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2020 Dems: New Hampshire (thank god, a normal primary)

bad_teammate

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19243

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Theoretically, I agree from a pure gamesmanship standpoint, but I think ol' Joe just didn't have the heart for it. I've read reports that he wasn't really interested in running this time either, but he felt compelled to due to pressure from the Party as the "electable" candidate.
I don't think "The Party" could find its ass with a map.

And I agree. A game of what could have been.

I respect Bernie. And I'd hold my nose and vote for him. I don't align with him economically. But I'm in on getting the Orange One gone.

Bloomberg, well, there are a lot of New Yorkers that dont have a lot of good things to say about the direction he (and our current guy) have taken the city. But same. Would make the choice to go.with him.

Yang was my guy, followed by Warren. Sigh.
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Pancho

Pancho 45478

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7 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
12 minutes ago, Pancho said:
 
Well, and the death of this son was around that time.  I mean, that might have played a tiny part in him not running. 

I know it did. But hindsight is 2020 (and I fucking hate the joke).

 

Well you might have thought that situation would have made him more compelling, but that doesn't mean he was in the right frame of mind to run.  Only Joe knew that. 

And I'm on your side--I wanted him to run too. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16640

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4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

As someone who's a Warren supporter, I'd been planning (and still do) to vote for her in the Texas primary, if she makes it that far, because I think she'd be the best choice for president. But it's increasingly clear she's not the best candidate, and I don't have a solid second choice if she doesn't.

That'd make it much more difficult to vote my conscience, because then it'd force me start thinking about "electability" bullshit and who'd match up better head-to-head against the neo-fascist currently wiping his ass with the Constitution.

I haz disappoint. :(

I'm a Warren supporter because she's serious about structural progressive change - to me, the only other candidate for which that's true is Sanders and that makes him the easy second choice.

As for Warren's campaign, no doubt the trendline is bad. Her showing in IA was fine honestly, but I do agree with the post above that the NH result, assuming it holds, is a resounding disappointment for her. The biggest single thing is that exit pools have white college educated women moving to Klobuchar. That's brutal for Warren because that's her bread and butter more than any other single demographic. At least there's Biden's total collapse for the media to feast on as well (I'm just shocked, SHOCKED!).

That said, her campaign is right to point out that IA and NH are overwhelmingly old and white, and aware a minute amount of delegates. I am not sure Pete or Amy's appeal holds up when you add some diversity, both in terms of race and age to the electorate. Warren's campaign has had much more resources to make sustained investment in NV, SC, and Super Tuesday states than anyone not named Sanders and maybe Biden. I'd want to see that play out too. She's polling ahead of Pete and Klobuchar in SC and IA; granted, those are mostly pre-IA/NH but the electorate is nowhere near as friendly to Pete or Klobuchar there (side note - wow Steyer's numbers in SC are crazy). She could close the gap on second place in those states.

If I had to bet I'd say the trend doesn't reverse and she's done after ST. Maybe she plays out the rest of the big March primaries. But it's a little early to count her totally out. No one has a really clear path to victory right now (except Donald Trump, I suppose). If it gets really muddled she may stay in it all the way to the convention to have a say in what goes down there.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

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3 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Ah, there it is. Clearly, there's no difference between running against just Hillary, and running against 4 other serious candidates.

Can’t fault him. It’s the drivel MSNBC/CNN is selling. And to be fair, most of of America did not understand how much progressives despised Clinton in 2016. 
 

LL - Bernie has risen the polls and continues to do so. No one has the ground game of Sanders, the grassroots support, and the funds of Sanders. Buttigieg and Klobs need to scale up to compete. I hope they do. They stand against Bloomberg at this point in this race, not Sanders. That is the metric for their success for through Super Tuesday. 

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19243

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Well you might have thought that situation would have made him more compelling, but that doesn't mean he was in the right frame of mind to run.  Only Joe knew that. 
And I'm on your side--I wanted him to run too. 
It actually makes me respect him. He understands that certain things are more important than politics, ego, and ambition.
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bolverk

bolverk 29822

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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I don't think "The Party" could find its ass with a map.

And I agree. A game of what could have been.

I respect Bernie. And I'd hold my nose and vote for him. I don't align with him economically. But I'm in on getting the Orange One gone.

Bloomberg, well, there are a lot of New Yorkers that dont have a lot of good things to say about the direction he (and our current guy) have taken the city. But same. Would make the choice to go.with him.

Yang was my guy, followed by Warren. Sigh.

Yep. Disappointed but time to move on.

This certainly won't be the first time my preferred candidate hasn't made it out of the primary and it certainly won't be the last. That said, I'll happily rally round whomever receives the nomination unlike a couple of times in the past.

It's too important this time - even in Texas where I typically have felt free to vote for non-major party candidates.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45768

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28 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

To be fair, none of these clowns match up well against said neo facist. Just an awful group of candidates top to bottom

 

26 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Correct, which helps explain the low turnout in Iowa and NH so far.

If y'all are correct, we deserve the death of the republic.  

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14654

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15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Sanders may win this (though his margin keeps getting ever-so-slightly smaller), but this is quietly catastrophic for him.

He won New Hampshire with better than 60% in 2016.  He's going to get less than 30% this time.  He didn't bring in new voters; there's no evidence of a surge of young voters.

And it's not like that other 30% stayed with a progressive and went to Warren.  They went to Buttigieg and . . . fuck--I don't even know.

The biggest problem with Sanders is that he's not expanding his base.  He's got his supporters.  But he's not building beyond that.  As Biden and Warren sluff off support, those people are going to Buttigieg and Klobuchar.  Very few are going to Sanders.

Even worse, there are people in NH that voted for him in 2016 that didn't vote for him now.  The Bern supporters tell us he's growing the voter pool but he's not.  He's also not cracking 30% in any poll, national or statewide.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19243

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Even worse, there are people in NH that voted for him in 2016 that didn't vote for him now.  The Bern supporters tell us he's growing the voter pool but he's not.  He's also not cracking 30% in any poll, national or statewide.
There are people that voted in 2016, that couldn't be bothered in 2020.
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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Even worse, there are people in NH that voted for him in 2016 that didn't vote for him now.  The Bern supporters tell us he's growing the voter pool but he's not.  He's also not cracking 30% in any poll, national or statewide.

You don't understand how this works huh?

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Sanders may win this (though his margin keeps getting ever-so-slightly smaller), but this is quietly catastrophic for him.

He won New Hampshire with better than 60% in 2016.  He's going to get less than 30% this time.  He didn't bring in new voters; there's no evidence of a surge of young voters.

And it's not like that other 30% stayed with a progressive and went to Warren.  They went to Buttigieg and . . . fuck--I don't even know.

The biggest problem with Sanders is that he's not expanding his base.  He's got his supporters.  But he's not building beyond that.  As Biden and Warren sluff off support, those people are going to Buttigieg and Klobuchar.  Very few are going to Sanders.

It certainly looks like some NH folks who voted for Sanders in 2016 are voting for other candidates tonight.  
 

mass-energy_equivalence.svg
 

E : electability

m : mass

c : cult constant

Needs more mass, but got the cult squared covered.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by triplehorn
maff
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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14654

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4 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Can’t fault him. It’s the drivel MSNBC/CNN is selling. And to be fair, most of of America did not understand how much progressives despised Clinton in 2016. 
 

LL - Bernie has risen the polls and continues to do so. No one has the ground game of Sanders, the grassroots support, and the funds of Sanders. Buttigieg and Klobs need to scale up to compete. I hope they do. They stand against Bloomberg at this point in this race, not Sanders. That is the metric for their success for through Super Tuesday. 

But it's not enough.  Everyone on here is OK with Bern, although you and BT are making it difficult.  For any of us to consider voting for Bern, he has to show that he's viable to the general electorate and he's not.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

How does it work then?  We've been hearing that Bern's appeal is he brings in new voters.  Where are they?

First, save the disingenuous shit for somebody that cares secondly, there's a massive difference between competing against one person and 9 people. especially if that one person happens to be a flawed and disliked candidate.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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Just now, Calihorn said:

First, save the disingenuous shit for somebody that cares secondly, there's a massive difference between competing against one person and 9 people. especially if that one person happens to be a flawed and disliked candidate.

The dude that keeps winning, how is he going to win?!!!

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13303

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Turnout isn't beating 2008, which is a problem for 1 candidate but is just fine for the other 8.

That guy who has gotten the most votes for both states? Very much a loser tactic! How do you gain momentum if you're already winning? Think about it.

If you combine everyone else's votes against the winner... he's not a winner anymore. How can he win if that is true?

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gmr548

gmr548 16640

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1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

But it's not enough.  Everyone on here is OK with Bern, although you and BT are making it difficult.  For any of us to consider voting for Bern, he has to show that he's viable to the general electorate and he's not.

JFC I am not even a Sanders voter but I am getting really tired of this nonsense. This is a selection of the first page of "Bernie Sanders vs Trump polls on Google" and some other polls pulled from the RCP link

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Pennsylvania.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Wisconsin.html

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/11/sanders-crushes-trump-18-points-among-independent-voters-new-national-general

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-doubles-his-lead-over-donald-trump-hypothetical-general-election-poll-1482075

All available data shows Sanders outperforms moderate Ds in WI-MI-PA, Democrats' path of least resistance. This playedd out last year in those states, where Sanders beat Clinton in two of the three primaries, and the amount of Independents that voted Sanders and then flipped to Trump exceeded Trump's margin of victory. In fact, while we'll obviously never know for sure, the data says that if Sanders was the D nominee in 2016, we'd all be watching the NH Republican primary right now because he'd be President.

There are plenty of legit reasons to prefer someone else over Sanders. I do myself. The "viable to the general elctorate" angle is simply not rooted in reality.

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6th Street

6th Street 6592

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49 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

This is not a good take. Any of these candidates can beat someone as unpopular as Donald Trump.

Donnie is popular enough in the 4 or 5 states that matter and will decide the election. His competition: a socialist, a gay small town mayor, a chubby square, a preachy grandma, and an old coot. 

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19243

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JFC I am not even a Sanders voter but I am getting really tired of this nonsense. This is a selection of the first page of "Bernie Sanders vs Trump polls on Google" and some other polls pulled from the RCP link

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Pennsylvania.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Wisconsin.html

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/11/sanders-crushes-trump-18-points-among-independent-voters-new-national-general

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-doubles-his-lead-over-donald-trump-hypothetical-general-election-poll-1482075

All available data shows Sanders outperforms moderate Ds in WI-MI-PA, Democrats' path of least resistance. This playedd out last year in those states, where Sanders beat Clinton in two of the three primaries, and the amount of Independents that voted Sanders and then flipped to Trump exceeded Trump's margin of victory. In fact, while we'll obviously never know for sure, the data says that if Sanders was the D nominee in 2016, we'd all be watching the NH Republican primary right now because he'd be President.

There are plenty of legit reasons to prefer someone else over Sanders. I do myself. The "viable to the general elctorate" angle is simply not rooted in reality.

Not in PA. Biden outperforming based on all the polls in your link in PA.

 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Not in PA. Biden outperforming based on all the polls in your link in PA.

 

Biden is cratering, he's not going to recover from this. He is literally skipping the next state up to try and rally his remaining base in South Carolina.

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burntorangebongos

burntorangebongos 10787

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

No--but this may be the beginning of her getting mentally prepared to do so.

Honestly, this is a neighboring state.  It's very white and very college-educated.  This should be in her wheelhouse.

I really don't know where she goes from here.  She's not well positioned for Nevada or South Carolina.  And so then go into Super Tuesday with minimal money and no momentum?  What's the point of that?

She goes on and fights the good fight. She is truly a gifted individual with solid values and we need that right now. Sometimes, you get in the right place at the right time and fortune smile upon you....like it did on Kloby tonight. I think Liz has a valuable voice that needs to stay in.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13303

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1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

Biden is cratering, he's not going to recover from this. He is literally skipping the next state up to try and rally his remaining base in South Carolina.

This is Joe Biden's 3rd shot at president and he has never finished better than 4th in a contest.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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5 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Donnie is popular enough in the 4 or 5 states that matter and will decide the election. His competition: a socialist, a gay small town mayor, a chubby square, a preachy grandma, and an old coot. 

We got it. You think trump is winning no matter what. See you in November. 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14654

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13 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

JFC I am not even a Sanders voter but I am getting really tired of this nonsense. This is a selection of the first page of "Bernie Sanders vs Trump polls on Google" and some other polls pulled from the RCP link

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Pennsylvania.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Wisconsin.html

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/11/sanders-crushes-trump-18-points-among-independent-voters-new-national-general

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-doubles-his-lead-over-donald-trump-hypothetical-general-election-poll-1482075

All available data shows Sanders outperforms moderate Ds in WI-MI-PA, Democrats' path of least resistance. This playedd out last year in those states, where Sanders beat Clinton in two of the three primaries, and the amount of Independents that voted Sanders and then flipped to Trump exceeded Trump's margin of victory. In fact, while we'll obviously never know for sure, the data says that if Sanders was the D nominee in 2016, we'd all be watching the NH Republican primary right now because he'd be President.

There are plenty of legit reasons to prefer someone else over Sanders. I do myself. The "viable to the general elctorate" angle is simply not rooted in reality.

That’s before six months of Trump and the Republicans literally screaming about socialism.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
3 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:
Biden is cratering, he's not going to recover from this. He is literally skipping the next state up to try and rally his remaining base in South Carolina.

I completely agree. But I do have concerns if Bernie can motivate people to get off their asses.

The only thing I can say is that Amy polls worse with black voters and hispanic voters than Bernie. Bernie is only behind Biden in the last national poll published (and yes I'm aware of Bloomberg trying to money-whip states where the other candidates haven't spent on advertising yet).

 

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

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