Coronavirus Impact on Travel

[utee94 15811]

1 hour ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yep, and I think economies will rebound fairly quickly.  

There will be a lot of pent-up demand, and global production for all manufactured goods will ramp up quickly.

There are some industries-- like mine-- that are booming right now, BECAUSE of the coronavirus.  The only problem is that there is no buffer in the supply chain any longer.  So it'll go flat for a couple of months, and then recover quickly.

Globally, once the virus runs its course, there are still a large number of factors that support the idea of a quick economic recovery.  The period between now and then, in terms of actual human suffering, is going to suck badly.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

There will be a lot of pent-up demand, and global production for all manufactured goods will ramp up quickly.

There are some industries-- like mine-- that are booming right now, BECAUSE of the coronavirus.  The only problem is that there is no buffer in the supply chain any longer.  So it'll go flat for a couple of months, and then recover quickly.

Globally, once the virus runs its course, there are still a large number of factors that support the idea of a quick economic recovery.  The period between now and then, in terms of actual human suffering, is going to suck badly.

 

That's what I've read, and thought as well. The airlines, tourist industry, cruise lines will all offer big savings for travel. That will spur lots of dollar movement in and of itself.  Filling late orders and catching up all other mfgring, will spur additional demand.

It may suck for a while though, but everyone is in the same boat right now.

[Landomatic 3813]

New York closeting all restaurants, bars, gyms and Movie theaters.

[4th&Five 41525]

i was pretty disappointed driving to work (just me and my wife in the office) and seeing panera, and kerby lane pretty full.  i guess the hospitals will have to fill up before people consider this a risk.

[Brisketexan 105093]

Update from Montreal: my daughter's French friends are starting to head back to France, in anticipation of a border closure.  She has been planning to stay in Montreal for the duration.  We'll talk to her again this afternoon to see if that plan is changing.

If it is, we're going to suggest that she go ahead and take a couple of days to pack up her dorm room and box up everything that needs to go to storage and stay in Montreal.  Then pack her bags to bring home.  And then, to find a way to get her home.  I just looked online, and there are still plenty of flight options to get her home (and lord, they're cheap).  The question is how long they remain options.

I don't want her scrambling and killing herself to leave in 24 hours.  I also don't want her ending up stuck in an immigration line that looks like what we saw from O'Hare this weekend.  So, we'll play it by ear.  And, if air travel is out, there may be other options.  She has a good friend whose home is in Maine.  Maybe he could rent a car, they could drive back there, and she could figure out how to get home from there.  Worst case scenario....one of us has to drive to New England and back to get her.

Sigh.  Fuck.

[Bartles 769]

1 hour ago, Landomatic said:

New York closeting all restaurants, bars, gyms and Movie theaters.

Same with Philly. Restaurants can do take-out and delivery, but I wonder how sustainable that will be other than the small ones that operate that way to begin with

[achooloco 1067]

3 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

When the son calls, and says the Air Force travel ban's lifted (May 11 currently) it'll be getting back to semi normal.

Sure but that call ain’t coming On may 11th. We’ll be knee dip in escalating cases at that point unless we get super lucky. But I hope you’re right and I’m wrong

[utee94 15811]

46 minutes ago, Bartles said:

Same with Philly. Restaurants can do take-out and delivery, but I wonder how sustainable that will be other than the small ones that operate that way to begin with

Probably not very.  Their rents and other fixed costs most likely require their full-scale business model to be in operation.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, achooloco said:

Sure but that call ain’t coming On may 11th. We’ll be knee dip in escalating cases at that point unless we get super lucky. But I hope you’re right and I’m wrong

Oh sure, no way of knowing, but when I saw his number come up on my phone, I had a hunch he was gonna tell me he was grounded in Vegas.  No ski trip and probably  gonna miss our annual fly fishing trip (an excuse to drink lots of bourbon, smoke cigars, and eat lots of meat products).

Edited March 16, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[naija 2854]

Does Cancel For Any Reason insurance still kick in if your airline gives your credit/voucher for the flight?

[twosheds 374]

All passenger air travel in and out of the Cayman Islands will stop Sunday at 11:59pm for three weeks. 

This seems to be in reaction to the UK and the EU, but I could see it lasting much longer.  I love spending Memorial Day week at Coconut Joes on Seven Mile Beach but this year most likely will not happen.

 https://www.caymancompass.com/2020/03/16/cayman-to-shut-down-air-travel-for-3-weeks/

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Update from Montreal: my daughter's French friends are starting to head back to France, in anticipation of a border closure.  She has been planning to stay in Montreal for the duration.  We'll talk to her again this afternoon to see if that plan is changing.

If it is, we're going to suggest that she go ahead and take a couple of days to pack up her dorm room and box up everything that needs to go to storage and stay in Montreal.  Then pack her bags to bring home.  And then, to find a way to get her home.  I just looked online, and there are still plenty of flight options to get her home (and lord, they're cheap).  The question is how long they remain options.

I don't want her scrambling and killing herself to leave in 24 hours.  I also don't want her ending up stuck in an immigration line that looks like what we saw from O'Hare this weekend.  So, we'll play it by ear.  And, if air travel is out, there may be other options.  She has a good friend whose home is in Maine.  Maybe he could rent a car, they could drive back there, and she could figure out how to get home from there.  Worst case scenario....one of us has to drive to New England and back to get her.

Sigh.  Fuck.

It’s a 29 hr drive. Go get her. Driving across the country> stuck at home

[Brisketexan 105093]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

It’s a 29 hr drive. Go get her. Driving across the country> stuck at home

I'm working from home -- making money, because gotta keep the bidness going.

If we have to drive, we will.  But will try to put it off or get her partway here, if possible.  We'll be talking to her tonight about plans.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

It’s a 29 hr drive. Go get her. Driving across the country> stuck at home

Uber for the win !!!!

[CooterBrown 18005]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

She has a good friend whose home is in Maine.  Maybe he could rent a car, they could drive back there...

Nice.  Now that's a long game by the yankee.

[Brisketexan 105093]

4 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Nice.  Now that's a long game by the yankee.

Well, he's super-gay, so....shitty long game.

[CooterBrown 18005]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Well, he's super-gay, so....shitty long game.

Maybe mini-brisket is taking it as a challenge.

 

[Brisketexan 105093]

Just now, CooterBrown said:

Maybe mini-brisket is taking it as a challenge.

 

I mean, "I converted a gay dude" IS strong resume material......

[52-80 19150]

5 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

That's what I've read, and thought as well. The airlines, tourist industry, cruise lines will all offer big savings for travel. That will spur lots of dollar movement in and of itself.  Filling late orders and catching up all other mfgring, will spur additional demand.

It may suck for a while though, but everyone is in the same boat right now.

After layoffs and missed payments and 401k destruction, who has the money or appetite to spend on travel?

[conVINCEd 21469]

38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm working from home -- making money, because gotta keep the bidness going.

If we have to drive, we will.  But will try to put it off or get her partway here, if possible.  We'll be talking to her tonight about plans.

Start doing wills, I see demand skyrocketing there.

[CycleTex87 2967]

12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

After layoffs and missed payments and 401k destruction, who has the money or appetite to spend on travel?

You know, if the government really wants to help, it will reduce the penalties for 401K withdrawals, and allow people to take just ordinary income, or even lower tax rate.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

I have 8 weeks of vacation to use. I'd like to to use half that in France in September if possible. If this thing means i cannot take any, I roll it and have 14 weeks in 2021.

[South Austin 52463]

Starting to wonder how this will affect my Rosemary Beach trip the first week of June.  Will the temporary school closure cause the school year to push into June?  Will domestic air travel be impacted?  If so, I suppose we could drive, but will it be prudent to be around crowds in a beach community? 

A first-world problem, I know.  But still a problem.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

After layoffs and missed payments and 401k destruction, who has the money or appetite to spend on travel?

401K's will rebound.

[Landomatic 3813]

Dallas following New York and Chicago starting tonight at midnight...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-county-update-on-community-gathering-restrictions-expected-monday/2331562/%3famp

[52-80 19150]

29 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

401K's will rebound.

Recoveries take way longer than drops. 

The psychological hit will be even harder.

People who missed 1 vacation, can't just make it up by taking 2.

 

It's going to be hard times ahead.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, 52-80 said:

Recoveries take way longer than drops. 

The psychological hit will be even harder.

People who missed 1 vacation, can't just make it up by taking 2.

 

It's going to be hard times ahead.

I'm gonna disagree. This isn't a normal dip in the economy because of  market factors or oil or war.  The economy was moving along pretty well, and it will recover, it always does.

 

 It will affect folks at the retirement end of their investments, but most folks will recover their account balances in a timely fashion.... or not.

[Horn Draoi 255]

11 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

11 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

In my opinion six to nine months. The social distancing will slow the spread for a few weeks, but then businesses and govt will have to reopen. At that point people will be back out again and the virus will re-ignite until everyone has been touched.

Or, hot weather slows it done, things seem to get back to normal in 3 months, but then goes haywire again in November.

Read more  

We have to hope they fast track a vaccine to be ready to go ASAP. They would be dumb not to. Sounds like a few are already going into human trials. Even if the vaccine is 90% effective, that is better than we are now.

I kinda hate to mention this, but do you realize that our flu vaccines are only about 40-45% effective in good years?  The Coronavirus has already shown rapid mutability; 90% effectiveness may be a dream.  Got my fingers crossed, though!

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

I kinda hate to mention this, but do you realize that our flu vaccines are only about 40-45% effective in good years?  The Coronavirus has already shown rapid mutability; 90% effectiveness may be a dream.  Got my fingers crossed, though!

That is interesting, because everything I have read has said this thing is pretty damned stable.

[The Dog 44020]

[Chopper 17230]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm working from home -- making money, because gotta keep the bidness going.

If we have to drive, we will.  But will try to put it off or get her partway here, if possible.  We'll be talking to her tonight about plans.

You can still fly nonstop from Montreal to Houston or Dallas, no?

[VABuckeye 2472]

I love just north of Dulles airport.  My wife just pointed out to me how quiet it is.  I don’t usually have a constant flow of planes overhead but it sure has diminished considerably. 

[ernest_t_bass 1196]

Fuck Copa airlines.

[rage-a-holic 4382]

AeroMexico won't refund my flights and they don't have dates to reschedule past mid October. Thinking about riding this out in Cozumel and unofficially telecommuting.

Yeah, probably bad idea jeans, but I'd rather be stuck on the beach than in my house for 2 months.

[VABuckeye 2472]

Did you pay or use miles?  I have 300k miles I’m about to try to get back from Aeromexico.  

[tx 3 putt 76901]

7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm working from home -- making money, because gotta keep the bidness going.

If we have to drive, we will.  But will try to put it off or get her partway here, if possible.  We'll be talking to her tonight about plans.

 

just crossover into buffalo and catch a domestic flight ?

[markstanco 12574]

I have 8 weeks of vacation to use. I'd like to to use half that in France in September if possible. If this thing means i cannot take any, I roll it and have 14 weeks in 2021.

That is insane you can roll over that much vacation to 14 weeks in a year.

Are you a govt employee?

In the private sector I will 'buy' an employees week of vacation but not much more. If I had one go on vacation for 3+ months and not effect me they arent really needed in the first place.

[rage-a-holic 4382]

29 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

Did you pay or use miles?  I have 300k miles I’m about to try to get back from Aeromexico.  

Paid. I need to stop drinking because spending the next 3-5 months in Cozumel and using the 2 months of sick time I have stored up is making a lot of sense.

 

just doublechecked and I have 20 fucking weeks of sick time accrued

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by rage-a-holic

[Brisketexan 105093]

 
just crossover into buffalo and catch a domestic flight ?

There’s still several flights from Montreal each day (and some of them are absurdly cheap). It may be coming. She’s cracking under the uncertainty.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

That is insane you can roll over that much vacation to 14 weeks in a year.

Are you a govt employee?

In the private sector I will 'buy' an employees week of vacation but not much more. If I had one go on vacation for 3+ months and not effect me they arent really needed in the first place.

I rolled 2 weeks from last year (that is supposed to be the max roll). I get 6 weeks a year. If this shit goes too long (I'm hoping I can take a nice long trip in September, but who knows) and I cannot take my vacation this year (I had to cancel two weeks in Spain in April, a week in Paria in May so far), then due to these extraordinary circumstances, they will either need to let me roll it or pay me out.

Definitely don't work for the govt.

[Murfdogg21 4412]

19 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Update from Montreal: my daughter's French friends are starting to head back to France, in anticipation of a border closure.  She has been planning to stay in Montreal for the duration.  We'll talk to her again this afternoon to see if that plan is changing.

If it is, we're going to suggest that she go ahead and take a couple of days to pack up her dorm room and box up everything that needs to go to storage and stay in Montreal.  Then pack her bags to bring home.  And then, to find a way to get her home.  I just looked online, and there are still plenty of flight options to get her home (and lord, they're cheap).  The question is how long they remain options.

I don't want her scrambling and killing herself to leave in 24 hours.  I also don't want her ending up stuck in an immigration line that looks like what we saw from O'Hare this weekend.  So, we'll play it by ear.  And, if air travel is out, there may be other options.  She has a good friend whose home is in Maine.  Maybe he could rent a car, they could drive back there, and she could figure out how to get home from there.  Worst case scenario....one of us has to drive to New England and back to get her.

Sigh.  Fuck.

Randy Quaid used to border jump between Quebec and Vermont all the time. Border seems porous. 

[Napoleon 8667]

 

21 hours ago, utee94 said:

There will be a lot of pent-up demand, and global production for all manufactured goods will ramp up quickly.

There are some industries-- like mine-- that are booming right now, BECAUSE of the coronavirus...

Pay-per-view webcam sex?

[Hank_Hill 18802]

Just got my refunds from the lodging and flights I millenially purchased to SD and Denver last week. Thinking about putting it all on nice booze to ride this out with.

[Shaddie 1651]

18 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

Just got my refunds from the lodging and flights I millenially purchased to SD and Denver last week. Thinking about putting it all on nice booze to ride this out with.

That folks is a damn good plan. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

25 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

That folks is a damn good plan. 

When is it not ??

[Mo Horn 8832]

@Brisketexan better get your daughter home now, or she's gonna have to stay. 

[LABEVO 928]

Have a family trip to Switzerland and Germany in May/June. I am now betting this is cancelled. Hope I can get our points back....

[Brisketexan 105093]

[mention=593]Brisketexan[/mention] better get your daughter home now, or she's gonna have to stay. 

We’re monitoring. Fuck.
Plan is for her to come home Monday. We’ll see what the plan looks like. We’re hoping they leaned from the Europe debacle, and will make it clear that citizens can repatriate. Of course, the challenge then may be whether there are any flights. We’ll see what happens. And we’ll figure it out.

[AUS-97HORN 11757]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We’re monitoring. Fuck.
Plan is for her to come home Monday. We’ll see what the plan looks like. We’re hoping they leaned from the Europe debacle, and will make it clear that citizens can repatriate. Of course, the challenge then may be whether there are any flights. We’ll see what happens. And we’ll figure it out.

not trying to be a smartass here man, but Monday is too late.  Trump gave the world 48 hours when he shutdown Europe flights.  assuming 48 hours is the norm and they announce tomorrow..... yeah, Monday isnt gonna work.  

time to have the big girl talk.   either A) she accepts her fate and stays in Canada, possibly for the next 6 months, or B) she has to come home,  (and its entirely possible she cant return to Canada until 2021).... in which case she needs to be on a flight  here no later than Thursday 

shes got to make that decision, but its gotta be done in the next few hours. 

[Brisketexan 105093]

not trying to be a smartass here man, but Monday is too late.  Trump gave the world 48 hours when he shutdown Europe flights.  assuming 48 hours is the norm and they announce tomorrow..... yeah, Monday isnt gonna work.  
time to have the big girl talk.   either A) she accepts her fate and stays in Canada, possibly for the next 6 months, or B) she has to come home,  (and its entirely possible she cant return to Canada until 2021).... in which case she needs to be on a flight  here no later than Thursday 
shes got to make that decision, but its gotta be done in the next few hours. 

I’ve already done a bit of homework on this, and it’s not a unilateral announcement by trump (so, with no thought or planning). It’s a bilateral deal WITH Canada, and it is expected both to have some window of time for rollout as well as significant flexibility. If we need to pull a trigger, we can probably get her home with 24 hours notice, but we’re trying to avoid flipping her the hell out as well. Trying to stay steady and calm. All of us.