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2020 Dems: Iowa (how it works and what to look for)

bad_teammate

By bad_teammate
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13194

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4 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

In round two, can all the rejects get together for 15% and pick a candidate that was unviable in round 1?

I'm way too drunk to answer this confidently I am very sorry Dbeasy. 

[edit]

I'm pretty sure "yes" is the answer.

Edited by bad_teammate
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BrickHorn
BrickHorn

Here’s the thing: I’m not jazzed about Pete or Biden or Bloomberg.  But if the various Dem factions are going to demand perfection from their candidate, then we’re going to lose again to a Republican

Brothahorn
Brothahorn
Al_4_ISU
Al_4_ISU

Just got done reading this entire thread.  Your hate warms my heart.  Y'all like bacon?  Then shut the fuck up and tolerate our political absurdity.

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12080

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How bad a night would it have to get for Biden’s staff to start questioning his long term viability? If he tanks in Iowa, loses NH and then looks like he is fading in SC is the writing on the wall for the big money donors to move to another candidate?

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15047

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CNN just showed a precint where uncommitted just barely made viable at 15.4%.  Lulz, why?  Presumably they still have to join a viable group for the 2nd round right?

I think they can stay undecided, thus keeping delegates away from the other candidates?
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Pancho

Pancho 44757

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8 minutes ago, WBT said:

CNN just showed a precint where uncommitted just barely made viable at 15.4%.  Lulz, why?  Presumably they still have to join a viable group for the 2nd round right?

Some bro a Grinnell explained it like this--if they can get undecideds to 15%, it allows them to give 1 delegate to each of the remaining candidates or something like that.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25905

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15 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

As a Democrat? Iowa winner has won pretty much every recent nomination. Someone named the last year they didn't earlier in the thread I think, but it was a while back. Of course, that includes some sitting Presidents and a VP, as well as what was essentially a tie in 2016, so that streak as as tenuous as one that long can be.

Thanks for clarifying. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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Just now, Laxtonto said:

Yep and I wonder how much that is a pattern that will keep happening nationally or is if a Midwest thing 

Might be a national thing based on SCAR polling. If Biden and Pete split the old moderate vote, Bernie has a much better chance

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12457

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Got home about 30 minutes ago.  Pete and Amy split my precinct.  Attendance was up from '16.  Super white rural county on the Minnesota border, 50 miles in from Wisconsin.  We went by 20 to Obama in '12 and 20 to Trump in '16.  Biggest swing in the nation.

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Old Freak Nasty

Old Freak Nasty 821

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4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Got home about 30 minutes ago.  Pete and Amy split my precinct.  Attendance was up from '16.  Super white rural county on them Minnesota border, 50 miles in from Wisconsin.  We went by 20 to Obama in '12 and 20 to Trump in '16.  Biggest swing in the nation.

As a Klobuchar supporter, I think I need to caucus with another candidate now.  If she can't clean up on the northern border, she's toast.  Not only in Iowa, but nationally.  She needed to surprise and her pathway to doing so was to kill it in the counties near Minnesota.  I honestly thought it was going to happen the way she was trending the last couple days.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10958

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6 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Got home about 30 minutes ago.  Pete and Amy split my precinct.  Attendance was up from '16.  Super white rural county on them Minnesota border, 50 miles in from Wisconsin.  We went by 20 to Obama in '12 and 20 to Trump in '16.  Biggest swing in the nation.

How close was Biden and was he viable?

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12457

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2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I'm not gonna lie...I like it. It puts a face to it and seems lighthearted and communal.

I don't mind it, but my precinct is tiny and everyone knows everyone so it's civil and moves quick.  No one wants to be there all night, and even fringe candidate supporters accept their fate quickly and decisively.

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10403

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Tapa won’t let me quote, but re: the coin flip... seems really stupid when I first saw it, but in this situation it’s basically the more efficient/fair version of walking outside, blindly picking a single voter (from a group of knowledgeable voters) off the street, and asking them to decide between the two candidates.

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6th Street

6th Street 6392

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1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I don't mind it, but my precinct is tiny and everyone knows everyone so it's civil and moves quick.  No one wants to be there all night, and even fringe candidate supporters accept their fate quickly and decisively.

What about people who are at work like at restaurants or stores? They can't vote? And what if you have a young kid that needs to go to bed?

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