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Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
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HoustonHorn

HoustonHorn 1059

Posted
Posted
Sorry, I should have included that they are all short term cap gains.  Good point on cap gains taxes potentially going up.  If my plan is to hold some long term for a potential moonshot then I may as well take the hit on the most profitable shares now.  Although if TSNP goes to $10, it's not going to make that much of a difference if I bought the shares at $.31 or if I bought them today at $.87.
[mention=1636]Cheeseweasel[/mention]
It will if your bought 3x much.
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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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bluto

bluto 4872

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This WKHS usps contract stupidity is great watching. Wkhs was the only full EV bidder left for redoing the USPS fleet, shares were trading as if they were a shoe in.... it went to Oshkosh (no idea) and WKHS fell 60%. but Oshkosh/DeJoy said it’d be a mix of hybrid and EV, Congress got pissy and raised hell it’s not full EV. This caused WKHS to bounce 25% and saw something about kathie wood is back on wkhs too

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Blotto

Blotto 23418

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On 12/17/2020 at 9:11 PM, Blotto said:

It seems so obvious that I'm sure I'll somehow lose my ass on it, but I'm in on a couple of DASH puts on principle alone. Aug 21 expiry to let Covid run its course a bit more, but jumping in now in case the market somehow comes to its senses (I know not likely). 120 strike at $20 per contract. Cant wait to see this bitch run to $300 now.  

DASH - TTM Revenue $2.24B, Net income -$226M, Market cap  $50B

GRUB - TTM Revenue $1.7B, Net income -$109M, Market cap - $6.6B

FDX - TTM Revenue $75B, Net income $1.7B, Market cap - $75B

UPS - TTM Revenue $80B, Net income $4.5B, Market cap - $147B

 

So this investment gamble has pretty much been a bust so far. At the time of that post, DASH closed at $155. It ran up as high as $256 because the market is unhinged, before settling down around $166 today before they announced earnings. Now trading around $145 after hours, so that gives you some idea of the results.

image.png.09280adb4f0491dc5a800c1274ae8f2c.png

They didn't forecast revenue for FY 2021 but did forecast 2021 Marketplace GOV (Gross order value) to be in the range of $30-$33 billion . If you consider Q4 Marketplace GOV was $8.2B that doesnt imply much room for revenue growth in 2021. So how is this POS ever going to make money? 

I considered doubling up when the contract price dropped below $10 last week, but decided not to get buried even further as there seems to be a lot of love for this dogshit company. I may be back to break even by tomorrow ($20), we'll see. And the lockup expires march 9th,  So I got that goin' for me, which is nice. On the flip side this comment I read on reddit about buying DASH puts is oh so true....

Quote

Exactly. Basic financial principles left this market long ago. You can't out maneuver a tribe of chimps. They will pin you down and rip your testes off.

 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21091

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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

WTF is going on today?  I am so tired of this shitty market.  

We need a real 7-10% pull back before a large run the rest of the year.  Not sure this will end up that drop.  Just look at it as taking our medicine.  
 

I actually believe that BS.  We’ll see.  

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19073

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18 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

We need a real 7-10% pull back before a large run the rest of the year.  Not sure this will end up that drop.  Just look at it as taking our medicine.  
 

I actually believe that BS.  We’ll see.  

Yeah, I have lost more than 7-10%.  More like 30%, which fucking blows.  I know it is my play account, but I want to make enough in this account to fund trips in 2022, and that shit isn't  happening.

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Blotto

Blotto 23418

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20 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

We need a real 7-10% pull back before a large run the rest of the year.  Not sure this will end up that drop.  Just look at it as taking our medicine.  
 

I actually believe that BS.  We’ll see.  

Yup. We're like 3% off all time market highs. not the end of the world. Market looks like its gonna be all over the place today. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21091

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53 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Every time I've pulled money out on a big dip, I missed out on big gains within 90 days. Not doing it this time.

 

I just don’t pull money.  Only time was day before hoops tourney was cancelled and I got lucky because I reinvested in more covid stocks even though I got back in 5% above where I pulled out.  But that’s the only time in my life and I’ll try not to again until I’m an old bastard.  ‘Buy the dip, faget’ is what I try to stick with.  Definitely not easy.  
 

With BTC I set buy and sells often and am net positive vs staying in but it’s volatile as all hell.  
 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23418

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Posted (edited)

Noticed the following recap on Volkswagen's earnings release. For 2020, they made $10 billion in profit. They also sold 422K EVs (which was 200 % increase YoY). I compare that to Tesla with $720 million in profit and sales of 510K EVs. They now sell more EVs in Europe than Tesla, yet Tesla still has a market cap greater than 6 times that of Volkswagen. When you consider the VW, porsche, and audi brands, my guess is they will easily pass Tesla in EV sales this year. Its getting harder and harder for me to resist buying some leap puts on Tesla. Yeah the market can stay irrational for long periods of time, but as more auto manufacturers come to scale in EVs, tesla's revenue stream of zev credits goes away, so do their profits. I guess Elon buying BTC is the differentiator?

Edit - apparently some of that VW annual sales figure are hybrids, not pure EVs, but it doesnt really change my thinking much. 

Edited by Blotto
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SuperSport

SuperSport 1328

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12 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Noticed the following recap on Volkswagen's earnings release. For 2020, they made $10 billion in profit. They also sold 422K EVs (which was 200 % increase YoY). I compare that to Tesla with $720 million in profit and sales of 510K EVs. They now sell more EVs in Europe than Tesla, yet Tesla still has a market cap greater than 6 times that of Volkswagen. When you consider the VW, porsche, and audi brands, my guess is they will easily pass Tesla in EV sales this year. Its getting harder and harder for me to resist buying some leap puts on Tesla. Yeah the market can stay irrational for long periods of time, but as more auto manufacturers come to scale in EVs, tesla's revenue stream of zev credits goes away, so do their profits. I guess Elon buying BTC is the differentiator?

Edit - apparently some of that VW annual sales figure are hybrids, not pure EVs, but it doesnt really change my thinking much. 

bUt TeSlA iSn'T jUsT a CaR cOmPaNy.

-every Tesla owner I know

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IDIOTsavant

IDIOTsavant 8437

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, SuperSport said:

bUt TeSlA iSn'T jUsT a CaR cOmPaNy.

-every Tesla owner I know

The one thing I would look at beyond EVs is the solar roof they're starting to roll out. Looks like they've finally settled on one design, so they might start to see some traction there. Hopefully, they can manufacture that a bit more competently from the jump because it looks like a really good product long term.

Edited by IDIOTsavant
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

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Happy 1st birthday to Surly Stonks - can't believe the ride, and the children of this thread (penny stonk and derivatives - though penny stonk took a wayward turn while I've been on vacation and I have to figure out how to talk to that one (what the hell is discord and how to I tree-fiddy?)

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bluto

bluto 4872

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Posted

Restaked on uuuu and uranium in general after reading up more. Bought Jan 23 calls on uuuu and ccj, and rebought some uuuu July calls as well at $10 strike as opposed to $5 I had previously in case green new deal gets cozy with nuclear.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19073

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5 hours ago, bluto said:

Really tempting to roll my current winnings on uuuuu calls into Jan 23 leaps, spreads aren’t great but they’re still really damn cheap if this company is even remotely legit/competent

My UUUU calls are all in the red at the moment.  Hoping I see some reversals of that this week.

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3325

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I think the NK burst to 45 may have been shorts who were getting squeezed.  Today, the J&J announcement with Merck is weighing on vaccine biotechs (although NK is, predominantly, a cancer play with the Covid vaccine as a bonus). NK is under the 20 day ema at 30.06 if it doesn't reverse into the close.  The next support would be at 26.  Remember, any good news on the cancer front can turn NK on a dime.

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3325

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10 hours ago, bluto said:


What’s your take on their partnering company that caused this increase? Worth throwing a few coins on them as well?

NOPMF - Neo Performance Materials.  Doesn't trade much volume.  No debt, little short interest.  Might be worth a spec position.  I would not take a large position.

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