Jump to content

Surly #Stonks

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 9.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

Haven't mentioned it because didn't need naysayers because it is stupid, but I'm a med student doing this almost purely on my student loans while they're at zero interest. I've made +$20k since Decemb

Hank_Hill
Hank_Hill

The real treasure is the friends we make along the way

BradInATX
BradInATX

As long as 700% APR payday loans exist, you can fuck right off with "protecting people from themselves".

Posted Images

RCRanger03

RCRanger03 1049

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Sabalo said:

From 0.065 to Tree Fiddy! 

Pretty Good Season 9 GIF by Curb Your Enthusiasm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606698/000144586620000961/alpp_10q.htm

Net Profitability sons of bitches, in an COVID19 induced Economic collapse. Training a new hire right now, somebody look at the goodies. I'll do a deep dive tonight.

Edited by RCRanger03
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23428

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, RCRanger03 said:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606698/000144586620000961/alpp_10q.htm

Net Profitability sons of bitches, in an COVID19 induced Economic collapse. Training a new hire right now, somebody look at the goodies. I'll do a deep dive tonight.

Looks to me that the net profitability was due to some accounting provisions (change in value of derivative liability, whatever the fuck that is), but their loss from operations ($1.1 million) is about 3X what it was a year ago. Levered up to thier tits debt wise, and to be honest I can find no clear direction for the business. They own some HVAC/sheet metal companies, a couple of contract manufacturers, and seem to be involved in some blockchain boondoggle. Having spent time in a past life selling design software into the commercial HVAC market, its not a place you want to be when commercial construction slows down.

All that being said, at $0.06 per share your upside is higher than the downside, as evidenced by the price of $.31 within the last year. But as fudgenuggets alluded to above, they appear to need cash in a bad way as they lost $1M from operations in this quarter alone, and have $1M+ in interest expenses annually. 

Edited by Blotto
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spoosner

Spoosner 86

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Blotto said:

(change in value of derivative liability, whatever the fuck that is)

I won't go into detail, but yea, that doesn't mean much at all to a company like this.  Changes in the fair value of derivatives flow through earnings (unless certain accounting criteria are met and elected).  All this means is that they're on the wrong side of a derivative contract, but less so than last quarter.  If it had moved into an asset position they might be able to cash out of it if needed, but it being liability just means now they'd have to pay less to exit it than before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NateHitch

NateHitch 1282

Posted
Posted
anyone else in on MARK? Earnings report coming after hours and word is they are announcing partnerships with Wynn Hotels and some others to provide thermal imaging.
I have some July calls I bought back in June that I was feeling pretty good about but now they're completely shot. Hope some good news comes out in the next week or so
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19146

Posted
Posted

ALPP likes to buy a company, sell its building and lease the same building.  Some of their debt is also getting 10% interest or something stupid like that.  They said in the 10-Q they are going to issue more stock to keep the lights on a bit longer, hopefully there's a big pump before the dump when they issue the shares.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

Posted
  • Author
Posted

UAVS jumped almost $.50 (40%) at open - anyone still in this one?

New CEO sent out a letter to shareholders
 

Quote
July 07, 2020 08:30 ET | Source: AgEagle Aerial Systems, Inc.
 
 

NEODESHA, Kan., July 07, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- J. Michael Drozd, new Chief Executive Officer of AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. (NYSE American: UAVS), an industry leading provider of unmanned aerial vehicles and advanced aerial imagery, data collection and analytics solutions, today issued a letter to the Company’s shareholders commenting on the Company’s vision, defined growth strategy and key developments which have occurred since he assumed the helm of AgEagle on May 18, 2020. Drozd stated:

“I’d like to begin by sharing how pleased and privileged I am to have been selected by the Board to help lead AgEagle through its next critical phase of innovation and evolution. Since my first day on the job, I have immersed myself in meeting with our talented team; fully understanding the depth and capabilities of our software development and manufacturing operations; carefully evaluating our core strengths and many market opportunities; and attaining meaningful clarity into the dynamic, high growth company we are actively engaged in building. This has been and will undoubtedly remain an exciting and ongoing process. 

“After an extensive evaluation process, I firmly believe that AgEagle has what it takes to become one of the leading, most trusted commercial drone technology, services and solutions providers globally.  To achieve that aim, we are committing to a highly focused growth strategy centered on three primary industry sectors:

  • U.S.-based drone hardware and subcomponent design, manufacturing, assembling and testing;
  • Drone package delivery services; and
  • Hemp cultivation registration, oversight, compliance, reporting and data analytics software solutions for government and commercial customers.

Drone Hardware and Drone Delivery

“With a goal of materially increasing our manufacturing capacity and proficiencies, AgEagle has finalized its decision to expand our drone-related operations to Wichita, Kansas. With that goal in view, we have been working in close collaboration with a Wichita-based commercial real estate firm to identify properties that will best suit our current manufacturing, assembly, testing and office space requirements, while also providing ample space to allow for planned expansion as our Company grows. In this regard, we have narrowed down our list of possible properties and expect to make a final decision within the next couple of weeks.  Once that decision is made, we will announce all of the relevant details about our new Wichita home and the anticipated official date of our move. 

“Additionally, we have been actively pursuing opportunities to manufacture and assemble drone-related hardware and subcomponents for a wide range of other prospective new customers – companies which value the fact that we are a U.S.-based manufacturer and their products will be ‘Made in America.’

“In the foreseeable future, we believe being an American drone manufacturer with proven engineering expertise will go a long way in winning new business opportunities, particularly with those customers which may be reluctant to rely on Chinese manufacturers due to the much touted supply chain challenges and perceived national security risks that have been the subject of prevailing media attention over the past several months. Based on advanced discussions with several prospective new customers, the outlook for our drone manufacturing business appears very promising.

“Given the projected growth of the drone package delivery market, which is forecasted to reach $27.4 billion by 2030 according to research firm MarketsandMarkets, we have determined that our long-term growth strategy must provide for additional opportunities in this high growth market. Our approach to continuing to successfully penetrate this market will require that we proceed with measured, well-calculated steps to ensure that the path we forge is smart, revenue-driven and financially disciplined.  We intend to evaluate and pursue select projects and investments that will permit AgEagle to properly assess inherent risks and rewards before we make significant commitments of growth capital to this focused strategy. As our efforts in this sector begin to take shape and gain greater traction, we look forward to providing much greater detail on anticipated milestones and our forward-moving progress.

Hemp Software Solutions

“With HempOverview’s registration module now operational in the State of Florida, we have been actively pursuing talks with other state and tribal departments of agriculture across the country in hopes of expanding the number of customers on the platform.  In addition, as part of our key growth objectives, we’ve committed to bringing additional states onboard, along with enhancing our footprint within the State of Florida. In fact as many states begin to open up as a result of COVID-19 shutdowns, we are already advancing discussions with them and hope to have good news to share about new wins in the near term.

“We have also initiated talks with other key stakeholders in the hemp industry which can benefit from AgEagle’s agricultural software development expertise and experience. These include large genetics/seed companies, processors, hemp testing labs and large commercial farming co-ops. In time, we look forward to forming numerous meaningful research and revenue-generating relationships that will help to further establish AgEagle as the hemp industry’s preferred, trusted source for best-in-class technology solutions. We believe much more will follow on this front in the coming months. 

Corporate Update

“Thanks to the efforts of AgEagle’s Chief Financial Officer, Nicole Fernandez-McGovern, who has spearheaded the negotiation and closing of recent large institutional financing rounds, our balance sheet has never been stronger. With nearly $13 million in cash, we now have the ability to respond quickly to opportunities that are well aligned with our underpinning strategic growth objectives.

“In closing, I’d like to make an important observation known. Over the past six weeks, it has been amazing to see how quickly members of our talented team, including our supportive board of directors, employees and strategic business partners, have all come together and formed  a cohesive force. We are focused, committed to excellence in all that we do, and dedicated to the success of AgEagle. Now that we have arrived at the dawning of ‘The Drone Age,’ much work must be done to ensure that our Company effectively claims our leadership stake and sets the standards by which all others must ascend to if they are to compete with us. Without question, we have the right team to make that happen and I am delighted to be among them.”

About AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.

Founded in 2010 and based in Kansas, AgEagle has earned distinction as one of the industry’s leading pioneers of technologically advanced drones and aerial imagery-based data collection and analytics solutions. We are trusted to help the world’s growers, consumer packaged goods companies and their supply chain partners, to proactively assess and manage the health of commercial crops, reduce the chemicals in produced foods and products and preserve and protect natural resources. In addition, we are at the leading edge of providing state and territorial departments of agriculture, growers and processors with registration, oversight, compliance/enforcement, and reporting solutions relating to the United States’ emerging hemp cultivation industry. In late 2019, we began pursuing expansion opportunities within the emerging Drone Logistics and Transportation market with the manufacture and assembly of UAVs designed to meet specifications for drones that are meant to carry packaged goods in urban and suburban areas. For more information, please visit www.ageagle.com.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CooterBrown

CooterBrown 17904

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

ALPP likes to buy a company, sell its building and lease the same building.  Some of their debt is also getting 10% interest or something stupid like that.  They said in the 10-Q they are going to issue more stock to keep the lights on a bit longer, hopefully there's a big pump before the dump when they issue the shares.

So, $0.07 is the exit point? That's not very gruntling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tailgate

Tailgate 3018

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

UAVS jumped almost $.50 (40%) at open - anyone still in this one?

New CEO sent out a letter to shareholders
 

 

I’ve stayed away after a small play with the big “news” they were announcing a couple months ago. I’ve still got it on watch and it’s still moving like a jumping bean.....but long term is interesting and a cheap price atm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
shakahorn

shakahorn 1625

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Blotto said:

Looks to me that the net profitability was due to some accounting provisions (change in value of derivative liability, whatever the fuck that is), but their loss from operations ($1.1 million) is about 3X what it was a year ago. Levered up to thier tits debt wise, and to be honest I can find no clear direction for the business. They own some HVAC/sheet metal companies, a couple of contract manufacturers, and seem to be involved in some blockchain boondoggle. Having spent time in a past life selling design software into the commercial HVAC market, its not a place you want to be when commercial construction slows down.

All that being said, at $0.06 per share your upside is higher than the downside, as evidenced by the price of $.31 within the last year. But as fudgenuggets alluded to above, they appear to need cash in a bad way as they lost $1M from operations in this quarter alone, and have $1M+ in interest expenses annually. 

You're not trying to apply business logic to a stonk, are you?  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tailgate

Tailgate 3018

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

$NKLA having a wild week right now. Up 25% today.

Decided to jump back in yesterday after it got hammered. Also doubled down on my EV plays of AYRO, BLNK and SOLO. Now, just to determine which ones will stay long.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Decided to jump back in yesterday after it got hammered. Also doubled down on my EV plays of AYRO, BLNK and SOLO. Now, just to determine which ones will stay long.

Tell me once you figure it out. I added more $NKLA yesterday as well and just keep watching $ALPP

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SuperSport

SuperSport 1332

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

If ALPP gets to 0.08, I'm dumping all my shares.  

Trying to drop this hot garbage, but (surprise!) nobody is buying. Equal parts hilarious and depressing to see sell orders close for like 50 incremental shares when unloading thousands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RCRanger03

RCRanger03 1049

Posted
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Did some murder @RCRanger03 over this stonk?

 

22 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Are you guys buying? I've got 10K share chunks out there for you to come get.

I actually added another 10k when to dropped into the .059s (maybe some of yalls), as I was pretty clear earlier in the thread though I'm in this for uplisting and I'm pretty dang confident in that. Since I called ALPP out in here I've scalped well over $3k off of the runs to .12 and .10, but I definitely missed the mark on the 10Q (which was fine, but not as gangbusters as hoped. Good movement on paying down debt was my major takeaway ) I have worries on how Q2 will look so hoping for some aquisition news between now and then. Also no PR follow up to the already delayed 10Q was very no bueno from a general investor confidence standpoint. IR says they're in the middle of renegotiating some debt and don't feel it's in the company's long term best interest.

EDIT: checked and the PR was just released

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606698/000144586620000971/alpp_8k.htm

To all those getting off the ALPP train, I understand, but also

see ya goodbye GIF

Edited by RCRanger03
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3325

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, SuperSport said:

Not a clue, just happy to be a beneficiary.

PM @Harrison Stafford

I'm in ALT at 3.35 and lovin' it.  Can't find any news, but this move must be due to FDA approval and BARDA funding.  Nothing else makes sense.  Of course, in the current environment, stonks go up when it doesn't make sense, so, who the hell knows?  In addition to being a COVID-19 play, ALT has an impressive list of drugs in the pipeline with looming approval for several of them this year.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23428

Posted
Posted (edited)

Not a typical “stonk” play, but the entire premise rests on Gilead's remdesivir taking off as a treatment for the ‘rona, so there is a fair amount of uncertainty.

In 2016, I picked up some shares of Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) at a cost average of $95. They are an intriguing pharma play for me because they don’t actually bring drugs to market, but instead license technology and sell ingredients to other pharma companies, who in turn absorb the costly process of bringing drugs to market. Their strategy is to have hundreds of shots on goal without having to fund any of them.

They had a hell of a run all the way up to $270 by mid-2018 largely on the strength of a product called Promacta. In early 2019 they sold their IP and royalty rights for Promacta for $800+ million dollars, which certainly curtailed their short term revenue prospects as it was their largest revenue generator. But they added $800 million to their warchest which is impressive considering that Promacta had only contributed $300 million dollars in revenue to LGND over the previous 10+ years. Regardless, revenue cratered and so did the stock price.....all the way down to $70-ish in Mar/Apr. 

Currently they have 100+ pharma companies that they partner with and 200 drug candidates in various phases of testing. Their largest revenue generator is Captisol, a product that enhances solubility of drug molecules:

 image.png.66a1ecffe6d0549789dfe125715380d1.png

Their most strategic partner for Captisol is Gilead who uses it in remdesivir. Gilead was largely responsible for the bump in Captisol sales  shown above (and this is Q1 before covid really got going). When you look at the share of LGND’s revenue that is attributable to Captisol, the following note from LGND CEO certainly peaks my interest: https://www.ligand.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/415/

Quote

Clinical work with remdesivir in COVID-19 has been promising as studies indicate the drug reduces the length of hospital stay and may lower the mortality rate in patients with severe disease. On May 1 remdesivir received an Emergency Use Authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and became the first new drug authorized as a treatment for COVID-19. The medical need was obvious, immense and growing. Then on June 1, Gilead announced additional data in patients with moderate disease showing again that remdesivir has the potential to meaningfully benefit patients.

We are working closely with Gilead to meet the urgent need for supply of this medicine. In light of Gilead’s public statements, we expect their Captisol requirements will increase significantly over the next couple of years, and we expect orders beyond that.

To meet global demand quickly, Gilead is establishing a consortium of generic pharmaceutical companies around the world to manufacture remdesivir. We have established initial agreements with four of those companies and are prepared to fill the full production and supply needs for all companies producing remdesivir.

Over the past five years, on average Ligand has supplied about 20 metric tons (MT) of Captisol per year, and we have reserved manufacturing capacity for at least 60 MT. Given the expected growth in demand, and to ensure our ability to meet all partners’ needs for the full range of products that utilize Captisol, we plan to deploy up to $60 million over the next year to increase our production capacity to as much as 500 MT per year.

Even if the projections are 5X reality, it should result in some pretty decent business for LGND that wasn’t on the radar 6 months ago. I fucked up by not getting out at $270, and ended up riding it all the way back down, but I also know that this stock can take off. I dig their business model, and think even without the ‘rona juicing Captisol revenue, they have a lot of interesting potential. Unfortunately the options market for LGND is limited without much volume, but I'm considering doubling down on my shares. 

TLDR – LGND may worth a look. Or I could just buy some TSLA and cash at out $5K a share in a couple of months in the spirit of this thread.  

Edited by Blotto
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Anastasis

Anastasis 23393

Posted
Posted

^ Intriguing, looks like they have a narrow market for specialty type drugs. I try to swear off biopharm and related stocks because somehow they fucking eat my lunch time after time again, but this might be worth a stonky play. 

 

I am on tilt right now, and thinking about playing my accounts off each other.  While I blow up my trading account on short positions (DOW short etfs and SPY puts) thinking about going ultra long in my relatively small roth and IRA accounts.  Basically trading money from taxed accounts to tax advantaged accounts. If I am going to blow up my shorts, might as well transfer into the other.  I think I have a diseased brain. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23428

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

^ Intriguing, looks like they have a narrow market for specialty type drugs. I try to swear off biopharm and related stocks because somehow they fucking eat my lunch time after time again, but this might be worth a stonky play. 

Its the only pharma stock I own, and really the reason why is their business model. Most companies with an IP/royalty business model are shit, but when you can find one with a legitimate niche in growing markets, they just kill it. Two of my most successful investments were ARM Holdings and Universal Display (OLED).

LGND has close to $1 billion in the bank and is usually profitable. They just keep developing/acquiring drug technologies and seeding the market with licensing deals hoping a few hit big. But they don't endure the obscene costs associated with getting new drugs through the approval process and their partners  now have a ton of shit in the pipeline. The success of remdesivir as a treatment could be a nice catalyst for earnings growth, but LGND is not dependent on that for its long term success. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sam Lin

Sam Lin 3541

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

While I blow up my trading account on short positions (DOW short etfs and SPY puts) thinking about going ultra long in my relatively small roth and IRA accounts.

Note that from a tax standpoint, you really want to do the opposite. Hold your long holds in your fully-taxed trading account so you pay the lower long-term capital gains tax rate on those gains, and do your short trades in Roth, so you don't have to worry about short-term vs long-term capital gains tax for your short trades.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Anastasis

Anastasis 23393

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Sam Lin said:

Note that from a tax standpoint, you really want to do the opposite. Hold your long holds in your fully-taxed trading account so you pay the lower long-term capital gains tax rate on those gains, and do your short trades in Roth, so you don't have to worry about short-term vs long-term capital gains tax for your short trades.

Just to be clear, I am using short and long in terms or market direction not in terms of how long I will hold a position. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

Posted
  • Author
Posted
8 hours ago, crash_davis said:

$35k -> $1.25M in 4~ months.

Damn if true. His trades are detailed so I'm assuming it's true. Dude killed it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/hnk0r9/35k_125m_in_4_months/

 

Was just coming to post that - #surlystonks needs a 7 figure gain story
I nominate RCRanger as tribute

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
RCRanger03

RCRanger03 1049

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Was just coming to post that - #surlystonks needs a 7 figure gain story
I nominate RCRanger as tribute

I started at 10% of that initial investment, but I'm around that now... if one of my shell plays pops I'll get there.

Work has been killing my stonklife lately. Turns out when you're training new hires flipping over to ToS is frowned upon 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3325

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Effin' ALT. 

Anyone taking profits or just riding this money printer to the moon?

 

Don’t think about selling ALT until the company receives BARDA funding.  That’s when to re-examine the lay of the land.  Until then, enjoy the ride with the knowledge there will be some profit taking.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...