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2020 Dems: Iowa (how it works and what to look for)

bad_teammate

By bad_teammate
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BrickHorn
BrickHorn

Here’s the thing: I’m not jazzed about Pete or Biden or Bloomberg.  But if the various Dem factions are going to demand perfection from their candidate, then we’re going to lose again to a Republican

Brothahorn
Brothahorn
Al_4_ISU
Al_4_ISU

Just got done reading this entire thread.  Your hate warms my heart.  Y'all like bacon?  Then shut the fuck up and tolerate our political absurdity.

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elfenix

elfenix 34238

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, EMAWesome said:
There is going to be absolutely no way that whoever finishes second is not going to claim this was rigged against them and absolutely no way that whoever wins is not going to have to defend themselves from the accusation all the way up to Super Tuesday.  The Democrats truly have the Midas touch.  Everything they touch turns into an exhaust system.

 

rewind a few years:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-cruz-idUSMTZSAPEC23ZBL9YS

Quote

Trump accuses Cruz of stealing Iowa caucuses through 'fraud'

 

Edited by elfenix
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elfenix

elfenix 34238

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Tom said:
 
That sounds really believable and I'm sure it really happened.  There's no doubt in my mind that the listeners who call into hackey conservative AM radio propaganda aren't just as credible as the hosts.
 

The caller went on to say that he needed to ask for directions to the football stadium 6 times and everyone he talked to was very nice and remarked about how much they were looking forward to the contest and then the caller said he was going to encourage his daughter to go to school there.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29354

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Just saw the $63k app...holy loly shit. Either that company is operating at an enormous loss or this thing was cobbled together by two dudes in a couple weeks plus a few days of testing. You’ve got ~1,700 user profiles for the precincts, third party data security app fees, servers/rackspace fees, etc. With all the hard costs, you don’t have enough for any legitimate dev.

I mean, $63k?!? That would barely cover half the cost of buying Excel for each precinct. If you can’t even afford Excel, you shouldn’t be building an app.

That being said, I’m pretty happy with the end result. Iowa has way too much influence on the process. They’ve managed to negate that, and the party is better off for it.

This is the Democratic consulting grift at work. The point wasn't to make a working product, it was to make something they could sell to campaigns as necessary.

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29190

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Posted

btw, for those saying "the republican iowa caucus didn't declare a winner in in 2012 for two weeks", it actually was worse.  they went into it on cnn.  they actually declared romney the winner that night.  then two weeks later, changed it and said that santorum actually won.  talk about not being able to capitalize on the iowa momentum.  this is bad, but that's fucked.  think if they declared warren the winner live last night, then after nh and south caro, they came back and said, "wait, bernie actually won my bad lol."

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29354

Posted
Posted
Just now, bad_teammate said:

Step 1: Get $63k from DNC to build app
Step 2: Hire a Malaysian woman on Upwork to build the app for $3k
Step 3: Spend the remaining $60k on every product advertised on Pod Save America

Ladies and gentlemen... THE DEMOCRATS

I'm sure everyone had to pay fees to access the app too. The Dem consulting grift is solid money if you can work your way into their networks.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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If Buttgieg actually won--as seems entirely possible (but who the fuck actually knows), it seems very likely that you could have three or four different winners of the first four primaries/caucuses.  Buttgieg wins in Iowa, Sanders wins in New Hampshire, Biden wins in South Carolina, and someone wins in Nevada (who the fuck knows about Nevada--it's a super-low turnout caucus, so you could see Bloomberg win that one).

I'm not sure we've ever had that kind of situation, and it means that Super Tuesday is going to be determinative.

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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4922

Posted
Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Just saw the $63k app...holy loly shit. Either that company is operating at an enormous loss or this thing was cobbled together by two dudes in a couple weeks plus a few days of testing. You’ve got ~1,700 user profiles for the precincts, third party data security app fees, servers/rackspace fees, etc. With all the hard costs, you don’t have enough for any legitimate dev.

I mean, $63k?!? That would barely cover half the cost of buying Excel for each precinct. If you can’t even afford Excel, you shouldn’t be building an app.

That being said, I’m pretty happy with the end result. Iowa has way too much influence on the process. They’ve managed to negate that, and the party is better off for it.

If we believe the reports this guy Gerard Niemira is CEO of Shadow Inc. and you just probably stated having more knowledge about what it takes to develop a successful secure application then he has knowledge with his History major. It looks like he flunked out of Boston University when I see stuff like that on a resume. I like how these guys on TV talk about how little it takes to develop an application. Yea if it is your kid in high school. Developing a secure application is no joke. The ways these things can be attacked is overwhelming.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/gerard-niemira-aaa9b73/

 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14596

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

If Buttgieg actually won--as seems entirely possible (but who the fuck actually knows), it seems very likely that you could have three or four different winners of the first four primaries/caucuses.  Buttgieg wins in Iowa, Sanders wins in New Hampshire, Biden wins in South Carolina, and someone wins in Nevada (who the fuck knows about Nevada--it's a super-low turnout caucus, so you could see Bloomberg win that one).

I'm not sure we've ever had that kind of situation, and it means that Super Tuesday is going to be determinative.

Exactly and there’s Bloomberg with massive spending and organizations in all of those states.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45682

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Step 1: Get $63k from DNC to build app
Step 2: Hire a Malaysian woman on Upwork to build the app for $3k
Step 3: Spend the remaining $60k on every product advertised on Pod Save America

Ladies and gentlemen... THE DEMOCRATS

That's a lot of Quip toothbrushes.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

winner, loser, i don't care.  the lack of numbers is terrifying.  2/3s the participation of Barack in 2008.

 

but the demographics for [my preferred candidate] are particularly bad in Iowa!  They aren't going to come out for [him/her] like they did for [checks notes] a black guy.

Several people on NPR were interviewed in the past couple of weeks and weren't enthused because there were so many candidates. I'd hold my pessimism until after Super Tuesday's numbers come out.

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10405

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Posted
1 minute ago, DanTheHorn said:

If we believe the reports this guy Gerard Niemira is CEO of Shadow Inc. and you just probably stated having more knowledge about what it takes to develop a successful secure application then he does with his History major. It looks like he flunked out of Boston University when I see stuff like that on a resume. I like how these guys on TV talk about how little it takes to develop an application. Yea if it is your kid in high school. Developing a secure application is no joke. The ways these things can be attacked is overwhelming.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/gerard-niemira-aaa9b73/

 

Well, as an owner of a company that builds apps for financial institutions, I sure hope I have more knowledge about building a successful secure application. We obviously have far more restrictions due to holding so much personal info, credit history, etc so I'm not expecting them to be paying $500k+ just for security, but I don't know how you get anything for $63k.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14596

Posted
Posted
Just now, GSU&UT said:

Several people on NPR were interviewed in the past couple of weeks and weren't enthused because there were so many candidates. I'd hold my pessimism until after Super Tuesday's numbers come out.

We’ve been told that Bern drives all these new people to the polls.  Was that wrong?

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted
Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

We’ve been told that Bern drives all these new people to the polls.  Was that wrong?

He's possibly going to win Iowa? Not sure what the point is, he may literally get all the delegates in New Hampshire and could dominate California. Several caucus sites last night that were predominately immigrant heavy went like 99% for him, which is exactly what is campaign is trying to do. It's a gamble, but this is literally one data point that isn't going to prove anything.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

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1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

We’ve been told that Bern drives all these new people to the polls.  Was that wrong?

We don't know. We don't have numbers.

If it's down among olds and/or whites specifically? Not a potential Bernie problem.

If it's down among minorities and/or youngs specifically? Potential Bernie problem.

If it's down uniformly across demographics? Not really a Bernie thing.

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WBT

WBT 20565

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

btw, for those saying "the republican iowa caucus didn't declare a winner in in 2012 for two weeks", it actually was worse.  they went into it on cnn.  they actually declared romney the winner that night.  then two weeks later, changed it and said that santorum actually won.  talk about not being able to capitalize on the iowa momentum.  this is bad, but that's fucked.  think if they declared warren the winner live last night, then after nh and south caro, they came back and said, "wait, bernie actually won my bad lol."

Yeah but they said on election night that Romney won by 8 votes and later said Santorum won by 22 votes, or whatever the numbers were.  I'm sure it made a big difference in how the campaigns tried to spin it but to all but the dumbest voters it was apparent the night of the caucus that it was a statistical tie.

Here they still haven't said anything official 16 hours later.  I don't think this is that big of a deal either but in certain ways it is worse.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Are there minorities in Iowa?

Yes? It's super white, but there's minority and immigrant heavy populations in working class areas across the country.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

  

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

91% white caucus. So yeah I don’t care about a state with the demographics of a Trump rally. 

The freaking point is not the overall makeup but the demographics of who support whom.

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10405

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19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The point wasn't to make a working product, it was to make something they could sell to campaigns as necessary.

 

There are campaigns that need a cheap app to count caucus data points? But if you mean their plan was to sell them to states, they said this was funded by both Nevada and Iowa. That only leaves one other potential client (in a process that was already fading away prior to this shitshow). 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15049

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Posted
If we believe the reports this guy Gerard Niemira is CEO of Shadow Inc. and you just probably stated having more knowledge about what it takes to develop a successful secure application then he has knowledge with his History major. It looks like he flunked out of Boston University when I see stuff like that on a resume. I like how these guys on TV talk about how little it takes to develop an application. Yea if it is your kid in high school. Developing a secure application is no joke. The ways these things can be attacked is overwhelming.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/gerard-niemira-aaa9b73/
 


That is a background of someone who has no idea how to develop software.
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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15049

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Well, as an owner of a company that builds apps for financial institutions, I sure hope I have more knowledge about building a successful secure application. We obviously have far more restrictions due to holding so much personal info, credit history, etc so I'm not expecting them to be paying $500k+ just for security, but I don't know how you get anything for $63k.

It truly is nonsensical and the fact these idiots bought it is frightening.
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wildcat09

wildcat09 29354

Posted
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2 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

There are campaigns that need a cheap app to count caucus data points? But if you mean their plan was to sell them to states, they said this was funded by both Nevada and Iowa. That only leaves one other potential client (in a process that was already fading away prior to this shitshow). 

I'm not familiar with how the app was supposed to work but I read somewhere that some of the campaigns paid them licensing fees. It may be that initial tallies were to be submitted to the state party by the campaigns themselves, to then be verified by state party representatives. The more inefficiencies that can be built in, the more opportunities to make money, and the campaigns themselves have the most money. That's generally how the consulting class grift works, they basically exist to legally skim from the campaigns by selling them useless bullshit.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
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1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:


It truly is nonsensical and the fact these idiots bought it is frightening.

As a developer myself I immediately knew what probably happened. Everyone in the DNC knowing each other so there's little outsight oversight as to who is developing this crap. An app that clearly had problems before it was used and almost certainly not stress tested and probably little integration testing. People not trusting it and the Iowa Democratic Party stupidly not having more people to man phone calls (hour long wait times from what I heard).

 

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HenryJames

HenryJames 66049

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Posted
3 minutes ago, CHEF DIESEL said:

Reminds me of the Duke of Duval aka George Parr and his ballot box stuffing for LBJ down in San Diego, TX. Ol' Parr was a weasel and UT Law grad who ran things like his dad before him out in Duval and Jim Wells. Hellhole.

Really? 

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10405

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Posted
2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I'm not familiar with how the app was supposed to work but I read somewhere that some of the campaigns paid them licensing fees. It may be that initial tallies were to be submitted to the state party by the campaigns themselves, to then be verified by state party representatives. The more inefficiencies that can be built in, the more opportunities to make money, and the campaigns themselves have the most money. That's generally how the consulting class grift works, they basically exist to legally skim from the campaigns by selling them useless bullshit.

Fair enough. From what I'd heard about it, it seemed like there were only 3 data points being reported. If that is the case, there wouldn't be anything additional the campaigns could use. But I suppose it's possible that while there were only 3 "official" data points reported to the Dem Committee, the app might allow for additional data to be gathered (e.g., demographics for everyone in the room and what they did during the caucus).

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52494

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Posted
10 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

MSNBC made this point, so do with it what you will, but the turnout in Iowa was basically the same as in 2016, and way less than the turnout in 2008 for Obama vs. Hillary.  That is not a great sign for the strength of the candidates.  

With so many more people in the race than last time, plus an incumbent Trump to rally against, that’s actually really disappointing.  

They were all celebrating the Limbaugh news and got too drunk to vote?

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29190

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Posted
23 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

We don't know. We don't have numbers.

If it's down among olds and/or whites specifically? Not a potential Bernie problem.

If it's down among minorities and/or youngs specifically? Potential Bernie problem.

If it's down uniformly across demographics? Not really a Bernie thing.

one of the headlines last night from multiple news outlets, was biden's lack of dominance from the olds.  pete, amy and warren seemed to eat into his supposed advantage with that demo.  low turnout from the olds would be a biden problem.

the takeaways from last night:

-bernie and pete polled well and did well.

-biden underwhelmed and might've finished 5th.  if not for the snafu, that would be the headline today.  still might be. 

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