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2020 Dems: Iowa (how it works and what to look for)

bad_teammate

By bad_teammate
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BrickHorn
BrickHorn

Here’s the thing: I’m not jazzed about Pete or Biden or Bloomberg.  But if the various Dem factions are going to demand perfection from their candidate, then we’re going to lose again to a Republican

Brothahorn
Brothahorn
Al_4_ISU
Al_4_ISU

Just got done reading this entire thread.  Your hate warms my heart.  Y'all like bacon?  Then shut the fuck up and tolerate our political absurdity.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

Posted
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1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:

Glad I avoided this thread with all the dipshits trolling that openly support a fascist. Fuck caucuses and Iowa and the DNC (who gave their blessing for this new system) and boomers who are woefully unprepared to deal with tech.

Also Shadow LLC is some CIA banana republic sounding shit, good lord.

The shit actually worked when Boomers were in charge.  

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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52 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

So, forgive me to trying to apply some real analysis to last night, but the one thing that seems confirmed was that turnout was lower than expected.  Genuinely curious what that does for the "BERNIE BRINGS SO MUCH ENTHUSIASM" narrative.  

Its not like caucuses disenfranchise massive swathes of the electorate and discourage any participation.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20635

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The caucus results are clean.  All written on paper. The mechanism to communicate those votes to the IDP failed. 

I think Pete's team believes they won the delegate portion of the caucus. If he ends up finishing behind Bernie, he'll have to take whatever ridicule the media and people want to give him.  

Pete's campaign won't question the official results. The end. 

 

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Js1

Js1 85056

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1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

The caucus results are clean.  All written on paper. The mechanism to communicate those votes to the IDP failed. 

I think Pete's team believes they won the delegate portion of the caucus. If he ends up finishing behind Bernie, he'll have to take whatever ridicule the media and people want to give him.  

Pete's campaign won't question the official results. The end. 

 

Thanks Lis! 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
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Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

The caucus results are clean.  All written on paper. The mechanism to communicate those votes to the IDP failed. 

I think Pete's team believes they won the delegate portion of the caucus. If he ends up finishing behind Bernie, he'll have to take whatever ridicule the media and people want to give him.  

Pete's campaign won't question the official results. The end. 

 

The numbers are supposedly extremely close to Bernie's numbers, which would make him the winner.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20635

Posted
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Just now, Calihorn said:

The numbers are supposedly extremely close to Bernie's numbers, which would make him the winner.

Apparently there are a few ways to "win" the Iowa caucus. First votes, vote total with 2nd choice included, and delegates. Pete's campaign seems to think they have won the delegate portion. 

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13125

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There's also a "win" by just "beating expectations". Iowa isn't about delegates or voters, it's about spin based on perceptions.

Pete was winning Iowa in the RCP poll average there all through November in December. Bernie and Biden fought over it for most of January and Pete collapsed. What it looks like now is that somehow that Pete support became Biden support then became Pete support again at the actual caucus. Weird.

Would it have been smarter for Pete to be more circumspect than literally claiming victory? Maybe, but if that made him sound like a winner to a sizeable portion of NH voters then it was the right call. If it gets him #1 in NH then it was the right call.

War Rat Mode

 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14953

Posted
Posted
The caucus results are clean.  All written on paper. The mechanism to communicate those votes to the IDP failed. 
I think Pete's team believes they won the delegate portion of the caucus. If he ends up finishing behind Bernie, he'll have to take whatever ridicule the media and people want to give him.  
Pete's campaign won't question the official results. The end. 
 


Did you see those pieces of paper? Some had numbers scratched out with new numbers written next to the old numbers. People forget that we are a nation of idiots that can’t make change for a dollar bill. Counting above 10 is just too hard.
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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20635

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Just now, Dbeasy said:

 


Did you see those pieces of paper? Some had numbers scratched out with new numbers written next to the old numbers. People forget that we are a nation of idiots that can’t make change for a dollar bill. Counting above 10 is just too hard.

 

Feel free to assume the worst on actual papered results. But I don't think it's very helpful. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11532

Posted
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1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

 


Did you see those pieces of paper? Some had numbers scratched out with new numbers written next to the old numbers. People forget that we are a nation of idiots that can’t make change for a dollar bill. Counting above 10 is just too hard.

 

Never Forget.

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10395

Posted
Posted

Just saw the $63k app...holy loly shit. Either that company is operating at an enormous loss or this thing was cobbled together by two dudes in a couple weeks plus a few days of testing. You’ve got ~1,700 user profiles for the precincts, third party data security app fees, servers/rackspace fees, etc. With all the hard costs, you don’t have enough for any legitimate dev.

I mean, $63k?!? That would barely cover half the cost of buying Excel for each precinct. If you can’t even afford Excel, you shouldn’t be building an app.

That being said, I’m pretty happy with the end result. Iowa has way too much influence on the process. They’ve managed to negate that, and the party is better off for it.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

That's actually a great idea.

 

Which is why it will never happen.


I would always have Florida and Ohio in the first two weeks.  Show me you can build an organization and momentum in the states that would block Republicans from the White House.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13125

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The conspiracy stuff assumes too much competence. I think it's astonishing they would name it "Shadow" like themselves as people or anything they could ever do or produce is cool.

Company should be called Grifting Dorks, Inc

Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

That's actually a great idea.

Which is why it will never happen.

It certainly wouldn't have been allowed for 2020 because that would've been a recipe for a Bernie coronation.

He beat Hillary in Michigan, Wisconsin, and NH.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

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1 minute ago, Tuco said:

I would always have Florida and Ohio in the first two weeks.  Show me you can build an organization and momentum in the states that would block Republicans from the White House. 

Exactly. And it kills the whole BUT MUH ELECTABILITY argument. 

If you can win in the swing states, you can win nationally. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20635

Posted
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1 minute ago, SquishMitten said:

What? I’d say if Pete or Klobuchar came in second, maybe even third (especially for Klob) that’d be huge for them. 

Well, I agree that Pete finishing a clear second at worst to Bernie is a very good result. But during his speech he said they were "victorious", and he's been hounded by the media about it ever since. 

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13125

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I can't see a ton of the posts that showed up over the past 5-or-so pages, but I really hope the CHUDs have enjoyed themselves as the Democrats freak out about which of their profoundly-superior-to-Trump human beings they are selecting from.

It's rough being stupid and hated and devoid of any human value or values, so it's heartwarming if they can feel a little sunlight.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13125

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Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Well, I agree that Pete finishing a clear second at worst to Bernie is a very good result.

Given his high fundraising, high in-state polling, in-state-presence advantage, and demographic dream scenario... yeah it's good.

3rd or lower would've been death. 1st, though... that was necessary. You can't prove you're a winner by losing a state that is set up for you to win. NH looks like a much harder hill to climb.

Maybe if he wins NH?

I don't see the path.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

Posted
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Just now, bad_teammate said:

I can't see a ton of the posts that showed up over the past 5-or-so pages, but I really hope the CHUDs have enjoyed themselves as the Democrats freak out about which of their profoundly-superior-to-Trump human beings they are selecting from.

It's rough being stupid and hated and devoid of any human value or values, so it's heartwarming if they can feel a little sunlight.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20635

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Just now, bad_teammate said:

Given his high fundraising, high in-state polling, in-state-presence advantage, and demographic dream scenario... yeah it's good.

3rd or lower would've been death. 1st, though... that was necessary. You can't prove you're a winner by losing a state that is set up for you to win. NH looks like a much harder hill to climb.

Maybe if he wins NH?

I don't see the path.

I really don't see a path either unless he wins NH and their is quick change of thought on his viability. 

 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I really don't see a path either unless he wins NH and their is quick change of thought on his viability. 

 

The problem becomes is that even if that is the case, he has no minority support. So he'll get slaughtered across the south worse than Bernie did

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13125

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2 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

The problem becomes is that even if that is the case, he has no minority support. So he'll get slaughtered across the south worse than Bernie did

Well that's the gambit in putting a bunch of black people behind you and saying you were "victorious".

He's shooting his shot without attacking anyone. I can't fault the guy for it.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20635

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Just now, Calihorn said:

The problem becomes is that even if that is the case, he has no minority support. So he'll get slaughtered across the south worse than Bernie did

Of course he has to get minority support. That's exactly what I mean when saying people will need to have a change of heart fairly quickly. 

The only chance he has is if Biden tumbles. Which he did in Iowa, but Joe got a huge break with this caucus fuckup. 

 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20635

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Just now, bad_teammate said:

Well that's the gambit in putting a bunch of black people behind you and saying you were "victorious".

He's shooting his shot without attacking anyone. I can't fault the guy for it.

I was texting with HG about this last night. 

Iowa was make or break for Pete. So might as well exude confidence in the results and keep on moving forward. If for some reason his "victory" speech backfires, so fucking what? This is still a huge underdog campaign. 

 

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