2020 Dems: Iowa (how it works and what to look for)

[Tuco 5077]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

I love Bernie.

He's watched these incompetent morons screw everything up so he's building a shadow organization to check their work for them.

This is the man we need to reform this broken party.

That would certainly explain the delay in releasing the results.  It shouldn't take more than 8 hours to count the results, regardless of technical issues.  It would take a long time to get to an agreement with lawyers.  

But, if Buttigieg and Klobacher beat Biden, I think Bernie should chose speed over accuracy.  If national polling is to be trusted, this is a race between Bernie and Biden.  This delay is minimizing what appears to be the main story of the caucus: Biden is not the safe moderate choice. And that's his whole platform. And unless Warren beats Bernie, the other narrative is that Bernie is the progressive front runner.  Bitching about a few delegates could be stepping on that narrative.  Iowa is good for a week long news cycle at best.  With the delay, the impeachment vote, and the SOTU, the actual results are not going to get much attention. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Stop spreading conspiracies. It’s not to deny Bernie, or protect Biden. 

Thanks, Iowa, for making this primary 100x stupider than all of 2019 

Chill and read for comprehension. Obviously that kind of thing should be taken with the appropriate salt.

[RomaVicta 29967]

3 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

And Iowa wants to be my latex salesman.

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[elfenix 34331]

2 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Iowa caucus -republicans

2016 Cruz

2012 Santorum

2008 Huckabee

Someone explain why we let these mongoloids in Iowa kick off the primary season with their fucked up process? 

because no one else wants to be subjected to all those tv ads. 

[heso 2814]

1 minute ago, Calihorn said:

 

Lol he knows he got fucking crushed and is grasping at straws. 

[SaucyJack 3500]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

Are there minorities in Iowa?

I am hearing they would rather not participate in this Iowa Cacas. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

Just now, heso said:

Lol he knows he got fucking crushed and is grasping at straws. 

God damn, how many delegates will he even end up with?

[bad_teammate 13224]

3 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

 

WAR JOE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[henrygandorf 29194]

9 minutes ago, elfenix said:

i was unaware that the superbowl required reviewing the accounts of all in attendance to see who they thought the winner should be.

now you know better.

it was a silly analogy pushing back on the attitude that "omg people want same day results on a caucus like they've gotten every other time?!?  how dare they!"  anyone lashing out at cable news or the pundits seems to be intentionally misguided.  they have a right to report the news, and the news is that iowa fell down the stairs while the entire country was watching.

[bad_teammate 13224]

Just got an e-mail from Bernie (personal e-mail, he likes me and knows my name and we are best friends) that they're 60% into the count and it's...

Sanders 29.4%
Buttigieg 24.87%
Warren: 20.65%
Biden: 12.92%
Klobuchar: 11.18%

He also put in a donation link, but he always does that in our personal best friend 1-on-1 e-mails.

[edit] - Even newer Bernie #s!

Edited February 4, 2020 by bad_teammate

[BradInATX 9208]

For all the discussion about turnout, this is exactly what I'd like to see. 

 

This rules no matter who you are. Hopefully the start of a nationwide trend.

 

GTFO olds

 

[Js1 85526]

They’re only releasing like 50% today, right?

 

[Js1 85526]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Just got an e-mail from Bernie (personal e-mail, he likes me and knows my name and we are best friends) that they're 60% into the count and it's...

1) Bernie ("comfortable lead")
2) Pete
3) Liz
4) Amy
5) Joe

He also put in a donation link, but he always does that in our personal best friend 1-on-1 e-mails.

I dared not dream of Bernie #1 and Joe #5.

My god, it's full of stars.

Could be true but I take anything directly from a campaign with a huge grain of salt. It’s like internal polling. “OUR count says...” but meanwhile their count says otherwise and that guy’s says X

[bad_teammate 13224]

Polling and counting votes are not the same things.

But hey, ‾\_(ツ)_/‾

[bad_teammate 13224]

Bernie is being nice here.

Joe is a punk and a sore loser.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Could be true but I take anything directly from a campaign with a huge grain of salt. It’s like internal polling. “OUR count says...” but meanwhile their count says otherwise and that guy’s says X

LOL I would never trust any of these campaigns. Not even Warren’s.  Although, all they’re saying is they will submit the information they have to the IDC to corroborate results.

[Js1 85526]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Polling and counting votes are not the same things.

But (ツ)_/‾

And yet 2 campaigns are claiming victory so ‾\_(ツ)_/‾

[bad_teammate 13224]

I don't think ANY of these campaigns would fabricate statistics. That's insane.

[bad_teammate 13224]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

And yet 2 campaigns are claiming victory so ‾\_(ツ)_/‾

Only 1 has claimed victory.

The other is just releasing their numbers out of transparency in this Dark, Troubled time. (i.e., they are flexing by just pointing at the scoreboard)

[washparkhorn 9939]

These are outstanding numbers for the top three.

https://twitter.com/KyleLovesBernie/status/1224763618324967425

 

[bad_teammate 13224]

Someone play the Curb theme

 

[Tom 2959]

1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

 

 

Kind of weird to see a Democratic candidate suggest a Rudy Guliani presidency at this stage of the campaign, but okay, Andrew Yang.  I see you. 

[Brisketexan 105273]

12 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Just got an e-mail from Bernie (personal e-mail, he likes me and knows my name and we are best friends) that they're 60% into the count and it's...

Sanders 29.4%
Buttigieg 24.87%
Warren: 20.65%
Biden: 12.92%
Klobuchar: 11.18%

He also put in a donation link, but he always does that in our personal best friend 1-on-1 e-mails.

[edit] - Even newer Bernie #s!

And those numbers reveal the fatal flaw in the current Democrat party.  That's an almost perfect 50/50 split between the "progressive brand" candidates (Sanders and Warren) and the "establishment brand" candidates (the other three).

The Dems are perfectly divided, and in the end, will eat their own enough to sabotage their chances of beating the GOP.  All the GOP has to do is sit back and watch the Dems destroy themselves, and they win.

I don't like it -- I wish there was SOME sense of party unity.  And I think among MANY voters, there will be (plenty of people will indeed vote for whoever the nominee is, whatever wing they come from).  But there will be enough who stay home, defect, etc. -- and among those people will be folks who will attack the nominee even after the deal is done.  The GOP doesn't need to beat the Dem nominee; the Dems will do a good enough job of that all on their own.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 

winner, loser, i don't care.  the lack of numbers is terrifying.  2/3s the participation of Barack in 2008.

 

I wouldn’t sweat this.  Many of the Iowa voters I talked to didn’t want to put all the work into evaluating candidates because there were so fucking many of them.  Moreover, the 2020 election is a referendum on Trump first and voting against Trump wasn’t an option in the caucus.  They’ll come out to stick it to Trump regardless of the nominee.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[bad_teammate 13224]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

And those numbers reveal the fatal flaw in the current Democrat party.

Once a Republican, always a Republican.

Always nice to have you in the Dem threads.

[Js1 85526]

 

[immortal13 4059]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Hillary is white as fuck.

 

[Hank Kingsley 21032]

 

[Brisketexan 105273]

Just now, bad_teammate said:

Once a Republican, always a Republican.

Always nice to have you in the Dem threads.

I mean, other than the fact that I vote in Dem primaries, donate only to Dem candidates, will be volunteering for the Dem party on election day, and will only be voting for Dems, yeah.

Sorry that you don't like a non-kool aid drinker seeing what's going on and calling it like he sees it.  The current recipe is one made for self-destructive infighting.  It's just where the party is right now -- it has no defined soul, as it's split literally 50/50.  House divided cannot stand, etc.  I wish that wasn't the case, but it is.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

And those numbers reveal the fatal flaw in the current Democrat party.  That's an almost perfect 50/50 split between the "progressive brand" candidates (Sanders and Warren) and the "establishment brand" candidates (the other three).

The Dems are perfectly divided, and in the end, will eat their own enough to sabotage their chances of beating the GOP.  All the GOP has to do is sit back and watch the Dems destroy themselves, and they win.

I don't like it -- I wish there was SOME sense of party unity.  And I think among MANY voters, there will be (plenty of people will indeed vote for whoever the nominee is, whatever wing they come from).  But there will be enough who stay home, defect, etc. -- and among those people will be folks who will attack the nominee even after the deal is done.  The GOP doesn't need to beat the Dem nominee; the Dems will do a good enough job of that all on their own.

The fatal flaw is the Democratic Party isn’t progressive.  Progressivism should be their baseline platform as opposed to just slowing down fascism by defending existing rights which is what the moderate wing really is.  Also, Bernie is more socialist than progressive and it irks me he gets rolled into the progressive lane with Warren just because some of their policy ideas align. 

[bad_teammate 13224]

It would be a lot more interesting if you had something different to say. It's the same dumb, bland shit take every time.

[bad_teammate 13224]

So all the campaigns have numbers. If Bernie's numbers differed substantively from their own, they would say so. Bernie's campaign would only release those numbers if they were extremely certain that they are just records of what the IDP precinct chairs recorded.

Anything else would be suicide.

[Biff Tannen 45712]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And I think among MANY voters, there will be (plenty of people will indeed vote for whoever the nominee is, whatever wing they come from).  But there will be enough who stay home, defect, etc. -- and among those people will be folks who will attack the nominee even after the deal is done.

Whomever could  you be referring to?  Surely not the 30% of people who are "in the lead" right now.

[Blotto 23568]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

And those numbers reveal the fatal flaw in the current Democrat party.  That's an almost perfect 50/50 split between the "progressive brand" candidates (Sanders and Warren) and the "establishment brand" candidates (the other three).

The Dems are perfectly divided, and in the end, will eat their own enough to sabotage their chances of beating the GOP.  All the GOP has to do is sit back and watch the Dems destroy themselves, and they win.

I don't like it -- I wish there was SOME sense of party unity.  And I think among MANY voters, there will be (plenty of people will indeed vote for whoever the nominee is, whatever wing they come from).  But there will be enough who stay home, defect, etc. -- and among those people will be folks who will attack the nominee even after the deal is done.  The GOP doesn't need to beat the Dem nominee; the Dems will do a good enough job of that all on their own.

That's been my fear all along. They will tear each other up, highlighting the flaws and exploiting information/misinformation along the way. They wont be able help themselves, it's how the system is set up, and what the media wants.

Then after the fact they will have to pretend they all support the last one standing. You saw it with Trump on the GOP side in 2016, but the attacks were all onTrumps character (which he doesnt give a shit about anyway). On the Dem side, they will tear each other's policies apart, leaving some cobbled together shit platform that nobody is happy with.

[WBT 20653]

7 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Once a Republican, always a Republican.

Always nice to have you in the Dem threads.

Quote

Pollster Frank Luntz tested the phrase with a focus group in 2001, and concluded that the only people who really disliked the epithet were highly partisan Democrats.^[10] Political analyst Charlie Cook attributed modern use of the term to force of habit rather than a deliberate epithet by Republicans.^[11] Journalist Ruth Marcus stated that Republicans likely only continue to employ the term because Democrats dislike it,^[2] and Hertzberg calls use of the term "a minor irritation" and also "the partisan equivalent of flashing a gang sign".^[10]

 

[bad_teammate 13224]

Look, I just call it the "Democrat Party" and all I ever say is how incompetent and doomed-to-fail they are.

[wildcat09 29376]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Look, I just call it the "Democrat Party" and all I ever say is how incompetent and doomed-to-fail they are.

Are you familiar with the posting history of a poster here named bad_teammate?

[Brisketexan 105273]

2 minutes ago, Blotto said:

That's been my fear all along. They will tear each other up, highlighting the flaws and exploiting information/misinformation along the way. They wont be able help themselves, it's how the system is set up, and what the media wants.

Then after the fact they will have to pretend they all support the last one standing. You saw it with Trump on the GOP side in 2016, but the attacks were all onTrumps character (which he doesnt give a shit about anyway). On the Dem side, they will tear each other's policies apart, leaving some cobbled together shit platform that nobody is happy with.

Well, and that's the hell of it -- here's some damning of Democrats with faint praise.  Intraparty attacks on a candidate actually MATTER in the Democratic party, because many Democrat voters actually pay attention to issues, strengths, and weaknesses of character, etc., and allow their view of the candidate to be shaped by such thinking.  Most GOP voters, on the other hand, have a simple and straight team loyalty -- see the cult that currently exists.  They don't care about the flaws and failings of any GOP candidate, because having the "(R)" next to the name cures all ills.   The fatal flaw of many Democratic voters is that they actually think and form opinions based on facts and evidence, including negative opinions about candidates in their own party.

Being smart and thinking is political weakness.

[Lidig8r 1874]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean, other than the fact that I vote in Dem primaries, donate only to Dem candidates, will be volunteering for the Dem party on election day, and will only be voting for Dems, yeah.

Sorry that you don't like a non-kool aid drinker seeing what's going on and calling it like he sees it.  The current recipe is one made for self-destructive infighting.  It's just where the party is right now -- it has no defined soul, as it's split literally 50/50.  House divided cannot stand, etc.  I wish that wasn't the case, but it is.

I am curious as to where you see the national Democratic Party in four years. Do you see it continuing to lean ever moreso to the left? Or, will the centrists be able to wrest control back toward the middle a bit more?

[washparkhorn 9939]

Good news from Nevada - the next caucus state:

https://twitter.com/jakeypoohlv/status/1224762402417205248

 

 

[bad_teammate 13224]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

Are you familiar with the posting history of a poster here named bad_teammate?

Oh I love talking about how much the party sucks, but I'm also on here actively championing a candidate and actively encouraging a better future for the party with specific policies and actions.

 

[Brisketexan 105273]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Look, I just call it the "Democrat Party" and all I ever say is how incompetent and doomed-to-fail they are.

Well, to be fair, it's a nicer brand than "openly corrupt, racist, and evil."  I wish it were otherwise, but then, I saw the party lose a fucking election to Donald Fucking Trump, so forgive me if I'm not reserving a wing for them in the political party hall of fame.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

5 hours ago, GSU&UT said:

Glad I avoided this thread with all the dipshits trolling that openly support a fascist. Fuck caucuses and Iowa and the DNC (who gave their blessing for this new system) and boomers who are woefully unprepared to deal with tech.

Also Shadow LLC is some CIA banana republic sounding shit, good lord.

What do you expect from Pete Buttigieg, America's first LGBTQCIA candidate?

4 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Am I the only one on here smitten with that Onion chick? She's probably a grandmother by now, but I've been hot for her for decades now.

57 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I was about to post that same thing.

This is a major, major problem that nobody ever talks about. Working together, the GOP and the Dems have replaced vast swaths of native-born working class laborers with undocumented workers. The GOP excoriates them officially and stokes up the resentment of the displaced, even as they reap the fruits of their labor -- hard work for low pay, no voice at the ballot box, little or no benefits or right to sue if injured on the job, no leverage at all, no ability to unionize. 

IT IS MODERN-DAY SLAVERY.

And the Dems go along with it, I guess for the warm fuzzies of diversity and the promise of maybe one day, years or decades hence, these people or their children or grandchildren will vote Dem out of..gratitude, I guess?

I guess they've never heard that old English doggerel, sung to the melody of O Tannenbaum:

The working class can kiss my arse

I got the foreman's job at last.

You can tell old Joe I'm off the dole

He can stick his Red Flag up his 'ole!.

Which is to say that by the time these people are good to go as citizens and voters, they are ripe for the plucking by the GOP, as there is a never-ending stream of immigrants to exploit and abuse coming in behind them. The Dems offer them nothing but vague promises and platitudes, while the GOP seduces them with hate and resentment and fake patriotism.

It's all a big con.

Sanders used to hold to a policy much like what I outlined above but it appears even he has capitulated to this big lie. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

1 minute ago, Lidig8r said:

I am curious as to where you see the national Democratic Party in four years. Do you see it continuing to lean ever moreso to the left? Or, will the centrists be able to wrest control back toward the middle a bit more?

I think the center-left and progressives are trying to seize the Party back from center-rights and rightists. This is the Democratic Party - not the Republican Party. If the rightists and center-rights want to form a Party - let them do it from ash-heap of their former Republican Party,. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

Looks like Biden got his ass kicked and if not for the reporting snafu Bernie today would be the front runner. The Biden campaign questioning the integrity of the whole process and threatening lawsuits has a very trumpian taste to it. 

[Brisketexan 105273]

2 minutes ago, Lidig8r said:

I am curious as to where you see the national Democratic Party in four years. Do you see it continuing to lean ever moreso to the left? Or, will the centrists be able to wrest control back toward the middle a bit more?

Same place I see the country in 4 years.  Hopelessly divided.  I don't think the needle will move appreciably in either direction.  Whichever wing wins the nomination this year will have some demographics in their favor....but then, when they lose the election to Trump, they'll see a lot of folks become disillusioned with that wing, taking us back to about where we are now: an irreconcilable 50/50 split.

[immortal13 4059]

1 minute ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

What do you expect from Pete Buttigieg, America's first LGBTQCIA candidate?

Am I the only one on here smitten with that Onion chick? She's probably a grandmother by now, but I've been hot for her for decades now.

This is a major, major problem that nobody ever talks about. Working together, the GOP and the Dems have replaced vast swaths of native-born working class laborers with undocumented workers. The GOP excoriates them officially and stokes up the resentment of the displaced, even as they reap the fruits of their labor -- hard work for low pay, no voice at the ballot box, little or no benefits or right to sue if injured on the job, no leverage at all, no ability to unionize. 

IT IS MODERN-DAY SLAVERY.

And the Dems go along with it, I guess for the warm fuzzies of diversity and the promise of maybe one day, years or decades hence, these people or their children or grandchildren will vote Dem out of..gratitude, I guess?

I guess they've never heard that old English doggerel, sung to the melody of O Tannenbaum:

The working class can kiss my arse

I got the foreman's job at last.

You can tell old Joe I'm off the dole

He can stick his Red Flag up his 'ole!.

Which is to say that by the time these people are good to go as citizens and voters, they are ripe for the plucking by the GOP, as there is a never-ending stream of immigrants to exploit and abuse coming in behind them. The Dems offer them nothing but vague promises and platitudes, while the GOP seduces them with hate and resentment and fake patriotism.

It's all a big con.

Sanders used to hold to a policy much like what I outlined above but it appears even he has capitulated to this big lie. 

I thought the Dems were offering them lots of free stuff?

[dcar00 14344]

13 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

democratic.

just because you guys can't find kansas city on a map, doesn't mean shitty grammar is ok.

you mean democrat(lower case D)

[Js1 85526]

3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Looks like Biden got his ass kicked and if not for the reporting snafu Bernie today would be the front runner. The Biden campaign questioning the integrity of the whole process and threatening lawsuits has a very trumpian taste to it. 

Questioning the integrity of getting your ass kicked in a primary? That’s Bernie 2016‘a music!