Jump to content

Surly #Stonks

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 9.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

Posted Images

Blotto

Blotto 23418

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I think what pisses me off the most about yesterday is that the WSJ and Barron's both put out hit pieces on Pot Stocks.  Basically saying how the existing Canadian companies will not benefit from US legalization.  And of course, most the idiots believed it.

Long and short, the current US market is a shitshow, with differing regulatory regimes in different states.  If the Feds legalized it, they could help to streamline some of this, similar to any other commodity, especially on the production and wholesale side (Afterall, weed is ultimately an agricultural commodity), which I think would help the big Canadian companies more than the small US companies who only operate in this state of that state.

It is really frustrating.  

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If (more likely, as soon as)the federal legislation takes hold it will open the door for US agricultural corporations to scale up rapidly. the Canadian growers are massively oversupplied (basically growing way more weed than they need). Its a commodity and when the market is right here in the US, I doubt the canadian companies will be major players. Why does it make sense that Canadian companies would capture market share here in the US? You think US Big AG is going to sit back and let the profits head north of the border?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bone3421

Bone3421 716

Posted
Posted

One of yall can do a deeper dive into it...if ya feel like it

But Dr. Bury(big short fame) put out a tweet about the Japan "iron lid" might be finally lifted....which brings me to

EWJ an ETF that is covers 85% of Japan's stocks and options are super cheap right now....

I'm in for x4 Jan 2022 100c for .21 a share

And Jan 2023 105c for .67 a share

Just a fyi for anyone interested

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:

One of yall can do a deeper dive into it...if ya feel like it

But Dr. Bury(big short fame) put out a tweet about the Japan "iron lid" might be finally lifted....which brings me to

EWJ an ETF that is covers 85% of Japan's stocks and options are super cheap right now....

I'm in for x4 Jan 2022 100c for .21 a share

And Jan 2023 105c for .67 a share

Just a fyi for anyone interested
 

You think Japan's market is gonna go up 41% by January??  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19073

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Blotto said:

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If (more likely, as soon as)the federal legislation takes hold it will open the door for US agricultural corporations to scale up rapidly. the Canadian growers are massively oversupplied (basically growing way more weed than they need). Its a commodity and when the market is right here in the US, I doubt the canadian companies will be major players. Why does it make sense that Canadian companies would capture market share here in the US? You think US Big AG is going to sit back and let the profits head north of the border?

I think that US Big Ag is going to have a problem with this commodity.  Pot isn't wheat.  While it is an agricultural commodity, there are different strains etc...  

Big Ag will definitely get into the game, but I do not think they will be able to ramp up initially.  I think the Canadian companies are going to have a great head start.  Will that bump be permanent, no.  But it will be good in the short term for them.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I think that US Big Ag is going to have a problem with this commodity.  Pot isn't wheat.  While it is an agricultural commodity, there are different strains etc...  

Big Ag will definitely get into the game, but I do not think they will be able to ramp up initially.  I think the Canadian companies are going to have a great head start.  Will that bump be permanent, no.  But it will be good in the short term for them.  

Big Tobacco will replace some of their fields.  It will be swift  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23418

Posted
Posted

I doubt its that hard to grow weed. plenty of regional US companies are already doing it for recreational and medicinal markets that can be acquired. Look at Trulieve (TCNNF) in Florida. Here's their performance vs the largest 4 canadian companies over a 2 year time frame. I think we can supply us needs entirely domestically when legalized federally, and these Canadian companies will be left standing around with massive inventory and no place to sell it. 

image.thumb.png.713cca8cad5aca2e420683ed1bbd15b7.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19073

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Big Tobacco will replace some of their fields.  It will be swift  

I believe this will happen as well, but they have to wait until it is legal first. And it will take time.  In the interim, the shortfall can be supplied from....Canada.  I would say a year or two to get it going well from big US companies.  The Canadians have been doing this for a bit now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19073

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Blotto said:

I doubt its that hard to grow weed. plenty of regional US companies are already doing it for recreational and medicinal markets that can be acquired. Look at Trulieve (TCNNF) in Florida. Here's their performance vs the largest 4 canadian companies over a 2 year time frame. I think we can supply us needs entirely domestically when legalized federally, and these Canadian companies will be left standing around with massive inventory and no place to sell it. 

image.thumb.png.713cca8cad5aca2e420683ed1bbd15b7.png

Their performance which is, what exactly. Stock price?  Or is this cash flow, EPS, EBIT?  

Stock price, is as we have all discovered, somewhat divorced from reality.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23418

Posted
Posted (edited)

that chart happens to be stock price, but lets look at operating income for TTM 

TCNNF: +$194M

CRON: -$183M

CGC: - $585M

ACB: - $297M 

APHA: +$7.7 M 

There's really no point in arguing until its legalized at the federal level. I just have a strong conviction that the canadian pot growers will lose out. I personally think there will be rapid oversupply even with US grown product and cant figure out any cost advantage that Canadians will have. If you feel stongly that they will be big winners, you should rejoice about recent price action as you can now buy cheaper for the eventual explosion in stock price.

And for the record, I'm not particularly bullish on the growers to begin with. I suspect the money to be made is in the retail channel or possibly vertically integrated grow/retail operations. The wholesale market will be brutally competitive with no opportunity to drive price higher. 

Edited by Blotto
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cam4mav

cam4mav 770

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

And for the record, I'm not particularly bullish on the growers to begin with. I suspect the money to be made is in the retail channel or possibly vertically integrated grow/retail operations. The wholesale market will be brutally competitive with no opportunity to drive price higher. 

Anecdotal data point here as a Washingtonian that knows people in retail and grow side. no numbers here, just conversations with friends.

Supply massively outweighed Demand (via restricted retail license's), grows either failed or barely scraped by. The one's that survived are making decent money currently but like you say it's capped, no going to grow (lol). They survived based on excellent relationships with the shop owners, not at all product A being better than product B. If you are investing in a grow, make sure you absolutely love their sales and marketing teams. product doesn't mean anything. don't get lost in the differences between strains and growing practices or whatever. Probably looks good on a presentation, but if they can't move their stuff it doesn't matter. And the shops don't give a flying fuck about that because customers are not educated or interested about that stuff at POS. Shops just want to squeeze your price to cost and make 10x.

Retail on the other hand.....has been printing money since opening day. Retarded monkeys are making money hand over fist that own shops. When shit gets legalized, invest in retail or own your own store if you can. If there are opportunities for a major player to franchise across states they'll be starbucks/mcdonalds rich

 

 

personally i'm going to put money into a weed ETF eventually but i'm staying out for now

Edited by cam4mav
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cam4mav

cam4mav 770

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Got some rec's for ones you are targeting? I just bought a little YOLO on the dip but I would like to start building some exposure over the next few months.

I'm not targeting any really, at least for now. I'm currently playing some surly pennies, ALPP, AMYZF, and TSNP. 

I know YOLO has a mix of US, Canadian, and pharma in it's portfolio. 

MSOS is only US cannabis. 

Those are the only two I know anything about and it's very light googling not actual research. 

 

edit : If I was to have one right now I'd probably get into MSOS sometime next week. Purely because I have not specifically seen it mentioned on reddit unlike YOLO, and reddit tards are volatile and not what i want out of an etf play lol.

Edited by cam4mav
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tailgate

Tailgate 3014

Posted
Posted

Started following CCIV and RBLX after a friend mentioned them. RBLX is an interesting one. Not trading yet but will be soon and apparently has a big following with kids gaming. I’ve downloaded the app and played a couple games. There is also a Stocktwits ticker thread on it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
  • Author
Posted
On 2/12/2021 at 6:06 PM, Wally Fairway said:

3 day weekend for stonks - I hate this, need to see what my stonks are doing

 

21 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Sunday night no premarket disappointment is real

Ahhh - only just over 15 hours until the exchanges open, and futures/pre-market are up for now

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bodhi

Bodhi 1111

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, cam4mav said:

psst AMY horde

https://www.accesswire.com/629833/Former-Tesla-Director-for-Central-Europe-Joins-American-Manganese-Advisory-Board

 

Is that good? 

I saw this as well.  Not really sure how high the connections would be for a Director in Tesla?  That said, I choose to assume this guy and Elon are smoking buddies and a huge deal is imminent!  Triple digit share price coming soon!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bodhi

Bodhi 1111

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Bodhi said:

I saw this as well.  Not really sure how high the connections would be for a Director in Tesla?  That said, I choose to assume this guy and Elon are smoking buddies and a huge deal is imminent!  Triple digit share price coming soon!

Apparently this guy did report directly to Elon at one point. Buckle up

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23418

Posted
Posted

OSS has really come to life here recently. Bought at $2.40 in early August, now approaching $7.50. Edge computing company that trades for about 2X revenue, and while not wildly profitable has turned a profit for the last 4 quarters on a TTM quarterly basis. They get a lot of revenue from gov/military business which is nice. No matter what else happens, I presume we'll keep throwing more money at the military. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23418

Posted
Posted

So once we get through the madness of this cold snap, wonder if there are specific companies that benefit from the carnage. I have done no research on it, but I turned a pretty decent profit buying options on one of the pureplay sheetrock companies (think it was USG, before they got acquired) right after Harvey. If you are a pureplay pool infrastructure or plumbing supply OEM, is the spike from Texas damage enough to move the stock price? Hell even Lowes and Home Depot, now with all of the resi contractors and do it your selfers. I guess the question is whether this incident is enough to move the needle for any company or vertical? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 18988

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Last week I sold RIOT at around $29 for a nice 30% gain. Fuck me.

I’ve been holding shares since under $10 and same with MARA, but over the last week I’ve asked myself why i never bought any calls on them. The only answer I’ve come up with so far is that I’m a dumbass. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
veritas aequitas

veritas aequitas 436

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Blotto said:

So once we get through the madness of this cold snap, wonder if there are specific companies that benefit from the carnage. I have done no research on it, but I turned a pretty decent profit buying options on one of the pureplay sheetrock companies (think it was USG, before they got acquired) right after Harvey. If you are a pureplay pool infrastructure or plumbing supply OEM, is the spike from Texas damage enough to move the stock price? Hell even Lowes and Home Depot, now with all of the resi contractors and do it your selfers. I guess the question is whether this incident is enough to move the needle for any company or vertical? 

I would think Generac should look good going forward. But I thought that last March and then I sold when it hit $100. It will probably blow past $400 now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...