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2020 Dems: New Hampshire (thank god, a normal primary)

bad_teammate

By bad_teammate
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Js1

Js1 85109

Posted
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7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Crazy stat:

 

 

Actually the actual article says Pete/Amy split those who decided in the closing days

They also took 60% combined from the people who said age is an issue (20%) 

Amy kicked ass with seniors.  Joe's support is GONE. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Crazy stat:

 

 

Fickle fans follow fashions.

I don't mean that as an insult against Pete, but the flock will move to the hot new item. This is why I predicted a Pete victory in NH; he had heat off of "winning" Iowa narrative in the media for a week and a TON of voters were undecided. (@Anastasis said it was because I was just emotionally hedging my bets, the big mean jerkface rude guy. :( )

It's also why I said Pete needed to win NH. He knew it, too, which is why his speech sounded like he won.

If Pete can recapture his post-Iowa heat, maybe they stick. If not... buh-bye surge.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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9 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

 

 

2 hours ago, GSU&UT said:

But but those states are mostly white which means all those non-white voters in the others states hate him because ???

And by the way, these are bad political takes.

New Hampshire is usually not particularly important for who wins.  It's often a candidate with some regional appeal (I see you, Paul Tsongas).  And if it's not that, it's the frontrunner (hi, George W. Bush).  And sometimes, it's the combination of the two (Surfin' John Kerry).  Bernie Sanders falls into that last category.

New Hampshire doesn't confer the nomination.  So who wins it isn't necessarily the top-line item.

What New Hampshire can do is confer viability or confirm non-viability.

That's why the top line in New Hampshire is almost always what happens with the second- or third-place finishers.  It's why Bill Clinton "won" New Hampshire in 1992, even though he was a distance second to Tsongas.  It's also why Pat Buchanan very much won in New Hampshire that same year.

It's why Howard Dean was so fucking excited in 2004 that he screamed into a television camera.  It was a simpler time when that was disqualifying.  He apparently didn't have the temperament to be commander-in-chief.

And it's why the lead headline in 2000 wasn't so much that Al Gore won--he was supposed to--but that Bill Bradley did so badly, which pretty much cleared the way for Gore's nomination.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

And by the way, these are bad political takes.

New Hampshire is usually not particularly important for who wins.  It's often a candidate with some regional appeal (I see you, Paul Tsongas).  And if it's not that, it's the frontrunner (hi, George W. Bush).  And sometimes, it's the combination of the two (Surfin' John Kerry).  Bernie Sanders falls into that last category.

New Hampshire doesn't confer the nomination.  So who wins it isn't necessarily the top-line item.

What New Hampshire can do is confer viability or confirm non-viability.

That's why the top line in New Hampshire is almost always what happens with the second- or third-place finishers.  It's why Bill Clinton "won" New Hampshire in 1992, even though he was a distance second to Tsongas.  It's also why Pat Buchanan very much won in New Hampshire that same year.

It's why Howard Dean was so fucking excited in 2004 that he screamed into a television camera.  It was a simpler time when that was disqualifying.  He apparently didn't have the temperament to be commander-in-chief.

And it's why the lead headline in 2000 wasn't so much that Al Gore won--he was supposed to--but that Bill Bradley did so badly, which pretty much cleared the way for Gore's nomination.

Or to put it differently, you can't win the race in Hew Hampshire, you sure can lose it though (Hi Mr. Biden).

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Bernie did not impress in NH and I didn't expect him to.

The Clinton callback is interesting. His path was through the South, so showing strength in NH was just a sign of his overall legitimacy.

Amy and Pete showing strength in lily-white states is kind of the flip of what Clinton did. He proved himself in NH, and Pete and Amy will have to prove themselves in Nevada/SC.

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heso

heso 2748

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34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

Just on the surface this graphic is bullshit. If you’re going to make an infographic to visualize data, at least make an attempt to make it somewhat accurate. That non-voter section should be less than half the size of Hillary’s section. There was a 40k increase in turnout to Hillary’s 95k votes. When you can’t even get that basic part right, it probably means your voodoo formulas are probably bullshit too. 

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Js1

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1 minute ago, Calihorn said:

Or to put it differently, you can't win the race in Hew Hampshire, you sure can lose it though (Hi Mr. Biden).

Yes.  The story should be:

Bernie wins NH, as everyone expected
BUT...Pete was very close to an upset (continues to be viable)
AND... Amy's 3rd place finish with 20% of the vote is extremely viable for her

BUT ALSO... Warren and Biden are scuffling badly. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20697

Posted
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Jack said:

Mayor Pete has next to zero minority support.

 

This doesn’t get a lot of attention because it doesn’t  fit the narrative, but Pete jumped up 7 points with POC in the latest National Monmouth Poll.

IMO viability has been Pete’s biggest issue with black support in polling. His numbers will look better in polls that come out over the next week now that he’s performed well in Iowa and NH.

 

Edited by Hank Kingsley
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Texas73

Texas73 420

Posted
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2 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yeah, plenty. I think the establishment may be consolidating around Pete with Forever Hillary (they exist) voters going for Klobuchar. I also think Biden will make a comeback in the south.  That split could be enough to put Bernie over the top if Warren drops out soon.

But I can also see NH's results.  The combined 3 establishment candidates beat the combined 2 progressives. This is the opposite of 2016 where the progressive vote total was a decisive winner.  This shows movement in the centrist direction, likely from the lack of a GOP primary and from Never Trump Republicans joining the ranks of the Dems. You forget that there are loads of new Dems like Ghost of LL throughout the country. Progressives were always mostly Dems. 

All I'm saying is, don't count your chickens yet, and don't get too upset if Bernie loses this thing.  The primary will be fair.  The voting machines won't start erroring out in Atlanta and Charlotte until the general. 

 

My thoughts exactly. Bernie won New Hampshire, yeah, with 26% of the vote, meaning 74% didn't vote for him. Mayor Pete and Amy won 44% of the vote. I don't get the crowing all the Bernie folks are doing.

Oh yeah, I remember all the yelling at the Clinton delegates at the Travis County Democratic Convention by the Bernie delegates. In my opinion they were/are insufferable if they don't get their way. 

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Js1

Js1 85109

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3 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

My thoughts exactly. Bernie won New Hampshire, yeah, with 26% of the vote, meaning 74% didn't vote for him. Mayor Pete and Amy won 44% of the vote. I don't get the crowing all the Bernie folks are doing.

Oh yeah, I remember all the yelling at the Clinton delegates at the Travis County Democratic Convention by the Bernie delegates. In my opinion they were/are insufferable if they don't get their way. 

"Bernie wins New Hampshire" BERNIE BROS RIP SHIRT OFF, TELL YOU TO FUCK OFF AND GET IN LINE

Real headline:

"Bernie wins NH, the state that knows him because he lives next door, where he won 60% in 2016, with 25.7% of the vote, a mere 3700 votes ahead of Mayor Pete.  Really means little in the long run" 

Also - 

DYING that "Others" won 36,520 votes (12.4%) - beat out Biden and Liz. 

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Jack

Jack 51

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30 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yes.  The story should be:

Bernie wins NH, as everyone expected
BUT...Pete was very close to an upset (continues to be viable)
AND... Amy's 3rd place finish with 20% of the vote is extremely viable for her

BUT ALSO... Warren and Biden are scuffling badly. 

There will be an opportunity for Warren and Biden to make a comeback but to say this wasn't a disaster for both is an understatement.  Both would need to get some wins before March 3rd to regain some momentum.

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Jack

Jack 51

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5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

In the very online Bernie world, Virgil and the Chapo Trap House dudes are basically gods. 

So cool of them to do this shit. 

 

Say what you will about Virgil, but he's been right about a lot lately.  He's also predicting Warren drops out by the end of the week.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45557

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

I'm pretty sure there is a dick in that pic. Right next to the arm holding the dudes hair.  Can you at least spoiler that shit?

It's apparently from a film called "120 Days of Sodom", based on a book by the Marquis de Sade, so I'm guessing you're right.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20886

Posted
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1 hour ago, Serak The Preparer said:

How do you define Bernie Bro? Is that all Bernie supporters? Either way, how the hell do you figure that "most won't vote for a Democrat"? I would imagine certainly there are some who wouldn't, just as I imagine there are supporters of other candidates who also wouldn't vote for a Democrat, but I keep reading this without understanding the basis for the specific claim about Bernie supporters.

 

Disclaimer: While Bernie is not my first choice candidate, he is my second. My first is Warren, but either way I'm going to vote for the Dem candidate.

I think if you know which animal/emoji to call which non Bernie candidate, you are a Bernie Bro

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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2 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I want to produce a reality show that follows Bernie’s door to door canvassers in sleepy fly over state primaries.

”Oh, you’re supporting Mayor Pete because he reminds you of your grandson, Mrs. Cleaver?  Well, then your grandson must be a bitch.  No, you rot in hell you corporate fascist shit lib!  That’s, right limp back to die alone in your hovel. I hope you break your other hip, too!  I just came here trying to win hearts and minds, trying to help you see the light, but I didn’t realize what a bitch you would be!  [Door slams]. Ok, I think we put her down as leans Bernie, don’t you think?  Nice job.”

lol at you really thinking this is how they're operating, good lord.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Canvassing Reality:

Canvassing According to People Who Have Never Done It And Live Online Specifically To Piss Themselves Off:

4 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I want to produce a reality show that follows Bernie’s door to door canvassers in sleepy fly over state primaries.

”Oh, you’re supporting Mayor Pete because he reminds you of your grandson, Mrs. Cleaver?  Well, then your grandson must be a bitch.  No, you rot in hell you corporate fascist shit lib!  That’s, right limp back to die alone in your hovel. I hope you break your other hip, too!  I just came here trying to win hearts and minds, trying to help you see the light, but I didn’t realize what a bitch you would be!  [Door slams]. Ok, I think we put her down as leans Bernie, don’t you think?  Nice job.”

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Just now, B00M said:

Bro...

It's one of those joke that reveals the internal demons of the joke creator more than poking fun at any noticeable facet of the target. It's like when Stephen Crowder or Ben Shapiro try to tell a joke but the only punchline is how insecure it makes them sound.

So many directions to go that fit.

- Communist
- Autistic
- Smug
- Socially Awkward
- Inflexible

Bros aren't mean to old ladies.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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27 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

lol at you really thinking this is how they're operating, good lord.

Well no, the super obnoxious ones on the internet - there's no chance any of them would have the balls to act a fool like that in real life. They'd get KTFO in a hurry.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
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4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's apparently from a film called "120 Days of Sodom", based on a book by the Marquis de Sade, so I'm guessing you're right.

Salo is how it is best known. I used to have a copy of it but it is too painful to watch a second time.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
Posted

Canvassing in Trump country

"So how many of you voted for Trump? Great. Let's talk about that."

Canvassing older Americans

"I would like to know what you thought of FDR . . . ".

Canvassing white suburban neighborhoods

"Yeah, I know, but 99% of Bernie supporters are just like you and me. MSNBC and CNN tend to overplay sensational news tidbits . . . ".

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14512

Posted
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Hmm

 

I know people like to compare this to Obama in 08 when he was running against the establishment candidate but in his case, he was turnout machine and when they turned out, they voted for him.  Bern couldn't be more well known in NH and the more we learn about the exits, there aren't many good data points in his favor.  

Edited by Aqua Buddha
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