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Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

They need some solid movement into burning less cash and selling some drones.  Their burn rate is too high but otherwise I really like their strategy.  I’m going to continue holding.

My biggest concern if I was a shareholder is they are spreading themselves way too thin. they arent some major conglomerate with billions of dollars in the bank that can enter and exit businesses on a whim. Their only revenue comes from a handful of low margin businesses that lose money, and they also want to be a drone provider, an EV battery manufacturer, and then they purchased RCA electronics for some strange reason. What are they going to do well? And how are they going to fund it without just issuing more stock or taking on debt? If I had to guess, they will issue more stock.

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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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bluto

bluto 4980

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1 hour ago, Blotto said:

My biggest concern if I was a shareholder is they are spreading themselves way too thin. they arent some major conglomerate with billions of dollars in the bank that can enter and exit businesses on a whim. Their only revenue comes from a handful of low margin businesses that lose money, and they also want to be a drone provider, an EV battery manufacturer, and then they purchased RCA electronics for some strange reason. What are they going to do well? And how are they going to fund it without just issuing more stock or taking on debt? If I had to guess, they will issue more stock.

Build drones and protein bars made out of block chains? 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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2 hours ago, Blotto said:

 If I had to guess, they will issue more stock.

They had better prime the pump, if they think they can find chumps to take their stock dump.

They sold 8.6 million units (1 share + 1 warrant) for $24 million in Nov 2021, and 8.3 million shares  & 400,000 warrantsin Feb 2021 for $50 million. The Nov stock price was 2.80, February was prices at $6. 

Those investors have taken big write downs, good luck finding a third set of lemmings.

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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Here's an amusing 8-K from the land of stonks...

https://sec.report/Document/0000950170-22-001089/

Quote

On On February 10, 2022, Astra Space, Inc. (“Astra”) conducted a launch for National Aeronautics Space Administration (“NASA”). Astra experienced an issue during the launch that resulted in the payloads not being delivered to orbit. The launch was livestreamed through NASA Spaceflight. The video of this livestream is available on Astra’s Twitter account (@astra), Astra’s LinkedIn account (linkedin/company/astraspace) and its website at www.astraspace.com. Once available, Astra will furnish the transcript of the livestream of this launch.

Astra, along with its chief executive officer, Chris Kemp, and chief financial officer, Kelyn Brannon, are defendants in a lawsuit filed on February 9, 2022, in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York, alleging violations of certain securities laws. Astra believes the claims are without merit and Astra, Mr. Kemp and Ms. Brannon will vigorously defend against these claims.

We're a commercial space launch company. We just fucked up a launch and lost 4 satellites. Oh yeah also, our CEO and CFO are under investigation for securities violations. Thats about it. have a nice weekend!

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victory88

victory88 5755

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On 2/9/2022 at 11:10 AM, Harrison Stafford said:

UUUU has been stockpiling uranium and vanadium waiting to sell both at higher prices. UUUU is the largest producer of United States Uranium and operates the only licensed Uranium mill in the country. The company has no debt.  As commodity prices rise, UUUU is going to make a shit ton of money.  They're also branching into rare earths.  Currently, the US is 100% reliant on rare earth imports and 80% of that is from China.  The guv'ment thinks this arrangement no es bueno.  To that end, Energy Fuels' commercial-scale production of RE Carbonate from U.S.-mined natural monazite sand positions Energy Fuels as the only company in North America currently producing a monazite-derived, enhanced rare earth material, and the only company in North America producing an intermediate rare earth product ready for separation without further processing.  Am holding 33,000 shrs of UUUU @ $5.99.  Part of that position is 8000 shrs which i added within the past several weeks @ $7.85.  This is a volatile stock and the plan is to use the recently added 8000 shrs for trading.  Am not touching the 25,000 share core position as there's way too much upside.  The journey is just beginning for Energy Fuels. 

Damn Harrison, I told myself I wasn't going to invest anymore as I'm down big but I may say fuck it and toss in nice position if you feel that great about it.  Fuck it... one of these stocks has to hit right?  Better be UUUU....

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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Russia moves some troops further away from Ukraine, the market decides there is nothing to see here and jumps pre-open 

spacer.png

That is unless Putin is just head faking and fucking with everyone.

I may buy some more puts when the market opens higher ( yeah I know, that will certainly jinx my own portfolio - but you can go there other way)

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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image.png.d15c815b40e1a71a42dc798fb72c5104.png

Been holding Resonant since mid 2018 at a cost of ~$4.00. In January I tripled my shares at just under $1.50 to get my average cost down, since they were finally starting to get some royalty payments flowing and showing some signs of traction. Surprising that the acquiring company more than tripled the current price with their offer, but I'm not complaining after being underwater on this one for almost the entire time. Only 1500 shares total, but I'll take any positive I can get in this market. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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On 2/11/2022 at 5:03 PM, Blotto said:

Here's an amusing 8-K from the land of stonks...

https://sec.report/Document/0000950170-22-001089/

We're a commercial space launch company. We just fucked up a launch and lost 4 satellites. Oh yeah also, our CEO and CFO are under investigation for securities violations. Thats about it. have a nice weekend!

(B)Ad Astra 

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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hoping for a decent bump from HIMX after their earnings release this afternoon.

Check out the recent trends in revenue and net income. Current market cap is less than $2B

In Millions of USD                       
Income Statement Mar 2019 Jun 2019 Sep 2019 Dec 2019 Mar 2020 Jun 2020 Sep 2020 Dec 2020 Mar 2021 Jun 2021 Sep 2021
Total Revenues 163.3 169.3 164.3 174.9 184.6 187 239.9 275.8 309 365.3 420.9
Net Income (2.3) (5.2) (7.2) 1 3.3 1.4 8.5 34 66.9 108.9 118.7

Its rare to see a profitable semiconductor company with that kind of revenue growth trading for a PE of ~6, but this stock has always performed oddly. Been holding shares for years, but did pick up a chunk of $12c expiring Friday. Hopefully Russia can hold off invading until at least next week. 

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3390

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17 hours ago, victory88 said:

Damn Harrison, I told myself I wasn't going to invest anymore as I'm down big but I may say fuck it and toss in nice position if you feel that great about it.  Fuck it... one of these stocks has to hit right?  Better be UUUU....

Have looked at the charts for UUUU and IBRX and the price momentum oscillator I follow has turned up on both which should help. The small pharma and biotechs as a group have been pummeled to prices that are less than the cash/share on their books in many cases.  So, moves are more likely to come from company specific stories until money starts to flow back into these as a group.  As oversold as they are, that could happen at any time. Regarding UUUU, specifically, I think the stock will trade much higher once they get the rare earth purification set up on their site, but that probably isn’t going to happen in the next six months. So, the near-term moves in UUUU will be connected to the price of uranium.  I’m aware my credibility took a precipitous drop when IBRX ran to 45 and, today, has tumbled to 6.70.  Am going to do a better job of taking some money off the table when there’s a big run up (looking at you IBRX) by selling a little stock or writing calls out above a portion of the position.  What made IBRX tough to call was the company had (and still has) an enormous clinical trial pipeline and the stock had run without any news other than the merger of NantKwest and ImmunityBio.   It led me to believe the company had imminent news of a drug approval.  Next time, I’m taking some profits on the way up and, yes, I think there will be a next time.  Holding 33,000 shrs of UUUU @ $5.99, 27,800 shrs of IBRX @ $9.77, and 150,000 shrs of AMYZF @ .85.

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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39 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

 

Hey, what about my bets for an invasion?

Shit man, I'm just hoping for good news from HIMX this afternoon  so i can exit my calls tomorrow morning or the next day depending on the market. The stock was around $11.30 when I made that post earlier and its already breaching $12.00 now, so a lot of people are buying in anticipation. Probably means they will announce great numbers and the stock will thoroughly crap the bed, the floor, the walls etc.... That is the HIMX that I know.

Presumably you bought some SPY or QQQ puts? How much time did you give yourself? I made a couple grand last Friday with some timely same day SPY puts and  immediately plowed the entirety of the profits into some 2/18 $430 puts which are struggling now (-80%) that Putin is being a bitch. 

Edit - I'm a moron, apparently HIMX reports on the 17th in the AM, not this afternoon. Doh!

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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30 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 

Presumably you bought some SPY or QQQ puts? How much time did you give yourself? I made a couple grand last Friday with some timely same day SPY puts and  immediately plowed the entirety of the profits into some 2/18 $430 puts which are struggling now (-80%) that Putin is being a bitch. 

SPY, as that is the bulk of my investment so this is technically a hedge. I've been burned to many times doing day or two expiry gambles. 

I bought 2/23 $432 ,2/28 425, and 3/16 $425 puts and $$$ on day 1. But we will see what Vlad the Invader does over the next week or so.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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My new theory, that is mine, is Putin is manipulating the market by creating news to have the markets spike and drop. He is front running the need with options, and here is the tricky part, he takes all those profits to but more puts that will payout huge profits when the limited invasion of Ukraine begins.

AND that is how Russia is funding the cost of the war. (I should write a novel)

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

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3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

My new theory, that is mine, is Putin is manipulating the market by creating news to have the markets spike and drop. He is front running the need with options, and here is the tricky part, he takes all those profits to but more puts that will payout huge profits when the limited invasion of Ukraine begins.

AND that is how Russia is funding the cost of the war. (I should write a novel)

Buy the dip, Comrade. 

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KYHorn

KYHorn 17567

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AMYZF's DLA (Wenden Stockpile) proposal was not approved. Not ideal, though battery recycling is obviously their main upside. Would love to know more about why the DLA didn't want to continue with the project. 

They also said everything for their demonstration plant is on schedule (and used this to bury the lede a bit on the DLA news). 

https://americanmanganeseinc.com/american-manganese-provides-progress-update-on-demonstration-plant-for-lithium-ion-battery-recycling/

Spoiler
American Manganese Provides Progress Update on Demonstration Plant for Lithium-ion Battery Recycling

U.S. DLA Notifies American Manganese on Phase 2 Technical Proposal for Wenden Stockpile

Highlights:

  • Demonstration plant equipment is in position and nearing operational readiness
  • Lithium-ion battery cathode scrap feedstock received is representative of modern cathode materials used in electric vehicles
  • Demonstration project expected to produce bulk samples of recycled lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt products

American Manganese Inc. (“AMY” or the “Company“), a pioneer in advanced lithium-ion battery cathode recycling-upcycling, and its independent R&D contractor Kemetco Research Inc. (“Kemetco”) are pleased to provide a progress update on the demonstration plant project in Greater Vancouver, Canada that is nearing operational readiness status. 

Recycling equipment for the demonstration plant is in place, and the commissioning schedule is on pace, with remaining assembly work to include mounting tank reactors, connecting the ventilation system, and wiring power to equipment. Individual equipment testing is intended to ensure all systems and components are powered and water-tested according to operational requirements before full-scale processing of lithium-ion battery scrap. 

Approximately 3,500kg of lithium-ion battery cathode scrap has been received as initial feedstock for the 500 kg/day demonstration plant. The cathode scrap is a lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt composition that is representative of the modern cathode materials used in electric vehicle batteries and potential near-term feedstock supplies. The cathode scrap feedstock is to be used to validate the demonstration plant’s preliminary real-world continuous operating efficiencies and is expected to generate a significant amount of recycled lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt products for potential material qualification with interested third parties.

“I’m extremely pleased with the great progress in our demonstration plant,” said Larry Reaugh, President and CEO of American Manganese. “It’s a testament to everyone on our team working tirelessly to ensure the success of the project. Our structured approach from initial concept, lab testing, piloting, and modeling gives us confidence in our scaled-up selection of equipment and planned testing procedures.”

After completing project milestones for the initial U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) awarded project, American Manganese’s scoping study results indicated areas that would benefit from additional studies to achieve commercial-scale operation near the Wenden Stockpile material. As a result, and while American Manganese actively explored continued collaboration on advanced materials reclamation with the DLA, the DLA has notified American Manganese that they will not move forward with the Company’s Phase 2 Technical Proposal regarding the Wenden Stockpile.

Mr. Reaugh commented, “I’m disappointed that following the successful completion of our Strategic Materials grant, the DLA elected not to undertake our follow-on proposal.  We continue to see value in processing the Wenden Stockpile material and remain in ongoing discussions with the DLA on ways that AMY’s patented process can provide a potential domestic supply of manganese in the U.S.”

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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3 hours ago, KYHorn said:

AMYZF's DLA (Wenden Stockpile) proposal was not approved. Not ideal, though battery recycling is obviously their main upside. Would love to know more about why the DLA didn't want to continue with the project. 

They also said everything for their demonstration plant is on schedule (and used this to bury the lede a bit on the DLA news). 

https://americanmanganeseinc.com/american-manganese-provides-progress-update-on-demonstration-plant-for-lithium-ion-battery-recycling/

My guess is that their solution is not commercially competitive. They can convert that stockpile but not at an attractive cost. ANY has been farting around with this project for years and cant get it going. They would be better off focusing every nickle on commercializing their battery recycling process at this point, as they are falling behind better funded companies. 

On 2/15/2022 at 2:49 PM, Blotto said:

Shit man, I'm just hoping for good news from HIMX this afternoon  so i can exit my calls tomorrow morning or the next day depending on the market. The stock was around $11.30 when I made that post earlier and its already breaching $12.00 now, so a lot of people are buying in anticipation. Probably means they will announce great numbers and the stock will thoroughly crap the bed, the floor, the walls etc.... That is the HIMX that I know.

Predictably, HIMX reports very solid numbers ...

Q4 Revenue of $451.9M (+63.9% Y/Y)
Full year 2021 revenues were $1,547.1M, up 74.4% YoY
2021 Gross Margin of 48.5%, greatly increased from 24.9% in 2020

....and stock was down 20% at one point. My options will likely expire worthless, but Ive made about 50% of that back already buying more shares in the morning. I dont get this stock. Now trading for about 1X sales and 4X earnings. Such an outlier in the chip segment.

I guess there is some concern with them being HQ's in Taiwan, and they face foundry constraints with the rest of the industry, but fuck it seems like a bargain. Oh well, they pay dividends on an annual basis, so hopefully it will be fat this year. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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8 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

 

Hey Putin, what about Wally's money?

 

putin kiss GIF

Say it again 

My options portfolio only went up 84%, including my UUUU calls. I did sell 1/3 of my Tuesday expiry and that covered over 1/2 of the cost of that lot 

Overall I lost $64 today (not counting my 401k, that I won't look at until after 2/28)

 

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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On 2/17/2022 at 4:26 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Say it again 

My options portfolio only went up 84%, including my UUUU calls. I did sell 1/3 of my Tuesday expiry and that covered over 1/2 of the cost of that lot 

Overall I lost $64 today (not counting my 401k, that I won't look at until after 2/28)

https://giphy.com/gifs/mrw-kiss-girlfriend-xFoV6W4tpQfqj9IV6E

Hey I'm a dumbass, shut that whore mouth and let Putin have my money.

uuuu may be one of my last hopes

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3390

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4489333-ura-etf-reasonable-way-to-expose-yourself-to-uranium?mailingid=26807072&messageid=must_reads&serial=26807072.249146&utm_campaign=Must%2BRead%2BFebruary%2B23%2C%2B2022%2B(3rd%2Brow%2Bnative)&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads#:~:text=Written by,allocating into it.

If you own UUUU or are invested in uranium, read this article.  The 52 week high for UUUU was $11.39 on Nov. 12.  If the price of uranium spikes as it did in 2011, drinks are on me.  If the price spikes as it did in 2007, we'll all be drinking on my new yacht.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5416

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1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

Apparently, war is good for UUUU.

I think it's the possibility of scarcity for rare earths coupled with wishcasting for nuclear energy to make a rebound in Germany?  Whatever the reason, today bizarrely was very green.  I just looked and thought something was wrong with my eyes.

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