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Surly #Stonks

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3392

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

So you're saying I should buy 150 LEAPs on the January 2023 $10 strike???  

You'd need 13 1/2 to break even by Jan.23.  If UUUU's ramp up of rare earth production is successful, I believe that will work.  It's not cheap though...50% of the cost of the stock.

Edited by Harrison Stafford
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

You'd need 13 1/2 to break even by Jan.23.  If UUUU's ramp up of rare earth production is successful, I believe that will work.  It's not cheap though...50% of the cost of the stock.

Since Stonks only go up, I expect it to be at least $50 by then... 

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3392

Posted
Posted

Both CNBC & Zacks had 3/15 as the earnings date for UUUU, Motley Fool had 3/9, Seeking Alpha has 3/17 (estimated), and TipRanks has 3/24.  It appears we ain’t getting  earnings today, so who knows when they’ll be released?  Based on the volume and UUUU finishing the day near it’s high, i’m guessing something’s up, but can only speculate as to what that is.  I do know if UUUU dips under $6.35, will be looking for a spot to add shares.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19305

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Both CNBC & Zacks had 3/15 as the earnings date for UUUU, Motley Fool had 3/9, Seeking Alpha has 3/17 (estimated), and TipRanks has 3/24.  It appears we ain’t getting  earnings today, so who knows when they’ll be released?  Based on the volume and UUUU finishing the day near it’s high, i’m guessing something’s up, but can only speculate as to what that is.  I do know if UUUU dips under $6.35, will be looking for a spot to add shares.

Last year, they were required to file on March 16.  Seems like they might be an accelerated filer, which means it is due tomorrow, March 16.  That is when it was due last year as well.  

Usually, the press release/investor call happens before filing with the SEC (so if you file on Friday, you might have the call on Thursday afternoon), and these things are due by 5:30 PM ET.  

Edited by PenelopeWitherspoon
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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19305

Posted
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55 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Yeah, I saw that.  How are your UUUU options faring?

I took some profits today.  Exited my 4/16 contracts (5) and 3 of my 7/16 contracts (I had 10 total) for over $450 in profits today, clocking in about a 60% return.  Still have 7 contracts which are up 462 at the moment.  I am holding onto them a bit.  If I see an opportunity to exit for my target return, I will and will think about LEAPs.

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Blotto

Blotto 24013

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Posted
On 2/26/2021 at 12:50 PM, Blotto said:

Noticed the following recap on Volkswagen's earnings release. For 2020, they made $10 billion in profit. They also sold 422K EVs (which was 200 % increase YoY). I compare that to Tesla with $720 million in profit and sales of 510K EVs. They now sell more EVs in Europe than Tesla, yet Tesla still has a market cap greater than 6 times that of Volkswagen. When you consider the VW, porsche, and audi brands, my guess is they will easily pass Tesla in EV sales this year. Its getting harder and harder for me to resist buying some leap puts on Tesla. Yeah the market can stay irrational for long periods of time, but as more auto manufacturers come to scale in EVs, tesla's revenue stream of zev credits goes away, so do their profits. I guess Elon buying BTC is the differentiator?

Edit - apparently some of that VW annual sales figure are hybrids, not pure EVs, but it doesnt really change my thinking much. 

Bought into Volkswagen last week at $27. On the heels of their battery day and FY earnings this morning, they are sitting at ~$34 premarket this morning.  I have managed to withhold the temptation to bet against TSLA for years, but think this is the year I cave. With all that stimulus money bound to hit the markets over the next couple of weeks, I'll wait to see if TSLA peeks back over $750-$800, but then I'll probably buy some long dated puts.

So ill be long VW and short TSLA, but with more money on the long side. Just can't see TSLA maintaining a market cap 5X larger than VW when VW just posted FY earnings 10x higher than TSLA and there's a good chance they sell more EVs globally than TSLA this year. 

 

 

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The Royal We

The Royal We 3100

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Bought into Volkswagen last week at $27. On the heels of their battery day and FY earnings this morning, they are sitting at ~$34 premarket this morning.  I have managed to withhold the temptation to bet against TSLA for years, but think this is the year I cave. With all that stimulus money bound to hit the markets over the next couple of weeks, I'll wait to see if TSLA peeks back over $750-$800, but then I'll probably buy some long dated puts.

So ill be long VW and short TSLA, but with more money on the long side. Just can't see TSLA maintaining a market cap 5X larger than VW when VW just posted FY earnings 10x higher than TSLA and there's a good chance they sell more EVs globally than TSLA this year. 

 

 

I like this idea.  I've long thought the TSLA mania would come crashing down at some point, but it continues to be completely irrational. 

eta: Just looked at the pricing on the long dated puts, whoa - spendy.  3/17/2023 200 P current ask $22.90

Edited by The Royal We
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Blotto

Blotto 24013

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I like this idea.  I've long thought the TSLA mania would come crashing down at some point, but it continues to be completely irrational. 

eta: Just looked at the pricing on the long dated puts, whoa - spendy.  3/17/2023 200 P current ask $22.90

Yeah deciding on a time frame for those puts is TBD. May look at jan 22, as I really think the correction starts this year. We'll see. Being short TSLA has crushed people far smarter than me.

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19230

Posted
Posted

UUUU continues to run. Really seems like it must have something to do with upcoming news. I’m tempted to sell some of my position before an announcement and then buy more after if we find out a date, since it seems like everything falls after news or earnings regardless of how positive. 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

UUUU continues to run. Really seems like it must have something to do with upcoming news. I’m tempted to sell some of my position before an announcement and then buy more after if we find out a date, since it seems like everything falls after news or earnings regardless of how positive. 

Earning comes out 3/19.  I am going to sit tight on this one as if I get off I am not sure I can get back on.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

Posted
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5 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So they missed the filing deadline?  Should have filed with the SEC today.

Apparently everyone is throwing dates out for them, that was from my TD Ameritrade account.  I saw on Reddit it is the 24th?  Seems like it should be easier to find out.

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Coelenterate Fuccboi

Coelenterate Fuccboi 13431

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:

BlackBerry patent for autonomous vehicle system was approved today...grab some shares for the moon ride

Going to be in a whole bunch vehicles

It covers "A method at an autonomous vehicle for signaling a refueling attendant, the method including confirming that the autonomous vehicle is proximal to a refueling station; providing a signal to the refueling attendant; waiting for refueling to commence; and if, after a threshold period, refueling has not commenced, repeating the providing the signal"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3673200-blackberry-moves-to-days-high-on-autonomous-vehicle-patent-news

I hope there’s more refueling attendants on the moon than in the US.

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Blotto

Blotto 24013

Posted
Posted
On 3/16/2021 at 8:33 AM, Blotto said:

Bought into Volkswagen last week at $27. On the heels of their battery day and FY earnings this morning, they are sitting at ~$34 premarket this morning.  I have managed to withhold the temptation to bet against TSLA for years, but think this is the year I cave. With all that stimulus money bound to hit the markets over the next couple of weeks, I'll wait to see if TSLA peeks back over $750-$800, but then I'll probably buy some long dated puts.

So ill be long VW and short TSLA, but with more money on the long side. Just can't see TSLA maintaining a market cap 5X larger than VW when VW just posted FY earnings 10x higher than TSLA and there's a good chance they sell more EVs globally than TSLA this year. 

 

 


Damn... Volkswagen now up 50% in the last week. Doubt it will hold onto those gains, but its evident the market is starting to realize there is huge disconnect between the valuation of Tesla & Volkswagen. 

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3392

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On 3/9/2021 at 5:23 PM, bluto said:

Alright Harrison, talk me out of this on UUUU... selling naked puts for Jan 2023 at $5 strike with premium at $2.50. The absolute worst case is having to pay ~$2.75/share if it goes tits up entirely right? And as mentioned they’re a debt free operation.

Then rolling those proceeds into calls for same exp.

Bluto, you asked me a question about UUUU options and I responded with a meme to get a cheap laugh because I would stoop that low.  However, you deserve a real answer because  I don't want you to lose dinero.  So, here's your answer.  Your risk analysis on this trade is flawed.  If you take the $2.50 received in premium and invest it in calls, if the stock goes to zero, you'd be assigned the stock at $5/sh on the in the money put and the stock you received would be worthless.  Additionally, the $2.50 premium you initially collected selling the put which was then invested in calls would also be 100% lost as the calls expired worthless if the stock went to zero.  So, at the end of the day, you are out $5/sh on the worthless stock that you were assigned at 5.  Hope this helps.

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Blotto

Blotto 24013

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, victory88 said:

damn... logged into my account and this is a shit start to the day.  I never time the market correctly and always end up losing money haha.  I'm just going to hold long on whatever I've invested in... fuck it.

I feel ya man. Market hasn't reached these depths since ...checks charts...approximately 3PM yesterday. 

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3392

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12 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

@Harrison Stafford, I don’t believe  I’ve thanked you for sharing your stonks. I truly appreciate it!

Happy to help!  My hope is, collectively, we make enough money (over time) to have a seat at the BMD table because Lord knows the powers that be at UT could use Surly’s input.  Kidding......sorta.

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BurdineBandit

BurdineBandit 846

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

@Harrison Stafford, I don’t believe  I’ve thanked you for sharing your stonks. I truly appreciate it!

I spread $500 around 5 positions just to dip my toes in to robinhood amid the meme stock craze (first timer). I've turned it into $620 in about 7 weeks; I know it's not a lot, but it's honest work (and long-plays). The only two stocks leading the charge are UUUU and IBRX. Everything else is stagnant. The lesson I've learned so far is take less advice from Twitter, more from strangers on Surly (H.S.).

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