2020 Dems: Iowa (how it works and what to look for)

[Longhornfan1024 1707]

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

He's got some real strong "NOT ALL WYPIPO, ANTI-RACISTS ARE THE REAL RACISTS" energy.

That and "we had a black president so racism doesn't exist in this country anymore" energy.  

[bad_teammate 13220]

We're up to 75%

 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

Re the sometimes-nebulousness of "HIspanic." My aunt is married to a dude who was born and raised in Zurich and raised Swiss German. 

His mother is Afro-Nicaraguan (I'd need that chart Bolivar posted to place her exactly) and his dad was French. Afro-Nicaraguan mama somehow pawned him off on the parents of her next boyfriend, and that was how this French / Afro-Nicaraguan dude became Swiss German, with a German last name.

So he marries my cracka-ass-cracka aunt in Houston and their daughter looks and is raised and talks cracka-ass-cracka as they come. (Her grandmother was very light-skinned.) I have her 23andMe 'cause we're cousins: she is 4 percent Sub-Saharan African and about 1/3 total composite mestizo (that's the total of her Iberian and Amerindian genes.)

She grew up in the West U area and went to St. Agnes. All her school friends were white. She looks white, talks white, has a white name, a Swiss dad, and an Anglo mom.

But when college-application time came, her mom checked Hispanic on all the forms in order to outkick her coverage. Yes, it is technically correct -- by blood, my cousin is one-quarter Hispanic, but in the real world, she's about as Hispanic as Taylor Swift. (My other aunts grumbled about their sister checking that box -- they said if she was going to do that, she should have been forced to throw a quinceanera at the very least.) 

Yes, at least Ted was raised by a Cuban father, but his upbringing was in virtually the same lillywhite culture my cousin grew up in, so calling him Hispanic is meaningless, a mere technicality.

[Alvin89 108]

2 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Re the sometimes-nebulousness of "HIspanic." My aunt is married to a dude who was born and raised in Zurich and raised Swiss German. 

His mother is Afro-Nicaraguan (I'd need that chart Bolivar posted to place her exactly) and his dad was French. Afro-Nicaraguan mama somehow pawned him off on the parents of her next boyfriend, and that was how this French / Afro-Nicaraguan dude became Swiss German, with a German last name.

So he marries my cracka-ass-cracka aunt in Houston and their daughter looks and is raised and talks cracka-ass-cracka as they come. (Her grandmother was very light-skinned.) I have her 23andMe 'cause we're cousins: she is 4 percent Sub-Saharan African and about 1/3 total composite mestizo (that's the total of her Iberian and Amerindian genes.)

She grew up in the West U area and went to St. Agnes. All her school friends were white. She looks white, talks white, has a white name, a Swiss dad, and an Anglo mom.

But when college-application time came, her mom checked Hispanic on all the forms in order to outkick her coverage. Yes, it is technically correct -- by blood, my cousin is one-quarter Hispanic, but in the real world, she's about as Hispanic as Taylor Swift. (My other aunts grumbled about their sister checking that box -- they said if she was going to do that, she should have been forced to throw a quinceanera at the very least.) 

Yes, at least Ted was raised by a Cuban father, but his upbringing was in virtually the same lillywhite culture my cousin grew up in, so calling him Hispanic is meaningless, a mere technicality.

President Obama was raised by white grandparents in Hawaii before going to Columbia and Harvard. Are we going to say he's only African by technicality?

[wildcat09 29360]

1 minute ago, Alvin89 said:

President Obama was raised by white grandparents in Hawaii before going to Columbia and Harvard. Are we going to say he's only African by technicality?

No, because white people in America absolutely treated him like a black man.  Honestly man, this shit isn't that difficult.

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652]

11 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

We're up to 75%

 

Yay.  Now we can get back on track.   Though I can’t read it due to paywall. 
 

so sanders will win every metric but the SDEs? What’s the projection for national delegates? 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Xian

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

2 minutes ago, Alvin89 said:

President Obama was raised by white grandparents in Hawaii before going to Columbia and Harvard. Are we going to say he's only African by technicality?

“I think if you look African-American in this society, you’re treated as an African-American.” -- Barack Obama, when asked when he "decided to be black."

My cousin does not look Hispanic. Neither does Ted Cruz. Her friends were not overwhelmingly Hispanic and neither were his. He was also raised Protestant, so he didn't even have the stereotypical Catholicism of the majority of Hispanics. 

[Alvin89 108]

3 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

“I think if you look African-American in this society, you’re treated as an African-American.” -- Barack Obama, when asked when he "decided to be black."

My cousin does not look Hispanic. Neither does Ted Cruz. Her friends were not overwhelmingly Hispanic and neither were his. He was also raised Protestant, so he didn't even have the stereotypical Catholicism of the majority of Hispanics. 

The man was elected President of the United States of America and just bought a house for over $11 million dollars in Martha's Vineyard. I would love to be treated that badly.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

3 minutes ago, Alvin89 said:

The man was elected President of the United States of America and just bought a house for over $11 million dollars in Martha's Vineyard. I would love to be treated that badly.

I really am having trouble figuring out what your point is.

[bad_teammate 13220]

10 minutes ago, Xian said:

so sanders will win every metric but the SDEs? What’s the projection for national delegates? 

Still tied at 10 each.

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652]

22 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Re the sometimes-nebulousness of "HIspanic." My aunt is married to a dude who was born and raised in Zurich and raised Swiss German. 

His mother is Afro-Nicaraguan (I'd need that chart Bolivar posted to place her exactly) and his dad was French. Afro-Nicaraguan mama somehow pawned him off on the parents of her next boyfriend, and that was how this French / Afro-Nicaraguan dude became Swiss German, with a German last name.

So he marries my cracka-ass-cracka aunt in Houston and their daughter looks and is raised and talks cracka-ass-cracka as they come. (Her grandmother was very light-skinned.) I have her 23andMe 'cause we're cousins: she is 4 percent Sub-Saharan African and about 1/3 total composite mestizo (that's the total of her Iberian and Amerindian genes.)

She grew up in the West U area and went to St. Agnes. All her school friends were white. She looks white, talks white, has a white name, a Swiss dad, and an Anglo mom.

But when college-application time came, her mom checked Hispanic on all the forms in order to outkick her coverage. Yes, it is technically correct -- by blood, my cousin is one-quarter Hispanic, but in the real world, she's about as Hispanic as Taylor Swift. (My other aunts grumbled about their sister checking that box -- they said if she was going to do that, she should have been forced to throw a quinceanera at the very least.) 

Yes, at least Ted was raised by a Cuban father, but his upbringing was in virtually the same lillywhite culture my cousin grew up in, so calling him Hispanic is meaningless, a mere technicality.

This is getting really off topic. You should really start new thread where you can tell my young daughter that she isn’t Hispanic because she has fair skin, my French last name, and we have a well to do lifestyle. 

let her know it doesn’t matter that her mother was a Cuban Refugee and came to the US as a teenage without knowing word of English.  
 

wonder when I should break the news to my wife.  And if I will survive the discussion. 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Xian

[Lurch 5931]

Who is this new piece of shit?

[Brisketexan 105180]

6 minutes ago, Alvin89 said:

The man was elected President of the United States of America and just bought a house for over $11 million dollars in Martha's Vineyard. I would love to be treated that badly.

Oh, I LOVE this one.  Hey guys, a member of a race ended up doing okay for himself, so they can no longer talk about being treated badly!  It's over!!  RACISM IS OVER!!!

Ummm, can you send that memo to white folks, who haven't shut up since Obama was elected about how white people are the REAL persecuted people in America?  Because, ummm, I'm pretty sure that there's, like, a whole BUNCH of white people with expensive houses in Martha's Vineyard.

Quote

More than half of whites — 55 percent — surveyed say that, generally speaking, they believe there is discrimination against white people in America today.

Thanks.

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Brisketexan

[Lurch 5931]

I really am having trouble figuring out what your point is.

There’s no more racism in America, obviously.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

1 minute ago, Xian said:

This is getting really off topic. You should really start new thread where you can tell my young daughter that she isn’t Hispanic because she has fair skin, my French last name, and we have a well to do lifestyle. 

let her know it doesn’t matter that her mother was a Cuban Refugee and came to the US as a teenage without knowing word of English.  
 

wonder when I should break the news to my wife.  And if I will survive the meeting. 

Cuban refugee =/= Swiss dad who barely knew his Nicaraguan mom. 

[wildcat09 29360]

2 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I really am having trouble figuring out what your point is.

His point is that he's a very smart college freshman who is smarter than anyone else and has learned the secret nobody wants to admit that racism isn't real. 

[Tuco 5076]

14 minutes ago, Xian said:

Yay.  Now we can get back on track.   Though I can’t read it due to paywall. 
 

so sanders will win every metric but the SDEs? What’s the projection for national delegates? 

I would guess something like Pete gets 12 delegates and Bernie gets 11....out of the ~4000 delegates that count on the first ballot.  Iowa is only important for the headline.  This year the headline was "Iowa fucked up".  

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

His point is that he's a very smart college freshman who is smarter than anyone else and has learned the secret nobody wants to admit that racism isn't real. 

Sometimes arguments are so blitheringly idiotic they sail right past me. This is one of those times. 

[Biff Tannen 45695]

6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I would guess something like Pete gets 12 delegates and Bernie gets 11....out of the ~4000 delegates that count on the first ballot.  Iowa is only important for the headline.  This year the headline was "Iowa fucked up".  

Pretty much this.  Pete was victorious in that he wasn't expected to do that well.  And Biden is in trouble.  Everyone else stays the same.  On to New Hampshire!

[Longhornfan1024 1707]

46 minutes ago, Longhornfan1024 said:

That and "we had a black president so racism doesn't exist in this country anymore" energy.  

 

21 minutes ago, Alvin89 said:

The man was elected President of the United States of America and just bought a house for over $11 million dollars in Martha's Vineyard. I would love to be treated that badly.

Is it possible for someone to rep themselves?  Asking for a friend.  

[bad_teammate 13220]

14 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I would guess something like Pete gets 12 delegates and Bernie gets 11....out of the ~4000 delegates that count on the first ballot.  Iowa is only important for the headline.  This year the headline was "Iowa fucked up".  

The chyrons on mass media show Pete ahead. he's getting millions and millions in free advertising right now for winning a race he hasn't been proven to win.

Look at this:

This is just misleading. No one knows what "SDEs" are. It doesn't even have the estimated delegate count which shows Pete & Bernie tied at 10. It's just presented in the way that people are used to seeing vote counts.

Edited February 5, 2020 by bad_teammate

[Hank Scorpio 17729]

Theodore is the sissy chipmunk 

Simon is the nerd chipmunk

Alvin is the racist chipmunk

[Js1 85449]

Iowa: god we suck

Texas/Cali: HOLD UP

 

[bad_teammate 13220]

If the expectation is that we won't know on the night, that's fine.

[Js1 85449]

5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If the expectation is that we won't know on the night, that's fine.

643 delegates at stake between the 2.  And California takes weeks Bc of mail in ballots 🤷🏻‍♀️

[GSU&UT 1798]

I assume we'd get a lot of vote totals reported on that day though right? Delegate counting is I think not just by popular vote in both states, correct me if that isn't the case.

[Js1 85449]

Just now, GSU&UT said:

I assume we'd get a lot of vote totals reported on that day though right? Delegate counting is I think not just by popular vote in both states, correct me if that isn't the case.

California will take forever 

[RDCanecutter 26458]

The French under Nappy III invented the idea of "Latin" America. Wanted to cut ze Rosbifs out of influence.

Nixon invented "Hispanic".

Some Crackx who missed the first three weeks of Spanish class invented "Latinx."

We'd be better off going back to the casta paintings. Wuzzup my Tenteenaire.

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

Just a reminder that the SDEs are what’s always been used to determine the “winner” of the Iowa caucuses.

[GSU&UT 1798]

Just now, Js1 said:

California will take forever 

Yes, in totality, but I assume people who already voted or vote on that day whose votes have been received, at least some of that data will be reported after polls close? Did that not happen in 2016?

[henrygandorf 29194]

17 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The chyrons on mass media show Pete ahead. he's getting millions and millions in free advertising right now

whatever, that's like 3 wine cave events.

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

Yay!

 

[bad_teammate 13220]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Just a reminder that the SDEs are what’s always been used to determine the “winner” of the Iowa caucuses.

That's because that was the only data point they would give us.

At least in the Electoral College we get the # of electors. SDEs are even more obscure than that.

[Longhornfan1024 1707]

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Iowa: god we suck

Texas/Cali: HOLD UP

 

I really don't give a shit if we get same day results.  Just give us the correct results once they're in.  

[henrygandorf 29194]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

That's because that was the only data point they would give us.

At least in the Electoral College we get the # of electors. SDEs are even more obscure than that.

we want more data points we can bitch about on twitter!

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

Yes, they are now using other data points. But the SDEs are what matter the most according to the Iowa Caucus rules. 

[Biff Tannen 45695]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Yay!

 

I swear to christ, if it's either Bernie or Pete and people sit out because their feelers are hurt, I hope they get the fucking corona virus.

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I swear to christ, if it's either Bernie or Pete and people sit out because their feelers are hurt, I hope they get the fucking corona virus.

Pete people won’t sit out. 

[tantric superman 4667]

7 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

The French under Nappy III invented the idea of "Latin" America. Wanted to cut ze Rosbifs out of influence.

Nixon invented "Hispanic".

Some Crackx who missed the first three weeks of Spanish class invented "Latinx."

We'd be better off going back to the casta paintings. Wuzzup my Tenteenaire.

My in laws invented referring to me as "the chalupa" behind my back.

[bad_teammate 13220]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

we want more data points we can bitch about on twitter!

Or so we can get a more accurate idea about the will of the people.

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

But the SDEs are what matter the most according to the Iowa Caucus rules. 

Not saying you're wrong, but what does that mean?

It's a stupid system, we all agree with that. I'm not saying that the media is lying about Pete winning in SDEs. I'm just saying that when people see that WaPo graphic they assume it means a vote total because that's what it means 99.9999% of the time we see election data. Therefore, it is misleading.

What matters practically is which delegates go to the national convention, currently tied at 10.

The popular vote counts and the SDE% are all perceptions management.

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Pete people won’t sit out. 

14% said they won't according to the poll previously cited, against 16% of Bernie's.

It's going to be Bernie's job to win them if Bernie wins the nomination. It's going to be Pete's job to win them if Pete wins the nomination. Whatever.

[henrygandorf 29194]

3 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

14% said they won't according to the poll previously cited, against 16% of Bernie's.

[RDCanecutter 26458]

23 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

My in laws invented referring to me as "the chalupa" behind my back.

Mine went with "Possible Axe Murderer."

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

Latest update:

 

[bad_teammate 13220]

Cool. Great.

Good.

lol

Bernie needs to release his full dataset.

[GSU&UT 1798]

Lol was about to post this. Yeah, definitely nothing shady going on.

God bless Cohn for being on top of it too.

[Tuco 5076]

54 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The chyrons on mass media show Pete ahead. he's getting millions and millions in free advertising right now for winning a race he hasn't been proven to win.

Look at this:

This is just misleading. No one knows what "SDEs" are. It doesn't even have the estimated delegate count which shows Pete & Bernie tied at 10. It's just presented in the way that people are used to seeing vote counts.

Sure, he's getting some play out of it.  But it's not the headline. It wasn't the night of.  It is something people look at after the read about the State of the Union and Impeachment.  The delegate count is trivial.  There is still value in winning Iowa, but clearly Iowa's fuck up is suppressing that value.  And as a Bernie supporter, I would think you'd be cool with Pete getting the play.  He doesn't have the broad support to win the nomination as a whole, and moderate voters may split their vote with Biden.  And nobody has said "Warren" since Monday.  

Edited February 5, 2020 by Tuco

[Pasken 1309]

1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

Lol was about to post this. Yeah, definitely nothing shady going on.

God bless Cohn for being on top of it too.

I think it's more likely incompetence than shadiness. 

[GSU&UT 1798]

2 minutes ago, Pasken said:

I think it's more likely incompetence than shadiness. 

Even still, you basically have to wonder how many errors they've entered  already thus far and possibly do it all again.

[tantric superman 4667]

Did......Pete......TakeVoiceLessons......from.BarackObama?

[bad_teammate 13220]

5 minutes ago, Pasken said:

I think it's more likely incompetence than shadiness. 

I agree.

It doesn't change the reality, though. Those vote differentials are INSANE.