The New Car Fanatic Thread

[Okie State 3732]

Well, the end links didn't fix my problem. Changed them out for some more generic ones and that didn't fix the problem. Now I'm changing bushings. Hope I can get all this shit back together.

[Handcruser 2805]

Got real tired of 9mpg driving to Westlake every day. So here I am, again, in a Passat.

My second one. I use to get about 45mpg on the hwy even though it was only rated for 38.

For 27k, hard to beat.

Oh, and I sold my 2020 Ram 4x4 ORP for more than I bought it for last year. Good times.

[Prepuce of Doom 20948]

Got an Outback XT for a loaner while Mrs. Doom's Forester XT gets its 60k maintenance.

Doesn't know what it's doing between 80 and 105 (didn't flog it harder than that - no radar detector, etc.), occasionally feels like tramlining at highway speeds even on smooth asphalt, tires/suspension felt worried and nervous while pushing hard around an on/off ramp cloverleaf, but a nice (too nice for my liking...) smooth ride over bumps and potholes, but at the obvious and substantial expense of handling precision and communication.

Would be an adequate but not gratifying vehicle, but the market for sporty wagons is pretty paltry right now. Despite being a long time Subaru owner, I would definitely cross shop if I was in the market (don't think anything under $50k would satisfy my speed/handling/sleeper/practicality/reliability preferences, though I'd look at a Golf R, Volvo, and the MB/Audi/BMW offerings), though my plan is still to eventually get a used AMG wagon and then transition my LGT to outdoor living and year-round driving, and let my OB 3.0 go for whatever I can get for it. Might end up lifting my LGT at that point in time, as the current suspension is very low, tight, and punishing. 

Took some pictures to illustrate model bloat over the years and figured I'd share. 

2021 Outback XT vs 2004 OB 3.0 VDC winter beater 

Edited June 5, 2021 by Prepuce of Doom

[Prepuce of Doom 20948]

2021 Outback XT vs 2007 Legacy GT wagon (modified) 

Note: the stock ground clearance for the 2007 LGT wagon was 6.1" vs. 8.4" for a stock OBXT. Mine is lowered about 2" from stock. 

 

 

Edited June 5, 2021 by Prepuce of Doom

[Buzzrock 14790]

Does this count as a new car?

[LebongJames 1773]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

Does this count as a new car?

I have been looking at golf carts and they cost almost double what my first car cost so yeah I say this counts.

[Okie State 3732]

Damn the title of this thread.

[Armybrat 40608]

[Armybrat 40608]

Posted this one In the divorce thread....
 

 

 

[immamac 42286]

1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

That is badass. 

[choripan 790]

$0.02/TLDR: Maverick has a use case for urban-dwellers who want a truck for basic hauling/VERY light towing.

I do a lot of work renovating our (old) houses before we sell, and want a truck bed for dump trips and other activities that beat the shit out of the truck bed. I've usually lived in east coast/midwest cities that were built up a long time ago for America. It's common for street parking to be a battle to the death, so we typically try to have a garage. Many/most garages from pre-1910 or so are 20x20 or 20x10, were often used for horsed (rather than horseless) carriages, and can't fit a vehicle much larger than 200" once you account for the garage's framing and garage door(s).

In our last house, I was able to extend the garage about 2 feet to the property line (alley access), so I bought a newer GMC Canyon and had room for four. In our current house, I have about 209" of space and bought a 2017 GMC Sierra Rrgular Cab Short Bed (205.6"!) and it's basically going full-on mechanical centipede with my garage door and wall.

Oh, and GM quit making Reg Cab short beds except in Mexico/overseas, Ford's is too long because of that notch behind the seats, and Ram only sells the janky Ram "Classic," so it's used for me if I want full-size, and impossible for mid-size because none of them are <205" or so, even the Ridgeline.

If the Maverick has decent payload and a bed where I can strap down 8' or 10' lumber just fine, I'd be all about it even if it's not body-on-frame. The XJ Cherokee was fine as a unibody and the warrantied stats for the Ridgeline are fine, so I'm hopeful it doesn't just turn out like a Subaru Baja or El Camino, but more like a smaller version of the new Ridgeline.

Gotta be more people like me out there who want it for a use case like mine, or even just to be easier to parallel park, if the general trend toward urbanization I've been reading about is even half true.

[fattyflattie 4633]

@choripan  very interesting. Also, I think it’s be kick ass if he was like an El Camino (it wont).   Not a car, a lifestyle.  
 

When you say GM quit making reg can short bed, you mean the 6.5’? If so, that’s insane. I still have the single cab/sb V8 4x4 I bought new senior yr if high school over 20 years ago tucked away in the barn. 

[choripan 790]

59 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

@choripan  When you say GM quit making reg can short bed, you mean the 6.5’? 

Yep. Last time you could get one from GM in the US was 2018. Dodge only sells their "Classic" Ram in RCSB, not the newer nicer Rams, and that's 209" anyway. Similarly, RCSB F-150 is 209"+ as well. Current Ranger, Colorado/Canyon, Taco, and Ridgeline don't offer a regular cab and they're all around 211". I beat this whole thing to death researching it and found my only option was just going used full-size RCSB in order to fit something in my garage. 

Funny thing I remember seeing a while back... Someone wanted a new GMC so badly they chopped a new one up: https://www.motorbiscuit.com/gm-wont-make-2020-short-bed-regular-cabs-so-this-guy-made-one/.

 

 

[Buzzrock 14790]

I have been looking at golf carts and they cost almost double what my first car cost so yeah I say this counts.

Now that you mention it, that’s almost exactly what I paid (2X).

[Sandman 3399]

My wife likes to buy shit at Lowe's but hates driving my F-150 because it's size makes it hard for her to drive and park. I'm sure she's not the only one that feels that way. There's probably a lot of women that would find the Maverick appealing, and I don't mean that as an insult to any guys that would buy one. I'm way too tall for a midsize or below but I'd give it a hard look if I could fit comfortably inside. I'm seeing $26k for a loaded XLT, that's not bad.

[Austinvines 309]

I’m looking for an suv/wagon that has/will accept a 2” hitch rack. Only other requirements is ventilated seats and a decent adaptive cruise control with lane keeping assist being a super plus. Go!

[immamac 42286]

telluride/palisade/gv80 

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

2 hours ago, Austinvines said:

I’m looking for an suv/wagon that has/will accept a 2” hitch rack. Only other requirements is ventilated seats and a decent adaptive cruise control with lane keeping assist being a super plus. Go!

Pretty much anything bigger than a compact size crossover/wagon you can get an aftermarket hitch installed.
figure out what you really want, then go to etrailer.com and check out the choices.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26114]

12 hours ago, immamac said:

telluride/palisade/gv80 

This is the answer

[smuggs 9318]

Maverick XLT (hybrid is standard config) with the Lux pack gives you power everything, heated seats, adaptive cruise, inverter in bed, spray in liner, trailer hitch and remote start. 40mpg city driving. MSRP $26,125. That’s pretty fucking awesome.

[BottleRocket 644]

With new and used car and truck prices being 10-20% higher than last year due to supply chain disruptions do any of you think pricing will come back down and if so, when? I’ve been in the market for a year and regret not pulling the trigger. Or should I buy now in anticipation that prices will just continue to rise? I can wait another year but I’m not sure things will improve.

[Thatguy 8261]

On 6/5/2021 at 12:50 PM, Prepuce of Doom said:

Got an Outback XT for a loaner while Mrs. Doom's Forester XT gets its 60k maintenance.

Doesn't know what it's doing between 80 and 105 (didn't flog it harder than that - no radar detector, etc.), occasionally feels like tramlining at highway speeds even on smooth asphalt, tires/suspension felt worried and nervous while pushing hard around an on/off ramp cloverleaf, but a nice (too nice for my liking...) smooth ride over bumps and potholes, but at the obvious and substantial expense of handling precision and communication.

Would be an adequate but not gratifying vehicle, but the market for sporty wagons is pretty paltry right now. Despite being a long time Subaru owner, I would definitely cross shop if I was in the market (don't think anything under $50k would satisfy my speed/handling/sleeper/practicality/reliability preferences, though I'd look at a Golf R, Volvo, and the MB/Audi/BMW offerings), though my plan is still to eventually get a used AMG wagon and then transition my LGT to outdoor living and year-round driving, and let my OB 3.0 go for whatever I can get for it. Might end up lifting my LGT at that point in time, as the current suspension is very low, tight, and punishing. 

Took some pictures to illustrate model bloat over the years and figured I'd share. 

2021 Outback XT vs 2004 OB 3.0 VDC winter beater 

 

Is it wrong that I would drive by that house and assume a couple lesbians live there?

Edited June 9, 2021 by Thatguy

[Prepuce of Doom 20948]

Meh. 

[elfenix 34149]

On 6/8/2021 at 12:52 PM, Sandman said:

My wife likes to buy shit at Lowe's but hates driving my F-150 because it's size makes it hard for her to drive and park. I'm sure she's not the only one that feels that way. There's probably a lot of women that would find the Maverick appealing, and I don't mean that as an insult to any guys that would buy one. I'm way too tall for a midsize or below but I'd give it a hard look if I could fit comfortably inside. I'm seeing $26k for a loaded XLT, that's not bad.

bronco sport has more headroom than an F150, and i'd guess this is the same. 

[Gravy Train 970]

10 hours ago, Thatguy said:

 

Is it wrong that I would drive by that house and assume a couple lesbians live there?

Go on....

 

...beyond the collection of head gaskets and transmission synchro sets in the garage and Melissa Etheridge Radio on repeat in the Living Room

[Prepuce of Doom 20948]

40 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Go on....

 

...beyond the collection of head gaskets and transmission synchro sets in the garage and Melissa Etheridge Radio on repeat in the Living Room

The 3.0 is pretty much bulletproof. 

The LGT is on its second short block... 

[LebongJames 1773]

18 hours ago, BottleRocket said:

With new and used car and truck prices being 10-20% higher than last year due to supply chain disruptions do any of you think pricing will come back down and if so, when? I’ve been in the market for a year and regret not pulling the trigger. Or should I buy now in anticipation that prices will just continue to rise? I can wait another year but I’m not sure things will improve.

Honestly idk but my opinion is higher prices are here to stay. The MSRP on vehicles has increased more rapidly than in previous years but probably not at this premium. There was an interview with the CEO of GM and this has shown the light on that they don’t have to build cheap cars. They like the profit they are making on fewer more expensive trucks and SUVs. They also are loving the demand and not having to carry so much inventory. It will ruin the car dealer industry if there are not 1000 F150s in Austin in stock to look at though.

[TwiceHorn 30925]

2 hours ago, LebongJames said:

Honestly idk but my opinion is higher prices are here to stay. The MSRP on vehicles has increased more rapidly than in previous years but probably not at this premium. There was an interview with the CEO of GM and this has shown the light on that they don’t have to build cheap cars. They like the profit they are making on fewer more expensive trucks and SUVs. They also are loving the demand and not having to carry so much inventory. It will ruin the car dealer industry if there are not 1000 F150s in Austin in stock to look at though.

There has been an article or two indicating that automakers have learned that reduced production and inventory means fewer rebates and factory deals, and apparently sustains similar profit levels to earlier practices.

But, I think there were also some weird dynamics on the consumer end, too, with people with stimulus money and whatnot.  So that may change.

Edited June 10, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[Okie State 3732]

I don't see how current pricing for cars or houses is sustainable in the long run. At some point something has to give.

[Goofyboy 3062]

I don't see how current pricing for cars or houses is sustainable in the long run. At some point something has to give.

It will stop when banks stop 7 or 8 year loans at 2%.

[LebongJames 1773]

43 minutes ago, Okie State said:

I don't see how current pricing for cars or houses is sustainable in the long run. At some point something has to give.

Ya but how long is the run way. If it continues for another year, how far does everything retreat? 

[Prepuce of Doom 20948]

Lots of interesting insights about the future of pricing with an emphasis on the used car market. 

 

 

[Okie State 3732]

When the fuck is this microchip shortage going to end? My brother delivers new cars to dealerships for a living and is about to be out of a job. Just amazing the ripple effects all of this has had.

[Prepuce of Doom 20948]

2 minutes ago, Okie State said:

When the fuck is this microchip shortage going to end? My brother delivers new cars to dealerships for a living and is about to be out of a job. Just amazing the ripple effects all of this has had.

My wholly uninformed assumption (i.e., I have no specific knowledge or insight much beyond what we've all superficially discussed here) is that it will probably never truly/totally end. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by Prepuce of Doom

[Mr. Drummond 2173]

Have been in the PCBa business for 30 years, including owning my own contract manufacture shop with 4 SMT lines, 40 employees etc for the last 15. This is the worst it has ever been.   At least weekly we are being given lead times to common items of sometime in 2023.

I'll give some facts and some educated speculation.

Facts: Covid shut down or reduced factory output, way more demand sooner than anyone thought, takes 4-6 months to get wafer fabs back up and going at full speed, 1/2 the number of boats (remember a typical IC could have the wafer made in Taiwan, assembled in vietnam, tested back in Taiwan, and final assembly in Philippines ) so 1/2 the number of boat hurts that back and forth of product , 2x the number of people working from home needing network equipment.    Thats all pretty obvious and we would come out of that situation fairly quickly.   But places like Malaysia being shut down for 2 weeks in june for covid and a civil war in Myanmar (where Panasonic makes all their sensors - ask me how i know) doesn't help.

 

Speculation:  The big guys chip makers,   NXP, TI, On Semi, ST MIcro, etc etc all collectively decided we are getting our profit back, so they look at their line card and decide which items are profitable and which items aren't, they use covid as an excuse to make the profitable stuff put it on allocation which allows them to pick where to ship product to, and the rest of the little stuff gets blown off (thus some of the 2023 lead time).  Now, you know who isn't getting allocated product first, the ass hole giant OEMs that haven't' allowed anyone (CMs, distributors or manufacturers) to make any money and push all obligation down to the little guy.    Talking to a VP of a worlds top 3 electronics distributor that has Detroit as his area, ford and GM both cancelled orders and returned product to everyone at the beginning of covid making the little guys eat it.      Shoe is on the other foot now, and everyone is taking their revenge.    They are giving (lets use ford) Ford just enough of their product that they don't force them to redesign, which ford doesn't' want to do, but they are making them pay higher prices and making them wait.    I buy 125,000 pieces of a micro controller a month for my largest customer and place them on boards.   When covid hit, we didn't cancel anything, we worked with the manufacturer, the distributor and we slowed it down and slowly slid into the curb.    It is appreciated, and my customer hasn't missed one shipment of the controller now that its ramped back up.  Anyone else in the world is being told 60 week lead time, the manufacturer is picking us to ship to.     Will the big OEMS learn?  They will pay lip service to it (have seen some articles saying "maybe we shouldn't be such dicks" , but nah, they wont.

When will it end - It will get slowly better (i have already seen some signs) for the next few months, then all at once everyone will realize they over compensated for the shortages and will start cancelling orders, then within a month most of it will be fixed.     My guess is Feb 2022.

 

TL:DR - Next summer cars will be back to normal.  

[Okie State 3732]

Of course we have someone on Surly with specific knowledge of the situation. Thanks for the info.

[mdleast 8126]

I've been following along with this thread and also cursing my timing as I am in the market for a new vehicle (almost certainly an SVU) after having driven my Chevy Tahoe into the ground over the last 16+ years.  I was getting ready to pull the trigger on finally buying something new early this summer but now am dealing with this chip shortage and resulting higher prices which will make it tough for me to stomach the idea of having to "buy high" (and that's in addition to the sticker shock of not having bought a new vehicle in a long time...wife's Volvo XC90 is 13.5 years old and will also need to be replaced at some point here relatively soon).  Will definitely be interested if anyone "in the know" ends up with a more definitive/consensus thought on how long this will cause prices to spike.

 

Also, in terms of potential SUVs, I'm finding that I'm leaning towards getting a more "fun" SUV (and my wife's next SUV can be the "nicer" family vehicle).  Any thoughts/comparative opinions of:

 

-new Ford Bronco (once actually available)

-Land Rover Defender

-Jeep Wrangler with Sky One-Touch Power Roof

-Similar SUVs of this ilk?

Thanks

[fattyflattie 4633]

6 hours ago, Okie State said:

I don't see how current pricing for cars or houses is sustainable in the long run. At some point something has to give.

Keep in mind this is Houston ex-urbs, not Austin, but neighbor just sold his house yesterday, in less than 24 hours, for about 175k more than he failed to sell it for 18 months or so ago.  Increased over 100% from when he bought it 5 years ago.  Stupid crazy times we are living in. This was the smallest, plainest house on the street.  Waiting for FBCAD to ruin my shit. 

[Okie State 3732]

Keep in mind this is Houston ex-urbs, not Austin, but neighbor just sold his house yesterday, in less than 24 hours, for about 175k more than he failed to sell it for 18 months or so ago.  Increased over 100% from when he bought it 5 years ago.  Stupid crazy times we are living in. This was the smallest, plainest house on the street.  Waiting for FBCAD to ruin my shit. 

Yeah we live in the Houston burbs and had already planned to upgrade in the next couple of years. We've been looking just to see if something happens to catch our eye, but it's a waste of time. Stupid prices on not very nice houses offsets any gain I'd get on my house. That's assuming we could even win a bid which doesn't seem likely.

[fattyflattie 4633]

Just now, Okie State said:

6 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Keep in mind this is Houston ex-urbs, not Austin, but neighbor just sold his house yesterday, in less than 24 hours, for about 175k more than he failed to sell it for 18 months or so ago.  Increased over 100% from when he bought it 5 years ago.  Stupid crazy times we are living in. This was the smallest, plainest house on the street.  Waiting for FBCAD to ruin my shit. 

Yeah we live in the Houston burbs and had already planned to upgrade in the next couple of years. We've been looking just to see if something happens to catch our eye, but it's a waste of time. Stupid prices on not very nice houses offsets any gain I'd get on my house. That's assuming we could even win a bid which doesn't seem likely.

He said he didn't get any "100k over" type offers ala Austin, but he listed it a bit high and someone bit immediately.  Demobed wife not long ago, no kids.  Moving into pussyville and renting an apartment hoping this will settle in next 24 months or so.  Fucker.  

[Da Fino 2710]

6 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

He said he didn't get any "100k over" type offers ala Austin, but he listed it a bit high and someone bit immediately.  Demobed wife not long ago, no kids.  Moving into pussyville and renting an apartment hoping this will settle in next 24 months or so.  Fucker.  

We have been watching the un-updated stuff around us go for prices we can't believe.  Same day offers above asking price, people writing letters on why they should win the bid, insanity. We are very seriously considering selling our house and getting back in an apt for a year or two. I feel like I'm holding a golden ticket with a house zoned to Memorial HS.  

[Lhorn 4863]

Man when this bubble pops it’s going to be ugly. I really know very little about real estate but can’t see how current pricing is sustainable.  I don't see how a shit ton of people aren’t going to be tremendously under water on their mortgages soon. 

[ChickenSandwich 9772]

1 hour ago, Lhorn said:

Man when this bubble pops it’s going to be ugly. I really know very little about real estate but can’t see how current pricing is sustainable.  I don't see how a shit ton of people aren’t going to be tremendously under water on their mortgages soon. 

Depends on the area. Even the shit show in 2007 saw year over year price increases in Travis County. It slowed but never decreased or failed to increase. 

[LebongJames 1773]

3 hours ago, Lhorn said:

Man when this bubble pops it’s going to be ugly. I really know very little about real estate but can’t see how current pricing is sustainable.  I don't see how a shit ton of people aren’t going to be tremendously under water on their mortgages soon. 

I don’t want to be a complete optimist / Emu but I really don’t think this a bubble just a correction for Texas with having extremely cheap homes compared to other parts of the country with similar economies.

[LebongJames 1773]

Sorry to derail.  Anyone else extremely interested in the Rivian R1T or R1S?

[Horns99 155]

We have been watching the un-updated stuff around us go for prices we can't believe.  Same day offers above asking price, people writing letters on why they should win the bid, insanity. We are very seriously considering selling our house and getting back in an apt for a year or two. I feel like I'm holding a golden ticket with a house zoned to Memorial HS.  

Yes you are ….


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Atxracer 797]

1 hour ago, LebongJames said:

I don’t want to be a complete optimist / Emu but I really don’t think this a bubble just a correction for Texas with having extremely cheap homes compared to other parts of the country with similar economies.

I’m not saying you’re wrong but I hope you are.  At this rate, owning a home is going back to the “American Dream” rather than the “American norm.”   
 

[Sam Lin 3538]

10 hours ago, Mr. Drummond said:

Have been in the PCBa business for 30 years, including owning my own contract manufacture shop with 4 SMT lines, 40 employees etc for the last 15. This is the worst it has ever been.   At least weekly we are being given lead times to common items of sometime in 2023.

I'll give some facts and some educated speculation.

Facts: Covid shut down or reduced factory output, way more demand sooner than anyone thought, takes 4-6 months to get wafer fabs back up and going at full speed, 1/2 the number of boats (remember a typical IC could have the wafer made in Taiwan, assembled in vietnam, tested back in Taiwan, and final assembly in Philippines ) so 1/2 the number of boat hurts that back and forth of product , 2x the number of people working from home needing network equipment.    Thats all pretty obvious and we would come out of that situation fairly quickly.   But places like Malaysia being shut down for 2 weeks in june for covid and a civil war in Myanmar (where Panasonic makes all their sensors - ask me how i know) doesn't help.

 

Speculation:  The big guys chip makers,   NXP, TI, On Semi, ST MIcro, etc etc all collectively decided we are getting our profit back, so they look at their line card and decide which items are profitable and which items aren't, they use covid as an excuse to make the profitable stuff put it on allocation which allows them to pick where to ship product to, and the rest of the little stuff gets blown off (thus some of the 2023 lead time).  Now, you know who isn't getting allocated product first, the ass hole giant OEMs that haven't' allowed anyone (CMs, distributors or manufacturers) to make any money and push all obligation down to the little guy.    Talking to a VP of a worlds top 3 electronics distributor that has Detroit as his area, ford and GM both cancelled orders and returned product to everyone at the beginning of covid making the little guys eat it.      Shoe is on the other foot now, and everyone is taking their revenge.    They are giving (lets use ford) Ford just enough of their product that they don't force them to redesign, which ford doesn't' want to do, but they are making them pay higher prices and making them wait.    I buy 125,000 pieces of a micro controller a month for my largest customer and place them on boards.   When covid hit, we didn't cancel anything, we worked with the manufacturer, the distributor and we slowed it down and slowly slid into the curb.    It is appreciated, and my customer hasn't missed one shipment of the controller now that its ramped back up.  Anyone else in the world is being told 60 week lead time, the manufacturer is picking us to ship to.     Will the big OEMS learn?  They will pay lip service to it (have seen some articles saying "maybe we shouldn't be such dicks" , but nah, they wont.

When will it end - It will get slowly better (i have already seen some signs) for the next few months, then all at once everyone will realize they over compensated for the shortages and will start cancelling orders, then within a month most of it will be fixed.     My guess is Feb 2022.

 

TL:DR - Next summer cars will be back to normal.  

This is a solid post. The automakers are really used to being king of the hill and making their suppliers and subsuppliers whipsaw at their whim. For the chip foundries, automaker orders are tiny in quantity and are for outdated ancient product that carries shit profit margins. The foundries are very happy to put the automakers in the queue with all the other customers, and will be in no particular hurry to help the automakers out.

[Native Horn 3467]

17 hours ago, Mr. Drummond said:

Have been in the PCBa business for 30 years, including owning my own contract manufacture shop with 4 SMT lines, 40 employees etc for the last 15. This is the worst it has ever been.   At least weekly we are being given lead times to common items of sometime in 2023.

I'll give some facts and some educated speculation.

Facts: Covid shut down or reduced factory output, way more demand sooner than anyone thought, takes 4-6 months to get wafer fabs back up and going at full speed, 1/2 the number of boats (remember a typical IC could have the wafer made in Taiwan, assembled in vietnam, tested back in Taiwan, and final assembly in Philippines ) so 1/2 the number of boat hurts that back and forth of product , 2x the number of people working from home needing network equipment.    Thats all pretty obvious and we would come out of that situation fairly quickly.   But places like Malaysia being shut down for 2 weeks in june for covid and a civil war in Myanmar (where Panasonic makes all their sensors - ask me how i know) doesn't help.

 

Speculation:  The big guys chip makers,   NXP, TI, On Semi, ST MIcro, etc etc all collectively decided we are getting our profit back, so they look at their line card and decide which items are profitable and which items aren't, they use covid as an excuse to make the profitable stuff put it on allocation which allows them to pick where to ship product to, and the rest of the little stuff gets blown off (thus some of the 2023 lead time).  Now, you know who isn't getting allocated product first, the ass hole giant OEMs that haven't' allowed anyone (CMs, distributors or manufacturers) to make any money and push all obligation down to the little guy.    Talking to a VP of a worlds top 3 electronics distributor that has Detroit as his area, ford and GM both cancelled orders and returned product to everyone at the beginning of covid making the little guys eat it.      Shoe is on the other foot now, and everyone is taking their revenge.    They are giving (lets use ford) Ford just enough of their product that they don't force them to redesign, which ford doesn't' want to do, but they are making them pay higher prices and making them wait.    I buy 125,000 pieces of a micro controller a month for my largest customer and place them on boards.   When covid hit, we didn't cancel anything, we worked with the manufacturer, the distributor and we slowed it down and slowly slid into the curb.    It is appreciated, and my customer hasn't missed one shipment of the controller now that its ramped back up.  Anyone else in the world is being told 60 week lead time, the manufacturer is picking us to ship to.     Will the big OEMS learn?  They will pay lip service to it (have seen some articles saying "maybe we shouldn't be such dicks" , but nah, they wont.

When will it end - It will get slowly better (i have already seen some signs) for the next few months, then all at once everyone will realize they over compensated for the shortages and will start cancelling orders, then within a month most of it will be fixed.     My guess is Feb 2022.

 

TL:DR - Next summer cars will be back to normal.  

Whachu talkin' bout, Willis?

Nice insight, thanks for educating us.  Like someone said above, the diverse experts on Surly make this a badass place.

[Armybrat 40608]

20 hours ago, Mr. Drummond said:

Have been in the PCBa business for 30 years, including owning my own contract manufacture shop with 4 SMT lines, 40 employees etc for the last 15. This is the worst it has ever been.   At least weekly we are being given lead times to common items of sometime in 2023.

I'll give some facts and some educated speculation.

Facts: Covid shut down or reduced factory output, way more demand sooner than anyone thought, takes 4-6 months to get wafer fabs back up and going at full speed, 1/2 the number of boats (remember a typical IC could have the wafer made in Taiwan, assembled in vietnam, tested back in Taiwan, and final assembly in Philippines ) so 1/2 the number of boat hurts that back and forth of product , 2x the number of people working from home needing network equipment.    Thats all pretty obvious and we would come out of that situation fairly quickly.   But places like Malaysia being shut down for 2 weeks in june for covid and a civil war in Myanmar (where Panasonic makes all their sensors - ask me how i know) doesn't help.

 

Speculation:  The big guys chip makers,   NXP, TI, On Semi, ST MIcro, etc etc all collectively decided we are getting our profit back, so they look at their line card and decide which items are profitable and which items aren't, they use covid as an excuse to make the profitable stuff put it on allocation which allows them to pick where to ship product to, and the rest of the little stuff gets blown off (thus some of the 2023 lead time).  Now, you know who isn't getting allocated product first, the ass hole giant OEMs that haven't' allowed anyone (CMs, distributors or manufacturers) to make any money and push all obligation down to the little guy.    Talking to a VP of a worlds top 3 electronics distributor that has Detroit as his area, ford and GM both cancelled orders and returned product to everyone at the beginning of covid making the little guys eat it.      Shoe is on the other foot now, and everyone is taking their revenge.    They are giving (lets use ford) Ford just enough of their product that they don't force them to redesign, which ford doesn't' want to do, but they are making them pay higher prices and making them wait.    I buy 125,000 pieces of a micro controller a month for my largest customer and place them on boards.   When covid hit, we didn't cancel anything, we worked with the manufacturer, the distributor and we slowed it down and slowly slid into the curb.    It is appreciated, and my customer hasn't missed one shipment of the controller now that its ramped back up.  Anyone else in the world is being told 60 week lead time, the manufacturer is picking us to ship to.     Will the big OEMS learn?  They will pay lip service to it (have seen some articles saying "maybe we shouldn't be such dicks" , but nah, they wont.

When will it end - It will get slowly better (i have already seen some signs) for the next few months, then all at once everyone will realize they over compensated for the shortages and will start cancelling orders, then within a month most of it will be fixed.     My guess is Feb 2022.

 

TL:DR - Next summer cars will be back to normal.  

Very similar to the ammo shortage/manufacturing