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2020 Stl Cardinals thread of....who knows?

pops

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54921

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Consider the team’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP). It sits at .270, the ninth-lowest in baseball. Good things happen when you put the ball in play, as the adage goes, but that hasn’t been the case for St. Louis. Why, you ask? It’s a culmination of things, namely defensive shifts and opposing pitchers pounding the strike zone at above 70 percent, like Washington’s Joe Ross did Wednesday and Philadelphia’s Zach Eflin on Friday. But the Cardinals have also faced some baffling luck. Take a look at four key players in the lineup, for example.

Paul Goldschmidt: Tied with Boston’s Rafael Devers and Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. with the highest average exit velocity at 95.6 miles per hour (minimum 50 plate appearances). His 66.7 hard-hit percentage ranks in the 99th percentile of the league. Yet, he’s hitting just .235 along with a lowly .611 OPS.

DeJong: Ranks 13th with a 16 percent barrel rate and has three home runs. However, DeJong owns a mere .152/.291/.348 clip over 13 games.

Williams: His 18.2 barrel percent is in the 9th percentile of the sport. His 59.1 hard-hit percentage is in the top 9 percent. The result? A .212/.316/.303 line. Turns out, the 25-year-old did have plenty of reason to gripe after his first homer.

Matt Carpenter: Both his 27.8 barrel percent and 66.7 hard-hit percentage rank in the top of the league. His 95.2 mile per hour average exit velocity is in the 95th percentile. And his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .691 sits at the top 8 percent. Still, all Carpenter has to show for that after 26 at-bats are a bunt single to beat the shift and one home run off the right field foul pole.

The proof “is in the process,” as Shildt noted. The Cardinals believe the advancements they’ve made to their offensive game plan will come to fruition soon, based on their evaluations.

“What’s the evaluation? Well, it’s consistency, right?” Shildt said. “If we’re consistently doing something well, then we know we’re on the right track. We’re always looking for continual improvement on what that looks like. If you’re seeing no plan, soft contact, lot of swing-and-miss, then that’s a different story. Then we have to alter what goes on.

“As maddening as it can be, what’s the opposite?” he added. “Going 15th in hard-hit percentage and 20th in exit velocity? Stay with it, keep moving.”

 

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pops

pops 7044

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4 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

I'd feel better if we can keep playing Pittsburgh and Colorado.  Can we make that happen for the next 100 games?

Ha!  No shit. I know Milwaukee is on a slide,  but we are about to find out where the cards really sit in the next 7 days. 

And Edmonds is the absolute worst. The mlb app is so great. I'm kmox probably 95% of the time. I think mclaughlin is actually pretty good, but he can't out run the suck of Jim. 

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Beau Vine

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32 minutes ago, pops said:

Ha!  No shit. I know Milwaukee is on a slide,  but we are about to find out where the cards really sit in the next 7 days. 

And Edmonds is the absolute worst. The mlb app is so great. I'm kmox probably 95% of the time. 

You missed Edmonds today railing about how they can't outlaw the shift.  One of his reasons is that businesses that provide the info to clubs rely on it... "like Microsoft."  

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You don't know me

You don't know me 1161

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Danny Mac is really good.  The broadcast is way better when BT is in the booth with him.  Thompson is funny and he also has very good knowledge of the game and can actually speak to it.

I also heard Edmonds talking about the shift and cringed a bit when his reasoning was "but Microsoft".  That being said, I agree with him about not wanting to ban the shift.  I think the hitters need to adapt, but it's not because there are companies that provide the analytics.  It's because it's baseball.

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1 hour ago, You don't know me said:

Danny Mac is really good.  The broadcast is way better when BT is in the booth with him.  Thompson is funny and he also has very good knowledge of the game and can actually speak to it.

I also heard Edmonds talking about the shift and cringed a bit when his reasoning was "but Microsoft".  That being said, I agree with him about not wanting to ban the shift.  I think the hitters need to adapt, but it's not because there are companies that provide the analytics.  It's because it's baseball.

Banning the shift is retarded. If Matt carpenter is too vain or too dumb to lay down a bunt when the third baseman is on the bag at 2nd then that's his problem. Hit it where they aren't. 

What's next,  banning no doubles d in the outfield?  Banning the double shift?  It's baseball. If you can't figure out how to hit against the shift... if you're that predictable.... well,  that sounds like a you problem. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

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4 hours ago, pops said:

Banning the shift is retarded. If Matt carpenter is too vain or too dumb to lay down a bunt when the third baseman is on the bag at 2nd then that's his problem. Hit it where they aren't. 

What's next,  banning no doubles d in the outfield?  Banning the double shift?  It's baseball. If you can't figure out how to hit against the shift... if you're that predictable.... well,  that sounds like a you problem. 

I don't know why literally everyone who gets the shift against them doesn't do this, but apparently the analytics say you add more value just doing your thing and hitting into the shift... doesn't "feel" right, but apparently the numbers bear it out.

And also - are we good again?

I can't even watch the games this year because stupid fucking Bally Sports and stupid fucking MLB with their stupid fucking blackout rules.

Tulsa is a "local market" of St. Louis apparently, even though it's a 6-hour drive to get there.

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5 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

I don't know why literally everyone who gets the shift against them doesn't do this, but apparently the analytics say you add more value just doing your thing and hitting into the shift... doesn't "feel" right, but apparently the numbers bear it out.

 

Carp is 6 for 53 on the year. And I know at least 1 is a bunt and 3 home runs. If analytics says just keep doing what you're doing then analytics is broken. 

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oSuJeff97

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14 hours ago, pops said:

Carp is 6 for 53 on the year. And I know at least 1 is a bunt and 3 home runs. If analytics says just keep doing what you're doing then analytics is broken. 

Well I'm guessing that one player and 53 at-bats is probably too small of a sample size to test out the analytics, vis a vis bunting to beat the shift.

There are literally millions of dollars at stake for the players and teams involved, so I tend to think that if bunting to beat the shift was a more effective strategy, teams/players would be doing it every time.

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6 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Well I'm guessing that one player and 53 at-bats is probably too small of a sample size to test out the analytics, vis a vis bunting to beat the shift.

There are literally millions of dollars at stake for the players and teams involved, so I tend to think that if bunting to beat the shift was a more effective strategy, teams/players would be doing it every time.

You're right. I'm taking a micro sample but it just doesn't make sense to my small brain. Maybe it works from a defensive standpoint as well...if carp, or anyone else wants to bunt for singles then they will give those to him as opposed to extra bases or HR. 

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oSuJeff97

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16 hours ago, pops said:

You're right. I'm taking a micro sample but it just doesn't make sense to my small brain. Maybe it works from a defensive standpoint as well...if carp, or anyone else wants to bunt for singles then they will give those to him as opposed to extra bases or HR. 

Honestly it doesn't make sense to me either.

I just can't see how taking an easy baserunner isn't better than taking whatever low % chance you have for extra bases by hitting into the shift, but it seems like it's one of those counter-intuitive things about probability and risk when you're dealing with a huge sample size.

But they have like dudes with PhDs in economics and data analysis figuring this shit out so I guess it works, lol?

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54921

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47 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Honestly it doesn't make sense to me either.

I just can't see how taking an easy baserunner isn't better than taking whatever low % chance you have for extra bases by hitting into the shift, but it seems like it's one of those counter-intuitive things about probability and risk when you're dealing with a huge sample size.

But they have like dudes with PhDs in economics and data analysis figuring this shit out so I guess it works, lol?

Your first mistake is assuming that Carpenter is easily going to get a bunt down.

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You don't know me

You don't know me 1161

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WTF was Shildt thinking last night when he sent Yadi out to second base in the top of the 10th?  Fairly softly hit ball allowed Yadi to move to third, but if that had been a single to the outfield there is no way that Yadi scores.  I was confused on that one.  I was actually thinking that he would have sent Knizner out to second.  Not ideal, but way better than Yadi and you don't lose another bench player by using a different runner.  Anyway, I thought Shildt made a mistake there.  Luckily they won anyway, but that could have been one of those head scratchers that you have to answer for after the game.

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Beau Vine

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52 minutes ago, You don't know me said:

WTF was Shildt thinking last night when he sent Yadi out to second base in the top of the 10th?  Fairly softly hit ball allowed Yadi to move to third, but if that had been a single to the outfield there is no way that Yadi scores.  I was confused on that one.  I was actually thinking that he would have sent Knizner out to second.  Not ideal, but way better than Yadi and you don't lose another bench player by using a different runner.  Anyway, I thought Shildt made a mistake there.  Luckily they won anyway, but that could have been one of those head scratchers that you have to answer for after the game.

And then he pinch-hit Williams instead of Knizner.

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9 minutes ago, You don't know me said:

Looking like shit this weekend. And TON is not a gold glove caliber player. At every age you are taught that your first step is back in the outfield, yet he breaks in and the ball goes over his head.

Bad series. But I mean he literally won a gold glove. So much prefer him to fowler on what he can bring at the plate and on the bases.

Walks are killing us. Lineup is stacked,  but pitching is just so inconsistent. Rinse and repeat for the past decade. 

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