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Surly #Stonks

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
in Business and Markets

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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5525

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14 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Sold at 43 cents, will re enter at around 30.  Amy.  That slut.

We should all have a guess when Hefe is going to rebuy some Amy - I say this week, because that announcement really was just a pump & dump event; and I congratulate El Hefe for figuring it out.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5307

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3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

We should all have a guess when Hefe is going to rebuy some Amy - I say this week, because that announcement really was just a pump & dump event; and I congratulate El Hefe for figuring it out.

Stonk life baby.  If it goes to 30 cents I’ll buy another 5000 shares.  I can’t put baller money in any of this.  That goes to pay college tuition.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

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16 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Stonk life baby.  If it goes to 30 cents I’ll buy another 5000 shares.  I can’t put baller money in any of this.  That goes to pay college tuition.

Put all the tuition money in it at $.30, fly that rocket to the moon lambos, then sell the moon lambo for all 4 years of tuition.    

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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Not sure where to post this but Instant Brands (owner of Instant Pot and Pyrex) failed for bankruptcy protection. https://www.reuters.com/business/pyrex-kitchenware-maker-files-chapter-11-bankruptcy-2023-06-12/

Two years ago, they borrowed $500m, immediately gave half of that to their investors as a dividend , and today they can’t make the debt payments.  https://www.yahoo.com/now/instant-brands-holdings-inc-moodys-201206894.html
 

Why worry about doing well in the future when you can pull that money out today.

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

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Opportunistic play on Progress Software(PRGS). Wish I would have been paying attention before this afternoon, but in for some action on  7/21 $55p

https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/15/moveit-clop-mass-hacks-banks-universities/

I doubt I will hold too long, another similar drop tomorrow or Friday should be good for a quick double up. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

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14 hours ago, dogfarts said:


More importantly, what’s up with the GERN  any message board on Yahoo?

I tried to read it and holy fuck. Texags makes more sense.

Yahoo comments/conversations in general are the festering asshole of the internet. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

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3 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

image.gif.817efa0b460353664c72272f031d72d7.gif
Yes.  Someone’s confident EOSE will get that loan and the ride begins in earnest

Also EOSE was added to the Russell 3000 effective this week, which means some index driven buying. 

https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru3000_additions_final_20230623.pdf

If the DOE deal is announced soon I would expect another spike, but if it is delayed they will have to continue to add debt or dilute. they are burning anywhere from 30-50M a quarter and issuing debt these days is getting expensive.

 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

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6 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Maybe, it’s sell the news and there’s a retracement.  Maybe, it goes to $10 (where there’s serious resistance).  Over the next several years, I think the sp hits $20 - $30.    EOSE +.28 to 5.31.

All this attention given to EOSE motivated me to take a closer look. I come away with a different take here. I'm probably much more optimistic short term (because stonks), more pessimistic long term. Due to market insanity and the momentum trading that often affects penny/micro-cap stocks, it wouldn't shock me to see EOSE at $20-30 within a year if they get the DOE Loan (see HMBL, ALPP, IBRX, etc...). It also wouldn't surprise me for EOSE to be bankrupt or acquired for IP within 3-4 years. Like most SPACs, their financials are a complete clusterfuck.  I doubt whether they can survive in an environment where interest rates are where they are today. But who knows what will happen with interest rates, and I guess they can always refinance in the future. 

Assuming a $250M DOE loan (its not free money, its a loan), their total debt should be in the neighborhood of $500M dollars. Their TTM revenue is $23M and cash flow from operations during that period was -$185M. They could blow through that DOE loan and be looking for more in 12-18 months. I don't care how pretty their backlog looks on a power point slide, if they can't ship a fuck ton of product at a profit, they will be swallowed up by their debt. Strangely they didn't issue any specific Q2 or FY23 guidance in their Q1 PR/earnings call, so I don't know what to make of that. I do know that for FY 22 they predicted $50M in revenue and limped in with $18M. They also projected being cash flow positive in 2H of 23 which is a pipedream. Their execution has historically been dogshit against their own projections and they are a debt issuing, stock diluting machine. Exploding their float from 56M to 123M in one year seems suboptimal. 

image.png.e7c59e2dc1ca15fa569ee06f38f43d04.png

But fuck, it does seem like a fantastic stock to trade. I'm fairly certain that the recent run was kickstarted as funds had to buy EOSE when it was added to the Russell, I'm just not sure how that works and if you can assume all funds are fully loaded now and that buying will taper off. If I'm gonna stonk, I'm gonna stonk with options. The options IV for EOSE fluctuates like crazy, that's for sure. Also, check out the recent growth in options volume and open interest. At the beginning of the year, daily options volume was in the hundreds and OI was 20-30K. Now daily options volume is 10K-60K and OI is 450K. That's crazy for a stock with a $500M market cap. Mix in a healthy short interest as well to spice things up. This seems like a stonk getting ready to STONK! 
 

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

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The short squeeze on Carvana is something else. On May 1, the stock closed just under $7 and its now over $40.

image.png.fc4c95db4eb26681f159c80ab9b6f3bd.png

Used car prices are falling, their revenues are falling (last qtr was down 25% YoY), they are hemorrhaging cash, and loaded to the tits with debt. These kind of runs usually end badly, but who knows when the music stops. Puts be expensive, but for good reason. 

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