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Surly #Stonks

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
in Business and Markets

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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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Coelenterate Fuccboi

Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010

Posted
Posted (edited)

Not that any positive IBRX news seems to matter for more than a day but…

ImmunityBio Announces Promising Clinical Study Results for ‘Kick and Kill’ HIV Cure Strategy to Reduce HIV Viral Load with Anktiva (N-803) Therapy

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/immunitybio-announces-promising-clinical-study-001600024.html

Edited by Coelenterate Fuccboi
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ATexanAbroad

ATexanAbroad 627

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Never been south of Sao Paulo. Looks great.

It’s the summer spot and tons of argies and Brazilians come here. Absolutely amazing, about 10 different towns with different vibes and about 50 beaches all within 30 minutes of the center. 
 

Staying here til March when it gets colder because it is south and then heading up to Bahia. 

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ATexanAbroad

ATexanAbroad 627

Posted
Posted
Just now, Superhero said:

Mid-term prospects for FB? Is the 25% drop a knee jerk by the market.

At the risk of catching it on continued downward slide, is it worth a $10,000 buy in into the game at this point?

 

 

I bought today because anything that isn’t a 10 right is getting slaughtered. The meraverse COULD be the next internet. It’s trading at 15 times 2022 Net revenue. Peg ratio of .75. I don’t think you can lose 

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Superhero

Superhero 8775

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

I bought today because anything that isn’t a 10 right is getting slaughtered. The meraverse COULD be the next internet. It’s trading at 15 times 2022 Net revenue. Peg ratio of .75. I don’t think you can lose 

Just bought 45 shares. Because why the hell not.

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Muny_Tex

Muny_Tex 292

Posted
Posted
Just bought 45 shares. Because why the hell not.

It appears the $10k is likely ashtray money for you (therefore no big deal), but I think your move on $FB today is where dollar cost averaging is really beneficial.

If I was in your shoes I prob would’ve just committed $3k or so today and then sprinkled the remainder in weekly/bi-weekly increments in case this thing still craters further.

I guess it depends on your personality, but I always feel way worse about buying too early (and having to climb all the way back just to get even) than buying a couple days too late and missing an easy run-up.


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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3327

Posted
Posted

The stocks I’ve recommended on Surly are like the UT football team.  They may suck now, but they’re not gonna suck forever.  Bullish and looking for big things between now and EOY.  Holding 27,800 shrs of IBRX @ $9.77, 33,000 shrs of UUUU @ $5.99, & 150,000 shrs of AMYZF @ .85.  The waiting is the hardest part.

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HoustonHorn

HoustonHorn 1061

Posted
Posted
The stocks I’ve recommended on Surly are like the UT football team.  They may suck now, but they’re not gonna suck forever.  Bullish and looking for big things between now and EOY.  Holding 27,800 shrs of IBRX @ $9.77, 33,000 shrs of UUUU @ $5.99, & 150,000 shrs of AMYZF @ .85.  The waiting is the hardest part.
I so need this to be right.
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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3327

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, HoustonHorn said:
16 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:
The stocks I’ve recommended on Surly are like the UT football team.  They may suck now, but they’re not gonna suck forever.  Bullish and looking for big things between now and EOY.  Holding 27,800 shrs of IBRX @ $9.77, 33,000 shrs of UUUU @ $5.99, & 150,000 shrs of AMYZF @ .85.  The waiting is the hardest part.

I so need this to be right.

I Don't Always make big bets But when I do, I'm all in. - The Most Interesting Man In The World | Meme Generator  

I think we're going to hit on all three stonks and my money's where my mouth is. Waiting.

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3327

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

lil UUUU teaser come back

 

@Harrison Stafford

UUUU has been stockpiling uranium and vanadium waiting to sell both at higher prices. UUUU is the largest producer of United States Uranium and operates the only licensed Uranium mill in the country. The company has no debt.  As commodity prices rise, UUUU is going to make a shit ton of money.  They're also branching into rare earths.  Currently, the US is 100% reliant on rare earth imports and 80% of that is from China.  The guv'ment thinks this arrangement no es bueno.  To that end, Energy Fuels' commercial-scale production of RE Carbonate from U.S.-mined natural monazite sand positions Energy Fuels as the only company in North America currently producing a monazite-derived, enhanced rare earth material, and the only company in North America producing an intermediate rare earth product ready for separation without further processing.  Am holding 33,000 shrs of UUUU @ $5.99.  Part of that position is 8000 shrs which i added within the past several weeks @ $7.85.  This is a volatile stock and the plan is to use the recently added 8000 shrs for trading.  Am not touching the 25,000 share core position as there's way too much upside.  The journey is just beginning for Energy Fuels. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, ATexanAbroad said:

when is robinhood a good buy based on a buyout?

22 million users and 3 billion in cash?

Problem 1 - Their advantage was once commission free trading and a simple to use trading platform. they have lost the first advantage and there isnt much of a competitive moat to the second. Of those 22 million accounts, I imagine a fair number already have other trading accounts so its not as valuable as say a cell phone subscriber who would typically only have a single plan. They could disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow and the world wouldnt change one iota. Their customers could use any other trading platform and many of them already do. What is their unique value and what type of a premium over net assets would you pay for that? 

Problem 2 - they are a money losing venture with stagnated revenue and user growth. 

image.thumb.png.74405669efab05ffdcd03872a1373381.png

Whoever buys them wont realize any cost synergies if they have to keep both platforms going and there are massive costs in doing so, so the ONLY value they have is the 22 million accounts. Not sure how much that is worth, but I doubt its $11 billion (current market cap).

Edit - Also consider this :https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481114-robinhood-markets-hood-fairly-priced

Quote

In 2021 alone, 46% of Robinhood's revenue came from the buying and selling of options. Since most Robinhood users are individual retail investors, the sustainability of this revenue source is very uncertain. Compared to just trading stocks, it is much easier for a retail investor to lose his or her entire portfolio by trading options. Not to mention, there is also a much higher learning curve to properly trade options. As a result, an exchange reported that as much as 80% of all options are at a loss. In addition, Robinhood hasn't properly supported its young and first-time options traders to be successful in options. Data shows less than 1% of Robinhood options trades are multi-leg options trades, with most opting to purchase basic call and put options - statistically providing lower returns than options spread strategies. Although Robinhood does not officially disclose the profitability of its user's options trading, it's safe to assume that most aren't profitable as shown in their lack of a sophisticated options trading strategy and external data from other exchanges. Here is a good quote explaining the flaws of current Robinhood options traders from a CNBC article.

Everybody in the business knows that if you're only buying out-the-money calls, then you're likely going to lose money over time," said John Foley, CEO of Options AI. "The question of democratization shouldn't be 'can I trade options?' but 'can I have straightforward access to the options strategies that Wall Street uses?' The playing field is not level right now and no one is really focusing on that."

Eventually, more Robinhood users will likely quit options trading simply as they lose more money. Worse, only 13% of Robinhood's user base trades options - meaning each option's user represents a much higher percentage of Robinhood's revenue. It's hard to tell the rate at which users would leave, along with how fast Robinhood can attract new users to trade options through their education program. However, Robinhood's dependence on options trading is extremely dangerous nonetheless and not sustainable for the long term.

If accurate, that further cheapens the value of their 22 million person user base in my opinion. 

Edited by Blotto
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WithoutAClue

WithoutAClue 15220

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

UUUU has been stockpiling uranium and vanadium waiting to sell both at higher prices. UUUU is the largest producer of United States Uranium and operates the only licensed Uranium mill in the country. The company has no debt.  As commodity prices rise, UUUU is going to make a shit ton of money. 

CCJ begs to differ with you. So, who's gonna be right?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cameco-scorns-mythical-uranium-demand-180422571.html

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3327

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WithoutAClue said:

CCJ begs to differ with you. So, who's gonna be right?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cameco-scorns-mythical-uranium-demand-180422571.html

Nuclear has to be on the table if countries keep scrapping fossil fuels as EU, UK, and Japan have come to realize.  There aren't any baseline load generators to choose from.  UUUU and CCJ are both uranium producers.  Seems the price action of both companies indicate the market likes CCJ's actions as Cameco announced 2021 financial results this morning including increasing their dividend by 50%.  CCJ closed +2.91 to $22.75..a 14.5% move while UUUU closed +.62 to $7.23..a 9+% move.  You'll make money by owning either stock.  UUUU offers a more attractive entry price and more upside IMHO.

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Walte464

Walte464 450

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Any degenerates here still holding ALPP?  Holy shit that is a depressing stock to hold these days.  But I have definitely taught my teenage son that you can lose a lot in the stock market by telling him about that one... I think he may be an index fund guy for life now.

🙋‍♂️ 

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bluto

bluto 4894

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

if you really want to get a laugh, join the ALPP facebook group. Ton of people patting themselves on the back as Mark the car wash manager explains that all these dips are just a really great opportunity to buy more and they will be millionaires in 5 years. 

Even better is the discord. And yep, still holding a few k shares… they’ll be a good offset at some point. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Any degenerates here still holding ALPP?  Holy shit that is a depressing stock to hold these days.  But I have definitely taught my teenage son that you can lose a lot in the stock market by telling him about that one... I think he may be an index fund guy for life now.

all depends on timing. a year and a half ago it was in the pennies

image.png.1449f1c7360272ebd339bee46044d9c5.png

 

the idea that a stock would rocket from $.05 cents to almost $9 because they bought two shit drone companies that nobody had ever heard of is a testament to the idiocy of a lot of OTC pump and dumps. I would argue that this one has held up surprisingly well compared to HMBL, FPVD and a few others that a lot of us were fucking with, but they do have some actual revenue generating ability (money losing, but they actually are conducting business). Not that I have stopped my occasional gamble in stocks that I know are P&D's, I usually jus try to get out after a quick double up. 

 

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Blotto said:

the idea that a stock would rocket from $.05 cents to almost $9 because they bought two shit drone companies that nobody had ever heard of is a testament to the idiocy of a lot of OTC pump and dumps. I would argue that this one has held up surprisingly well compared to HMBL, FPVD and a few others that a lot of us were fucking with, but they do have some actual revenue generating ability (money losing, but they actually are conducting business). Not that I have stopped my occasional gamble in stocks that I know are P&D's, I usually jus try to get out after a quick double up. 

 

Pennies require a lot of baby sitting and to you point being able to take profits. I rode HMBL all the way up where I was 20x my investment and then all the way back down. I had several others that were 2x but I was waiting for that home run just o see if now drop to 50% of what I put in. If you are not watching it each day and being smart about at least taking your original investment off the table it's not worth playing.

Does look like RXMD might have some life left. Just need another 80% rise and I'll get out at break even 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5307

Posted
Posted

What is ironic is I am sitting on free ALPP shares, but I’ve lost my ass on IBRX.  I made good money on the TSNP ride and got off before HMBL station.  But I am going to keep my 4000 shares of alpo because someday they’ll make me rich!

 

 Almost all my real money is in my company stock and in Blackrock’s balanced fund so this is play money but it was fun being up 20x at one point before it all crashed back down.  I’m curious how RCR is doing?  He became a paper millionaire for a while as I recall.

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Hammerin Hank

Hammerin Hank 1224

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 2/9/2022 at 8:46 PM, Hefeweizen said:

Any degenerates here still holding ALPP?  Holy shit that is a depressing stock to hold these days.  But I have definitely taught my teenage son that you can lose a lot in the stock market by telling him about that one... I think he may be an index fund guy for life now.

ALPP was my first venture into the otc world and I’m still holding my entire position 😬. I’m still slightly in the green, but I sure hope it makes another run. Lesson learned. Always take profits on the way up

Edited by Hammerin Hank
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