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2020 Dems: New Hampshire (thank god, a normal primary)

bad_teammate

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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The first primary is tomorrow, 2/11, in beautiful New Hampshire.

It is a semi-closed primary, meaning that only Democrats and unaffiliated voters can participate.

Polls close by 7pm EST, so we should know who won fairly early.

While there won't be 1/100th the level of fuckery we witnessed in Iowa, here's how the 24 pledged delegates are allocated...

8 of them are based on statewide results. (15% threshold)
16 of them are based on results in New Hampshire's 2 congressional districts (8 for CD1 and 8 for CD2). (15% threshold)

538 doesn't denote any significant variations between CD1 and CD2, and I don't know anything, so let's just assume all of that shakes out the same. I don't think there's a major urban/rural split or demographic split, but you could fit all my NH knowledge on the head of a pin.

538 polling average:

Sanders - 26%
Buttigieg - 20.7%
Warren - 12.7%
Biden - 12.5%
Klobuchar - 9.6%

That's DICEY shit for Liz, Joe, and Amy. All 3 would be shut out of statewide delegates and it would take some kind of really lopsided result for them to get CD delegates. Warren and Biden are already talking like they know they're going to lose the state.

An interesting dynamic here is that Pete was the primary beneficiary of realignment in Iowa. He got a lot of Biden and Amy and Warren voters who were not viable after Round 1 tallies in Iowa precincts.

Bernie & Pete:

Anything other than 1st is a disappointment. 

Slightly different reasons for each, but they both need to win this. Bernie can survive a close 2nd, but Pete doesn't really have a visible path after this so if he can go out and say "I beat Bernie twice!" then there's some hope that it carries momentum forward. Polling up until Iowa showed that a ton of Pete's support was of the "Blue no matter who!" type who might be happy to just jump to whoever seems hotter.

Biden's illusory campaign was a big hunk of fresh kill for Pete to feast off of in Iowa, but with Warren and Joe down to 13% I don't see what meat is left for him to eat off of them.

Bernie has been ahead consistently since mid-January, so I think 2nd would take some wind out of his sails. But Bernie's support is so fucking sticky I don't know who is jumping ship yet.

Warren:

She needs 2nd at least to show real strength. Can probably survive 3rd.

4th

giphy.gif

5th

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Biden:

Who fucking knows with this guy.

He's going to push this to South Carolina regardless, because he's convinced he's going to absorb the mojo of the Southern black voter and moonwalk that into Super Tuesday. Polling shows this is possible, but polling also showed he would do well in Iowa and his campaign manager said they expected to be viable in 90-95% of precincts, so common sense says that Biden gets no better than 3rd here.

4th likely

5th very possible

But he could finish 5th and shrug it off.

Just drop out and get behind the Bern Dawg, Joe, you know you want to. You know you feel it in your bones. BE A BRO, JOE

Amy:

lol who cares

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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emotional hedge betting. 
I accounted for this in my spreadsheets.

Pete has the heat and still has the demo advantage. These primaries are about momentum and heat. Some of it is negative, but publicity is publicity.

Also, this is a primary and I think the olds will show up better here than they did on caucus night.

Even if he wins NH, which I think is most likely, I'll still have him 2nd at best in Nevada and 4th in SC.
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18658

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1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

I accounted for this in my spreadsheets.

Pete has the heat and still has the demo advantage. These primaries are about momentum and heat. Some of it is negative, but publicity is publicity.

Also, this is a primary and I think the olds will show up better here than they did on caucus night.

Even if he wins NH, which I think is most likely, I'll still have him 2nd at best in Nevada and 4th in SC.

Pete Buttigieg is not the threat to Bernie Sanders.

Mike Bloomberg is.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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6 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Bernie & Pete:

Anything other than 1st is a disappointment. 

Slightly different reasons for each, but they both need to win this. Bernie can survive a close 2nd, but Pete doesn't really have a visible path after this so if he can go out and say "I beat Bernie twice!" then there's some hope that it carries momentum forward. Polling up until Iowa showed that a ton of Pete's support was of the "Blue no matter who!" type who might be happy to just jump to whoever seems hotter.

Biden's illusory campaign was a big hunk of fresh kill for Pete to feast off of in Iowa, but with Warren and Joe down to 13% I don't see what meat is left for him to eat off of them.

Bernie has been ahead consistently since mid-January, so I think 2nd would take some wind out of his sails. But Bernie's support is so fucking sticky I don't know who is jumping ship yet.

 

 

I think Pete would be fine with a #2 finish, particularly if it was Bernie, Pete, Liz, Biden, and Klob.  If you look at it as a semifinal between moderates (Pete, Biden, Klob) and liberals (Bernie, Liz), he's just trying to win his bracket.  Beat Biden and Klobacher  - by decent margins - and he cannibalizes their voters.  (Maybe literally, if the anti-Pete sentiment in social media is to believed.)  Getting first brings some mojo, but it's not the only thing worth fighting for.  

I don't think people would jump from Pete to Bernie for him getting second.  And I see no reason they would jump to a lower finishing candidate.  Same goes with whether Bernie folks would jump to Pete because of a close second place.  Hell, how Biden and Liz finishes may be the bigger deal.  Pete wants Biden to finish 4th, and Bernie wants Liz to finish 4th. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It's like throwing a few hundred at the OU moneyline in October. 

Look man, I don't like the rat as much as the next guy, but there are lines I'm not going to cross.

7 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I don't think people would jump from Pete to Bernie for him getting second. 

giphy.gif

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Js1

Js1 85110

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Just now, gmr548 said:

Bernie wins. Pete second. Biden third but well behind those two, and only barely past Klobuchar. Warren a disappointing fifth after a decent showing in IA.

Hugo: PRESIDENTIAL! She’s gonna win! 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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Just an opinion, but I don't think Liz should stop if she doesn't place high in NH. Still have the debates in Nevada and SC to come. If she continues to fall after that, then reconsider. I'm not certain that Biden will have SC locked up as much as it has been forecast. I have no authority for these statements, so I'm just winging it.

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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39 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Just an opinion, but I don't think Liz should stop if she doesn't place high in NH. Still have the debates in Nevada and SC to come. If she continues to fall after that, then reconsider. I'm not certain that Biden will have SC locked up as much as it has been forecast. I have no authority for these statements, so I'm just winging it.

I don't think she will, nor should she. She's been investing in NV and SC and I have read that her campaign had already begun to shift its focus to those states. She has the resources and the ground game to get to Super Tuesday and reevaluate. She'll at least do that. Also, I think there is an element to her campaign that is about more than her getting elected President. Not that I don't think she's in it to win it, but I think she sees value in getting the message out there and rallying support for fundamental change in this country. I believe her and Sanders are the only two candidates genuinely serious about that.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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5 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Just an opinion, but I don't think Liz should stop if she doesn't place high in NH. Still have the debates in Nevada and SC to come. If she continues to fall after that, then reconsider. I'm not certain that Biden will have SC locked up as much as it has been forecast. I have no authority for these statements, so I'm just winging it.

 

4 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I don't think she will, nor should she. She's been investing in NV and SC and I have read that her campaign had already begun to shift its focus to those states. She has the resources and the ground game to get to Super Tuesday and reevaluate. She'll at least do that. Also, I think there is an element to her campaign that is about more than her getting elected President. Not that I don't think she's in it to win it, but I think she sees value in getting the message out there and rallying support for fundamental change in this country. I believe her and Sanders are the only two candidates genuinely serious about that.

I agree. Warren and her supporters should stay in. Warren's progressive vision for the country needs to be heard again. I believe other candidates in the middle/right lane - Buttigieg especially - assume Warren progressive supporters will just go wherever they are told to go.

I am not sure I see Warren's supporters going anywhere . . . and as the party drifts toward a Republican cesspool of "think leaders" with Buttigieg or Bloomberg in tow - I think Elizabeth's progressive supporters will say "hell no."

Splitting the progressives hurt Warren. And it hurts the progressive effort to replace Trump.

Only a Progressive beats Trump. The people endangered and hurt by Trump are fired up to have him gone. The Establishment Big Wigs lose some clout in getting reservations at the newest place in DC with Trump as President. People most hurt or endangered by Trump are counting on Progressives to stabilize the damage after the last 3 years of this Administration. They are hurting. They are looking to the Democratic Party for help and will vote. 

Warren needs to stay in as long as she can, go back to her progressive stances - and mean it - and then team up with Sanders to tell the Republicans trying to take over the Party they have refuge in the Big Tent, but David Frum, Joe Scarborough, Jennifer Rubin, and the rest of the Republican nitwits aren't calling the shots.

Elizabeth needs to get bold and shake off the baggage. She is a progressive and needs to be allowed to make the case for progressivism without fear of being called a commie by Republicans at CNN and MSNBC.

Warren has been corralled into the middle/right lane by handlers. Correct the mistake and you have the perfect loop back to the beginning.

Why progressives and liberal Democrats - including Bernie Sanders - love Sen. Warren was her progressive soul - that We the People can make it better. She has lost a little of the optimism. This race needs it right now. 

You may a hear a lot of orations about how Elizabeth should drop out. Ignore the braying. There is a reason the donkey was the party symbol. We need Warren and her supporters' voices actively in this race. She needs her supporters' help - with small donations. Every time you donate you send a message that her light is still on. 

We are early in this race. Elizabeth needs to stay - no matter what happens tomorrow. She needs to be there for Super Tuesday and beyond. Warren has a big say in how this nomination is decided. And she is not out of it. 

Spoiler
 
 
 
 
Spoiler

And if a Sanders supporter was ever condescending to you or your beliefs, I am sorry. If it was me, I am ashamed. I loved Warren in 2008. She was brave - and she spoke truth to the powerful. She didn't win that fight, but she was all alone. She was right back then. And was brave enough to take on anyone.

 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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4 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

 

I agree. Warren and her supporters should stay in. Warren's progressive vision for the country needs to be heard again. I believe other candidates in the middle/right lane - Buttigieg especially - assume Warren progressive supporters will just go wherever they are told to go.

I am not sure I see Warren's supporters going anywhere . . . and as the party drifts toward a Republican cesspool of "think leaders" with Buttigieg or Bloomberg in tow - I think Elizabeth's progressive supporters will say "hell no."

We are early in this race. Elizabeth needs to stay - no matter what happens tomorrow. She needs to be there for Super Tuesday and beyond. Warren has a big say in how this nomination is decided. And she is not out of it. 

 

I do think that is what the more centrist candidates believe, but of those candidates the only one I even halfway trust is Klobuchar, and even then, that is shaky---I would only vote for her if she was the nominee. I won't stay home, I'm not going to do that.

I certainly understand the support for Sanders, I've read his platforms, but until the dust has settled, I'm still for Liz and want her to persist. Two progressive candidates should be energizing and getting Americans excited about policy change. We need that change, we need reform in the way our institutions operate and we need to end the corruption that is crippling our populace from achieving its best outcomes for all. It's a competition, but what bt had said about the Sanders campaign and its values--I agree, they should stay true to those, but both the Sanders and Warren campaigns really driving, pushing, and encouraging folks to get excited and vote for change is paramount IMO. Once someone votes, the next time to vote may come a little easier, most especially if the winning campaign reaches out a hand and says, 'hey join us, there is room for all of us., let's go create opportunity.'  I think their campaigns do that.

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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You drop out if you have future aspirations and it's going to get embarrassing. That's why Kamala and Beto dropped out early, they were behind in their home states and not making up ground in Iowa or NH.

Super Tuesday has Mass., and 538 has her at a 27% chance of winning right now (Bernie 47%). If she does 3rd or better in NH and is strong in Nevada/SC, then that goes up and she might stick through.

It's not like she is polling strongly among minorities.

This field has to winnow.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20705

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22 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Bernie & Pete:

Anything other than 1st is a disappointment. 

Slightly different reasons for each, but they both need to win this.

I don't really agree with this. Pete definitely needs to finish in the Top 2. The closer to Bernie, the better. But the most important part is to have some distance from Biden, Warren, and Klobuchar. 

If final numbers are something like Bernie 28, Pete 24, Warren 14, Klobuchar 13, Biden 11...that's a good result for him. 

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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The distance between Pete the other moderates is a good point is something I hadn't thought of. Biden and Klobuchar have been hammering Pete because they feel like they might get those centrist waffling voters back, so if he hits them with a hard knockout maybe they fall in line? 

Interesting.

I think there's a possibility that the bitterness in that centrist lane gets so intense that it overshadows any negativity they feel towards Bernie.

WE SHALL SEE!

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20705

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17 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The distance between Pete the other moderates is a good point is something I hadn't thought of. Biden and Klobuchar have been hammering Pete because they feel like they might get those centrist waffling voters back, so if he hits them with a hard knockout maybe they fall in line? 

Interesting.

I think there's a possibility that the bitterness in that centrist lane gets so intense that it overshadows any negativity they feel towards Bernie.

WE SHALL SEE!

The concern for Pete in NH is how much of a surge Klobuchar has at the polls today.  She definitely has momentum there. 

If Amy stays close to Pete in NH, that really hurts him. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

You drop out if you have future aspirations and it's going to get embarrassing. That's why Kamala and Beto dropped out early, they were behind in their home states and not making up ground in Iowa or NH.

Super Tuesday has Mass., and 538 has her at a 27% chance of winning right now (Bernie 47%). If she does 3rd or better in NH and is strong in Nevada/SC, then that goes up and she might stick through.

It's not like she is polling strongly among minorities.

This field has to winnow.

I think there is a big difference between dropping out prior to Iowa and after Iowa.  I couldn't imagine being the volunteer for a candidate who dropped out a couple of weeks prior to seeing how she did in the state I was canvassing.  The only reasons I could see Warren dropping out: she just doesn't have the cash to pay staffers, or to do Bernie a favor, which might be returned in an appointment. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Question: Do you need 15% of votes in NH to get delegates? 

 

Statewide: 8 delegates available based on how you do statewide
CD1: 8 delegates available based on how you do in CD1
CD2: 8 delegates available based on how you do in CD2

So a candidate could get 18% in CD1, 13% in CD2, and 15% statewide and end up with a portion of the state and a portion of CD1, but none from the CD2 stack

Simpler than Iowa, but still not as simple as winner-take-all or statewide allocation only

 

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sachick

sachick 1189

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12 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I don't think she will, nor should she. She's been investing in NV and SC and I have read that her campaign had already begun to shift its focus to those states. She has the resources and the ground game to get to Super Tuesday and reevaluate. She'll at least do that. Also, I think there is an element to her campaign that is about more than her getting elected President. Not that I don't think she's in it to win it, but I think she sees value in getting the message out there and rallying support for fundamental change in this country. I believe her and Sanders are the only two candidates genuinely serious about that.

This is a big reason why I support her. I believe her. I believe she wants to make the country better. I'm disappointed we'll probably get Bernie or Pete but would prefer Bernie for the same reason. He believes in his message and has spent his whole fighting for what he believes is the best for people. Pete I'm iffy on. He gives me a smarmy vibe, not sure where his priorities are.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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2 minutes ago, sachick said:

This is a big reason why I support her. I believe her. I believe she wants to make the country better. I'm disappointed we'll probably get Bernie or Pete but would prefer Bernie for the same reason. He believes in his message and has spent his whole fighting for what he believes is the best for people. Pete I'm iffy on. He gives me a smarmy vibe, not sure where his priorities are.

I spend myself trying to divorce presentation from content in this race.  Frankly, Sanders and Buttigeig both have a presentation issue for me.  I've seen Bernie speak for maybe 45 minutes before, and he was great.  He seems to relax into the message and it's compelling.  But, in the 45 second format of the debates, he comes across as scattered and angry. I have to remind myself that I actually like him.  

With Pete, he certainly comes across as smarmy.  I find myself relating to many of the things he is saying, and then recoiling when he gives one of his "...this is personal for me..." lines. His cadence, his facial expressions - everything seems forced. And certainly he has this big target on his back, over things that older Dems have been doing for decades, and no one gives a shit.  Raising money from billionaires?  Seriously, when did that become a disqualifier? 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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13 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Raising money from billionaires?  Seriously, when did that become a disqualifier? 

2016.

Hillary Clinton's loss to Donald Trump laid a lot of things bare that had remained hidden behind a facade of decorum and bipartisan graft.

Obviously it's not a universal "disqualifier", because if enough people are OK with it enough to vote for a bought politician then obviously that person wasn't disqualified.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5784

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14 minutes ago, Tuco said:

With Pete, he certainly comes across as smarmy.  I find myself relating to many of the things he is saying, and then recoiling when he gives one of his "...this is personal for me..." lines. His cadence, his facial expressions - everything seems forced. And certainly he has this big target on his back, over things that older Dems have been doing for decades, and no one gives a shit.  Raising money from billionaires?  Seriously, when did that become a disqualifier? 

Caught a clip this morning where Pete says "I was driving to work last week in my Chevy...."

Nothing wrong with that, but it's so cheesy that it brought the Lulz. I uhhhh, would also like to express my fondness of that particular beer. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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26 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Not sure if it was a smart move by Uncle Joe to announce he's leaving for South Carolina today when many people in NH haven't voted yet today. 

I predict a 5th place finish for him in NH. 

Apparently his NH office was a bit annoyed with him conceding NH in the opening minutes of the last debate.  So, yeah, he may do poorly. 

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