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2020 Dems: New Hampshire (thank god, a normal primary)

bad_teammate

By bad_teammate
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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

JFC I am not even a Sanders voter but I am getting really tired of this nonsense. This is a selection of the first page of "Bernie Sanders vs Trump polls on Google" and some other polls pulled from the RCP link

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Pennsylvania.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Wisconsin.html

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/11/sanders-crushes-trump-18-points-among-independent-voters-new-national-general

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-doubles-his-lead-over-donald-trump-hypothetical-general-election-poll-1482075

All available data shows Sanders outperforms moderate Ds in WI-MI-PA, Democrats' path of least resistance. This playedd out last year in those states, where Sanders beat Clinton in two of the three primaries, and the amount of Independents that voted Sanders and then flipped to Trump exceeded Trump's margin of victory. In fact, while we'll obviously never know for sure, the data says that if Sanders was the D nominee in 2016, we'd all be watching the NH Republican primary right now because he'd be President.

There are plenty of legit reasons to prefer someone else over Sanders. I do myself. The "viable to the general elctorate" angle is simply not rooted in reality.

Bernie would have beat trump in 2016, even without the Russian interference. Its very hard for the Democratic Party to admit this but its true. He beats trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. 

I don’t agree with all his positions either, but if Biden falters, which it appears he is doing, then the Bern is the best chance to beat trump as well and he will. The Democratic Party won’t like it, but oh well. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Not in PA. Biden outperforming based on all the polls in your link in PA.

 

Joe Biden polling better than Sanders (for now) in his home state of PA does not buck the overall trend. And Sanders still beats Trump in the polls there consistently, which doesn'tsupport the idea that he isn't viable in the general electorate (note that Firehouse Strategies is a publicly Republican firm so I am disregarding): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That’s before six months of Trump and the Republicans literally screaming about socialism.

Screaming socialism only works with their base, which is much smaller than the democratic base. The only way the republicans win is by illegally suppressing the democratic vote. They know this which is why they are doing all that they can to do it. 

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troph

troph 24562

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Posted
She goes on and fights the good fight. She is truly a gifted individual with solid values and we need that right now. Sometimes, you get in the right place at the right time and fortune smile upon you....like it did on Kloby tonight. I think Liz has a valuable voice that needs to stay in.

I still think she’s the best candidate. I do think she had a hard time with Bernie keeping his base and she had no where to go really to get votes. I’d prefer her over every other candidate but I don’t see her path to winning. And the progressive versus moderate battle leaves her bumping up against Sanders or being someone she’s really not (anymore). When she moved a bit more to the center it all cratered. Sucks. I like her a lot.
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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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1 minute ago, Firemans4Horn said:

The rest of the developed world looks at Bernie Sanders brand of “Socialist” as barely center-left on the scale. Unfortunately the US populace has had their mind warped by cable tv. 

I mean, posters here are going to scream about how there is slight privatization of healthcare in Canada as if it's in any way comparable to what Bernie is pushing for.

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burntorangebongos

burntorangebongos 10681

Posted
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Why is MSNBC running her whole speech? That was weird. I will not have her crammed down my throat because that is who corporate America tolerates. Fuck that. I will turn into a fucking flaming Bernie Bro with giant hairy balls hanging out my tight cutoff jorts before I let that happen. hahaha, I just made myself laugh hard.

 

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12389

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Some good news for the Democrats in 538's chat tonight:

10:03 PM

You know, earlier tonight turnout looked to be lagging a bit behind the 2008 Democratic primary and slightly ahead of the 2016 race. But since then, it’s looking more likely it’ll match 2008. Looking at places that are 100 percent reporting and comparing their turnout in 2008 and 2016, the 2020 Democratic primary is now only 1 percent behind turnout in 2008 and is about 14 percent ahead of the 2016 primary.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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Why is MSNBC running her whole speech? That was weird. I will not have her crammed down my throat because that is who corporate America tolerates. Fuck that. I will turn into a fucking flaming Bernie Bro with giant hairy balls hanging out my tight cutoff jorts before I let that happen. hahaha, I just made myself laugh hard.
 

I would strongly suspect that MSNBC is going to run the speeches of each of the top 3 finalists.


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Message Board User

Message Board User 12389

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Just now, 406W30th said:

Good Lord is Chris Matthews a worthless piece of shit.

It is utterly insane the smoke MSNBC is blowing up our collective ass about Amy Klobuchar. She took 5th and 3rd in IA and NH, respectively. JFC.

 

She's also, somewhat amazingly, somehow polling WORSE than Mayor Pete among voters of color.  

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Brothahorn

Brothahorn 10085

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

She should have done her hair in cornrows tonight to try to drum up support from Blacks, knowing that we have Nevada & SC next.

 

Too late. Joe has SC locked up. After getting his ass kicked by the white folks in IA and NH, he goes 'home'. 

 

It's 2020 and people still do this shit..SMDH

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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Good Lord is Chris Matthews a worthless piece of shit.
It is utterly insane the smoke MSNBC is blowing up our collective ass about Amy Klobuchar. She took 5th and 3rd in IA and NH, respectively. JFC.
 

Don’t worry—if Buttigieg comes back to win this, nobody is going to be talking about Klobuchar tomorrow.


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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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I don't spend near as much time following this as most of you but am I wrong thinking that whichever of Biden/Buttigeg/Klobuchar are left standing will eventually consolidate all of those votes (or they will all just go Bloomberg if he makes a run).  Bernie (and Warren) has their base and they may be the most vocal but can they get to a majority as the field shrinks?  Seems like absolute best thing for Bernie would be for Warren to drop out sooner than later and start campaigning for him but don't know if they ever patched things up.  

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smuggs

smuggs 9342

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

She should have done her hair in cornrows tonight to try to drum up support from Blacks, knowing that we have Nevada & SC next.

Las Vegas show me love up in the Klob.

Charleston show me love up in the Klob.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

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50 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That’s before six months of Trump and the Republicans literally screaming about socialism.

Oh come on.

Mayor Pete said it himself. Who cares what the Rs think? If a moderate wins the nomination, they'll call him/her a socialist. If a progressive wins, ditto.

They screamed socialism from the rooftops in 2018 and it didn't change that election from being a good one for the Ds.

The boy who cried wolf, yada yada...

 

36 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I thought previous primaries showed that Iowa and New Hampshire really don’t matter much.

Obama won Iowa in 2008. Hillary won Iowa (barely) in 2016.

New Hampshire is less predictive for the Ds but has been nails for the Rs.

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bolverk

bolverk 29399

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8 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This is getting very interesting.


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It's been interesting, so much so I cannot go to sleep. It is 4:37 in CPH.

Have yourself a sixer if Carlsberg to wind down.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20704

Posted
Posted

I think Bernie will hold on tonight. I think you could say it's a good night for Bernie/Pete/Amy. 

Obviously Bernie is in a much better position than the other two heading into Nevada and SC and Super Tuesday. I think Amy will be properly vetted after tonight and will fade quickly after Nevada/SC, where she doesn't have much organization. The question is if Pete can kill off Biden by or before Nevada. Then he has a chance. 

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bolverk

bolverk 29399

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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
4 minutes ago, bolverk said:
Have yourself a sixer if Carlsberg to wind down.

I need to get up in 2 hours. FML. Day full of meetings. Yeah, here for work.

Based on my experience, Danes aren’t judgmental at all. /s

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Really interesting to see a Justice Dems person on CNN. Bernie basically has a surrogate on these election shows, which is different than 2016. 

Yeah they are great. 0-for in 2018? 

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10931

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Bernie didn't benefit from Warren's cratering tonight.  There's no way he's going to be the nominee.  He's got a hard cap of support.  Is there a betting platform where you can short his candidacy?

If enough "moderate" candidates stay in the race long enough he may just win. 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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Posted
1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

If enough "moderate" candidates stay in the race long enough he may just win. 

It's like people who have actual college degrees are too stupid to read polls. We're moving to a state where Pete and Amy both have weaker support and Biden literally is about to skip it to try and solidify his base in SC

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WBT

WBT 20422

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Bernie didn't benefit from Warren's cratering tonight.  There's no way he's going to be the nominee.  He's got a hard cap of support.  Is there a betting platform where you can short his candidacy?

I tend to agree and his cap seems to be even lower than 2016 because he picked up a sizable chunk of anyone but Hillary then.

But Trump also had a ceiling in the low to mid 40s but no one could consolidate the vote against him.

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