Surly #Stonks

[Trey3216 15325]

Just now, gsoda3 said:

the $800 call is at $2 x $2.05 right now.  so whomever bought at $4.95 is down almost $3 per share.  also each contract is for 100 shares.  so if you're buying 1 contract it's not just $4.95, it's $4.95 * 100 shares.  

So you see where in my post you quoted where I said “you’d have to fork over $495.....etc, etc, etc”???

[gsoda3 3234]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

So you see where in my post you quoted where I said “you’d have to fork over $495.....etc, etc, etc”???

i thought i quoted whomever was asking for an explanation of the contract prices.

[Trey3216 15325]

6 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

i thought i quoted whomever was asking for an explanation of the contract prices.

Ain’t no thing 

[cam4mav 770]

13 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

i thought i quoted whomever was asking for an explanation of the contract prices.

 

7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Ain’t no thing 

[52-80 19076]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

15000+ calls traded on the GME 2/5 $800 strike traded today.  Good Lord folks.

it costs $100 for a long while during the morning sell off, jumped up to $900 in the couple of noon time rallies.

good stuff

[cam4mav 770]

AZRX

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/azrx/

buddy just recommended this. I don't know anything about it, pharma something drug trial. Will it goo brrrrr 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-strong-buy-penny-stocks-153448116.html

[DonkeyCigars 144]

WSB seems a little more muted, other than the occasional older meme and eating some of their own for paper hands'ing.

[cam4mav 770]

What's good with ALPP?

Quick search seems like y'all have been on that train for a while. Is there room to jump on?

[52-80 19076]

1 hour ago, cam4mav said:

what does that mean. calls/puts still confuse me the money for contracts doesn't mean anything in my head.

 

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

It means that there were 15000 contracts sold (last time I looked) on people betting that GME either will or won't get to 800 by friday (someone has to sell them in order for another to buy them)...

...1 contract that entitles you to buy 100 shares of Gamestop at $800 by THIS FRIDAY.  

 

Just expanding a bit from the last post, it's better to think of a call/put contract just like a stock.  It is a freely traded instrument like a stock, but with tons of leverage built in.  (The big appeal of Robinhood is they turned this previously exotic derivative instrument into something regular people now trade.)

 

For practical understanding, ignore the legal obligation part of the contract.  Many (most?) traders don't see to the end state of a contract.  They buy or sell contracts based on their directional assumptions, and then flip the contract, thereby absolving them of any right or obligation.

 

For example, the Friday 800C contract has a leverage (Delta value) of ~15:1.  Every dollar the stock moves, the value of the contract changes by $15.  This is why when the stock was 90$, the contract cost $100, and when the stock rallied up to $140, the contract was worth 850$  (15*(140-90)). 

 

When the stock was $90 today, you didn't need to believe the stock would end up >$800 by the end of the week.  You just need it to move up by ANY amount, that you would profit.

 

There is a lot that could be assumed based on  trading volume and open interest of options contracts, and what it says  about what the market thinks the stock will do (in fact it implies the expected volatility).  So what Trey said is right.  But on a practical terms, lots of it is just short-term speculating.

 

[Harrison Stafford 3325]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Solid call on this one.  I sold for a tidy 50 percent profit and bought uuuu and amyzf instead.  

A good move as, at this point, there’s more % upside on UUUU and AMYZF.  Still holding all three stocks and looking for a dip to add to the UUUU position.  Glad you made money.

[52-80 19076]

by the way picked up a bunch of BB 12Ps

AMC was too expensive and i think BB has more room to fall, since AMC already did bigly at market open

[gsoda3 3234]

23 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

When the stock was $90 today, you didn't need to believe the stock would end up >$800 by the end of the week.  You just need it to move up by ANY amount, that you would profit.

 

yes and no.  time decay is real.  theta is the rate of decline in price as the deadline approaches.  the closer it gets, the faster theta decays.  

 

if you plan on covering your option very soon after you purchase it, theta will hurt you less than if you decide to cover it later.

[52-80 19076]

Just now, gsoda3 said:

yes and no.  time decay is real.  theta is the rate of decline in price as the deadline approaches.  the closer it gets, the faster theta decays.  

 

if you plan on covering your option very soon after you purchase it, theta will hurt you less than if you decide to cover it later.

its a bit of a deep dive to bring in the kitchen sink with theta, and even vega (my personal favorite and what i exploit).

in the context of trading GME and the wild swings that it has, theta is almost negligible -- nobody should be sitting on it overnight. 

 

[Blotto 23424]

13 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

its a bit of a deep dive to bring in the kitchen sink with theta, and even vega (my personal favorite and what i exploit).

in the context of trading GME and the wild swings that it has, theta is almost negligible -- nobody should be sitting on it overnight. 

 

 

[gsoda3 3234]

22 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

in the context of trading GME and the wild swings that it has, theta is almost negligible -- nobody should be sitting on it overnight. 

 

hah that's easier to say on a tuesday than a thursday.  i very much disagree that theta is negligible-  it certainly isn't as important if you cover the same day, but options are such a major factor in trading high delta moves like these especially in the context of overnight risk you just can't ignore it.  

 

 

[52-80 19076]

4 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

hah that's easier to say on a tuesday than a thursday.  i very much disagree that theta is negligible-  it certainly isn't as important if you cover the same day, but options are such a major factor in trading high delta moves like these especially in the context of overnight risk you just can't ignore it.  

 

 

that's why i have multiple open far OTM short puts on it right, thiefing theta while it'll likely expire friday worthless .  #shortvol4life

for the robinhood crowd -- which is net buyer of options, and especially near-expiry ones as yolo gambles -- an ATM call is +100 delta, -240 theta.  if they're bullish on the stock, a 2 point movement in stock price pretty much offsets the theta decay. 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

58 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

A good move as, at this point, there’s more % upside on UUUU and AMYZF.  Still holding all three stocks and looking for a dip to add to the UUUU position.  Glad you made money.

I would like to send a thank you, what’s the best way to do it?  I can do Best Buy coupons or a Venmo if you want to slum.  Just pm me.  You guys are awesome for the dumas “investors “ like me.

[RCRanger03 1049]

Surly needs to be a HumblPay only place when that becomes live in the US

[gsoda3 3234]

7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

that's why i have multiple open far OTM short puts on it right, thiefing theta while it'll likely expire friday worthless .  #shortvol4life

haha if you're into that there's a trade idea involving 800 calls but for that one you'll have to subscribe to my newsletter.  

[gsoda3 3234]

9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

for the robinhood crowd -- which is net buyer of options, and especially near-expiry ones as yolo gambles -- an ATM call is +100 delta, -240 theta.  if they're bullish on the stock, a 2 point movement in stock price pretty much offsets the theta decay. 

isn't the RH crowd buying OTM calls?  at least that used to be the MO

[Trey3216 15325]

ALT with another interesting day.  Down 7% or so in the morning and up over 5% right now.  

[52-80 19076]

3 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

haha if you're into that there's a trade idea involving 800 calls but for that one you'll have to subscribe to my newsletter.  

whats your idea on the 800?  ratios? calendars?

i sold a bunch of 800C yesterday that was decently safe, covered by shares.  did some at 115C last week and that was playing with fire (got out okay).  by this point pretty drained from watching 1 symbol for days in a row!  (and completely ignoring my day job)

[gsoda3 3234]

14 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

whats your idea on the 800?  ratios? calendars?

i sold a bunch of 800C yesterday that was decently safe, covered by shares.  did some at 115C last week and that was playing with fire (got out okay).  by this point pretty drained from watching 1 symbol for days in a row!  (and completely ignoring my day job)

i said it as a joke about collecting the premiums for the naked 800 calls.  good to hear you did ok with the 115 calls though i know a few who got burned making that play.  

[Anastasis 23390]

11 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

i said it as a joke about collecting the premiums for the naked 800 calls.  good to hear you did ok with the 115 calls though i know a few who got burned making that play.  

I sold some 115 calls. Made a small bit on the trade (~15%).  Got out before shit went nuts.  I would have been down like 300k on the trade at one point.  eek.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

I am getting to the point where if I can make 500-1k a week, I will start profit taking.  Not pure day trading, but I have sat and held for a while.  Anyone have some interesting option trading strategies?  I am still a newby when it comes to a lot of this.

[Wally Fairway 5517]

ALPP with a nice closing push.
FOMO? or real news

[Wally Fairway 5517]

4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am getting to the point where if I can make 500-1k a week, I will start profit taking.  Not pure day trading, but I have sat and held for a while.  Anyone have some interesting option trading strategies?  I am still a newby when it comes to a lot of this.

If you can make that weekly, remember that the tax man will want his cut. So you'll have to put some aside, unless you have losses elsewhere.....like from a bar 

[Trey3216 15325]

Holy Shit!! Bezos stepping down as CEO at AMZN

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

If you can make that weekly, remember that the tax man will want his cut. So you'll have to put some aside, unless you have losses elsewhere.....like from a bar 

Not the person with a bar.  And yeah, I know.  Thankfully, I have significant expenses from my main consulting business, so that is always nice.  I am cool setting aside half so the guvmint gets theirs. 

[NateHitch 1282]

Just to add to the memestock insanity, Blackrock just bought 6 million shares of AMC

[Wally Fairway 5517]

1 minute ago, NateHitch said:

Just to add to the memestock insanity, Blackrock just bought 6 million shares of AMC

what is their poster name on /WSB?

[52-80 19076]

7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Holy Shit!! Bezos stepping down as CEO at AMZN

no jokin?

[Trey3216 15325]

8 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am getting to the point where if I can make 500-1k a week, I will start profit taking.  Not pure day trading, but I have sat and held for a while.  Anyone have some interesting option trading strategies?  I am still a newby when it comes to a lot of this.

I like buying in the money or at the money bull call strategies with 3-6 months time.  Got to be confident in the stock, obviously, but it’s a way to participate without having to lay as much on the table.  
 

For instance, I like some oil names right now as supply is finally starting to tighten and should get to 5 year average in the next few months.  
 

so here’s an example:

 

CVX is trading at 87.xx/share right now.   
 

I can buy the June $85 strike call for $7.65/sh right now.   I can then look and sell the June $100 call for $2.57/sh.    Net cost of $5.08, which means I need CVX to be at $90.08 by June to get all my money back.  If it runs to 95 by June, my contract will be worth $10, or double my money.   You make money all the way up to $100/share on the stock price.  $15 max contract value.   But it’s a relatively simple trade that I can see play out fairly convincingly and without having to risk to a of money to do it.   

[52-80 19076]

16 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am getting to the point where if I can make 500-1k a week, I will start profit taking.  Not pure day trading, but I have sat and held for a while.  Anyone have some interesting option trading strategies?  I am still a newby when it comes to a lot of this.

this is has been my strategy since last summer.  semi-day trading. actively place a few trades each day, but not actively monitoring trades the entire day (GME episode exempted).  steep'ish learning curve, but super glad i learned it, and keeps me engaged with the market. 

 

if theres an interest, we should start an Options trading thread, id love to shoot the shit.

[Trey3216 15325]

6 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

no jokin?

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Holy Shit!! Bezos stepping down as CEO at AMZN

Wow. He's going to buy a state and kick everyone out?

[Anastasis 23390]

Cuck.

 

[52-80 19076]

forced profit on daily trades is way more satisfying (and dopamine pumping) than getting lucky on a long stock and the excruciating decision of should-i-shouldnt-i sell, or sitting on a stale position and wanting to dump it or well-now-itll-finally-move.

 

your year end excel file for taxes will be hilarious though.  (i use filing service)

[Anastasis 23390]

1 minute ago, 52-80 said:

forced profit on daily trades is way more satisfying (and dopamine pumping) than getting lucky on a long stock and the excruciating decision of should-i-shouldnt-i sell, or sitting on a stale position and wanting to dump it or well-now-itll-finally-move.

 

your year end excel file for taxes will be hilarious though.  (i use filing service)

schwab loads that shit right into turbo tax. Impossible to put a price on dopamine surges. 

[52-80 19076]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

 

banging hookers all year and then attending 4 board meetings a year.  must be nice.

[Trey3216 15325]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

banging hookers all year and then attending 4 board meetings a year.  must be nice.

And he can buy a new $2000 hooker every day for the next 137, 000 years.   

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

banging hookers all year and then attending 4 board meetings a year.  must be nice.

It is.

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

banging hookers all year and then attending 4 board meetings a year.  must be nice.

in a row?

[Continental Op 3934]

If I was one of the richest people in the world like Bezos I would have thrown in the CEO towel and started doing I Am One of the Richest People in the World shit all day a long time ago.  

Edited February 2, 2021 by Continental Op

[DonkeyCigars 144]

5 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

If I was one of the richest people in the world like Bezos I would have thrown in the CEO towel and started doing I Am One of the Richest People in the World shit all day a long time ago.  

That is probably a statement that begs the question, in that, you are not one of the richest people in the world precisely because you think like that and it exempts you from operating in a way that is necessary to be one of the richest people in the world.

It's a compliment really, I'm saying you aren't mentally ill or sociopathic. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by DonkeyCigars

[Continental Op 3934]

Sir, everyone on Surly is one of the richest people in the world.  

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

6 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Sir, everyone on Surly is one of the richest people in the world.  

1% of 1%. Only bang 10's.

[Harrison Stafford 3325]

17 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Sir, everyone on Surly is one of the richest people in the world.  

And, it's nice to have good company at the top.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

59 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

this is has been my strategy since last summer.  semi-day trading. actively place a few trades each day, but not actively monitoring trades the entire day (GME episode exempted).  steep'ish learning curve, but super glad i learned it, and keeps me engaged with the market. 

 

if theres an interest, we should start an Options trading thread, id love to shoot the shit.

I think this is a good idea.  Then the market threads are 4.  A general market thread, this STONK thread, the penny stock thread, and an option thread.  

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

15 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

And, it's nice to have good company at the top.