it will work, for those of you who are interested but don't know:

Voters show up at 6:30 (doors close at 7, no entry after that) and enter the caucus and gather with their #1 candidate's precinct captain. The venues are chosen based on expected turnout, with some precincts expecting thousands and some expecting dozens.

ROUND ONE - First Count

Once the doors lock and everyone has gone to their #1 choice, the first count is made. Everyone fills out a voter card and gives it to the overall precinct coordinator who is from the Democratic Party national. This is called something like "Primary Candidate Preference" , but the media will probably call it the "First Count".

This is the only point in the process where things look like a normal primary vote. All voters are counted and then the individual candidates' voters are counted. Simple math is done to determine percentages. (Klobuchar 34%, Bloomberg 25%, Bennet 19%, Yang 12%, Steyer 7%, Warren 2%, Biden 1%)

This number WILL be reported to the media this year (it usually isn't). So once campaigns get word of high numbers, they will immediately start crowing about success before the caucus is even over. You might see a big difference in results from the First Count to whatever comes out of the end of the sausage-making process.

ROUND TWO - Final Count

If your candidate is at/above threshold (15%), you have to stay there. Even if you're an Amy man and a hot girl in the Yang group gives you the eye and pantomimes a BJ if you switch, you're not allowed to. (I think blowjobs in that context are electioneering and can get you arrested anyway.)

If your candidate is below threshold (15%), you can switch. (Or just leave shouting, "GABBARD OR BUST MOTHERFUCKER!")

There will be a 15 minute period during which you try to lure (Yang girl) or harass (Bernie Bro who threatens to rape people who don't come over to the Bern Dawg) people over to your candidate or decide to move to either an already-viable candidate or to a candidate who would hit viability with your help. (Joking aside, campaign loyalists will bring like cookies and brownies and offer them as temptations. Money itself isn't legal, I don't think, but I know for sure that you can bribe with food which is hilarious.)

At the end of the 15 minutes, if you're still in an area with a candidate below threshold, you are given an awkward look by everyone and made to feel very uncomfortable. And you have to leave like a dumb loser who doesn't even know math. People might throw things at you and the Bernie Bro will call your mother a whore (which she probably is).

New voter cards are given out and a "Final Candidate Preference" count is made.

This will also be reported by the media. Campaigns who gained a lot from the reshuffle will crow about how this shows that they are unifying and well-liked and viable once other losers drop out. So while the toxic rapist misogynistic transphobic pedophiles of the Bernie campaign might get a high First Count, their Final Count won't grow once others realize that ritual cannibalism is required to be a Bro.

(Klobuchar 35%, Bloomber 25%, Bennet 20%, Yang 20%) (Steyer, Warren, Biden go Buh-Bye)

ROUND THREE - Delegate Allocation

"But b_t," the observant ones among you will have thought, "if there are only 49 delegates to be awarded and 1678 precincts, how are the delegates awarded?"

Well, dumbass, here's how that goes...

There is a formula for delegate selection that determines how many people from each precinct go to a convention held at the county level. These county-level conventions are held in late March. The Iowa Democratic Party will then use the county convention results to determine the allocation of delegates for the national Democratic convention.

Sounds stupid right? Bet your ass it is!

progressives are getting worse at comedy and that’s the end of my assessment. 

[BigOrange1 6442]

feels like a very contrived process, but go bernie and liz!

[bad_teammate 13220]

progressives are getting worse at comedy and that’s the end of my assessment. 

You a big Crowder fan?

Why are you this salty when the vote hasn't even happened? This is why you can't trust centrists, they collapse before the battle.

[Fudge Nuggets 19209]

Fuck Iowa.  New Hampshire can fist itself as well.

These two states that probably least represent the country as a whole have way too much influence for their podunk status.

[WhatTheBuck 28794]

Don't tell me about the pain. Show me the baby. 

[406W30th 1111]

C'mon Bennet. Make us dream.

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

I'm just relieved that primary voting starts today. A whole fucking year of candidates campaigning in Iowa finally ends. 

[Biff Tannen 45695]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm just relieved that primary voting starts today. A whole fucking year of candidates campaigning in Iowa finally ends. 

So much this.  I expect Bernie to win, but I really really want Warren to be top 3 and close to 1.  I remind myself that Ted fucking Cruz destroyed in Iowa in 2016 though, so this isn't the end all be all.

[bad_teammate 13220]

From a "BERNIE WINS CRUSH ALL CONTENDERS" perspective, I'd want something like Bernie 30, Buttigieg 22, Biden 15, Warren 12. The progressives go to Bernie, the name-recognition people go to Bernie, and Pete is elevated for those who are terrified of taxes rising. Bernie vs. Pete is a good battle going into states that aren't 90% white.

From an "I want progressive values to win" perspective, what I ACTUALLY want is more like what I posted earlier: Bernie & Liz at 1 & 2, everyone else jumbled up markedly behind.

The nightmare scenario?
Biden 30%, Buttigieg 22%, Warren 15%, Bernie 12%.

If that happens, then y'all can drink freely from b_t's tears.

Edited February 3, 2020 by bad_teammate

[bad_teammate 13220]

If this projection holds, I don't see Klobuchar or Buttigieg making it to Super Tuesday. In fact, they would be very smart to drop out after NH because the South Carolina and Nevada results would be absolutely humiliating. (I think Kamala dropped out because she knew she was going to finish 3rd or lower in her home state.) Career considerations start coming into play.

This is not a good result for Warren, either, if it holds. She needs 2nd behind Bernie if Bernie wins. Not just that, but she needs to be the #1 recipient of crossover voters for the 2nd round if the "unity" message is going to stick.

If Sanders gets the most crossover in the 2nd round AND gets the most first-round votes? That's... big.

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

I would be pretty shocked by that result in regards to Biden whooping Buttigieg like that in Iowa. 

But yes, if Pete does not hit 15% in Iowa then he drops out before Nevada IMO. 

 

[DaysOff 7962]

Fuck Iowa.  New Hampshire can fist itself as well.
These two states that probably least represent the country as a whole have way too much influence for their podunk status.

My wife asks me this every 4 years. My only answer is tradition, so they must all be aggy.

[bad_teammate 13220]

Everything I've heard (which is not much because I'm not some super-plugged-in insider I just am on some Bernie volunteer channels) is that Pete has a good team on the ground and that he's focusing a lot on rural precincts that are high bang-for-buck. But there are two other big names who also have good ground games.

A huge difference between Bernie's ground game and the Warren/Pete ground game is how they are controlled. Bernie's network is bigger, but it's less centrally organized. Warren's and Pete's teams are plugged into the mothership for orders while Bernie's crew is far more distributed.

So what's happening in some places is that Bernie's volunteers don't want to drive 6 hours from Iowa City where there are college bars (and girls/guys) to knock on 50 doors in some backwater that's basically South Dakota. But Warren's and Pete's paid staffers will take the order and go knock on those doors.

So you get more people doing more work, but it's not always expertly targeted.

[406W30th 1111]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Everything I've heard (which is not much because I'm not some super-plugged-in insider I just am on some Bernie volunteer channels) is that Pete has a good team on the ground and that he's focusing a lot on rural precincts that are high bang-for-buck. But there are two other big names who also have good ground games.

A huge difference between Bernie's ground game and the Warren/Pete ground game is how they are controlled. Bernie's network is bigger, but it's less centrally organized. Warren's and Pete's teams are plugged into the mothership for orders while Bernie's crew is far more distributed.

So what's happening in some places is that Bernie's volunteers don't want to drive 6 hours from Iowa City where there are college bars (and girls/guys) to knock on 50 doors in some backwater that's basically South Dakota. But Warren's and Pete's paid staffers will take the order and go knock on those doors.

So you get more people doing more work, but it's not always expertly targeted.

We are all Robert Salt from this gif

[Biff Tannen 45695]

6 minutes ago, 406W30th said:

We are all Robert Salt from this gif

I'm just laughing that you know his name.

[Fudge Nuggets 19209]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

So much this.  I expect Bernie to win, but I really really want Warren to be top 3 and close to 1.  I remind myself that Ted fucking Cruz destroyed in Iowa in 2016 though, so this isn't the end all be all.

Rick Santorum cleaned up in 2012.  Let that sink in.

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Everything I've heard (which is not much because I'm not some super-plugged-in insider I just am on some Bernie volunteer channels) is that Pete has a good team on the ground and that he's focusing a lot on rural precincts that are high bang-for-buck. But there are two other big names who also have good ground games.

A huge difference between Bernie's ground game and the Warren/Pete ground game is how they are controlled. Bernie's network is bigger, but it's less centrally organized. Warren's and Pete's teams are plugged into the mothership for orders while Bernie's crew is far more distributed.

So what's happening in some places is that Bernie's volunteers don't want to drive 6 hours from Iowa City where there are college bars (and girls/guys) to knock on 50 doors in some backwater that's basically South Dakota. But Warren's and Pete's paid staffers will take the order and go knock on those doors.

So you get more people doing more work, but it's not always expertly targeted.

The maps below are where candidates campaigned as of Jan. 15th. Warren wasn't really targeting that many rural areas. In fact, she pretty much ignored most of Western Iowa. 

 

[Fozzz 152]

Hoping for Bernie, Mayo Pete, Biden, and Warren bringing up the rear.  

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

LMAO one more poll just came out. What a shitshow. 

 

[bad_teammate 13220]

I wonder if they will just keep polling Iowa after the caucus for fun.

[Biff Tannen 45695]

All this shows me is that Iowa doesn't know what the fuck they are doing.

[bad_teammate 13220]

33 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

LMAO one more poll just came out. What a shitshow. 

 

Compared to their January poll

Buttigieg +3
Sanders +3
Klobuchar ~
Warren -3
Biden -9

[bad_teammate 13220]

Wow, so much for unity, Warrenbros!

lol

DEMOCRACY!

THIS SPOILER IS FOR BERNIE BROS ONLY

NO LIBZ ALLOWED

 

if you watch the videos/pictures in the thread, it's perfect. For Sanders: a multi-racial, multi-generational coalition. For Warren: a white girl in her 20s who won't go over to the minorities

Edited February 3, 2020 by bad_teammate

[HRSchenker 2271]

Every poll I've seen has Sanders leading by a lot so I'm not really buying these doomsday scenarios of Pete winning by 7% or 5 candidates getting 12-15% each. But so goes Iowa, so goes the nominee right? I think the last time the eventual nominee didn't win Iowa was 1992 when Harkin swept the whole thing. I don't think it really counts since Harkin was the hometown kid.

[gmr548 16590]

42 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Every poll I've seen has Sanders leading by a lot so I'm not really buying these doomsday scenarios of Pete winning by 7% or 5 candidates getting 12-15% each. But so goes Iowa, so goes the nominee right? I think the last time the eventual nominee didn't win Iowa was 1992 when Harkin swept the whole thing. I don't think it really counts since Harkin was the hometown kid.

Ted Cruz won Iowa last time for the Rs. Hillary and Bernie essentially tied there, which was hardly an inspiring victory for Clinton given the huge name recognition advantage.

[High Plains Drifter 11050]

Pos repped OP just for the avatar.

[High Plains Drifter 11050]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

All this shows me is that Iowa doesn't know what the fuck they are doing.

 

Seriously.

Can we just build a wall around Iowa?

[washparkhorn 9939]

51 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Every poll I've seen has Sanders leading by a lot so I'm not really buying these doomsday scenarios of Pete winning by 7% or 5 candidates getting 12-15% each. But so goes Iowa, so goes the nominee right? I think the last time the eventual nominee didn't win Iowa was 1992 when Harkin swept the whole thing. I don't think it really counts since Harkin was the hometown kid.

Correct. And no one has lost the Democratic Nomination when winning Iowa and New Hampshire. 

Not so much in the Republican Party. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

I guess kudos for actually admitting the Democratic Establishment worries more about Bernie than 4 more years of Trump. 

https://twitter.com/blakeleymusic/status/1224370944258519041

 

[Biff Tannen 45695]

3 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

I guess kudos for actually admitting the Democratic Establishment worries more about Bernie than 4 more years of Trump. 

https://twitter.com/blakeleymusic/status/1224370944258519041

 

Well that's dumb.  Shut up MSNBC.

[SquishMitten 10421]

Didn't see this asked above. Since the threshold is 15%, what if the first vote is split to where nobody gets to 15%? With 7+ candidates, that's mathematically possible. Do they just go home? Maybe more realistically, what if the first vote ended with something like: Bernie 15.4%, Warran/Buttigieg/Biden/Klobuchar 14.9%, Yang 12%, Bloomberg 7%, Steyer 6%. Does Bernie automatically win the precinct since no other candidate is "viable"? Then in the second vote, he goes from a very narrow 0.5% margin to a 100% win?

[troph 24895]

people say stupid things.  next up on news at 11p.

 

the only good thing about this caucus is knowing the process of getting that tub of lard out of the white house has started.

 

I'll change my fucking name to resident tranny if any dem beats him in the general.  don't care. just had sex.  I mean Bernie just beat Trump.  feels so good I has confused.

[bad_teammate 13220]

3 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Didn't see this asked above. Since the threshold is 15%, what if the first vote is split to where nobody gets to 15%? With 7+ candidates, that's mathematically possible. Do they just go home?

Yes.

It's a very transparent process. The precinct captain will be shouting out all the numbers and will be updating people on the status. It's not like a secret ballot where everyone is surprised that no one hit threshold. Remember, everyone is talking to each other and trying to convince each other the whole time.

It's more like, "OK you assholes, is someone going to move around or are we all going home early?"

Someone will bluff, and then the process fires up.

Or no one budges and the precinct reports the first count and reports zero viable candidates for the second count. I haven't ever heard of this happening, but it sounds hilarious.

Quote

Maybe more realistically, what if the first vote ended with something like: Bernie 15.4%, Warran/Buttigieg/Biden/Klobuchar 14.9%, Yang 12%, Bloomberg 7%, Steyer 6%. Does Bernie automatically win the precinct since no other candidate is "viable"? Then in the second vote, he goes from a very narrow 0.5% margin to a 100% win?

If Candidate A is the only one at/above 15% at the end of the first round, then at the start of the second round Candidate A's voters are locked in and everyone else can either join Candidate A or leave.

The reason they have that second round is that the total number of votes Candidate A ends up with actually matters at those later county/state conventions.

But again, in your example the coordinator would be saying, "Hey everybody Klobuchar needs one more person to hit viability!" or "Yang gang, y'all are 5 people short" so it would only happen if people were being stubborn. Which, hey, that's their right.

[Biff Tannen 45695]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

It's more like, "OK you assholes, is someone going to move around or are we all going home early?"

This is the surly caucus.

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

The political revolution has begun. 

 

[bad_teammate 13220]

That van is basically Crispus Attucks.

 

[GSU&UT 1798]

5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

The political revolution has begun. 

 

haha, good post

[hayden_horn 11364]

the paris, france satellite caucus has gone hard for warren - 47.1%. bernie was a clear second at something like 38%

i didn't know there were so many iowans in paris.

Edited February 3, 2020 by hayden_horn

[troph 24895]

1 minute ago, hayden_horn said:

the paris, france satellite caucus has gone hard for warren - 47.1%. bernie was a clear second at something like 38%

i didn't know there were so many iowans in paris.

don't act like we don't see what you did there and that it was intentional.  intelligence is sexy sexy.  

[InkaUtexas 26018]

Live Iowa Chaos on CNN. Damn this is so much fun to watch! Thanks for the explanation up top. 

[GSU&UT 1798]

Damn, drinking beer in Scotland and doing this doesn't seem so bad.

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

I believe there were 20 people at the Paris caucus. 

 

Here are the olds in Florida. 

 

[hayden_horn 11364]

Sanders with 1 in florida. Wow. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

20 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

Sanders with 1 in florida. Wow. 

Sanders +6 v. Trump in Florida.

Biden +2.

Warren +2. 

Buttigieg tie. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/FAU_Florida_Jan_2020.pdf