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Wally Fairway

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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Hi 
My name is Wally
and I have a problem

So with the pending announcement by the Fed, and me sitting on no SPY options - I decided to buy some same day and Friday expiry SPY puts (because I can't see them announcing something that turns the market around). My Friday $370 puts have been purchased and my today $370 puts are at strike price but haven't settled (yet).

So here's what I got (if the second set close)
20 9/21 $370 for $.07 - will sell them 5 at a time at $.10, $.20, .$50 and then hold to see what happens towards the close
10 9/23 $370 for $.065 - will sell the 2 at a time starting at $1.00 today, then look to the close to see if I should dump them 

c'mon - I fell like I'm hitting a 13 with the dealer holding a 7

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Hi 
My name is Wally
and I have a problem

So with the pending announcement by the Fed, and me sitting on no SPY options - I decided to buy some same day and Friday expiry SPY puts (because I can't see them announcing something that turns the market around). My Friday $370 puts have been purchased and my today $370 puts are at strike price but haven't settled (yet).

So here's what I got (if the second set close)
20 9/21 $370 for $.07 - will sell them 5 at a time at $.10, $.20, .$50 and then hold to see what happens towards the close
10 9/23 $370 for $.065 - will sell the 2 at a time starting at $1.00 today, then look to the close to see if I should dump them 

c'mon - I fell like I'm hitting a 13 with the dealer holding a 7

Sold 10 of the 9/21's  and I'm going to eat 10 of them - net for a $30 gain  15%
Sold 6 of the 9/23's and I'm holding 4 of them - cost $657, proceeds from sales $618, holding 4 currently at $326 (let's see what tomorrow brings)

So far it looks like a push, with upside potential (which means SPY will go up - investment opportunity for the RWIS)

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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On 9/21/2022 at 3:51 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Sold 10 of the 9/21's  and I'm going to eat 10 of them - net for a $30 gain  15%
Sold 6 of the 9/23's and I'm holding 4 of them - cost $657, proceeds from sales $618, holding 4 currently at $326 (let's see what tomorrow brings)

So far it looks like a push, with upside potential (which means SPY will go up - investment opportunity for the RWIS)

Closed out my last 4 puts - netted about a $1,100 gain.
Just less than if I'd have been dealt a blackjack at the tables; gambling is gambling @Incredulity

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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1 hour ago, HoustonHorn said:

So is AMYZF completely dead? @Harrison Stafford

Holy shit its tanked the last week.

https://americanmanganeseinc.com/recyclico-battery-materials-founder-president-and-ceo-larry-reaugh-passes-away/

Honestly not sure if this is good or bad for the future of the business (its clearly bad for Larry). Perhaps fresh leadership can get the company moving in a direction where its more than a glorified science project. Or it might stagnate for a bit trying to establish leadership. 

Their last report shows $17 million in cash, and a loss of $10 million over the last year as they ramp up  their battery recycling tech. Presumably they will need to raise money again to get to commercialization. 

They have zero revenues, nor have I seen any guidance from the company that indicates they are particularly close to revenue generation. I got in at $.50 in Jan 21, rode it all the way up, back down, and finally bailed in May at roughly break even. This is not an ideal market for companies that have negligible revenue.

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HoustonHorn

HoustonHorn 1063

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17 minutes ago, Blotto said:

https://americanmanganeseinc.com/recyclico-battery-materials-founder-president-and-ceo-larry-reaugh-passes-away/

Honestly not sure if this is good or bad for the future of the business (its clearly bad for Larry). Perhaps fresh leadership can get the company moving in a direction where its more than a glorified science project. Or it might stagnate for a bit trying to establish leadership. 

Their last report shows $17 million in cash, and a loss of $10 million over the last year as they ramp up  their battery recycling tech. Presumably they will need to raise money again to get to commercialization. 

They have zero revenues, nor have I seen any guidance from the company that indicates they are particularly close to revenue generation. I got in at $.50 in Jan 21, rode it all the way up, back down, and finally bailed in May at roughly break even. This is not an ideal market for companies that have negligible revenue.

I hate to laugh but that was pretty funny. I was also actually thinking that he may have been the right guy for the initial stages but they might want to go with someone else as they move to commercial operations. While the technology has always impressed me, I can't say I was blown away with his leadership, at least publicly.

Agreed with no revenue. That said, I was getting the impression that with the pilot plant producing and the recycled material achieving the promised quality standards that the pilot plant material could be used to generate some revenue while a full-scale facility was constructed (which was originally designated to be next door to the pilot plant). So hopefully they should have some revenue stream starting up soon. I don't know how much that will be from the pilot plant though. It sounded from a previous announcement that would begin in the 3rd quarter. So maybe we'll see something very soon. Would be nice.

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HoustonHorn

HoustonHorn 1063

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I'm also wondering if recent health issues may have been the reason the stock took a nose dive in the past couple weeks. Clearly the market doesn't like his passing, but I have always thought the CTO (now interim CEO) presented much better than Larry did. I guess the key is whether he has any business sense and ability to position them for commercial operations.

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3390

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4 hours ago, HoustonHorn said:

So is AMYZF completely dead? @Harrison Stafford

Holy shit its tanked the last week.

No.  I plan to hold the stock until they commercialize the plant or are bought out.  Seems like their tests of the pilot plant are going well.  With the death of the CEO, I would think it makes AMYZF more vulnerable to a buyout.  The market is in a sell everything mood as we test the June lows.  IMHO, the rest of this year will suck with a major improvement in 2023.  Holding 150,000 shares of AMYZF @ .85, holding 30,000 shares of UUUU @ 5.64 (uranium and rare earths play), 27.800 shares of IBRX @ 9.77 (cancer drug pipeline), and 32,900 shares of EOSE @ 2.44. (energy storage).  To be sure, these are all stonks.  They're speculative.  However, the best investors in the world have amassed their fortunes by holding a diverse portfolio of homerun candidates, with a game plan for change, and the patience to see it play out.  I like my chances.

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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Lets talk Hurricane Ian gambles. After Harvey, I made some decent short term trades on roofing and sheet rock companies which spiked up 30% or more over the next quarter. I remember when I was contemplating the trades, I looked back at behavior of those same types of companies during Katrina and their performance was pretty good. I'm considering the same gamble now, but matters are complicated by the cloudy economy and housing market, which has really been pounding some of these stocks. 

But doing some research, in an average year, there are roughly 1.6 million housing starts per year. While that number may be a challenge in 2022/23 with the economy, how much of the "slack" can be picked up by damage done by Ian. Ordinarily, Cat 1-2 storms probably dont move the needle, but this one seems like it could be hugely costly. I found the following graphic while trying to wrap my head around the number of potentially affected houses: https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/corelogic-slow-moving-hurricane-ian-threatens-more-than-1-million-homes-along-florida-gulf-with-forecasted-storm-surge-heights-up-to-10-feet/

Figure 1: Total Number and RCV ($ in Billions) of Residential Properties at Risk of Hurricane Ian Surge Damage

Obviously all these homes aren't going to need repair, but a good chunk of them will, especially wind/roof repairs. Those figures are only regarding storm surge damage, so presumably others would need roof repair, and the inland areas would have additional hundreds of thousands of homes with wind/storm damage as Ian traverses the state (and potentially also comes back and fucks with the Carolinas).  

My problem is I don't follow that industry and dont know shit about fuck about the dynamics of that market, best positioned companies, etc... BECN ( Beacon roofing ) is one company in particular I have an eye on. In the months following Harvey, it jumped from $45 to $63. It actually hasn't been hammered that badly recently, so maybe the rebound wont be as significant. Then there are lots of other building supply companies like GMS, EXP, ROCK down around 50% from highs, probably in large part to poor outlook on new housing starts. Anybody here actually work in those markets and want to chime in on whether there could be any validity to my thinking? 

My only gamble so far was a small play earlier in the week buying puts on insurance company (HCI) which has a disproportionate exposure to FL.  There's very little liquidity in those options, so while the stock is down 18% over the last week, I'm not sure that trade will be that profitable due to the short amount of time I have to get out (Oct 21 exp date). 

EDIT - one last data point:

Quote

CoreLogic, a property data analytics firm, reported Wednesday that Ian promises to be a “history-making hurricane.” Jon Schneyer, senior catastrophe response manager, wrote that 7.2 million Florida homes with a reconstruction value of $1.6 trillion lie in the hurricane’s projected path.

if 1 in 10 need roof repairs, sheet rock repairs etc... thats almost 50% of annual housing starts. Obviously those repairs are spread out over a couple of years. 

Edited by Blotto
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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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6 hours ago, veritas aequitas said:

Scaled into 10,000 BJDX this week avg cost .82 and sold 100 2.5 10/21 naked puts on CLNN for .80

giphy.gif

I sold a decent chunk of CLNN Sept 16 2.5 puts for $.90 last month a couple of weeks before expiration date, but not 100. Planning on jumping in again on Monday. There's a shit ton of premium in those options right now. 

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veritas aequitas

veritas aequitas 444

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4 minutes ago, Blotto said:

giphy.gif

I sold a decent chunk of CLNN Sept 16 2.5 puts for $.90 last month a couple of weeks before expiration date, but not 100. Planning on jumping in again on Monday. There's a shit ton of premium in those options right now. 

Yeah I scaled up with my profits on previous plays. I tried for fills at .90 and .85 on these but couldn't get fills so took the .80. That IV makes for nice premiums.

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 597

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On 9/30/2022 at 10:57 AM, Seger78 said:

Just bought another 15K shares of AMYZF at 0.22. May be time for an intervention

AMY no longer showing up on my TD app... I can search for it but what I was holding looks like it just got switched over to a random number and it's sitting at 0

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

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On 7/19/2022 at 1:22 PM, Humble Beast said:

Bot a good amount of Twtr today. Have read a couple of good legal analyses that feel strongly Elon will be held to 54.20 buyout price. 
 

Trial in October. Would be 37% gain from current price. 

Looks like rule of law is still a thing. Good.

$twtr halted. 
 

D3-E697-C7-7-EA6-4-F4-D-9-BC9-CC0-B7374-

 

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31 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Looking to move the money I had in Twtr into some US NG plays. The arb between US prices and European will close over time, and higher than Us prices are now. I’ve seen DVN and EQT mentioned as some larger cap options. Anyone know of any smaller cap #stonk ones worth a few chips? 

@Porterhouse

I’m not a big Devon fan. I think EQT and Comstock are better options. Having said that I don’t buy equities as much as I buy commodities directly, so I don’t know if this is a good entry point in either.  I wouldn’t buy any oil and gas small caps because A&D / M&A is dead in the business at present, and as a result small cap E&Ps are unnecessarily risky despite higher prices  

I agree with your sentiment on gas. May take a few years to get there, but long term it’ll trend closer to Europe and I see little downside below $5 at present. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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15 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Need this fixed... at .37 going to make my stonk portfolio look just a little bit better versus looking at a total loss right now

The price seems to be updating for closing prices, so today showing $0.3584, but it is trading down at $0.3507 if you drill into  the detail information

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KYHorn

KYHorn 17567

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On 10/5/2022 at 9:38 AM, Humble Beast said:

Looking to move the money I had in Twtr into some US NG plays. The arb between US prices and European will close over time, and higher than Us prices are now. I’ve seen DVN and EQT mentioned as some larger cap options. Anyone know of any smaller cap #stonk ones worth a few chips? 

@Porterhouse

 

On 10/5/2022 at 10:14 AM, Porterhouse said:

I’m not a big Devon fan. I think EQT and Comstock are better options. Having said that I don’t buy equities as much as I buy commodities directly, so I don’t know if this is a good entry point in either.  I wouldn’t buy any oil and gas small caps because A&D / M&A is dead in the business at present, and as a result small cap E&Ps are unnecessarily risky despite higher prices  

I agree with your sentiment on gas. May take a few years to get there, but long term it’ll trend closer to Europe and I see little downside below $5 at present. 

When I was in college, I bought Cheniere Energy (LNG) back when it was around $2.00. Sold everything 5 years ago at around $50 for a down payment on my house. It was a fun run up and would've been even more fun these past 5 years if my wife had just let us be homeless. 

Anyway, it holds a place in my heart, so you should buy it. 

Edited by KYHorn
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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On 10/5/2022 at 10:08 AM, ZB'Tejas said:

Need this fixed... at .37 going to make my stonk portfolio look just a little bit better versus looking at a total loss right now

Schwab has fixed their shit today, unfortunately Recyliclo is below $.33....I guess that new name isn't getting much hype or value (yet)

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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13 hours ago, veritas aequitas said:

Looking like I will be selling calls on CLNN next month. Didn't go as heavy as I did on CLNN but sold a chunk of TCDA $5 puts for 10/21 opex today for $1.10

I dodged the bullet on CLNN as it shit before open on Monday when i was planning on jumping in. I've also been eye-fucking TCDA for a couple of weeks now, havent jumped in yet. We must screen for option selling opportunities in a similar fashion. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Sorry I’m down to 100 shares just so I can pretend to play.

 

I did sell all my PBR ahead of the runoff in Brazil.  Collected a 25 percent yield in a few months.  It’s just too risky until Lula wins the runoff.

Now I'm feeling like a big time baller with my 200 shares

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5416

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What IBRX doing?

 

I have added more shares as it dives below 5 today.

 

Also bought some more AMYZF.  
 

I’m living like it’s 2020 again.  Maybe I’ll go scrape some HMBL off the pavement and mix it in with ALPP.

 

 The best I did on any of those crazy ones was XMET and FPVD.  Lunacy.

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