2020 Dems: New Hampshire (thank god, a normal primary)

[tantric superman 4667]

I think what jimmyjazz is trying to say, bt, is that your user name checks out.

[bad_teammate 13132]

Stop saying stupid shit.

Stop incessantly crying and making hysterical generalizations like Trump will "literally" end the USA and that some rowdy kids jeering a screen means Sanders supporters will stay home in the general.

It's pathetic.

[jimmyjazz 45558]

Just now, bad_teammate said:

Stop incessantly crying and making hysterical generalizations like Trump will "literally" end the USA and that some rowdy kids jeering a screen means Sanders supporters will stay home in the general.

It's pathetic.

This is the second time you've misrepresented what I said.  I fucking dare you to point out where I said that Trump "will literally end the USA".  I didn't say that.  I did say something similar with the clearly differentiated verb "could", but that's a far cry from "will".

You can't even fight fair.  It's no wonder you're a Bernie Bro.  Don't deny your demographic, embrace it.  It's pretty much sewn on your lapel, anyway.

[bad_teammate 13132]

What demographic? My personal one or the Bros?

Because the reality is that the Bros are, by far, the most diverse and youngest coalition going.

That doesn't describe me personally, but this board full of older whites spends a lot of energy crying about the misbehavior of young people and non-whites people.

BRING ME THE MANAGER RIGHT NOW!!!

[Celery Man 20886]

1 hour ago, tantric superman said:

I got pieces of Bernie Bros guys in my stool.

[jimmyjazz 45558]

23 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

What demographic? My personal one or the Bros?

Because the reality is that the Bros are, by far, the most diverse and youngest coalition going.

If by "diverse" you mean "idealogically incapable of discerning the fact that a centrist is better than a fascist", then sure, you have a point.

But keep railing against the olds.  We're your problem.  Gotcha.

[Hank Scorpio 17723]

 

[GSU&UT 1798]

But but those states are mostly white which means all those non-white voters in the others states hate him because ???

[bad_teammate 13132]

If by "diverse" you mean "idealogically incapable of discerning the fact that a centrist is better than a fascist", then sure, you have a point.

But keep railing against the olds.  We're your problem.  Gotcha.

Based on the volcanic emotional meltdown we are seeing on this board in reaction to his second vote win in a row, I'm not sure the centrists have the emotional fortitude to resist fascism if someone to their left beats them.

 

[Js1 85110]

Super fun watching Bernie Bros bitch and whine that the media isn’t screaming from the rooftops about Bernie’s wins. Why would they? The “entertainment” is Pete narrowly finishing second in both and Amy surging. Media is now entertainment. 

[alincoln 2364]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Super fun watching Bernie Bros bitch and whine that the media isn’t screaming from the rooftops about Bernie’s wins. Why would they? The “entertainment” is Pete narrowly finishing second in both and Amy surging. Media is now entertainment. 

Exactly.  Bernie basically performed to expectations in both IA and NH.  The more important story, and the one that media is focusing on, is that voters who abandoned Warren and Biden generally supported Pete or Klobuchar instead of Bernie.  Bernie's ability to expand his base beyond that core 25-30% is a real concern for him.  Fortunately for him, Biden and Warren likely won't drop out until after Super Tuesday and Bloomberg will further split the non-Bernie core support.  Brokered convention is definitely in the cards if Bernie's base doesn't expand.

[Message Board User 12389]

9 hours ago, smuggs said:

Las Vegas show me love up in the Klob.

Charleston show me love up in the Klob.

If she had said that last night I would have sold my house and donated all the money to her campaign.

[Pam Cummings 9581]

Bernie is clearly the guy, just fucking vote you fucktards.

[GSU&UT 1798]

5 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Bernie is clearly the guy, just fucking vote you fucktards.

It's amazing people cannot look at national polls where he is clearly the front-runner.

[Tuco 5076]

Just now, GSU&UT said:

It's amazing people cannot look at national polls where he is clearly the front-runner.

He's the clear frontrunner.  A month ago, Biden was. 

[Js1 85110]

1 minute ago, Tuco said:

He's the clear frontrunner.  A month ago, Biden was. 

Those didn’t count. Bc Bro logic 

[EMAWesome 101]

9 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

It's amazing people cannot look at national polls where he is clearly the front-runner.

He will get his clock cleaned by Trump in the general election.  He will have no chance to win Florida.  Every Cuban refugee in that state will come out to vote against him.  He will have no chance in Pennsylvania.  No one who includes banning fracking as part of their platform is winning Pennsylvania.  He isn't winning Nevada against Trump either.  Nevadans like their low taxes (another factor for Florida too) and no one involved in the gaming industry is going to be warm to Bernie.  There will be a lot of voters who may not like Trump the person, but they will like him more than they like Bernie the policy maker.   They would rather have Trump's hands on their pussy than Sanders's hands on their economy.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:

But but those states are mostly white which means all those non-white voters in the others states hate him because ???

Y'all are getting ahead of yourselves.  It's New Hampshire. Bernie absolutely crushed Hillary in New Hampshire after running neck and neck with her in Iowa. Hard to make an exact comparison because of the field depth this year, but so far Bernie has equaled his 2016 Iowa performance and underperformed his 2016 NH performance.  It was a close race.  Him crushing it with NH's 3 non-white voters notwithstanding. 

I'm not sure why y'all do this to yourselves every year. There is a long way to go, and you're already trying to set up the "fix is in" argument.  Vermont Senators do well in New Hampshire unless they shit down their leg like Dean.  Progressives and other grassroots campaigns do well in Iowa.  Winning there does not equal winning America. 

Pete is the big surprise because he is seemingly taking Biden's spot. Bernie, thus far, is performing as expected. Of course that is what makes the news. 

Edited February 12, 2020 by FondrenRoad

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 minute ago, EMAWesome said:

He will get his clock cleaned by Trump in the general election.  He will have no chance to win Florida.  Every Cuban refugee in that state will come out to vote against him.  He will have no chance in Pennsylvania.  No one who includes banning fracking as part of their platform is winning Pennsylvania.  He isn't winning Nevada against Trump either.  Nevadans like their low taxes (another factor for Florida too) and no one involved in the gaming industry is going to be warm to Bernie.  There will be a lot of voters who may not like Trump the person, but they will like him more than they like Bernie the policy maker.   They would rather have Trump's hands on their pussy than Sanders's hands on their economy.

We got it. You’re playing the role of a trump voting idiot on the net. But it’s getting kind of stale. At least try to be entertaining about it. 

[GSU&UT 1798]

2 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Y'all are getting ahead of yourselves.  It's New Hampshire. Bernie absolutely crushed Hillary in New Hampshire after running neck and neck with her in Iowa. Hard to make an exact comparison because of the field depth this year, but so far Bernie has equaled his 2016 Iowa performance and underperformed his 2016 NH performance.  It was a close race.  Him crushing it with NH's 3 non-white voters notwithstanding. 

I'm not sure why y'all do this to yourselves every year. There is a long way to go, and you're already trying to set up the "fix is in" argument.  Vermont Senators do well in New Hampshire unless they shit down their leg like Dean.  Progressives and other grassroots campaigns do well in Iowa.  Winning there does not equal winning America. 

Pete is the big surprise because he is seemingly taking Biden's spot. Bernie, thus far, is performing as expected. Of course that is what makes the news. 

Again, I ask you have you looked at any national polling with people who aren't white? The only other person I can see, because Biden is cratering, is Bloomberg and he will be able to money whip his way to some votes. I think Bernie would obviously run attack ads against him as he's raking in tons of donations himself.

[EMAWesome 101]

Just now, JimmyJames said:

We got it. You’re playing the role of a trump voting idiot on the net. But it’s getting kind of stale. At least try to be entertaining about it. 

You have to know your audience.  I try to keep it as simple as I can and 90% of it still goes over everyone's head around here.  No sense in getting fancy.  I'd just be wasting good material.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

Just now, GSU&UT said:

Again, I ask you have you looked at any national polling with people who aren't white? The only other person I can see, because Biden is cratering, is Bloomberg and he will be able to money whip his way to some votes. I think Bernie would obviously run attack ads against him as he's raking in tons of donations himself.

Yeah, plenty. I think the establishment may be consolidating around Pete with Forever Hillary (they exist) voters going for Klobuchar. I also think Biden will make a comeback in the south.  That split could be enough to put Bernie over the top if Warren drops out soon.

But I can also see NH's results.  The combined 3 establishment candidates beat the combined 2 progressives. This is the opposite of 2016 where the progressive vote total was a decisive winner.  This shows movement in the centrist direction, likely from the lack of a GOP primary and from Never Trump Republicans joining the ranks of the Dems. You forget that there are loads of new Dems like Ghost of LL throughout the country. Progressives were always mostly Dems. 

All I'm saying is, don't count your chickens yet, and don't get too upset if Bernie loses this thing.  The primary will be fair.  The voting machines won't start erroring out in Atlanta and Charlotte until the general. 

 

[jimmyjazz 45558]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Based on the volcanic emotional meltdown we are seeing on this board in reaction to his second vote win in a row, I'm not sure the centrists have the emotional fortitude to resist fascism if someone to their left beats them.

 

Who is melting down over Bernie's apparent victory?  Make shit up much?

The problem, dear reader, is that too many Berners will not do the right thing if he DOESN'T get the nomination, because too many Berners are fucking idiots who couldn't care less about our country.  That apparently includes you.

[Hank Kingsley 20704]

10 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Y'all are getting ahead of yourselves.  It's New Hampshire. Bernie absolutely crushed Hillary in New Hampshire after running neck and neck with her in Iowa. Hard to make an exact comparison because of the field depth this year, but so far Bernie has equaled his 2016 Iowa performance and underperformed his 2016 NH performance.  It was a close race.  Him crushing it with NH's 3 non-white voters notwithstanding. 

I'm not sure why y'all do this to yourselves every year. There is a long way to go, and you're already trying to set up the "fix is in" argument.  Vermont Senators do well in New Hampshire unless they shit down their leg like Dean.  Progressives and other grassroots campaigns do well in Iowa.  Winning there does not equal winning America. 

Pete is the big surprise because he is seemingly taking Biden's spot. Bernie, thus far, is performing as expected. Of course that is what makes the news. 

Pete and Bernie people can spin the NH results into their favor and both of their arguments would make sense.

Bernie has, by far, the clearer path to the nomination. He's a nationally known politician that has been organizing throughout the country for years, and his raising tons of $$$ from a huge donor pool.  His head start with the American electorate will be extremely difficult to overcome.

The fact that we can still see a path for Buttigieg, no matter how slim, is a testament to his campaign and political skills. 

 

[troph 24562]

Stop incessantly crying and making hysterical generalizations like Trump will "literally" end the USA and that some rowdy kids jeering a screen means Sanders supporters will stay home in the general.

It's pathetic.

Trump will ruin America for people like me with a second term. That’s a certainty.

And you’ve stated the situations where you won’t vote for anyone but Trump.

It’s not pathetic, it’s an existential crisis for some of us.

Stop being hypocritically obtuse.

[Js1 85110]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Pete and Bernie people can spin the NH results into their favor and both of their arguments would make sense.

Bernie has, by far, the clearer path to the nomination. He's a nationally known politician that has been organizing throughout the country for years, and his raising tons of $$$ from a huge donor pool.  His head start with the American electorate will be extremely difficult to overcome.

The fact that we can still see a path for Buttigieg, no matter how slim, is a testament to his campaign and political skills. 

 

And on the flip side, Bernie has seemingly NOT Expanded his coalition after 5 years of running for president. Which is obvious, since people don’t like being called corporate whores, shit libs, faggy centrists, cop supporters, etc. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Who is melting down over Bernie's apparent victory?  Make shit up much?

The problem, dear reader, is that too many Berners will not do the right thing if he DOESN'T get the nomination, because too many Berners are fucking idiots who couldn't care less about our country.  That apparently includes you.

Right. They are already setting the table for "the fix is in" bullshit argument again. So far, Bernie is underperforming 2016 whether the bros want to believe it or not.  Can he do better than 2016 in large states and win the whole thing? Sure, anything can happen. But right now, I'm not seeing the landslide or even the win they see. 

Even more evidence that small rural all white states shouldn't be the first to vote. 

[troph 24562]

Based on the volcanic emotional meltdown we are seeing on this board in reaction to his second vote win in a row, I'm not sure the centrists have the emotional fortitude to resist fascism if someone to their left beats them. 

 

All I see in terms of a meltdown is you crowing like a fucking toddler about a win and how everyone hates Bernie like Texas just beat SEC for a natty and we’re bitching about ESPN commentary.

 

Screw that. Lives are at stake. Act like an adult.

 

Bernie is fine, he could win the nomination and best trump. When he wins we still have to govern and with your kind screaming and hollering like juveniles it only makes it harder.

[Js1 85110]

1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

Right. They are already setting the table for "the fix is in" bullshit argument again. So far, Bernie is underperforming 2016 whether the bros want to believe it or not.  Can he do better than 2016 in large states and win the whole thing? Sure, anything can happen. But right now, I'm not seeing the landslide or even the win they see. 

Even more evidence that small rural all white states shouldn't be the first to vote. 

Bakari Sellers has a great proposal. Make IA, NH, SC and NV all vote on the same day. No momentum, no polling bounces, more diversity, etc. 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Js1

[troph 24562]

Super fun watching Bernie Bros bitch and whine that the media isn’t screaming from the rooftops about Bernie’s wins. Why would they? The “entertainment” is Pete narrowly finishing second in both and Amy surging. Media is now entertainment. 

I saw plenty of Bernie is the undisputed front runner talk too and that he’s poised to go into Super Tuesday with a win in NV as well and a solid finish in SC. I saw plenty of commentary talking about Amy and Pete are not ready for the prime time in minority majority or at least plurality states. The dismissing of Bernie is largely over hyped. Plenty of commentators talked about his viability and campaign sustainability. I even heard one say that Bloomberg is perfect for Bernie’s message and Bernie has the donor base to go toe to toe with him.

The echo chamber is largely idiots shouting ESPN is pro SEC. he’s winning, be graceful about it, build a coalition. Plenty of people want to and will join. Stop making it harder for them.

[EMAWesome 101]

https://medium.com/@karlyn/ive-been-a-democrat-for-20-years-here-s-what-i-experienced-at-trump-s-rally-in-new-hampshire-c69ddaaf6d07

 

I’ve been a Democrat for 20 years. Here’s what I experienced at Trump’s rally in New Hampshire.

 

Normally when I publish content online, I focus on the world of work. I hope you’ll forgive this brief departure, but I think that those of us on the left need to take a long look in the mirror and have an honest conversation about what’s going on.

If you had told me 3 years ago that I would ever attend a Donald Trump rally, I would have laughed while assuring you that was never going to happen. Heck, if you had told me I would do it 3 months ago, I probably would have done the same thing. So, how did I find myself among 11,000+ Trump supporters in Manchester NH? Believe it or not, it all started with knitting.

You might not think of the knitting world as a particularly political community, but you’d be wrong. Many knitters are particularly active in social justice communities and love to discuss the revolutionary role that knitters have played in our culture.

As a casual knitter, I never really paid attention to this. I knit as a way to relax and escape the drama of real life, not to further engage with it, but for anyone who is active in the knitting world on Instagram, it became almost impossible to avoid it. It started about a year ago when roving gangs of online social justice warriors started going after anyone who was not lockstep in their ideology. People were bullied and mobbed by hundreds of people for such offenses as publishing an article expressing excitement about going on a trip to India, posting a video saying they were leaving IG because they were uncomfortable, and posting a poem asking for kindness. Katherine Jepsen Moore has documented the full stories extensively and the BBC recently covered it as well.

I started paying attention after one man who was attacked got mobbed so badly that he had a nervous breakdown and was admitted to the hospital on suicide watch. There was something that was not right (well, so many things really) and it witnessing the vitriol coming from those who I had aligned myself with politically was a massive wake up call.

You see, I was one of those Democrats who considered anyone who voted for Trump a racist. I thought they were horrible (yes, even deplorable) and had worked very hard to eliminate their voices from my spaces by unfriending or blocking people who spoke about their support of him, however minor their comments. I watched a lot of MSNBC, was convinced that everything he had done was horrible, that he hated anyone that wasn’t a straight, white man, and that he had no redeeming qualities.

But when I witnessed the amount of hate coming from the left in this small, niche knitting community, I started to question everything. I started making a proactive effort to break my echo chamber by listening to voices I thought I would disagree with. I wanted to understand their perspective, believing it would confirm that they were filled with hate for anyone that wasn’t like them.

That turned out not to be the case. The more voices outside of the left I listened to, the more I realized that these were not bad people. They were not racists, nazis, or white supremacists. We had differences of opinions on social and economic issues, but a difference of opinion does not make your opponent inherently evil. And they could justify their opinions using arguments, rather than the shouting and ranting I had seen coming from my side of the aisle.

I started to discover (or perhaps rediscover) the #WalkAway movement. I had heard about #WalkAway when MSNBC told me it was fake and a bunch of Russian bots. But then I started to meet real people who had been Democrats who had made the decision to leave because they could not stand the way the left was acting. I watched town halls they held with different minority communities (all available in their entirety on YouTube) and I saw sane, rational discussion from people of all different races, backgrounds, orientations, and experiences. I joined the Facebook group for the community and saw stories popping up daily of people sharing why they are leaving the Democratic party. This wasn’t fake. These people are not Russian bots. And moreover, it felt like a breath of fresh air. There was not universal agreement in this group — some were Trump supporters, some weren’t — but they talked and shared their perspective without shouting or rage or trying to cancel each other.

I started to question everything. How many stories had I been sold that weren’t true? What if my perception of the other side is wrong? How is it possible that half of the country is really overtly racist? Is it possible that Trump Derangement Syndrome is a real thing, and had I been suffering from it for the past three years?

And the biggest question of all was this: Did I hate Trump so much that I wanted to see my country fail just to spite him and everyone who voted for him?

Fast forward to the New Hampshire primary and we have all the politicians running around the state making their case. I’ve seen almost every Democratic candidate in person and almost universally their message is one of doom and gloom, focusing on not only on the obvious disagreements with Donald Trump but also making sure to emphasize that the country is a horribly racist place.

Now, I do believe there are very real issues when it comes to race that we as a society have yet to reckon with. I believe that everyone from every background of every gender should have equal access to opportunities and that no one is inherently more or less valuable or worthy than anyone else. And while Charlottesville was a tragedy precipitated by real racists and real nazis and real white supremacists, I started to see that those labels simply don’t apply to most people who support Trump.

But with all of this, I was still reticent to even consider attending a Trump event. I do not believe that Trump’s attitude is worthy of the highest office in the land. I abhor his Twitter. I am vehemently opposed to so many of his policies. But still, I wanted to see for myself.

I’m not going to lie, I was nervous, so I thought I would start my day in familiar territory at an MSNBC live show that was taking place a few blocks away from the rally. I decided to wear my red hat that looks like a Trump hat but with one small difference — it says “Make Speech Free Again” as my small protest against cancel culture. I even got a photo with MSNBC host Ari Melber while I was wearing it, just for kicks.

The funny thing about that hat is that it’s completely open to interpretation. When I wear it around left-leaning people, they think I’m talking about the right. When I wear it around right-leaning folks, they think I’m talking about the left. It’s a really stark reminder of how much our own perspectives and biases play into how we view the world.

In chatting with the folks at the taping, I said casually that I was thinking about going over to the Trump rally. The first reaction they had was a genuine fear for my safety. I had never seen people I didn’t know so passionately urge me to avoid all of those people. One woman told me that these people were the lowest of the low. Another man told me that he had gone to one of his rallies in the past and had been the target of harassment by large muscle-bound men. Another woman offered me her pepper spray. I assured them all that I thought I would be fine but that I would get the heck out of dodge if I got nervous.

What they didn’t know is that they weren’t the only ones I had heard from that were afraid. Some of my more right-leaning friends online had expressed genuine fear at my going as well….but not because they were afraid of the attendees. They were afraid of people on the left violently attacking attendees! This was one day after a man had run his car through a republican voter registration tent in Florida and there was a genuine fear that there would be a repeat, or that Antifa would bus people up from Boston for it. Just as I had assured those on the left, I told them I thought I would be fine because we don’t really have Antifa in New Hampshire.

But I’m not going to say it didn’t get to me a bit. When everyone around you is nervous for your safety, it’s hard not to question if they have a point. But it also made me more determined to see it through because it was a stark reminder that both sides view each other exactly the same way. They are both scared of the other side and what they are capable of. I couldn’t help but think that if they could just see the world through the lens of the other for a moment or two, it would be a stark revelation that they don’t know as much as they think they do.

So I headed over an hour and a half before the doors were scheduled to open (which was 4 hours before Trump was set to take the stage) and the line already stretched a mile away from the entrance to the arena. As I waited, I chatted with the folks around me. And contrary to all the fears expressed, they were so nice! I was not harassed or intimidated and was never in fear of my safety even for a moment. These were average everyday people. They were veterans, school teachers, and small business owners and they had come from all over the place for the thrill of attending this rally. They were upbeat and excited. In chatting, I even let it slip that I was a democrat and the reaction was “Good for you! Welcome!”

Once we got inside, the atmosphere was jubilant! It was more like attending a rock concert than a political rally. People were genuinely enjoying themselves. Some were even dancing to music being played over the loudspeakers! It was so different than any other political event I had ever attended. Even Obama in 2008 didn’t feel like this.

I had attended an event with all of the Democratic contenders just two days prior in exactly the same arena and the contrast was stark. First, Trump completely filled the arena all the way up to the top. Even with every major Democratic candidate in attendance the other night, and the campaigns giving away free tickets, the Democrats did not do that. With Trump, every single person was unified around a singular goal. With the Democrats, the audience booed over candidates they didn’t like and got in literal shouting matches with each other. With Trump, there was a genuinely optimistic view of the future. With the Democrats, it was doom and gloom. With Trump, there was a genuine feeling of pride of being an American. With the Democrats, they emphasized that the country was a racist place from top to bottom.

Now, Trump is always going to present the best case he can. And yes, he lies. This is provable. But the strength of this rally wasn’t about the facts and figures. It was a group of people who felt like they had someone in their corner, that would fight for them. Some people say “well obviously they’re having a great time. They’re in a cult.” I don’t think that’s true. The reality is that many people I spoke to do disagree with Trump on things. They don’t always like his attitude. They wish he wouldn’t tweet so much. People who are in cults don’t question their leaders. The people I spoke with did, but the pros in their eyes far outweighed the cons. They don’t love him because they think he’s perfect. They love him despite his flaws because they believe he has their back.

As I left the rally (walking by thousands of people who were watching it on a giant monitor outside of the arena because they couldn’t get in), I knew that there was no way Trump was going to lose in November. Absolutely no way. I truly believe that it doesn’t matter who the Democrats nominate: Trump is going to trounce them. If you don’t believe me, attend one of his rallies and see for yourself. Don’t worry, they really won’t hurt you.

Today, I voted in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Pete Buttigieg. I genuinely feel that Pete would be great for this country, and maybe he’ll have his opportunity in the future. But tomorrow, I’ll be changing my voter registration from Democrat to Independent and walking away from the party I’ve spent the last 20 years in to sit in the middle for a while. There are extremes in both parties that I am uncomfortable with, but I also fundamentally believe that most people on both sides are good, decent human beings that want the best for the country but have dramatic disagreements on how to get there. But until we start seeing each other as human beings, there will be no bridging the divide. I refuse to be a part of the divisiveness any longer. I refuse to hate people I don’t know simply because they choose to vote for someone else. If we’re going to heal the country, we have to start taking steps towards one another rather than away.

I think the Democrats have an ass-kicking coming to them in November, and I think most of them will be utterly shocked when it happens because they’re existing in an echo chamber that is not reflective of the broader reality. I hope it’s a wake-up call and causes them to take a long look in the mirror and really ask themselves how they got here. Maybe then they’ll start listening. I tend to doubt it, but I can hope.

[troph 24562]

Exactly.  Bernie basically performed to expectations in both IA and NH.  The more important story, and the one that media is focusing on, is that voters who abandoned Warren and Biden generally supported Pete or Klobuchar instead of Bernie.  Bernie's ability to expand his base beyond that core 25-30% is a real concern for him.  Fortunately for him, Biden and Warren likely won't drop out until after Super Tuesday and Bloomberg will further split the non-Bernie core support.  Brokered convention is definitely in the cards if Bernie's base doesn't expand.

For the nomination yes, but 98% of those who voted in the primary will vote for Bernie in the general and in NH 10% of R’s voted for trumps primary opponent. He should be fine if he can get the nomination.

I do think yang’s 2-3% probably goes to Bernie.

I think Bloomberg eats Biden for lunch in Super Tuesday.

Question is where do Pete and Amy votes go if Bloomberg emerges. Warrens too when she drops out. Amy may have taken from Warren but the remaining Warren base is progressive I think, that goes to Bernie.

He should arrive in Milwaukee (is it?) in a strong position.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

 

All I see in terms of a meltdown is you crowing like a fucking toddler about a win and how everyone hates Bernie like Texas just beat SEC for a natty and we’re bitching about ESPN commentary.

Screw that’s. Lives are at stake. Act like an adult.

Bernie is fine, he could win the nomination and best trump. When he wins we still have to govern and with your kind screaming and hollering like juveniles it only makes it harder.

 

Yep. I like Bernie, but M4A won't happen with him at the helm. He needs moderate Dem support in the house so he will need to repackage it and compromise.  The bros won't allow that, so not only will M4A be DOA, so will any type of healthcare reform. 

And I agree with you. The damage Trump can do in another four years should not be understated.  Equal protection is certainly in peril from Trump judge appointments. Even more dire will be the complete destruction of institutional knowledge in our regulatory agencies. Even in 4 years, we have seen loads of whistleblowers who step down and see their whistles unanswered. In 8, there will be almost none left. Pruitt and Wheeler have been hiring their replacements at the EPA. 

[Beantown Express 2.0 6554]

What is the fucking hurry about declaring the democratic nominee right now?  We have a process so let it play out.  Bernie won two small states (IA and NH).  I am pretty sure we don't want to base the nominee on these states or we could have ended up with a President Huckabee or President Santorum.  In a month we will have gone through a few more states and Super Tuesday and if Bernie is still winning all of those he has a good shot at the nomination.  We really do this ass backwards as a country and should implement something like noted in the post above what Bakari Sellers is pushing.  Have 4 diverse states every couple of weeks.  Throw some big ones in there like PA, MI, IL, FL along with NV, SC, NH, IA, and mix them up so we can get a good mix of what the country wants.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6554]

4 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

https://medium.com/@karlyn/ive-been-a-democrat-for-20-years-here-s-what-i-experienced-at-trump-s-rally-in-new-hampshire-c69ddaaf6d07

 

 

 

Negged for spamming this forum with propaganda.  It should have been titled "Knitter becomes a Nazi".

[Biff Tannen 45495]

nvm

Edited February 12, 2020 by Biff Tannen

[Doc Sam Beckett 5784]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Bakari Sellers has a great proposal. Make IA, NH, SC and NV all vote on the same day. No momentum, no polling bounces, more diversity, etc. 

This is decent, but not nearly as good as the proposal by Dr Sam Beckett to put IA, NH, SC, and NV at the end of the line where they belong. 

[EMAWesome 101]

6 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Negged for spamming this forum with propaganda.  It should have been titled "Knitter becomes a Nazi".

Go back to your knitting.

[TXSG8R 3360]

9 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The Bros will rationalize anything Bernie does just like the Trumpkins do with their guy.

The only way to stop a bad guy with a cult is to have a good guy with a cult?

[GSU&UT 1798]

1 hour ago, troph said:

I saw plenty of Bernie is the undisputed front runner talk too and that he’s poised to go into Super Tuesday with a win in NV as well and a solid finish in SC. I saw plenty of commentary talking about Amy and Pete are not ready for the prime time in minority majority or at least plurality states. The dismissing of Bernie is largely over hyped. Plenty of commentators talked about his viability and campaign sustainability. I even heard one say that Bloomberg is perfect for Bernie’s message and Bernie has the donor base to go toe to toe with him.

The echo chamber is largely idiots shouting ESPN is pro SEC. he’s winning, be graceful about it, build a coalition. Plenty of people want to and will join. Stop making it harder for them.

Did you miss this? You can get mad at us all you want, but perception is reality for people who aren't the bros as you say.

I'm listening to NPR right now, and all they're talking about is Pete and Amy. It's not a conspiracy, but for someone who's the frontrunner he isn't getting as much discussion as anyone else would if they were in his position. 

Edit: They then spent the rest of the time during my drive discussing Bloomberg

Edited February 12, 2020 by GSU&UT

[Ghost of LL 15492]

13 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

This post and the (relatively) high number of likes in a short amount of time...

 

So there are some similarities, no doubt--a fractured field, an unconventional candidate, a flailing Jeb!

But there are a lot more differences that I think people are overlooking:

1) Trump was the only candidate to recognize that racism and xenophobia were the animating forces in the Republican Party.  As soon as he created the permission structure, Republicans flocked to his racist campaign.

The Democratic Party is not a socialist party.  Sanders has run before.  The permission structure is there.  If a majority of Democrats were closeted socialists, they would've come out of the woodwork by now.  But they're not.  And that necessarily puts a pretty hard cap on Sanders' support (at least until the horsetrading in a contested convention).

2) In 2016, the Republican establishment was thoroughly discredited.  It had been out of power for eight years, so it had necessarily atrophied.  But more to the point, it was an established that led us into a failed war and the Great Recession.  There was nothing and nobody to rally the forces of the "establishment" against Sanders.

The exact opposite is true with the Democratic Party.  The establishment of the Democratic Party was in power just four years ago.  And they were in power in an administration that brought us 11 years of economic growth.  And, most recently, they took the House in 2018.  They're not discredited; they're empowered.

And lurking behind that is the great Democratic Party fire alarm:

3) In 2016, George W. Bush sat on the sidelines painting.  He had no role at the convention.  Nobody wanted to hear from him.  And he knew that.  He would've loved to have wrestled the party away from Trump.  But his administration was such a failure that he had no standing to do so.

The Democrats don't have that handicap.  They have a fire alarm that reads "Barack Obama."  One call from Obama, and the "establishment" candidates clear the field.

And when it comes time for the convention, Obama's going to trot out there and unify the party.  July is a long way away.  The hurt feelings will subside.  And ultimately this is going to turn out to be a pretty unified party, no matter who the nominee is.

 

13 hours ago, Calihorn said:

Ah, there it is. Clearly, there's no difference between running against just Hillary, and running against 4 other serious candidates.

There is a difference, and it's hugely instructive.

In a two-person race, a number of a candidate's voters are going to be more anti-other-guy than they are going to be pro-you.  The challenge is figuring out how many people really support you and your positions, and how many just opposed the other guy.

Well, we've now run a pretty good experiment with that, and it turns out that Bernie isn't nearly as popular as his 2016 vote totals would indicate.  It seems that more than half his 2016 "support" was really just an anti-Hillary vote (which actually squares with her performance in the general election).

The real question is: if this race gets narrowed down to Sanders and someone else, can Sanders recreate that anti-other-guy coalition and turn it into a majority this time.  That would have to be the game plan for him.  But with his inability to attract Warren's voters as she declined over the past couple months, one has to be skeptical of that strategy.

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

47 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Negged for spamming this forum with propaganda.  It should have been titled "Knitter becomes a Nazi".

Was it another some libs were mean to me so now I’m voting for trump bullshit story? Those are even more prevalent than trump big man crying lies. 

[Serak The Preparer 3424]

10 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh fuck off.  Once again, you miss the entire point.  Bernie Bros are a detriment to our country's future, full stop.  

I'll vote for Bernie.  Most Bernie Bros won't vote for a Democrat.  See the problem here?  Of course you don't.  You don't see it as a problem at all.

How do you define Bernie Bro? Is that all Bernie supporters? Either way, how the hell do you figure that "most won't vote for a Democrat"? I would imagine certainly there are some who wouldn't, just as I imagine there are supporters of other candidates who also wouldn't vote for a Democrat, but I keep reading this without understanding the basis for the specific claim about Bernie supporters.

 

Disclaimer: While Bernie is not my first choice candidate, he is my second. My first is Warren, but either way I'm going to vote for the Dem candidate.

[JimmyJames 12271]

All this Bernie performed better in New Hampshire in 2016 talk and tea leaf reading ignores the fact that Hillary was on the ballot in 2016 and not in 2020. She was uniquely unpopular among independents and New Hampshire is full of them. 

[Js1 85110]

Quote

Well, we've now run a pretty good experiment with that, and it turns out that Bernie isn't nearly as popular as his 2016 vote totals would indicate.  It seems that more than half his 2016 "support" was really just an anti-Hillary vote (which actually squares with her performance in the general election).

This is extremely true.

Bernie holds onto his support - massively - from 2016.  But the vast majority of Clinton voters go to Biden/Pete/Amy.  And he is bleeding some of his support to non-Biden candidates.

Also curious that he's getting a smaller share of "non-voters" from 2016 than the others.  I thought that was his big appeal? 

 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So there are some similarities, no doubt--a fractured field, an unconventional candidate, a flailing Jeb!

 

 

There is a difference, and it's hugely instructive.

In a two-person race, a number of a candidate's voters are going to be more anti-other-guy than they are going to be pro-you.  The challenge is figuring out how many people really support you and your positions, and how many just opposed the other guy.

Well, we've now run a pretty good experiment with that, and it turns out that Bernie isn't nearly as popular as his 2016 vote totals would indicate.  It seems that more than half his 2016 "support" was really just an anti-Hillary vote (which actually squares with her performance in the general election).

The real question is: if this race gets narrowed down to Sanders and someone else, can Sanders recreate that anti-other-guy coalition and turn it into a majority this time.  That would have to be the game plan for him.  But with his inability to attract Warren's voters as she declined over the past couple months, one has to be skeptical of that strategy.

 

And that was mostly my point.

[jimmyjazz 45558]

6 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

How do you define Bernie Bro? Is that all Bernie supporters?

It's like good art -- I know it when I see it.  Certainly, I don't think all Bernie supporters are "Bernie Bros".

 

 

[Jack 51]

It's a huge mistake to make too much of the caucusing of New Hampshire and Iowa.  Those are the two primaries where minorities are pretty much non-existent. 

Mayor Pete has next to zero minority support.  Sanders also has something to prove due to him losing the minority vote to Clinton. 

We need to see how these candidates perform in states that actually matter.

 

[triplehorn 2664]

Crazy stat:

 

 

[bad_teammate 13132]

1 hour ago, troph said:

Trump will ruin America for people like me with a second term. That’s a certainty.

Howso?

The courts? I can see a path to oppression there, sure, but do you realize that Kavanaugh is on the bench because of Mike Bloomberg?

The oligarchy will increase LGBT representation among the ruling class, but the vast majority of the LGBT community doesn't meet their gaze and will continue to be crushed and humiliated under the boot of the oligarchy's beloved wealth class system.

Quote

All I see in terms of a meltdown is you crowing like a fucking toddler about a win and how everyone hates Bernie like Texas just beat SEC for a natty and we’re bitching about ESPN commentary.

This is just an obvious lie that you could not possibly back up with actual quotes from this forum. You're wrestling with phantoms and hoping that just increasing the volume of your rhetoric will cover the lie. I've probably posted more about wanting to sleep with Klobuchar than anything resembling "crowing" about Bernie's win

Quote me.

(Also, I still want Amy's hotel key. I'll meet her in Nevada.)

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's like good art -- I know it when I see it.  Certainly, I don't think all Bernie supporters are "Bernie Bros".

What proportion of Bernie's voting base do you think fits the "Bernie Bro" stereotype that this board is so transfixed by?