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Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
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Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

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Blotto

Blotto 23460

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Future Fuels is a producer of primarily biodiesel fuels with some  specialty  chemicals. They recently announced a special dividend of $2.50 for shareholders of record on 3/26. Prior to announcing the special dividend at the beginning of the week, the stock was trading around $5.75, meaning the price jumped about 50% of the expected dividend amount.  Doing a little research, what caught my eye is that this will be 3rd significant special dividend since 2020( $3 in 2020, $2.50 in 2021, and now $2.50 in 24 for a total of $8). They also consistently paid out a quarterly div of $.06($0.24 annually). Usually when you see these types of special one time dividends, its from companies that had huge unexpected revenue windfalls, but while there is some variance in FF's revenue is not 5X or anything crazy. They've been doing about $200M-$400M in revenue every year for 10 years now. Their revenue comes from the sale of products as well as through the sale of RIN Credits for generation of a renewable fuels. Here's the last 4 years. You have to go back to 2016 for the  next previous special dividend ($2.3). 

image.png.c1ebcb09722bddc6250c6f83cdaa80bc.png

So assuming the stock price stays relatively stable between now and the special dividend, I presume you can expect the stock to trade at around $4.50 after the special dividend, and at that point you will  also presumably be receiving $0.06 in quarterly dividends for a yield of ~5%. Risks would seem to be that their revenue collapses or the government ceases renewable fuel  credits( have been around since early 2000's). Otherwise they seem committed to returning cash to shareholders through dividends. They also announced a share buyback program of $25M this week as well. This game seems like its been going on for awhile and the share price is at the lower end of the cycle. Also at $4.5 a share, the company would have a market cap of ~$200M and still should have $100M in cash on its books, in addition to its positive cash flow business.

image.png.16e587c5dd5ca443b55cf7de54e1c579.png

 

But with all this talk of actual net income and dividends, why the hell is this in the stonk thread? Here's another angle.... $5P options (4/19 exp) can be had for  $0.05. So in addition to the shares I bought at $7, I grabbed 20 contracts of those puts as well. Assuming the price of FF doesn't noticeably appreciate between now and the special dividend payout of $2.50, well then the price of FF should be ~$4.50 on 3/27 which would be a 10X return on those options. If the price of FF is above $7.50at the time of the dividend the options will be worthless and I'm out $100, but  I will have profited significantly more on the shares. And if for some reason the stock heads down between now and the special dividend, it wont take much for the return on those puts to really spike at $0.05 a contract. 

All that being said, I dont know shit about the company so I'm ready to lose my ass! Hence the post in this thread. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5532

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whoa, whoa, whoa - this is actual due diligence and analysis. Super impressive, bud don't they adjust the options strike to take into account dividends paid during the term? I thought I had that happen with some COST calls I had a few years ago, it was awhile ago but that is in some dusty corner of my remaining memory.

 

Reference - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/adjustedexerciseprice.asp

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Blotto

Blotto 23460

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50 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

whoa, whoa, whoa - this is actual due diligence and analysis. Super impressive, bud don't they adjust the options strike to take into account dividends paid during the term? I thought I had that happen with some COST calls I had a few years ago, it was awhile ago but that is in some dusty corner of my remaining memory.

 

Reference - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/adjustedexerciseprice.asp

Fucking classic, I never make options plays centered around special dividend payouts, I just thought that quarterly dividends don't affect strike prices ..."So why should this be any different." Now that you mentioned it, it appears you may be correct: 

Quote

If a stock pays out an extraordinary (special) cash dividend, that is not paid out on a quarterly or another regular basis, then the strike may also be reduced by the dividend amount, but only if the cash dividend amount exceeds $12.50 per contract.

I would assume that a $2.50 share dividend equates to $250 per contract so these strikes will be adjusted. From the SEC website I found a discussion of when strikes are adjusted due to special dividends. Its not exactly cut and dried and is up to the OCC on a case by case basis. If a company has a stated policy about returning cash to shareholders (even in excess of regular dividends) sometimes they do not adjust the strike. I guess it would depend on if FF has a standing policy as this is their third special dividend since 2001.  But my guess is I'm already fucked out of my first $100 on this trade. Starting out hot!

Actually I see that there are other idiots out there like myself, and there were ~350 contracts traded today between $.05 and $.20 (????). I'll do some research over the weekend and if it looks like the strike will be adjusted on 3/26, that gives me a little over a week to pawn them off on someone else. I'll gladly sell them on Monday for $0.10+

image.png.be1f54a10c78007962abe1a55d7385c8.png

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5532

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13 hours ago, Blotto said:

Fucking classic, I never make options plays centered around special dividend payouts, I just thought that quarterly dividends don't affect strike prices ..."So why should this be any different." Now that you mentioned it, it appears you may be correct

IMO you shouldn't worry about the $100, this FF opportunity looks pretty solid. I may take a small position and see how it plays out, as I have some found money coming in that I found in the couch (aka Gern) that has to go somewhere.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5532

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2 hours ago, Redneck Mutha said:

My brain, trying to wrap itself around options for the 100th time:

Homer Simpson Thinking GIF

Lot of information on Investopedia, they have basic explanations, and pages  that discuss different types and aspects.

Buying puts and calls is fairly straight forward, getting into Greeks, spreads, etc can get pretty technical. And selling options can expensive;  you can only lose what you spend on buying them, but selling is a while different risk profile.

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3327

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image.gif.dfcbb6c49c2a17fe7ce3dc146c047792.gif

GERN’s cash position is pretty good.  Can’t rule out a dilution, but I think it seems unnecessary unless the share price takes off and they sell stock into that bump.   There’s also the possibility they might try another drug development program…..hopefully, more timely in its success than Imetelstat.  Having said that, if Big Pharma is smart, there’s a buy out.  

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5307

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On 3/14/2024 at 1:50 PM, TonyTexas said:

Gern trading at 3.15 AH

I bailed on most of my position at 3.25.  When they do an additional offering at 3 bucks that 75 percent profit looks good to me.  I’ll be back looking for another one but I learned my lesson on getting greedy with some of these.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5532

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@Harrison Stafford - Holtec Intl is approved for a $1.5 billion loan from DOE to reopen the Palisades nuke plant. Not directly impacting 4U, but a move in the right direction for Uranium. I'm not saying it is an old facility, but original construction started in March 1967, and it was initially commissioned in December 1971; decommissioning was "completed" in May 2022, obv this is being reversed however I do not see a targeted date for restarting (I'm sure there are plenty of legal, licensing, permitting and testing to last for a couple of years)

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2024/03/palisades-gets-15b-federal-loan-for-historic-nuclear-restart.html

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3327

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@Wally Fairway Earlier this week, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm made public that she was encouraging Congress to ban uranium supplies from Russia. Granholm said that she would allow, if legislators would go there, for more funding for the domestic development of fuel for "next generation" nuclear reactors. The House has already passed a bill banning Russian uranium. The bill has been caught up in the Senate. It's incredible to even consider that we as a nation might still be importing uranium from Russia


As I posted several months ago, in late December, Energy Fuels (UUUU) announced that is has commenced production at three mines. During the third-quarter earnings' discussion, management indicated that it was hiring personnel and upgrading facilities at four additional mines with plans to restart production at one or two of the mines in 2024.  Management also indicated that it plans to produce 1,000,000 lbs of uranium in 2024 and stockpile the uranium.  

UUUU’s decision to ramp-up uranium production was driven by strengthening spot and long-term uranium prices, increased buying interest from U.S. nuclear utilities, U.S. and global government policies supporting nuclear energy to address global climate change, and the need to reduce U.S. reliance on Russian and Russian-controlled uranium and nuclear fuel. 
 

Stay the course.

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3327

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2 hours ago, nycHorn said:


They reporting today?

I think RVPH announces earnings after the bell, but as a development stage company, I doubt they have any.  RVPH should complete phase 3 clinical trial data for their drug, Brilaroxazine (for the treatment of schizophrenia), later this year.  I think they end up partnering with BIg Pharma.  A buyout is also possible.  

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Blotto

Blotto 23460

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Another stonk I jumped on recently is  Evolv Technologies(EVLV), which I bought a few weeks ago after a big dip in price. If you're not familiar, they make weapons detection scanners/systems. Their solution uses AI to continually refine the accuracy of their scanners system wide, meaning use of their products mandates a subscription with every sale. So their business model touts AI + recurring/subscription revenue which checks a couple of the boxes that the market seems to be currently rewarding. It also addresses a major societal issue.

I'll spoiler the rest to avoid cluttering the page, but a near term catalyst popped up today. 

Spoiler

Full disclosure, there is a fair amount of debate about whether the system works as advertised resulting in a fair amount of volatility. The initial criticisms were probably grounded in truth,  but their software is theoretically always improving as it scans more and more people and SHOULD be getting better. Revenue is ramping fast and they are getting some high profile customers (for example 10 of 30 MLB stadiums this opening day) so they seem to be making a compelling argument to the people making the decisions. 

Revenue:

image.png.43210ab2ccf46b44d364248bc718a4bc.png

A metal detector alerts if someone walks through with  phones, keys etc... which then requires a manual pat down which is time/personnel consuming. The advantage to Evolv vs traditional metal detectors is that it uses imaging and AI to alert only if the system thinks a weapon has passed through the scanner, and it shows the operator where on the body the weapon is located. The result is far greater throughput of people which alleviates bottlenecks in stadiums, schools, subways, airports, etc... I doubt that violence is going to slow down in this country, so this could be a fast grower IF the system actually works.

Today's price spike was due to a NYC press conference indicating they will be implementing a new system to try to stem the violence in their subway. They didn't specifically mention Evolv, but they have been evaluating Evolv for 18 months, so they must feel the data is getting to where they are comfortable with the results. Also, there were Evolv scanners right next to the podium which seems like a decent hint. 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/nyc-gun-scanners-subway-system-pilot/story?id=108610973

image.png.affd5b9ba7963a9b824ca820c943c2f1.png

Right now NYC surged 1000 cops and has  750 National Guardsmen patrolling the subways, so they are probably willing to spend some money to get back to normalcy. I listened to one analyst earlier who estimated the annual value of the NYC deal should be $20M+ due to the high number of entry points to their sprawling subway. If Evolv can get some more cities onboard I would think the price could easily reach multiples of where it is today. 

I bought some '26 leaps today in addition to the shares I picked up a couple of weeks ago. You can look at the premiums and figure out the break even prices after 2 years...they aren't that high considering where the stock was trading in August and revenues growing nicely. The price may fall back some more in the next week or two, but IF the NYC deal gets officially announced, I would guess the price spikes back again. May be one to keep an eye on.

Their system may not be perfect, but I'm guessing its better than this 

 

 

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3327

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Harrison’s Biotech Stocks at the end of Q1.

IBRX (ImmunityBio)    PDUFA date is April 23rd.    Hoping for FDA approval of ImmunityBio’s bladder cancer drug, Anktiva.  If approved, the company will go it alone or partner with Big Pharma.  I don’t think a buyout is in the cards, but would gladly be proven wrong.  27,800 shares at avg cost of $9.77
 

GERN (Geron)     AdCom voted 12-2 to recommend the approval of GERN’s drug, Imetelstat, to the FDA.  PDUFA date is June 16th.  If approved, I believe there will be a buyout.  Having said that, GERN had $375,000 in cash as of December 31st and has indicated a willingness to go it alone.  But, IMO, they will, in time, be bought.  MDS is a large indication and will be too tempting for Big Pharma.  6,000 shares at avg cost of $3.19.  *Have been holding this since 2013 & good shit needs to happen.  


RVPH (Reviva Pharmaceuticals)   Phase 3 of their drug for schizophrenia, Brilaroxazine, is to be completed in Q4 of this year.  I think Big Pharma partners with them before FDA approval in 2025.  15,000 shares at avg cost of $6.87.  

 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5307

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2 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

I think the price of uranium has bottomed in the 80s and we’ll see $120 an ounce before the end of the year.

I took my gains in 4U off the table.  I just don’t see their price tracking well enough  with uranium to stick with it.
 

I am awaiting a decent entry point in GERN, but holding IBRX for now.

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woohorn

woohorn 1131

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Weed is stonk, right?

Where y'all at on stuff like (in order is stonk-ness?) -

$CNBS
$IIPR
$TSNDF
$CURLF
$GTBIF
$CNTMF
$JUSHF

Are things like Schedule III, SafeBanking, PA use, Germany opening up, etc. already "baked" in?

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Blotto

Blotto 23460

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42 minutes ago, woohorn said:

Weed is stonk, right?

Where y'all at on stuff like (in order is stonk-ness?) -

$CNBS
$IIPR
$TSNDF
$CURLF
$GTBIF
$CNTMF
$JUSHF

Are things like Schedule III, SafeBanking, PA use, Germany opening up, etc. already "baked" in?
 

I've owned one weed stock (Trulieve- TCNNF) since 2020. My cost is $17 and in that time it spiked to ~$40-45 and has been under $4 early this year. Its been a fucking crapshoot tied to legalization. If legalization at the federal level appears to be happening, everything will likely spike again and I'm getting the fuck out (hopefully with a profit). Just like Canada, there is a hefty oversupply problem in the US. I partake myself and have visited more than a few dispensaries. The biggest problem is very little brand differentiation or brand loyalty. There will have to be massive consolidation before there can be profitability, and fuck if I can pick the winners or losers in this market. 

Edited to add - comments above largely reference companies involved in the supply side. The picture may be rosier on the retail side or the support industries. My guess is that the REIT in your list above (IIPR) would be the best bet, but even they might struggle with a consolidation if their clients start falling by the wayside. 

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3327

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Ford Motor announced today it had delayed the planned launches of three-row EVs in Canada and its next-generation electric pickup truck built in Tennessee as the slowdown in EV demand globally forces automakers to revise production plans.   Ford said separately it was boosting hybrid electric vehicle offerings.  The public acceptance of EV’s has slowed as hybrids are more popular than pure EV’s.  Not great news for AMYZF (RecycLiCo) which needs EV demand to increase to make battery materials go up in value.  There’s nothing wrong with AMYZF’s science or process and AMY’s joint venture with Zenith Chemical to build a battery recycling plant in Taiwan is well positioned with China’s push to EV’s.  AMYZF has $20 million in cash and no debt.  Just have to wait for EV demand to increase.

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Paper_jam

Paper_jam 831

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I don't know if this is the best place to ask, but I'm looking for a simple and free way to look up historical closing prices for certain stocks as of certain dates. I thought this would be easy but a lot of the charts I'm looking at adjust their historical data to account for stock splits and other events in ways that confuse me.

Just for example, based on media reports from the time, I know that in late 2018, one share of GE stock was trading in the $6-8 range. But every stock chart I look at now shows that during that period it was trading at~$35, give or take $5. Why don't the charts match the prices that the stock was actually trading for? And where can I find the correct historical closing prices?  Thanks.

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El Pollo Loco

El Pollo Loco 6

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On 4/4/2024 at 9:21 PM, Harrison Stafford said:

Ford Motor announced today it had delayed the planned launches of three-row EVs in Canada and its next-generation electric pickup truck built in Tennessee as the slowdown in EV demand globally forces automakers to revise production plans.   Ford said separately it was boosting hybrid electric vehicle offerings.  The public acceptance of EV’s has slowed as hybrids are more popular than pure EV’s.  Not great news for AMYZF (RecycLiCo) which needs EV demand to increase to make battery materials go up in value.  There’s nothing wrong with AMYZF’s science or process and AMY’s joint venture with Zenith Chemical to build a battery recycling plant in Taiwan is well positioned with China’s push to EV’s.  AMYZF has $20 million in cash and no debt.  Just have to wait for EV demand to increase.

I think there's going to be a "big" announcement soon regarding EV infrastructure. Most of the major auto retailers just got approved to use Telsa charging stations, meanwhile they're all complaining about EV sales and Telsa isn't saying shit about their battery sales (which they projected to be greater than EV for 2024 in January),  CATL just got approval to license their battery manufacturing in the US, and Shell announced they're moving some gas stations to EV two weeks ago, etc. 

It just became a "meme" stock on reddit this past week but I've been watching kulr since battery's started exploding last summer. I was only so-so on their safe case product (which just got approval for battery shipping at all stages of the life cycle), but then they just launched  KULR 1 in January which incorporates battery safety tech that only they have due to exclusive licensing and manufacturing agreements with NASA, FAA, and DOE related to battery safety components they've incorporated into kulr 1.  

I'm long on them regardless of earnings this Friday for the battery transport and space market. They've got undisclosed agreements with SPACE X and Blue Origin...they've been NASA's battery safety company for a long time before they went public. 

 https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/21/opinions/e-bike-e-scooter-battery-fires-pauley/index.html

 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23460

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50 minutes ago, Paper_jam said:

I don't know if this is the best place to ask, but I'm looking for a simple and free way to look up historical closing prices for certain stocks as of certain dates. I thought this would be easy but a lot of the charts I'm looking at adjust their historical data to account for stock splits and other events in ways that confuse me.

Just for example, based on media reports from the time, I know that in late 2018, one share of GE stock was trading in the $6-8 range. But every stock chart I look at now shows that during that period it was trading at~$35, give or take $5. Why don't the charts match the prices that the stock was actually trading for? And where can I find the correct historical closing prices?  Thanks.

Does this look accurate? 

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GE/general-electric/stock-splits

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